Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs last week spooked the markets.
Stock markets tumbled on Monday, with most US markets down and stocks in Hong Kong falling 13.2%, their worst day since 1997 during the Asian financial crisis.
There was slight growth in Asian and UK markets on Tuesday, but recovery is still a way off after a steep decline in reaction to Mr Trump’s tariffs on goods imported to the US, which he announced last week.
US economists at Goldman Sachs raised their assessment of the odds that America will tip into recession to 45%, up from 35% the week before.
And if most tariffs aren’t reduced or negotiated away, “we expect to change our forecast to a recession”, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in an analyst note.
Other economists are raising similar alarms, with JPMorgan putting the odds of a US and global recession at 60% and projecting inflation will reach 4.4% by the end of this year, up from 2.8% currently.
How do you know if a recession has begun?
The most commonly used definition of a recession is at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction – or “negative growth” – in gross domestic product (GDP).
To break that down, GDP is the total value of goods and services produced over a specific time period. When it goes up, the economy is considered to be doing well.
When it goes down – negative growth or economic contraction – it’s not doing well. And when it doesn’t do well for six months, it counts as a recession.
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4:04
Trump: ‘No pause to tariffs’
In the US, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the body which officially declares a recession – taking in a variety of economic data, not just GDP, defining it as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months”.
Currently, there are no signs the US or global economy is in recession, and it remains unknown if tariffs will have a large enough impact to knock America’s into reverse.
But it is this uncertainty that has the potential to cause the most damage.
“People are all at sea,” Sky News Business Live presenter Darren McCaffrey told the Sky News Daily podcast.
“No one can quite work out whether President Trump wants a genuine rewiring of globalisation, what the consequences of that will be for the US and globally, and that these tariffs will remain permanent, or whether this is part of a negotiating tactic.
“That’s what no one can work out. That uncertainty is difficult, and it is going to cause damage.”
Stockbroker Russ Mould added that the markets are hoping the Trump administration is planning to use tariffs as a way of extracting better trade deals from existing trade partners. If this happens, it would help restore global trade to what’s been the standard in recent decades.
Image: Pic: Reuters
What could a global recession mean?
If the US and the rest of the world falls into recession – even if the UK doesn’t – it will “fundamentally mean we will all be poorer in the future,” McCaffrey said.
He added that Britain especially has not had a prolonged period of serious economic growth for a long time – held back by the financial crisis in 2008, the shock of Brexit, COVID, the Ukraine war and now US tariffs.
However, it is not all doom and gloom.
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“The markets will always find a way,” McCaffrey says.
“The US is the world’s largest economy, but it is only 13% of global trade. Countries like China, Vietnam, Cambodia and others with high tariffs will find new markets. And one of the places that benefit from that in the short-medium term could be the UK.
“It will also force big wealthy blocs – the biggest of which is the EU – to look for new markets. Canada is also suggesting they would like a trade deal with the UK.
“This will cause damage to the US economy more than anywhere else, because other countries will want to be more reliant on more stable partners. As always with economics, there are winners and losers and ultimately the market will find a place for lots of these goods.”
How could the UK best prepare for potential recession?
Instead of retaliatory tariffs, the UK is looking to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, Russ Mould explained, calling that “the UK’s primary goal”.
But if the UK is stuck with tariffs in the long-term, Mr Mould said it would be wise to consider deals with other countries.
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3:30
PM makes first post-tariff moves
He said: “Statistics show that 87% of global trade does not involve US, so maybe you can look elsewhere for trade deals with countries who also feel they have been badly treated by tariffs. I would guess India would be at the top of that list.
“The question is how quickly can trade deals be struck, given the fact the UK has been casting the net around for the last five years without a huge amount of progress.”
Mr Mould added that the recipe for economic growth in any market is the growth of the labour force coupled with productivity growth.
“In terms of productivity, [leaders] are probably looking at targeted tax breaks for investment and to stimulate research and development. Other positive things for long-term benefits include examining infrastructure and transport access,” Mr Mould said.
“In terms of encouraging labour participation, you are into the deep waters of whether it is education or tax breaks for child care. All of those are very long-term solutions to a potential near-term challenge.”
The fast food chain LEON has taken a swipe at “unsustainable taxes” while moving to secure its future through the appointment of an administrator, leaving hundreds of jobs at risk.
The loss-making company, bought back from Asda by its co-founder John Vincent in October, said it had begun a process that aimed to bring forward the closure of unprofitable sites. It was to form part of a turnaround plan to restore the brand to its roots around natural foods.
It was unclear at this stage how many of its 71 restaurants – 44 of them directly owned – and approximately 1,100 staff would be affected by the plans for the so-called Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA).
“The restructuring will involve the closure of several of LEON’s restaurants and a number of job losses”, a statement said.
“The company has created a programme to support anyone made redundant.”
It added: “LEON and Quantuma intend to spend the next few weeks discussing the plans with its landlords and laying out options for the future of the Company.
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“LEON then plans to emerge from administration as a leaner business that can return to its founding values and principles more easily.
“In the meantime, all the group’s restaurants remain open, serving customers as usual. The LEON grocery business will not be affected in any way by the CVA.”
Mr Vincent said. “If you look at the performance of LEON’s peers, you will see that everyone is facing challenges – companies are reporting significant losses due to working patterns and increasingly unsustainable taxes.”
Mr Vincent sold the chain to Asda in 2021 for £100m but it struggled, like rivals, to make headway after the pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed the public health emergency.
The hospitality sector has taken aim at the chancellor’s business rates adjustments alongside heightened employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels, accusing the government of placing jobs and businesses in further peril.
Overall, water firms face a sector-wide revenue reduction of nearly £309m as a result of Ofwat’s determination. Thames Water’s £187.1m cut is the largest revenue reduction.
This will take effect from next year and up to 2030 as part of water companies’ regulator-approved five-year spending and investment plans.
The downward revenue revision has been made as Ofwat believes the companies will perform better than first thought and therefore require less money.
More on Thames Water
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Better financial performance is ultimately good news for customers.
The change published on Wednesday is a technical update; the initial revenue projections published in December 2024 were based on projected financial performance but after financial results were published in the summer and Ofwat was able to apply these figures.
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1:32
Is Thames Water a step closer to nationalisation?
Thames Water and industry body Water UK have been contacted for comment.
A huge takeover that would rock the entertainment industry looks imminent, with Netflix and Paramount fighting over Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).
Streaming giant Netflix announced it had agreed a $72bn (£54bn) deal for WBD’s film and TV studios on 5 December, only for Paramount to sweep in with a $108.4bn (£81bn) bid several days later.
The takeover saga isn’t far removed from a Hollywood plot; with multi-billionaires negotiating in boardrooms, politicians on all sides expressing their fears for the public and the US president looming large, expected to play a significant role.
“Whichever way this deal goes, it will certainly be one of the biggest media deals in history. It will shake up the established TV and film norms and will have global implications,” Sky News’ US correspondent Martha Kelner said on the Trump 100 podcast.
So what do we know about the bids, why are they controversial – and how is Donald Trump involved?
Why is Warner Bros up for sale?
WBD’s board first announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October after a summer of hushed speculation.
Back in June, WBD announced its plan to split into two companies: one for its TV, film studios, and HBO Max streaming services, and one for the Discovery element of the business, primarily comprising legacy TV channels that air cartoons, news, and sports.
It came amid the cable industry’s continued struggles at the hands of streaming services, and CEO David Zaslav suggested splitting into two companies would give WBD’s brands the “sharper focus and strategic flexibility they need to compete most effectively in today’s evolving media landscape”.
The company’s long-term strategic initiatives have also been stifled by its estimated $35bn of debt. This wasn’t helped by the WarnerMedia and Discovery merger in 2022, which led to it becoming Warner Bros Discovery.
Image: WBD’s announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October. Pic: iStock
What we know about the bids
The $72bn bid from Netflix is for the first division of the business, which would give it the rights to worldwide hits like the Harry Potter and Game of Thrones franchises – and Warner Bros’ extensive back catalogue of movies.
If the deal were to happen, it would not be finalised until the split is complete, and Discovery Global, including channels like CNN, will not form part of the merger.
Paramount’s $108.4bn offer is what’s known as a hostile bid. This means it went directly to shareholders with a cash offer for the entirety of the company, asking them to reject the deal with Netflix.
Image: Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix. Pic: Reuters
This deal would involve rival US news channels CBS and CNN being brought under the same parent company.
Netflix’s cash and stock deal is valued at $27.75 (£20.80) per Warner share, giving it a total enterprise value of $82.7bn (£62bn), including debt.
But Paramount says its deal will pay $30 (£22.50) cash per share, representing $18bn (£13.5bn) more in cash than its rivals are offering.
Paramount claims to have tried several times to bid for WBD through its board, but said it launched the hostile bid after hearing of Netflix’s offer because the board had “never engaged meaningfully”.
Image: David Zaslav, CEO and president of Warner Bros Discovery. Pic: Reuters
Why are politicians and experts concerned?
The US government will have a big say on who ultimately buys WBD, as Paramount and Netflix will likely face the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Antitrust Division, a federal agency which scrutinises business deals to ensure fair competition.
Republicans and Democrats have voiced concerns over the potential monopolisation of streaming and the impact it would have on cinemas if Netflix – already the world’s biggest streaming service by market share – were to take over WBD.
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Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren said the deal “would create one massive media giant with control of close to half of the streaming market – threatening to force Americans into higher subscription prices and fewer choices over what and how they watch, while putting American workers at risk”.
Similarly, Representative Pramila Jayapal, who co-chairs the House Monopoly Busters Caucus, called the deal a “nightmare,” adding: “It would mean more price hikes, ads, and cookie-cutter content, less creative control for artists, and lower pay for workers.”
Netflix’s business model of prioritising streaming over cinemas has caused consternation in Hollywood.
The screen actors union SAG-AFTRA said the merger “raises many serious questions” for actors, while the Directors Guild of America said it also had “concerns”.
Experts suggest there’s less of a concern with the Paramount deal when it comes to a streaming monopoly, because its Paramount+ service is smaller and has less of an international footprint than Netflix.
And while Mr Trump himself will not be directly involved, he appointed those in the DOJ Antitrust Division, and they have the authority to block or challenge takeovers.
However, his potential influence isn’t sitting well with some experts due to his ties with key players on the Paramount side.
Image: Larry Ellison (centre left) in the White House with Trump. Pic: Reuters
Paramount is run by David Ellison, the son of the Oracle tech billionaire (and world’s second-richest man) Larry Ellison, who is a close ally of Mr Trump.
Additionally, Affinity Partners, an investment firm run by Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, would be investing in the deal.
Also participating would be funds controlled by the governments of three unnamed Persian Gulf countries, widely reported as Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar – countries the Trump family company has struck deals with this year.
Image: David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance. Pic: Reuters
Critics of the Trump’s administration has accused it of being transactional, with the president known to hold grudges over those who are critical of him, however, Mr Trump told reporters on 8 December that he has not spoken with Mr Kushner about WBD, adding that neither Netflix nor Paramount “are friends of mine”.
John Mayo, an antitrust expert at Georgetown University, suggested the scrutiny by the Antitrust Division would be serious whichever offer is approved by shareholders, and that he thinks experts there will keep partisanship out of their decisions despite the politically charged atmosphere.
What happens next?
WBD must now advise shareholders whether Paramount’s offer constitutes a superior offer by 22 December.
If the company decides that Paramount’s offer is superior, Netflix would have the opportunity to match or beat it.
WBD would have to pay Netflix a termination fee of $2.8bn (£2.10bn) if it decides to scrap the deal.
Shareholders have until 8 January 2026 to vote on Paramount’s offer.