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Is there method to the madness? Donald Trump and his acolytes would have you believe so. 

The US president is standing firm among all the market chaos.

Just this weekend, after US stock markets suffered their sharpest falls since the onset of the pandemic, Trump reposted a video on his social media platform Truth Social. This was its title: “Trump is purposefully CRASHING the market.”

Tariffs latest: ‘BE COOL’, Trump says as trade war escalates

The video claimed the president was engineering a flight to US government bonds, also known as treasuries – a safe haven in turbulent times. The video suggested Trump was deliberately throwing the stock market into chaos so investors would take their money out and buy bonds instead.

Why? Because demand for treasuries pushes up the price of the bonds, and that, in turn, lowers the yield on those bonds.

The yield is the interest rate on the debt, so a lower yield pushes down government borrowing costs. That would provide some relief for a government that has $9.2trn of government debt to refinance this year. Consumers also stand to benefit as the US Federal Reserve, the US central bank, would likely follow suit, feeling the pressure to cut interest rates.

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 7, 2025. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange. Pic: Reuters

Trump and his treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, have made it a key policy priority to lower yields. For a while, it looked like the plan was working. As stock markets tumbled in response to Trump’s tariffs agenda, investors ploughed their money into bonds instead.

However, Trump may have spoken too soon. On Monday, the markets had a change of heart and rapidly started selling government bonds. Thirty-year treasury yields hit 4.92% on Wednesday, their biggest three-day jump since 1982. That means government borrowing costs are rising – and not just in the US. The sell-off has spiralled to government bonds worldwide.

Rachel Reeves will be watching anxiously.­ Yields on ­Britain’s 30-year government bonds, also known as gilts, hit their highest level since May 1998. They registered a 27 basis point jump to 5.642% today – that’s on track to be the largest one-day move since the aftermath of former prime minister Liz Truss’ “mini-budget” in October 2022.

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‘These countries are dying to make a deal’

This is a big deal. It is the sharpest sell-off in the US bond market since the pandemic. Back then, investors also rushed into bonds before dumping them and the motivations, on one level, are similar.

In 2020, investors sold bonds because they had to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios. When markets fall, as they have done over the past few days, lenders can demand that an investor who has borrowed money stump up more cash against the value of their loan because the collateral against those loans has fallen in value. This is known as a “margin call”. Government bonds are easy to sell as investors “dash for cash”.

There are signs that this may be happening again and central banks, which had to step in last time, are alert.

The Bank of England warned today of the growing risks to financial stability. “A sharp increase in government bond yields could crystallise relatively quickly,” it said.

There are other forces weighing on government bonds. With policy uncertainty unfolding in the US, investors could also be signalling that US debt isn’t the safe haven it once was. That loss of confidence also seems to have hurt the dollar, one of the world’s safest places to park your money. It’s had a turbulent journey but is down 1.15% against a basket of safe haven currencies since Trump announced widespread tariffs on 2 April.

Some are even wondering if China could be behind some of this, dumping US government debt as a revenge tactic to hurt a president who has explicitly said he wants bond yields to come down. The country holds $761bn of US government bonds, second only to Japan. If this is the case, then the US-China trade war could rapidly be evolving into a financial war.

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Wage growth slows in boost to hope for interest rate cut – ONS

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Wage growth slows in boost to hope for interest rate cut - ONS

The pace of wage rises has slowed and came in lower than expected, official figures show.

Both average weekly earnings and wages excluding bonuses came in lower than expected, a boost to interest rate setters at the Bank of England, potentially opening the door for steeper borrowing cost deductions.

There was no change at all in the growth of average weekly earnings, which continued to rise 5.6%, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the three months to February.

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Wages excluding bonuses continued to grow far above the rate of inflation at 5.9%, the ONS said, but below City forecasts.

Economists polled by the Reuters news agency had expected average weekly earnings to rise 5.7% and for wages excluding bonuses to top 6%.

The wage data does not capture the national minimum wage rise, which came into effect on 1 April.

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Nevertheless, wage growth was described as “strong” by the ONS. While private sector pay was “little changed”, public sector growth accelerated as pay rises fed through to headline figures. Public sector pay rose by 5.7%, up from 5.2% a month earlier.

What does it mean for interest rates?

The figures are likely to be a boost to the Bank of England, which had been concerned about the inflationary impact of speedily rising wages.

A cut is widely expected when members of the Monetary Policy Committee meet next month. They’re anticipated to reduce the rate to 4.25%.

The Bank of England, as the UK’s central bank, is mandated to bring inflation down to 2% by increasing or decreasing interest rates, which can stimulate or suppress growth by controlling how cheap or expensive it is to borrow money.

How’s the jobs market faring?

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.

The ONS, however, has advised caution in interpreting changes in the monthly unemployment rate due to concerns over the figures’ reliability.

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‘National living wage going up’

The exact number of unemployed people is unknown, partly because people don’t answer the phone when the ONS calls.

There are signs, however, of cautious hiring as job vacancies fell to pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021.

As well as rising minimum wages, there are increased costs for employers in the form of higher national insurance contributions.

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Bank of England currency printer De La Rue maps sale to buyout firm Atlas

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Bank of England currency printer De La Rue maps sale to buyout firm Atlas

The company which prints banknotes for the Bank of England is on the brink of an historic takeover that would see it owned by private equity investors for the first time since it was founded 212 years ago.

Sky News has learnt that Atlas Holdings, a US-based buyout firm, is in advanced talks about a 130p-a-share offer for De La Rue.

The London-listed company’s leading investors are understood to have been asked to provide irrevocable undertakings to accept the offer, with one shareholder saying that a deal recommended by De La Rue’s board was likely to be announced as early as Tuesday morning.

If completed, a takeover deal would end nearly 80 years of De La Rue’s status as a London Stock Exchange-listed business, having made its public company debut in 1947.

Headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut, Atlas Holdings focuses on acquiring companies in sectors such as industrials, trading and energy.

Among the businesses it owns in Europe are London-based graphic and creative services agency ASG and Bovis, a British construction services group.

Banking sources said the 130p-a-share offer for De La Rue would represent a robust premium to a price which sank below 50p in mid-2023, but which has since recovered to close at 112p on Monday evening.

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Atlas Holdings is understood to have drafted in bankers from Lazard to advise it, while De La Rue is being advised by Deutsche Numis.

The offer from Atlas Holdings does not include De La Rue’s authentication division, which is being sold to US-listed Crane NXT in a £300m transaction which took a further step towards completion last week.

The proceeds from that deal have been earmarked to repay loans and reduce its pension scheme deficit.

De La Rue’s currency arm prints money for a large number of central banks around the world, including in the Americas, Asia, Africa and Europe.

It has printing sites in the UK, Kenya, Malta and Sri Lanka.

In 2020, the Bank of England announced that it had extended De La Rue’s contract from the end of 2025 until 2028.

At the time, there were 4.4bn Bank of England notes in circulation with a collective value of about £82bn.

De La Rue has been running a formal sale process under Takeover Panel rules, with a string of parties said to have expressed an interest in it since the period began late last year.

Among its potential suitors has been Edi Truell, the prominent City financier and pensions entrepreneur, who tabled a 125p-a-share proposal in January.

De La Rue’s directors have been exploring options in recent months to maximise value for long-suffering shareholders, including a standalone sale of the currency-printing business or other proposals to acquire the entire company.

The group’s balance sheet has been under strain for years, with doubts at one point about whether it could stave off insolvency.

After being beset by a series of corporate mishaps, including a string of profit warnings, a public row with its auditor and challenges in its operations in countries including India and Kenya, it was forced to seek breathing space from pension trustees by deferring tens of millions of pounds of payments into its retirement scheme.

Soon after that, the company parachuted in Clive Whiley, a seasoned corporate troubleshooter, as chairman, with a mandate to repair its battered finances.

Since then, its stock has recovered strongly, and is up 37% over the last year.

De La Rue traces its roots back to 1813, when Thomas De La Rue established a printing business.

Eight years later, he began producing straw hats and then moved into printing stationery, according to an official history of the company.

Its first paper money was produced for the government of Mauritius in 1860, and in 1914 it began printing 10-shilling notes for the UK government on the outbreak of the First World War.

De la Rue has been contacted for comment, while Atlas Holdings could not be reached for comment on Monday evening.

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Reform UK treasurer Candy sweet on merger of payments firms

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Reform UK treasurer Candy sweet on merger of payments firms

A payments company backed by Nick Candy, the Reform UK treasurer, will this week announce a tie-up with a London-based peer amid a rapidly shifting industry landscape.

Sky News has learnt that VibePay, in which Candy Ventures is the largest shareholder, has agreed a deal to sell itself to Banked, a so-called ‘pay by bank’ platform.

The all-share deal, which is expected to be announced on Tuesday, will see Mr Candy’s investment vehicle holding a stake of roughly 25% in the combined group, according to insiders.

One source said the deal would value the enlarged company at in excess of $100m.

As part of the transaction, the VibePay founder, Luke Massie, and Candy Ventures director Steven Smith will join the board of Banked.

VibePay specialises in ‘conversational commerce’, providing personalised offers and peer-to-peer payments to its users, connecting them to brands, sellers and banks.

People close to the deal said that the takeover would help address a market opportunity by rewarding debit customers who have been overlooked by credit card operators, with debit card payments making up nearly 90% of all UK card payments but representing just a tiny fraction of payment rewards.

Banked counts global financial giants including Bank of America, Citi, FIS and NAB among its strategic investors and partners.

It has previously raised more than $60m in funding, while VibePay has raised over $10m from its backers.

The deal is understood to be awaiting approval from the City regulator.

In response to an enquiry from Sky News, Mr Candy said: “I’ve been a strong supporter of VibePay, and I’m excited about the future with Banked.

“The global vision of the Banked founders is truly inspiring, and I see immense potential in the combined vision for the next generation of payments.

“This is a positive moment for the UK technology sector, with two British companies coming together to drive forward a global ambition.

“I’m proud to be a part of this journey and am eager to champion this story both in the UK and internationally.”

Mr Massie added: “We’ve spent years building technology that genuinely connects people – not just for transactions, but for experiences.

“By joining forces with Banked, we now have the infrastructure, global reach, and merchant access to supercharge what we’ve built, and deliver real value to consumers at scale.”

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Banked bought Waave, an Australian pay-by-bank provider, last October, strengthening its international presence, while it has a partnership with NAB – one of Australia’s biggest lenders – to offer a service to Amazon customers in the country.

“The real value in Pay by Bank goes beyond cheap and secure payments; it’s in making spending work for everyone,” said Brad Goodall, Banked’s chief executive.

“The combination of Banked and VibePay will drive Pay by Bank adoption through innovative consumer incentives – on par with credit cards – and empower merchants with deep data insights to drive acquisition and retention like never before.

The companies declined to comment formally on the value of the acquisition or the valuation of the combined entity.

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