Billionaire investor would ‘not be surprised’ if Trump postpones tariffs
Crypto-friendly billionaire investor Bill Ackman is considering the possibility that US President Donald Trump may pause the implementation of his controversial proposed tariffs on April 7.
“One would have to imagine that President Donald Trump’s phone has been ringing off the hook. The practical reality is that there is insufficient time for him to make deals before the tariffs are scheduled to take effect,” Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, said in an April 5 X post.
Trump may postpone tariffs to make more deals, says Ackman
“I would, therefore, not be surprised to wake up Monday with an announcement from the President that he was postponing the implementation of the tariffs to give him time to make deals,” Ackman added.
On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries, which took effect on April 5. Harsher reciprocal tariffs on trading partners with which the US has the largest trade deficits are scheduled to kick in on April 9.
Ackman — who famously said “crypto is here to stay” after the FTX collapse in November 2022 — said Trump captured the attention of the world and US trading partners, backing the tariffs as necessary after what he called an “unfair tariff regime” that hurt US workers and economy “over many decades.”
Following Trump’s announcement on April 2, the US stock market shed more value during the April 4 trading session than the entire crypto market is currently worth. The fact that crypto held up better than the US stock market caught the attention of both crypto industry supporters and skeptics.
Source: Cameron Winklevoss
Prominent crypto voices such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss also recently showed their support for Trump’s tariffs.
Related: Trump tariffs squeeze already struggling Bitcoin miners — Braiins exec
Ackman said a pause would be a logical move by Trump — not just to allow time for closing potential deals but also to give companies of all sizes “time to prepare for changes.” He added:
“The risk of not doing so is that the massive increase in uncertainty drives the economy into a recession, potentially a severe one.”
Ackman said April 7 will be “one of the more interesting days” in US economic history.
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A growing demand for US dollar-tied crypto stablecoins could help push down the interest rate, says US Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran.
The Donald Trump-appointed Miran told the BCVC summit in New York on Friday that the dollar-pegged crypto tokens could be “putting downward pressure” on the neutral rate, or r-star, that doesn’t stimulate or impede the economy.
If the neutral rate drops, then the central bank would also react by dropping its interest rate, he said.
The total current market cap of all stablecoins sits at $310.7 million according to CoinGecko data, and Miran suggested that Fed research found the market could grow to up to $3 trillion in value in the next five years.
“My thesis is that stablecoins are already increasing demand for US Treasury bills and other dollar-denominated liquid assets by purchasers outside the United States and that this demand will continue growing,” Miran said.
“Stablecoins may become a multitrillion-dollar elephant in the room for central bankers.”
Organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, have warned that stablecoins pose a threat to traditional financial assets and services, as they could potentially compete for customers. US banking groups have also urged Congress to tighten oversight of stablecoins with yield, arguing they could attract would-be bank users.
Related: How TradFi banks are advancing new stablecoin models
Regulation to pave the way
During his speech, Miran praised the GENIUS Act for setting out clear guidelines and consumer protections, as he indicated that the regulatory framework will play a key role in spurring broader adoption of stablecoins.
“While I tend to view new regulations skeptically, I’m greatly encouraged by the GENIUS Act. This regulatory apparatus for stablecoins establishes a level of legitimacy and accountability congruent with holding traditional dollar assets,” he said, adding:
“For the purposes of monetary policy, the most important aspect of the GENIUS Act is that it requires U.S.-domiciled issuers to maintain reserves backed on at least a one-to-one basis in safe and liquid US dollar–denominated assets.”
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The crypto market could soon see some much-needed relief after the US Senate reached an agreement on a three-part budget deal to end the government shutdown, Politico reports.
Pending legislation to fund the US government has more than enough support to pass the 60-vote threshold, Politico reported on Sunday, citing two people familiar with the matter.
It was Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s 15th attempt to win Democratic support for a House-approved bill, putting the record 40-day government shutdown within reach of being lifted.
An official vote is still needed to finalize the agreement.
Ongoing uncertainty over when the US government would reopen has been a key factor holding back Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market from mounting a rebound.
Bitcoin initially rallied to a new high of $126,080 six days into the government shutdown on Oct. 6, but has since fallen over 17% to $104,370, CoinGecko data shows.
Bitcoin’s fall over the past month saw it drop by double-digit percentage points on Oct. 10 after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China sent shockwaves throughout the markets.
Bitcoin rallied 266% after last government shutdown lifted
The last US government shutdown occurred between late December 2018 and late January the following year in Trump’s first term.
After it ended on Jan. 25, 2019, Bitcoin rose over 265% from $3,550 to $13,000 over the next five months.
Prediction markets back shutdown to end this week
Bettors on prediction market Polymarket are backing that the government shutdown will be lifted on Thursday, with the market showing a 54% chance it will happen between Tuesday and Friday.
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Those odds were just 27% a day ago.
Odds on competitor platform Kalshi are similar, estimating the government shutdown will end on Friday, 44 days into the shutdown.
It comes as Trump announced on Sunday that most Americans will receive a $2,000 dividend from tariff revenue.
Approximately 85% of adults will be eligible, excluding high-income earners, he said.
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