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Tanking stock markets, collapsing world orders, devastating trade wars; economists with their hair ablaze are scrambling to keep up.

But as we try to make sense of Donald Trumps’s tariff tsunami, economic theory only goes so far. In the end this surely is about something more primal.

Power.

Understanding that may be crucial to how the world responds.

Yes, economics helps explain the impact. The world’s economy has after all shifted on its axis, the way it’s been run for decades turned on its head.

Instead of driving world trade, America is creating a trade war. We will all feel the impact.

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PM will ‘fight’ for deal with US

Donald Trump says he is settling scores, righting wrongs. America has been raped, looted and pillaged by the world trading system.

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But don’t be distracted by the hyperbole – and if you think this is about economics alone, you may be missing the point.

Above all, tariffs give Donald Trump power. They strike fear into allies and enemies, from governments to corporations.

This is a president who runs his presidency like a medieval emperor or mafia don.

It is one reason why since his election we have seen what one statesman called a conga line of sycophants make their way to the White House, from world leaders to titans of industry.

The conga line will grow longer as they now redouble their efforts hoping to special treatment from Trump’s tariffs. Sir Keir Starmer among them.

President Trump’s using similar tactics at home, deploying presidential power to extract concessions and deter dissent in corporate America, academia and the US media. Those who offer favours are spared punishment.

His critics say he seeks a form power for the executive or presidential branch of government that the founding fathers deliberately sought to prevent.

Whether or not that is true, the same playbook of divide and rule through intimidation can now be applied internationally. Thanks to tariffs

Each country will seek exceptions but on Trump’s terms. Those who retaliate may meet escalation.

This is the unforgiving calculus for governments including our own plotting their next moves.

The temptation will be to give Trump whatever he wants to spare their economies, but there is a jeopardy that compounds the longer this goes on.

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Chinese Vice President Han Zheng gestures to Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves following a photo session at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025. (Florence Lo/Pool Photo via AP)
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Could America’s traditional allies turn to China? Pic: AP

Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister who coined the conga line comparison, put it this way: “Pretty much all the international leaders I have seen that have sucked up to Trump have been run over. The reality is if you suck up to bullies, whether it’s global affairs or in the playground, you just get more bullying.”

Trading partners may be able to mitigate the impact of these tariffs through negotiation, but that may only encourage this unorthodox president to demand ever more?

Ultimately the world will need a more reliable superpower than that.

In the hands of such a president, America cannot be counted on.

When it comes to security, stability and prosperity, allies will need to fend for themselves.

And they will need new friends. If Washington can’t be relied on, Beijing beckons.

America First will, more and more, mean America on its own.

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Donald Trump sending ‘top of the line’ weapons to support NATO in Ukraine war

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Donald Trump sending 'top of the line' weapons to support NATO in Ukraine war

Donald Trump has agreed to send “top of the line weapons” to NATO to support Ukraine – and threatened Russia with “severe” tariffs if it doesn’t agree to end the war.

Speaking with NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte during a meeting at the White House, the US president said: “We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons, and they’re going to be paying for them.

“This is billions of dollars worth of military equipment which is going to be purchased from the United States, going to NATO, and that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.”

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Donald Trump and NATO secretary general Mark Rutte in the White House. Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Weapons being sent include surface-to-air Patriot missile systems and batteries, which Ukraine has asked for to defend itself from Russian air strikes.

Mr Trump also said he was “very unhappy” with Russia, and threatened “severe tariffs” of “about 100%” if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days.

The White House added that the US would put “secondary sanctions” on countries that buy oil from Russia if an agreement was not reached.

Later on Monday, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Mr Trump and said he was “grateful” for the US president’s “readiness to help protect our people’s lives”.

Analysis: Will Trump’s shift in tone make a difference?

As ever, there is confusion and key questions are left unanswered, but Donald Trump’s announcement on Ukraine and Russia today remains hugely significant.

His shift in tone and policy on Ukraine is stark. And his shift in tone (and perhaps policy) on Russia is huge.

Read Mark’s analysis here.

After criticising Vladimir Putin’s “desire to drag it out”, he said he appreciated “preparing a new decision on Patriots for Ukraine” – and added Kyiv is “working on major defence agreements with America”.

It comes after weeks of frustration from Mr Trump over Mr Putin’s refusal to agree to an end to the conflict, with the Russian leader telling the US president he would “not back down” from Moscow’s goals in Ukraine at the start of the month.

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Trump threatens Russia with ‘severe’ tariffs’

During the briefing on Monday, Mr Trump said he had held calls with Mr Putin where he would think “that was a nice phone call”, but then “missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city, and that happens three or four times”.

“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy,” he added.

Earlier this year, Mr Trump told Mr Zelenskyy “you’re gambling with World War Three” in a fiery White House meeting, and suggested Ukraine started the war against Russia as he sought to negotiate an end to the conflict.

After Mr Trump’s briefing, Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev said on Telegram: “If this is all that Trump had in mind to say about Ukraine today, then all the steam has gone out.”

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Meanwhile, Mr Zelenskyy met with US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, where they “discussed the path to peace” by “strengthening Ukraine’s air defence, joint production, and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe”.

He thanked both the envoy for the visit and Mr Trump “for the important signals of support and the positive decisions for both our countries”.

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Trump is clearly fed up with Putin – but will his shift in tone force Russia to the negotiating table?

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Trump is clearly fed up with Putin - but will his shift in tone force Russia to the negotiating table?

As ever, there is confusion and key questions are left unanswered, but Donald Trump’s announcement on Ukraine and Russia today remains hugely significant.

His shift in tone and policy on Ukraine is stark. And his shift in tone (and perhaps policy) on Russia is huge.

Ever since Mr Trump returned to the White House he has flatly refused to side with Ukraine over the Russian invasion.

He has variously blamed Ukraine for the invasion and blamed Joe Biden for the invasion, but has never been willing to accept that Russia is the aggressor and that Ukraine has a legitimate right to defend itself.

Today, all that changed. In a clear signal that he is fed up with Vladimir Putin and now fully recognises the need to help Ukraine defend itself, he announced the US will dramatically increase weapons supplies to Kyiv.

Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the White House. Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

But, in keeping with his transactional nature and in a reflection of the need to keep his isolationist “America-First” base on side, he has framed this policy shift as a multi-billion dollar “deal” in which America gains financially.

American weapons are to be “sold” to NATO partners in Europe who will then either transfer them to Ukraine or use them to bolster their own stockpiles as they transfer their own existing stocks to Kyiv.

“We’ve made a deal today,” the president said in the Oval Office. “We are going to be sending them weapons, and they are paying for them. We are manufacturing, they are going to be paying for it. Our meeting last month was very successful… these are wealthy nations.”

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What will Trump’s weapons deal mean for Ukraine?

This appears to be a clever framing of the “deal”. Firstly, America has always benefited financially by supplying weapons to Ukraine because much of the investment has been in American factories, American jobs and American supply chains.

While the details are not entirely clear, the difference now appears to be that the weapons would be bought by the Europeans or by NATO as an alliance.

The Americans are the biggest contributor to NATO, and so if the alliance is buying the weapons, America too will be paying, in part, for the weapons it is selling.

However, if the weapons are being bought by individual NATO members to replenish their own stocks, then it may be the case that the US is not paying.

NATO officials referred all questions on this issue to the White House, which has not yet provided clarity to Sky News.

It is also not yet clear what type of weapons will be made available and whether it will include offensive, as well defensive, munitions.

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Will Trump’s deal make a difference?

A key element of the package will likely be Patriot missile batteries, 10 to 15 of which are believed to be currently in Europe.

Under this deal, it is understood that some of them will be added to the six or so batteries believed to be presently in Ukraine. New ones would then be purchased from US manufacturers to backfill European stocks. A similar arrangement may be used for other weapons.

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The president also issued the Russian leader with an ultimatum, saying that Putin had 50 days to make a peace deal or else face 100% “secondary tariffs”. It’s thought this refers to a plan to tariff, or sanction, third countries that supply Russia with weapons and buy Russian oil.

This, the Americans hope, will force those countries to apply pressure on Russia.

But the 50-day kicking of the can down the road also gives Russia space to prevaricate. So, a few words of caution: first, the Russians are masters of prevarication. Second, Trump tends to let deadlines slip. And third, we all know Trump can flip-flop on his position repeatedly.

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‘Trump sides with the Ukrainian cause’

Maybe the most revealing aspect of all this came when a reporter asked Mr Trump: “How far are you willing to go if Putin sends more bombs in the coming days?”

“Don’t ask me questions like that…”

Mr Trump doesn’t really know what to do if Mr Putin continues to take him for a ride.

Mr Biden, before him, supplied Ukraine with the weapons to continue fighting.

If Mr Trump wants to end this, he may need to provide Ukraine with enough weapons to win.

But that would prolong, or even escalate, a war he wants to end now.

There’s the predicament.

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‘Disgusting’ antisemitic and racist messages posted on Elmo’s X page by hacker

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'Disgusting' antisemitic and racist messages posted on Elmo's X page by hacker

An X account for the Sesame Street character Elmo has been targeted by an unknown hacker who posted antisemitic and racist messages.

The profile is followed by more than 650,000 users on the social network – and usually posts upbeat and motivational updates.

Sunday’s messages, which have since been deleted, called for violence against Jews, insulted Donald Trump, and referred to alleged files related to Jeffrey Epstein.

In a statement, Sesame Workshop said the X account has now been secured – and described the posts uploaded to Elmo’s page as “disgusting”.

This is the latest controversy to befall Elon Musk’s platform in recent days.

Last week, X’s AI chatbot Grok also produced content with antisemitic tropes, which were later removed and denounced as “inappropriate”.

Musk purchased the website, formerly known as Twitter, back in 2022 – with extremist content increasing against a backdrop of less moderation.

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The Anti-Defamation League, a US organisation that fights antisemitism, said: “It’s appalling that Elmo’s official account, known for spreading kindness, was hacked solely to spread violent antisemitism.”

“Antisemitism on social media fosters the normalisation of anti-Jewish hate online and offline – and contributes to an increasingly threatening environment for Jewish people everywhere.”

Elmo’s account has not posted since the hack.

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