Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal
Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.
Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.
However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:
“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”
Source: Raoul Pal
“Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said.
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China retaliates with new tariffs
Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term.
In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.
China overtakes the US in global trade. Source: Econovis
China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.
Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely
As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.
Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.
Related: Crypto market bottom likely by June despite tariff fears: Finance Redefined
Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.
“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:
“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”
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The US government is moving closer to reopening after more than 40 days of being shut down, following several Democratic lawmakers in the Senate siding with Republicans to pass a funding bill.
On Monday, the US Senate held a late-night vote for a bill “continuing appropriations and extensions for fiscal year 2026,” which passed 60 to 40 in the chamber. The bill is expected to fund the government through Jan. 31, 2026, provided it passes in the House of Representatives and is signed into law by President Donald Trump.
As Tuesday is a US federal holiday, the House is not expected to reconvene to vote on the bill until Wednesday at the earliest. Prediction platform Polymarket has already adjusted its expectation that the US government will return to normal operations on Friday, likely following the passage of the House bill.
Amid the government shutdown — the longest in the country’s history — many federal agencies have furloughed staff and reduced operations to align with the lack of funding.
Even if the bill were to immediately pass and be signed into law, it will likely take some time before staff can return to work. The operations plan at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), for example, will allow employees to come back on the “next regularly scheduled workday following enactment of appropriations legislation.”
Related: China raises alarm over alleged US role in one of the largest Bitcoin hacks
Digital asset market structure negotiations proceeding
On Monday, the leadership of the Senate Agriculture Committee released a discussion draft of a comprehensive bill on crypto market structure. The draft followed weeks of reported negotiations between Democratic and Republican lawmakers, about four months after the House passed its version of the legislation.
The shutdown likely helped slow progress on the bill, which Republican leaders initially expected to be out of the Agriculture Committee and Banking Committee by the end of October and signed into law by 2026.
Though Republicans still have a path forward to enact the legislation, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis warned that pushing the passage beyond January or February could make the bill vulnerable amid the 2026 midterm campaigns.
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Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin gifts aren’t immediately taxable. The IRS treats cryptocurrency as property, so recipients generally don’t owe income tax on the gift.
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Stay within the 2025 exclusion limit. You can gift up to $19,000 per person, or $38,000 for spouses splitting gifts, without triggering Form 709.
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Recipients inherit the donor’s cost basis. Future taxes depend on the donor’s original purchase price, not the cryptocurrency’s value at the time of the gift.
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Keep detailed records to avoid IRS issues. Document the fair market value, transaction date and wallet details to make your gift audit-proof.
Bitcoin has become a popular gift for birthdays, holidays or simply to share enthusiasm for cryptocurrency. Under US tax law, gifting Bitcoin (BTC) is not an immediate taxable event. The recipient owes no income tax, and the donor typically owes no gift tax if the gift’s value is within the annual exclusion limit.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) treats digital assets as property, not currency. This means Bitcoin gifts fall under the same framework as stocks or real estate. They follow property rules, require valuation at the time of transfer, and may need to be reported on Form 709 if the annual exclusion limit is exceeded.
In short, you can gift Bitcoin without creating an immediate tax obligation. However, poor documentation or misunderstanding basic rules can still cause problems later.
What counts as a gift?
A cryptocurrency gift must be a true transfer of ownership. You give up control and receive nothing in return. The 2025 annual exclusion allows up to $19,000 per recipient, or $38,000 for spouses using gift splitting, without filing Form 709. Exceeding that threshold does not automatically create a tax liability, but the form must still be filed.
Gifts between US citizen spouses are unlimited. For non-citizen spouses, the 2025 limit is about $190,000. Transfers to non-residents or certain trusts may have additional requirements.
Not every transfer qualifies as a gift under IRS rules: Only those made out of genuine generosity without expectation of repayment or services.
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Paying someone’s tuition or medical bills directly is exempt from gift tax.
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Moving cryptocurrency between your own wallets does not count as a gift.
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Transfers labeled as “gifts” that are actually payments for services are treated as income, not generosity.
When Form 709 kicks in
Form 709, the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return, is how the IRS tracks gifts that exceed the annual exclusion limit. Most people never owe gift tax, but some transfers still require filing.
You must file Form 709 if:
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Your gifts to any one person exceed $19,000 in 2025, the annual exclusion amount.
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You make a future-interest gift in which the recipient cannot immediately use or benefit from the asset.
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You and your spouse elect to split gifts to double the exclusion, which requires both spouses to file Form 709.
You do not need to file if:
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All gifts stay within the annual exclusion and qualify as present-interest transfers.
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Gifts to a US citizen spouse or a qualified charity are fully excluded from filing as long as you transfer complete ownership and control.
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All gifts go to qualified charities where you transfer full ownership.
Did you know? Form 709 is due by April 15 of the year after the gift. A separate form must be filed for each year, and filing doesn’t necessarily mean tax is owed. The 2025 lifetime exemption of $13.99 million typically covers most reportable gifts.
In practice, if you keep cryptocurrency gifts under the annual limit and document the fair market value on the date of transfer, you will likely avoid filing altogether.
Basis and the “dual-basis” trap for recipients
Receiving Bitcoin as a gift is not immediately taxable, but your future capital gains tax depends on the basis and holding period you inherit from the donor.
Carryover basis
You generally inherit the donor’s original cost basis and their holding period. If they bought Bitcoin for $5,000 and gifted it when it was worth $20,000, your basis would be $5,000. When you later sell, you will owe capital gains tax on the difference between your sale price and that basis.
Dual-basis rule
If the gift’s market value is lower than the donor’s basis at the time of transfer, two different bases apply:
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For gains, use the donor’s original basis.
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For losses, use the fair market value (FMV) at the time of the gift.
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If you sell between those two values, no gain or loss is recognized.
Early Bitcoin adopters often have very low cost bases, so recipients of appreciated coins can face significant future tax liabilities. Conversely, gifts of Bitcoin worth less than the donor’s basis limit potential loss deductions. If the donor pays gift tax, part of that payment may increase the recipient’s basis.
Obtain the donor’s purchase date, cost basis, the fair market value on the gift date and whether any gift tax was paid before selling. These details determine whether your next Bitcoin sale results in a taxable gain, a deductible loss or no gain or loss.
Crypto-specific pitfalls to avoid
Most cryptocurrency gifts follow standard property rules, but digital assets introduce additional risks that can trigger audits or disqualify deductions.
1. Turning a gift into a sale
If you sell or swap cryptocurrency before transferring it, the transaction counts as a taxable disposition, not a gift. To qualify as a true gift, you must transfer the asset directly, receive nothing in return and permanently give up control.
2. Poor valuation or missing records
Always document the fair market value (FMV) on the date of transfer, along with your original cost basis, purchase date and transaction IDs. Without proper records, the IRS may challenge the reported value or the recipient’s later gain or loss calculation.
3. Gifts that are really income
If cryptocurrency is given in exchange for services to an employee, contractor or influencer, it counts as compensation, not a gift. This makes it taxable income for the recipient and may subject the sender to payroll or self-employment taxes.
4. Cross-border and non-citizen issues
International gifts or transfers involving foreign wallets may require filing Form 3520 and other disclosures. Gifts to non-US-citizen spouses are capped at about $190,000 in 2025 unlike the unlimited exclusion for US-citizen spouses.
Miss one of these rules, and a generous gesture could quickly become a taxable event.
Simple steps to prevent tax trouble
Gifting or donating cryptocurrency in 2025 can be simple if you follow a few key steps:
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Stay within limits: Keep each recipient’s total gifts at or below $19,000 ($38,000 if splitting with a spouse). If you exceed that amount, file Form 709. You will likely still owe no tax unless you surpass the lifetime exemption.
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Know what you’re passing on: The recipient inherits your cost basis and holding period. Their future tax bill depends on your original purchase price, not the value on the date of the gift.
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Record everything: Keep records of the transfer date, fair market value, your original cost basis and acquisition date, and the wallet or transaction ID. Proper documentation protects both parties if the IRS requests verification.
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Gift, don’t sell: Selling or swapping cryptocurrency before gifting makes the transfer a taxable disposition. Transfer the asset directly instead.
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For charity: Donations exceeding $5,000 require a qualified appraisal, not just an exchange screenshot. Confirm that the charity can accept cryptocurrency before sending.
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Watch cross-border gifts: Foreign recipients and non-citizen spouses face lower exclusions and additional reporting requirements.
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Seek professional advice for large or complex transfers: High-value gifts, multi-signature wallets and trusts can create unique compliance challenges.
Before you gift Bitcoin
Most Bitcoin gifts fall safely within IRS limits, and no immediate tax is due. The risk usually arises later when the recipient sells. Because the donor’s basis carries over, gains or losses depend on that original value, not the market price at the time of gifting.
Handled properly, gifting Bitcoin is a straightforward way to share cryptocurrency wealth without tax complications. Keep detailed records, respect the thresholds and confirm that the transfer qualifies as a true gift. Generosity should not come with a surprise tax bill, and with the right steps, it will not.
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