France needs to sort its political mess – or populist winds blowing from the US will strengthen
Contemplating the turmoil sown by the return of President Trump, nobody could deny that the results of leadership elections in major nations matter to the rest of the world.
Take just the members of the G7 – so-called rich, industrialised democracies. Italy elected Giorgia Meloni in 2022, confirming the rise of the far-right. She was not only Italy’s first female leader, she was also the first from a neo-fascist party since Mussolini.
The arrival of Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer changed the complexion of politics in the US and the UK last year. Germany elected a more hawkish chancellor in waiting this spring.
Barring accidents, the next potentially transformative election in what used to be called the “Western alliance” will not be for two years.
France is due to elect a new president to succeed Emmanuel Macron in the summer of 2027. The contest is already plagued by undercurrents of disruption, conflict between politicians and the law, and populism – similar to the fires burning elsewhere in the US and Europe.
This week French judges banned the frontrunner to win the presidency from running for office for the next five years. It looked as though they have knocked Marine Le Pen out of the race.
Nobody, least of all her, the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), knows what is going to happen next in French politics.
In opinion polls just over half of the French population, between 54% and 57%, agreed that justice had run its course. “The law is the same for everyone,” President Macron declared.
After lengthy consideration by a tribunal of three judges, Le Pen and nine other former RN MEPs were found guilty of illegally siphoning off some €4.4m (£3.7m) of funds from the European Parliament for political operations in France, not for personal gain.
Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban and four years in prison, not to begin before the appeals process had been concluded. Even then that sentence in France would normally amount to two years’ house arrest wearing an ankle alarm.
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Marine Le Pen hits out at ban
French presidents, such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, have been convicted before. Controversy is flaring because Le Pen was given an extra punishment: the immediate ban on running for political office, starting this week.
Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, her second in command at RN, likened the ban to a “nuclear bomb” and a “political death penalty”. Speaking in L’Assemblee Nationale, of which she is still a member, Le Pen identified herself with Alexei Navalny, the dissident leader murdered in Russia, and Ekrem Imamoglu, the recently imprisoned Turkish opposition leader and mayor of Istanbul.
The ban was imposed at the discretion of the chief judge Benedicte de Perthuis, a former business consultant, Francois Bayrou, France’s Macronist prime minister admitted he was “troubled” by the verdict. Not surprisingly perhaps from him, since the prosecution is appealing against verdicts in a similar case of political embezzlement, in which Bayrou’s party was found guilty but he was acquitted, escaping any possibility of a ban.
Bayrou is expected to be a candidate for the presidency. Meanwhile, RN has the power to bring down his government since it is the largest party in the Assembly, with 37%, but was kept out of power by a coalition.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. File pic: AP
Populist forces on both sides of the Atlantic rushed to support Marine Le Pen. Matteo Salvini in Italy, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Vladimir Putin‘s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov all denounced what they saw as a “violation of democratic norms”. Hungary’s Viktor Orban said on X “Je suis Marine Le Pen”. Orban’s post came on the same platform Donald Trump Jr posted that “JD Vance was right about everything”, a reference to the US vice president’s speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he claimed Europe was silencing populist opposition.
President Trump weighed in: “The Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech… it is the same ‘playbook’ that was used against me.”
Le Pen has called for bans and tough sentences for corrupt politicians from other parties. In France, mainstream commentators are accusing her of hypocrisy and “Trumpisme” for attacking the courts now.
They also allege, or rather hope, that RN’s anger is endangering Marine Le Pen’s drive to make her party respectable with her so-called “wear a neck-tie strategy”, designed to dispel the loutish, racist image of her father’s Front National.
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Le Pen leaves court after guilty verdict
For all the protests, justice and politics are now inextricably mixed in France. A ban from political campaigning would be pointless for most convicts, who have no political ambitions.
Any suggestion that Le Pen was just being treated like any other citizen was dispelled when it was announced that her appeal would be speeded up to take place next summer. The president of the court de cassation conceded: “Justice knows how to adjust to circumstances… an election deadline in this case.”
The ban could be lifted in time to give Le Pen a year to stand for the presidency. At this stage, a full acquittal seems unlikely, given the weight of evidence against RN. That is awkward for her and her party because, presumably, she would be campaigning while under house arrest.
The best course of action for 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s apparent successor, or “Dauphin”, would be to stick with her now. He would gain little if he split RN by insisting she is fatally wounded.
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If she loses her appeal in a year’s time, his loyalty and indignation would be likely to boost his candidacy. Conventional wisdom is that without a lift he may be slick, but is too callow and too square to stand a chance of becoming president in 2027.
The far right in France is no different from the far right elsewhere – prone to internal rivalries and in-fighting.
The craggy intellectual Eric Zemmour came fourth in the first round in the last presidential contest in 2022. Back then he had the support of Marion Marechal-Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s flighty niece. The two have since fallen out and may separately bid to carry the far-right torch.
Macron is riding high as an international statesman but he is unpopular at home. Even if he wanted to, he cannot stand again because of term limits.
His attempts to spawn an heir apparent have failed. The 34-year-old prime minister Gabriel Attal led Ensemble to crushing defeat in last year’s parliamentary elections.
Current prime minister Bayrou, and former prime minister Edouard Philippe, will probably make a bid for the centre-right vote. Bruno Retailleau, the trenchantly hardline interior minister, looks a stronger candidate for the Gaullist Les Republicains.
Read more:
Le Pen’s political career is in tatters
European far-right welcomes Trump 2.0
In the last presidential contest, Jean-Luc Melenchon of the hard-left La France Insoumise came third. He may fancy his chances of getting into the final two in 2027 against a right-wing candidate, unless the Socialists get it together. Or perhaps he may let through two finalists from the right and the extreme right.
It is a mess.
France and Europe need effective leadership from a French president. The unnecessary judicial suspension of Marine Le Pen’s candidacy has simply generated uncertainty. Her supporters are outraged and her foes no longer know who they are fighting against.
The French establishment thinks it will all blow over. Just as likely the controversy in France will strengthen the populist winds blowing across the continent and the US.
World
‘Have the meeting now!’: Trump says Ukraine should ‘immediately’ agree to direct talks with Russia
US President Donald Trump has demanded that Ukraine should “immediately” agree to direct talks with Russia in a bid to end the war.
It comes after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his team were “ready to meet” Russian representatives following Vladimir Putin suggestion of peace talks, subject to an unconditional ceasefire starting on Monday.
Russia‘s president put forward the proposal for talks in Istanbul on Thursday after European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer threatened him with fresh sanctions if Russia failed to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday.
Analysis:
Why calls for Ukraine talks are likely a delaying tactic from Putin
However, in a post on his Truth Social platform on Sunday, Mr Trump said he was “starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin”.
He urged them to accept the meeting invitation “immediately”, adding “have the meeting now”.
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Putin’s call for peace talks genuine?
Mr Trump wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the bloodbath.
“Ukraine should agree to this, immediately. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the US will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly.
“I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America.
“Have the meeting now!”
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Kremlin: ‘We don’t share Starmer’s view’
Shortly after Mr Trump’s post, Mr Zelenskyy posted on X saying: “We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy.
“There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses.”
When Mr Putin first suggested the talks, Mr Trump hailed it “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine” and said he would “work with both sides to make sure it happens”.
Read more from Sky News:
Pope Leo calls for Ukraine peace
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said he “fully supported” Mr Putin’s proposal and was ready to host the talks, after the two leaders spoke over the phone on Sunday.
But security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Matt Barbet there is a “long way between now and Thursday” and a “fair bit of brinkmanship” going on.
He said even if the talks do go ahead, “the chances are they’ll extend over a long period and there won’t be a ceasefire as a result of them, and the Russians will keep playing this out”.
European leaders hold call with Mr Trump. Pic: Number 10
Mr Putin’s counteroffer of talks came after Sir Keir, Mr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, recently elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met in Kyiv.
The leaders said they had secured Mr Trump’s backing after briefing him on the progress made on the so-called “coalition of the willing” plans in a 20-minute phone call.
World
Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes
Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.
Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.
Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.
Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.
The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.
The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.
‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.
In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.
The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.
This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke
India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.
Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.
LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.
Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”
Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.
TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.
Many of the accounts are linked to each other.
Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”
Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.
One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.
The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username
Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.
Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar
In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.
The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.
Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”
Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.
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Anger in Pakistan after India strikes
India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.
MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”
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Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”
Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.
On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his country is “ready to meet” Russian representatives after Vladimir Putin suggested peace talks in Istanbul from Thursday.
Russia‘s president put forward the proposal as European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer threatened him with fresh sanctions if Russia failed to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday.
Reacting to Mr Putin’s suggestion, US President Donald Trump said it was “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine” and he would “work with both sides to make sure it happens”.
Mr Zelenskyy has also welcomed the proposal, but reiterated his call for a ceasefire.
He said: “It is a positive sign that the Russians have finally begun to consider ending the war. The entire world has been waiting for this for a very long time. And the very first step in truly ending any war is a ceasefire.
“There is no point in continuing the killing even for a single day. We expect Russia to confirm a ceasefire – full, lasting, and reliable – starting tomorrow, May 12th, and Ukraine is ready to meet.”
On Saturday, the prime minister met the Ukrainian president alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv.
Announcing the 30-day ceasefire proposal, the leaders said they had secured the backing of Mr Trump after briefing him on the progress made on the so-called “coalition of the willing” plans in a 20-minute phone call.
What Trump does next is crucial
Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing for time and may have been caught on the hop by European leaders, backed by US President Donald Trump, demanding a 30-day ceasefire during their visit to Kyiv yesterday.
Russia’s proposal of talks in Istanbul on Thursday appears hurriedly conceived, announced as it was in the early hours of the morning by Putin.
There is an added symbolism to his suggestion of Istanbul as a venue. Russia has long blamed Ukraine for walking away from peace talks in the same city in 2022.
The key thing is that diplomatic movement of sorts is happening.
Ukraine and its European colleagues want to capitalise on Trump’s renewed enthusiasm for a ceasefire and his potential scepticism of how ready Putin actually is to make peace.
The Europeans will hope this isn’t drawn into a protracted period of negotiations, or simply talking about the idea of negotiations.
What President Trump does next will be crucial.
Speaking at the Kremlin in the early hours of Sunday, Mr Putin did not directly address the proposal but instead offered to restart peace talks Russia and Ukraine held in 2022.
“We propose the Kyiv authorities resume the negotiations they interrupted at the end of 2022… to resume direct negotiations… without any preconditions… to begin without delay next Thursday 15 May in Istanbul,” he said.
Speaking to Sky News Russia correspondent Ivor Bennett after the statement, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow does not “share the view of Starmer”.
“We think that the seriousness is to propose negotiations,” he said, denying the move was a delaying tactic.
Mr Peskov said there had to be negotiations to find a way for a ceasefire, adding: “A simplistic approach to a ceasefire is inappropriate.”
European leaders including Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold call with Donald Trump. Pic: Number 10
Russia’s own unilateral three-day ceasefire, declared for the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany, expired on Saturday, and Ukraine said Russian forces have repeatedly violated it.
After the summit in Kyiv, Sir Keir said: “All of us here, together with the US, are calling Putin out.
“So we are clear, all five leaders here – all the leaders of the meeting we just had with the coalition of the willing – an unconditional ceasefire, rejecting Putin’s conditions, and clear that if he turns his back on peace, we will respond.
“Working with President Trump, with all our partners, we will ramp up sanctions and increase our military aid for Ukraine’s defence to pressure Russia back to the table.”
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During Mr Putin’s statement on Sunday, he insisted he would support peace talks, adding: “We are committed to serious negotiations with Ukraine.”
He told reporters: “Their purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, to establish a long-term, lasting peace.
“We do not rule out that during these negotiations it will be possible to agree on some new truces, a new ceasefire.”
Read more:
Will Trump force Putin to comply with ceasefire?
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia argue over ceasefire breaches
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Responding to Mr Putin’s proposal, Mr Macron said the Russian leader was “looking for a way forward, but he still has a desire to buy time”.
Mr Putin’s proposed negotiations are “a first step, but they are not sufficient,” he told French broadcaster BFM.
“An unconditional ceasefire is not preceded by negotiations, by definition.”
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