Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Published

7 months ago

April 8, 2025

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Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.

Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.

However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.

“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:

“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”

“Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said.

China retaliates with new tariffs

Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term.

In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.

China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.

Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely

As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.

Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.

Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.

“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:

“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”

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Politics

Kraken co-CEO warns UK rules meant to protect users now punish them: FT

Published

1 hour ago

November 12, 2025

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Kraken co-CEO warns UK rules meant to protect users now punish them: FT

Arjun Sethi, the co-CEO of major crypto exchange Kraken, criticized the United Kingdom’s crypto regulations, which he believes hinder services for their customers.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Sethi said that “in the UK today, if you go to any crypto website, including Kraken’s, you see the equivalent to a cigarette box.” He suggested that the disclaimers have a significant impact on customer experience.

Sethi suggested that disclosures slow users down and that, because of the importance of speed in crypto trading, “it’s worse for customers.” He concluded that “disclosures are important […] but if there are 14 steps, it’s worse.”

The UK Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) updated financial promotion regime came into force in October 2023. It introduced a “cooling-off” period for first-time crypto investors and requires firms to assess whether users have sufficient knowledge and experience before trading.

Sethi said that the rules may prompt customers to avoid investing in crypto altogether, potentially leading to missed potential gains. The FCA defended the rules, noting that “some consumers may make an informed decision that investing in crypto is not right for them — that is our rules working as intended.”

Kraken, UK Government, Cryptocurrency Exchange, United Kingdom — Example of disclaimer from the Kraken website. Source: Kraken

The UK is slowly opening to crypto

Despite frustrations with the FCA, the UK appears to be moving toward a broader alignment with the United States on digital-asset oversight.

Lisa Cameron, a former United Kingdom Member of Parliament and founder of the UK-US Crypto Alliance, said she believes a joint “sandbox” between the UK and the US is in development to align their crypto markets.

She came to this conclusion after discussion with US Senators and regulators and expects the sandbox’s purpose to be to “iron out some of this in terms of passporting” for crypto licenses between the UK and the US.

On Monday, the Bank of England published a consultation paper proposing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. The new legislation is focused on sterling-denominated “systemic stablecoins” widely used in payments, similar to the US’s GENIUS Act.

UK looks to the US for an example on crypto

A crypto collaboration between the UK and the US is not a new phenomenon. September reports noted that treasury authorities in the US and UK created a transatlantic task force to explore “short-to-medium term collaboration on digital assets.” Also in September, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed how the two nations could strengthen their coordination on crypto.

September also saw UK trade groups urge the UK government to include blockchain technology in a technology collaboration with the US program known as “Tech Bridge.” A joint letter by the organization warned that “excluding digital assets from the UK-US Tech Bridge would be a missed opportunity,” and that it “risks leaving Britain on the sidelines.”

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