This is the term used periodically to describe investors who push back against what are perceived to be irresponsible fiscal or monetary policies by selling government bonds, in the process pushing up yields, or implied borrowing costs.
Most of the focus on markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the rest of the world has, in the last week, been about the calamitous stock market reaction.
This was previously something that was assumed to have been taken seriously by Mr Trump.
During his first term in the White House, the president took the strength of US equities – in particular the S&P 500 – as being a barometer of the success, or otherwise, of his administration.
Image: Donald Trump in the Oval Office today. Pic: Reuters
He had, over the last week, brushed off the sour equity market reaction to his tariffs as being akin to “medicine” that had to be taken to rectify what he perceived as harmful trade imbalances around the world.
But, as ever, it is the bond markets that have forced Mr Trump to blink – and, make no mistake, blink is what he has done.
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To begin with, following the imposition of his tariffs – which were justified by some cockamamie mathematics and a spurious equation complete with Greek characters – bond prices rose as equities sold off.
That was not unusual: big sell-offs in equities, such as those seen in 1987 and in 2008, tend to be accompanied by rallies in bonds.
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17:12
What it’s like on the New York stock exchange floor
However, this week has seen something altogether different, with equities continuing to crater and US government bonds following suit.
At the beginning of the week yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as the safest of safe haven investments, were at 4.00%.
By early yesterday, they had risen to 4.51%, a huge jump by the standards of most investors. This is important.
The 10-year yield helps determine the interest rate on a whole clutch of financial products important to ordinary Americans, including mortgages, car loans and credit card borrowing.
By pushing up the yield on such a security, the bond investors were doing their stuff. It is not over-egging things to say that this was something akin to what Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng experienced when the latter unveiled his mini-budget in October 2022.
And, as with the aftermath to that event, the violent reaction in bonds was caused by forced selling.
Now part of the selling appears to have been down to investors concluding, probably rightly, that Mr Trump’s tariffs would inject a big dose of inflation into the US economy – and inflation is the enemy of all bond investors.
Part of it appears to be due to the fact the US Treasury had on Tuesday suffered the weakest demand in nearly 18 months for $58bn worth of three-year bonds that it was trying to sell.
But in this particular case, the selling appears to have been primarily due to investors, chiefly hedge funds, unwinding what are known as ‘basis trades’ – in simple terms a strategy used to profit from the difference between a bond priced at, say, $100 and a futures contract for that same bond priced at, say, $105.
In ordinary circumstances, a hedge fund might buy the bond at $100 and sell the futures contract at $105 and make a profit when the two prices converge, in what is normally a relatively risk-free trade.
So risk-free, in fact, that hedge funds will ‘leverage’ – or borrow heavily – themselves to maximise potential returns.
The sudden and violent fall in US Treasuries this week reflected the fact that hedge funds were having to close those trades by selling Treasuries.
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1:20
Trump freezes tariffs at 10% – except China
Confronted by a potential hike in borrowing costs for millions of American homeowners, consumers and businesses, the White House has decided to rein back its tariffs, rightly so.
It was immediately rewarded by a spectacular rally in equity markets – the Nasdaq enjoyed its second-best-ever day, and its best since 2001, while the S&P 500 enjoyed its third-best session since World War Two – and by a rally in US Treasuries.
The influential Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs immediately trimmed its forecast of the probability of a US recession this year from 65% to 45%.
Of course, Mr Trump will not admit he has blinked, claiming last night some investors had got “a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid”.
And it is perfectly possible that markets face more volatile days ahead: the spectre of Mr Trump’s tariffs being reinstated 90 days from now still looms and a full-blown trade war between the US and China is now raging.
But Mr Trump has blinked. The bond vigilantes have brought him to heel. This president, who by his aggressive use of emergency executive powers had appeared to be more powerful than any of his predecessors, will never seem quite so powerful again.
The owners of New Look, the high street fashion retailer, have picked bankers to oversee a strategic review which is expected to see the company change hands next year.
Sky News has learnt that Rothschild has been appointed in recent days to advise New Look and its shareholders on a potential exit.
The investment bank’s appointment follows a number of unsolicited approaches for the business from unidentified suitors.
New Look, which trades from almost 340 stores and employs about 10,000 people across the UK, is the country’s second-largest womenswear retailer in the 18-to-44 year-old age group.
It has been owned by its current shareholders – Alcentra and Brait – since October 2020.
In April, Sky News reported that the investors were injecting £30m of fresh equity into the business to aid its digital transformation.
Last year, the chain reported sales of £769m, with an improvement in gross margins and a statutory loss before tax of £21.7m – down from £88m the previous year.
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Like most high street retailers, it endured a torrid Covid-19 and engaged in a formal financial restructuring through a company voluntary arrangement.
In the autumn of 2023, it completed a £100m refinancing deal with Blazehill Capital and Wells Fargo.
A spokesperson for New Look declined to comment specifically on the appointment of Rothschild, but said: “Management are focused on running the business and executing the strategy for long-term growth.
“The company is performing well, with strong momentum driven by a successful summer trading period and notable online market share gains.”
Roughly 40% of New Look’s sales are now generated through digital channels, while recent data from the market intelligence firm Kantar showed it had moved into second place in the online 18-44 category, overtaking Shein and ASOS.
The Coca-Cola Company is brewing up a sale of Costa, Britain’s biggest high street coffee chain, more than six years after acquiring the business in a move aimed at helping it reduce its reliance on sugary soft drinks.
Sky News can exclusively reveal that Coca-Cola is working with bankers to hold exploratory talks about a sale of Costa.
Initial talks have already been held with a small number of potential bidders, including private equity firms, City sources said on Saturday.
Lazard, the investment bank, is understood to have been engaged by Coca-Cola to review options for the business and gauge interest from prospective buyers.
Indicative offers are said to be due in the early part of the autumn, although one source cautioned that Coca-Cola could yet decide not to proceed with a sale.
Costa trades from more than 2,000 stores in the UK, and well over 3,000 globally, according to the latest available figures.
It has been reported to have a global workforce numbering 35,000, although Coca-Cola did not respond to several attempts to establish the precise number of outlets currently in operation, or its employee numbers.
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This weekend, analysts said that a sale could crystallise a multibillion pound loss on the £3.9bn sum Coca-Cola agreed to pay to buy Costa from Whitbread, the London-listed owner of the Premier Inn hotel chain, in 2018.
One suggested that Costa might now command a price tag of just £2bn in a sale process.
The disposal proceeds would, in any case, not be material to the Atlanta-based company, which had a market capitalisation at Friday’s closing share price of $304.2bn (£224.9bn).
At the time of the acquisition, Coca-Cola’s chief executive, James Quincey, said: “Costa gives Coca-Cola new capabilities and expertise in coffee, and our system can create opportunities to grow the Costa brand worldwide.
“Hot beverages is one of the few segments of the total beverage landscape where Coca-Cola does not have a global brand.
“Costa gives us access to this market with a strong coffee platform.”
However, accounts filed at Companies House for Costa show that in 2023 – the last year for which standalone results are available – the coffee chain recorded revenues of £1.22bn.
While this represented a 9% increase on the previous year, it was below the £1.3bn recorded in 2018, the final year before Coca-Cola took control of the business.
Coca-Cola has been grappling with the weak performance of Costa for some time, with Mr Quincey saying on an earnings call last month: “We’re in the mode of reflecting on what we’ve learned, thinking about how we might want to find new avenues to grow in the coffee category while continuing to run the Costa business successfully.”
“It’s still a lot of money we put down, and we wanted that money to work as hard as possible.”
Costa’s 2022 accounts referred to the financial pressures it faced from “the economic environment and inflationary pressures”, resulting in it launching “a restructuring programme to address the scale of overheads and invest for growth”.
Filings show that despite its lacklustre performance, Costa has paid more than £250m in dividends to its owner since the acquisition.
The deal was intended to provide Coca-Cola with a global platform in a growing area of the beverages market.
Costa trades in dozens of countries, including India, Japan, Mexico and Poland, and operates a network of thousands of coffee vending machines internationally under the Costa Express brand.
The chain was founded in 1971 by Italian brothers Sergio and Bruno Costa.
It was sold to Whitbread for £19m in 1995, when it traded from fewer than 40 stores.
The business is now one of Britain’s biggest private sector employers, and has become a ubiquitous presence on high streets across the country.
Its main rivals include Starbucks, Caffe Nero and Pret a Manger – the last of which is being prepared for a stake sale and possible public market flotation.
It has also faced growing competition from more upmarket chains such as Gail’s, the bakeries group, which has also been exploring a sale.
Coca-Cola communications executives in the US and UK did not respond to a series of emails and calls from Sky News seeking comment on its plans for Costa.
TikTok is putting hundreds of jobs at risk in the UK, as it turns to artificial intelligence to assess problematic content.
The video-sharing app said a global restructuring is taking place that means it is “concentrating operations in fewer locations”.
Layoffs are set to affect those working in its trust and safety departments, who focus on content moderation.
Unions have reacted angrily to the move – and claim “it will put TikTok’s millions of British users at risk”.
Figures from the tech giant, obtained by Sky News, suggest more than 85% of the videos removed for violating its community guidelines are now flagged by automated tools.
Meanwhile, it is claimed 99% of problematic content is proactively removed before being reported by users.
Executives also argue that AI systems can help reduce the amount of distressing content that moderation teams are exposed to – with the number of graphic videos viewed by staff falling 60% since this technology was implemented.
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It comes weeks after the Online Safety Act came into force, which means social networks can face huge fines if they fail to stop the spread of harmful material.
The Communication Workers Union has claimed the redundancy announcement “looks likely to be a significant reduction of the platform’s vital moderation teams”.
In a statement, it warned: “Alongside concerns ranging from workplace stress to a lack of clarity over questions such as pay scales and office attendance policy, workers have also raised concerns over the quality of AI in content moderation, believing such ‘alternatives’ to human work to be too vulnerable and ineffective to maintain TikTok user safety.”
John Chadfield, the union’s national officer for tech, said many of its members believe the AI alternatives being used are “hastily developed and immature”.
He also alleged that the layoffs come a week before staff were due to vote on union recognition.
“That TikTok management have announced these cuts just as the company’s workers are about to vote on having their union recognised stinks of union-busting and putting corporate greed over the safety of workers and the public,” he added.
Under the proposed plans, affected employees would see their roles reallocated elsewhere in Europe or handled by third-party providers, with a smaller number of trust and safety roles remaining on British soil.
The tech giant currently employs more than 2,500 people in the UK, and is due to open a new office in central London next year
A TikTok spokesperson said: “We are continuing a reorganisation that we started last year to strengthen our global operating model for Trust and Safety, which includes concentrating our operations in fewer locations globally to ensure that we maximize effectiveness and speed as we evolve this critical function for the company with the benefit of technological advancements.”