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Chalk this one up to the bond vigilantes.

This is the term used periodically to describe investors who push back against what are perceived to be irresponsible fiscal or monetary policies by selling government bonds, in the process pushing up yields, or implied borrowing costs.

Most of the focus on markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the rest of the world has, in the last week, been about the calamitous stock market reaction.

This was previously something that was assumed to have been taken seriously by Mr Trump.

During his first term in the White House, the president took the strength of US equities – in particular the S&P 500 – as being a barometer of the success, or otherwise, of his administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks, as he signs executive orders and proclamations in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 9, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
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Donald Trump in the Oval Office today. Pic: Reuters

He had, over the last week, brushed off the sour equity market reaction to his tariffs as being akin to “medicine” that had to be taken to rectify what he perceived as harmful trade imbalances around the world.

But, as ever, it is the bond markets that have forced Mr Trump to blink – and, make no mistake, blink is what he has done.

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To begin with, following the imposition of his tariffs – which were justified by some cockamamie mathematics and a spurious equation complete with Greek characters – bond prices rose as equities sold off.

That was not unusual: big sell-offs in equities, such as those seen in 1987 and in 2008, tend to be accompanied by rallies in bonds.

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What it’s like on the New York stock exchange floor

However, this week has seen something altogether different, with equities continuing to crater and US government bonds following suit.

At the beginning of the week yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as the safest of safe haven investments, were at 4.00%.

By early yesterday, they had risen to 4.51%, a huge jump by the standards of most investors. This is important.

The 10-year yield helps determine the interest rate on a whole clutch of financial products important to ordinary Americans, including mortgages, car loans and credit card borrowing.

By pushing up the yield on such a security, the bond investors were doing their stuff. It is not over-egging things to say that this was something akin to what Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng experienced when the latter unveiled his mini-budget in October 2022.

And, as with the aftermath to that event, the violent reaction in bonds was caused by forced selling.

Sky graphic showing the US 30-year treasury yield

Now part of the selling appears to have been down to investors concluding, probably rightly, that Mr Trump’s tariffs would inject a big dose of inflation into the US economy – and inflation is the enemy of all bond investors.

Part of it appears to be due to the fact the US Treasury had on Tuesday suffered the weakest demand in nearly 18 months for $58bn worth of three-year bonds that it was trying to sell.

But in this particular case, the selling appears to have been primarily due to investors, chiefly hedge funds, unwinding what are known as ‘basis trades’ – in simple terms a strategy used to profit from the difference between a bond priced at, say, $100 and a futures contract for that same bond priced at, say, $105.

In ordinary circumstances, a hedge fund might buy the bond at $100 and sell the futures contract at $105 and make a profit when the two prices converge, in what is normally a relatively risk-free trade.

So risk-free, in fact, that hedge funds will ‘leverage’ – or borrow heavily – themselves to maximise potential returns.

The sudden and violent fall in US Treasuries this week reflected the fact that hedge funds were having to close those trades by selling Treasuries.

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Trump freezes tariffs at 10% – except China

Confronted by a potential hike in borrowing costs for millions of American homeowners, consumers and businesses, the White House has decided to rein back its tariffs, rightly so.

It was immediately rewarded by a spectacular rally in equity markets – the Nasdaq enjoyed its second-best-ever day, and its best since 2001, while the S&P 500 enjoyed its third-best session since World War Two – and by a rally in US Treasuries.

The influential Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs immediately trimmed its forecast of the probability of a US recession this year from 65% to 45%.

Sky graphic showing the Nasdaq composite across the past fortnight

Of course, Mr Trump will not admit he has blinked, claiming last night some investors had got “a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid”.

And it is perfectly possible that markets face more volatile days ahead: the spectre of Mr Trump’s tariffs being reinstated 90 days from now still looms and a full-blown trade war between the US and China is now raging.

But Mr Trump has blinked. The bond vigilantes have brought him to heel. This president, who by his aggressive use of emergency executive powers had appeared to be more powerful than any of his predecessors, will never seem quite so powerful again.

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Starmer’s search for football watchdog chair goes into extra-time

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Starmer's search for football watchdog chair goes into extra-time

The appointment of the inaugural chair of English football’s new watchdog has been thrown into fresh uncertainty after Whitehall officials resumed contact with applicants who did not make it onto a final shortlist.

Sky News has learnt that the preferred candidate to chair the Independent Football Regulator (IFR) is now “unlikely” to be drawn from a group of three contenders interviewed months ago.

The search process has not been officially reopened, and insiders said the £130,000-a-year post was not expected to be readvertised.

They acknowledged, however, that a shortlist including former Aston Villa Football Club chief executive Christian Purslow would probably not produce the chosen candidate.

Sky News revealed in recent weeks that the other contenders were Sanjay Bhandari, who chairs the anti-racism football charity Kick It Out, and Professor Sir Ian Kennedy, who chaired the new parliamentary watchdog established after the MPs expenses scandal.

The delay to the appointment of the IFR’s inaugural chair will do little to dampen recent speculation that Sir Keir Starmer wants to pare back the powers of the football regulator amid a broader clampdown on Britain’s economic watchdogs.

Both 10 Downing Street and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) have sought to dismiss the speculation, with insiders insisting that the IFR will be established as originally envisaged.

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The establishment of the regulator, which will be based in Manchester, is among the principal elements of legislation progressing through parliament.

The Football Governance Bill has just completed its journey through the House of Lords and will be introduced in the Commons shortly, according to a DCMS spokesman.

The establishment of the regulator, which was conceived by the previous Conservative government in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project, has triggered deep unrest in English football.

Steve Parish, the chairman of Premier League side Crystal Palace, told a recent sports industry conference that the watchdog “wants to interfere in all of the things we don’t need them to interfere in and help with none of the things we actually need help with”.

“We have a problem that we’re constantly being told that we’re not a business and [that] we’re part of the fabric of communities,” he is reported to have said.

“At the same time, we’re… being treated to the nth degree like a business.”

Interviews for the chair of the football regulator took place in November, with a previous recruitment process curtailed by the calling of last year’s general election.

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Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, will sign off on the appointment of a preferred candidate, with the chosen individual expected to face a pre-appointment hearing in front of the Commons culture, media and sport select committee.

It forms part of a process that represents the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.

The establishment of the body comes with the top tier of the professional game gripped by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases over its financial dealings.

The government has dropped a previous stipulation that the regulator should have regard to British foreign and trade policy when determining the appropriateness of a new club owner.

“We do not comment on speculation,” the DCMS said when asked about the process to recruit a chair of the football watchdog.

“No appointment has been made and the recruitment process for [IFR] chair is ongoing.”

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MPs to debate emergency law to keep British Steel open as prime minister warns national security ‘on the line’

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MPs to debate emergency law to keep British Steel open as prime minister warns national security 'on the line'

MPs will today debate emergency laws to save British Steel after the prime minister warned the country’s “economic and national security is on the line”.

Sir Keir Starmer said the future of the company’s Scunthorpe plant – which employs about 3,500 people – “hangs in the balance” after its owner said the cost of running it was unsustainable.

The prime minister said legislation would be passed in one day to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options”.

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MPs and Lords are being summoned from their Easter recess to debate the move and will sit from 11am.

The last time parliament was recalled was on 18 August 2021 to debate the situation in Afghanistan.

The government has been considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, the Chinese owner, cancelled future orders for iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the blast furnaces running.

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The furnaces are the last in the UK capable of making virgin steel.

Jingye last month rejected a £500m state rescue package – raising fresh doubts about the Lincolnshire plant and fears it could close in the coming days.

The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without it, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.

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Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces

In a statement on Friday, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.

“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance. Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”

The prime minister said steel was “part of our national story, part of the pride and heritage of this nation” and “essential for our future”.

He said the emergency law would give the business secretary powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.

This includes the power to direct the company’s board and workforce. It will also ensure it can order the raw materials to keep the furnaces running and ensure staff are paid.

A general view shows British Steel's Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
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The Scunthorpe plant is the last in the UK that can make virgin steel. Pic: Reuters

One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel's Scunthorpe operation
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One of the two blast furnaces at Scunthorpe

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”, while Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the owner had left the government with “no choice”.

Mr Reynolds said Jingye had confirmed plans to close the Scunthorpe furnaces immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment.

The company said it had invested £1.2bn since taking over in 2020, but that the plant is losing £700,000 a day.

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Govt intervention in British Steel ‘a remarkable step’ – analysis

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What will happen with British Steel?

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government had landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.

She said when she was business secretary, she had negotiated a plan with British Steel “to limit job losses and keep the plant running”.

Ms Badenoch said the government had “bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable”.

She added: “Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”

The Unite union said the prime minister’s recalling of parliament was “absolutely the right thing to do to begin the process of nationalisation”.

While the government hasn’t confirmed those plans, the chancellor also said earlier this week that “all options” are on the table.

Sky News understands accountancy firm EY is being lined up to play a role in a nationalisation process.

The government’s intervention over British Steel comes six months after the last blast furnace was closed at Port Talbot in Wales.

Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government didn’t take similar action there.

The party’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, said: “Parliament is being recalled to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.

“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.”

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MPs to debate emergency legislation to keep British Steel open as ‘security is on the line’

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MPs to debate emergency law to keep British Steel open as prime minister warns national security 'on the line'

Sir Keir Starmer has said the government will debate emergency legislation on Saturday to keep the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe open as “our economic and national security is on the line”.

The prime minister added that “the future of British Steel hangs in the balance” and legislation will be passed tomorrow to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options” for it.

MPs and Lords are being summoned back from Easter recess to Westminster to debate draft legislation on the plans, and will sit from 11am on Saturday.

The government had been actively considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, its Chinese owner in Scunthorpe, cancelled future orders for the iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the last blast furnaces in the UK running.

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Jingye also rejected a £500m state rescue package in a move which raised fresh doubts about the 3,500 jobs at the Lincolnshire plant – with it feared the site would be forced to close as early as next week.

The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without the plant, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.

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In a short statement delivered from Downing Street this evening, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.

“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance.

“Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”

One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel's Scunthorpe operation
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One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel’s Scunthorpe operation

‘A new era of global instability’

The prime minister added he has been to the site in Scunthorpe and met the steelworkers there.

He said he understands how “important steel is” to the “whole country” and continued: “It’s part of our national story, Part of the pride and heritage of this nation.

“And I’ll tell you this, it is essential for our future.

“[The government’s] plan for change means we need more steel, not less. So we will act with urgency… This situation and our response is unique.

“While it is true that we’re facing a new era of global instability, our concerns about this plant and negotiations to protect it have been running for years.”

Sir Keir said parliament will be recalled for a “Saturday sitting” and will “pass emergency legislation” in “one day” to give the business secretary the powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.

He added: “We will keep all options on the table. Our future is in our hands.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves posted on X after the statement that the government is “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”.

“We are securing Britain’s future,” she added.

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Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces

Tory leader criticises Starmer

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said this evening the Chinese owner of British steel has left the government with “no choice” but to act.

Jingye had confirmed plans to close the blast furnaces at Scunthorpe immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment from the UK government, Mr Reynolds added in a statement.

It came as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government has landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.

“As business secretary, I negotiated a modernisation plan with British Steel to limit job losses and keep the plant running, including introducing an electric arc furnace in Teesside, similar to what we did with Tata at Port Talbot steelworks.

“However, the union-led Labour government have bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable. Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”

She added the government’s attempts to find a solution to the crisis are inevitably “going to cost taxpayers a lot of money”.

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A general view shows British Steel's Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
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British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters

Meanwhile, the Unite union welcomed Sir Keir’s announcement by saying it is “absolutely the right thing to do to begin the process of nationalisation”.

The government has not confirmed plans to nationalise the company, but like the prime minister this evening, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said earlier this week that “all options” are on the table.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said this evening: “I am pleased that the government has listened to representations by Unite and other steel unions over the future of British Steel.

“Ministers could not have allowed a foundation industry to go under with the loss of more than 3,000 jobs and key skills… Discussions have been positive and whilst a longer-term plan needs to be developed, this gives workers the reprieve we have been asking for.”

‘When it was Wales, they mocked’

The government’s intervention over British Steel comes six months after the last blast furnace was closed at Port Talbot in Wales.

Welsh political party Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government did not take similar action to save that steelworks.

The party’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said: “Parliament is being recalled [on Saturday] to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.

“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.

“In a real emergency, governments step up to defend their strategic interests. Plaid Cymru recognised the importance of Welsh steelmaking. Labour chose to look the other way.

“When it was Wales, they mocked. Now it’s England, they act.

“Labour has taken Wales for granted for far too long – and the people of Wales won’t forget it.”

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