Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Published

4 months ago

April 8, 2025

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Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.

Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.

However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.

“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:

“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”

“Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said.

China retaliates with new tariffs

Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term.

In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.

China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.

Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely

As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.

Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.

Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.

“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:

“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

Politics

25% of young children and pregnant women malnourished in Gaza, charity says, as PM vows to fly critical medical cases to UK

Published

5 hours ago

July 26, 2025

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25% of young children and pregnant women malnourished in Gaza, charity says, as PM vows to fly critical medical cases to UK

A charity has warned 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are now malnourished, with Sir Keir Starmer vowing to evacuate children who need “critical medical assistance” to the UK.

MSF, also known as Doctors Without Borders, said Israel’s “deliberate use of starvation as a weapon” has reached unprecedented levels – with patients and healthcare workers both fighting to survive.

It claimed that, at one of its clinics in Gaza City, rates of severe malnutrition in children under five have trebled over the past two weeks – and described the lack of food and water on the ground as “unconscionable”.

The charity also criticised the high number of fatalities seen at aid distribution sites, with one British surgeon accusing IDF soldiers of shooting civilians “almost like a game of target practice”.

MSF’s deputy medical coordinator in Gaza, Dr Mohammed Abu Mughaisib, said: “Those who go to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s food distributions know that they have the same chance of receiving a sack of flour as they do of leaving with a bullet in their head.”

The UN also estimates that Israeli forces have killed more than 1,000 people seeking food – the majority near the militarised distribution sites of the US-backed aid distribution scheme run by the GHF.

In a statement on Friday, the IDF had said it “categorically rejects the claims of intentional harm to civilians”, and reports of incidents at aid distribution sites were “under examination”.

The GHF has also previously disputed that these deaths were connected with its organisation’s operations, with director Johnnie Moore telling Sky News: “We just want to feed Gazans. That’s the only thing that we want to do.”

Israel says it has let enough food into Gaza and has accused the UN of failing to distribute it, in what the foreign ministry has labelled as “a deliberate ploy” to defame the country.

‘Humanitarian catastrophe must end’

In a video message posted on X late last night, Sir Keir Starmer condemned the scenes in Gaza as “appalling” and “unrelenting” – and said “the images of starvation and desperation are utterly horrifying”.

The prime minister added: “The denial of aid to children and babies is completely unjustifiable, just as the continued captivity of hostages is completely unjustifiable.

“Hundreds of civilians have been killed while seeking aid – children, killed, whilst collecting water. It is a humanitarian catastrophe, and it must end.”

Sir Keir confirmed that the British government is now “accelerating efforts” to evacuate children from Gaza who need critical medical assistance, so they can be brought to the UK for specialist treatment.

Israel has now said that foreign countries will be able to airdrop aid into Gaza. While the PM says the UK will now “do everything we can” to get supplies in via this route, he said this decision has come “far too late”.

Last year, the RAF dropped aid into Gaza, but humanitarian organisations warned it wasn’t enough and was potentially dangerous. In March 2024, five people were killed when an aid parachute failed and supplies fell on them.

For now, Sir Keir has rejected calls to follow French President Emmanuel Macron and recognise a Palestinian state – despite more than 220 MPs signing a cross-party letter to demand he takes this step.

The prime minister is instead demanding a ceasefire and “lasting peace” – and says he will only consider an independent state as part of a negotiated peace deal.