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Ministers want reforms to sentencing policy that will reduce the prison population by more than ten percent, Sky News has learnt.

The sentencing review is under pressure to deliver recommendations that will send 9,500 fewer people to jail by 2028.

The independent review of sentencing policy, being led by former Justice Secretary David Gauke, will submit its findings to the government next month.

There are currently 87,938 people in prison in England and Wales. The male estate is almost full again, operating at more than 99% capacity, with emergency measures triggered to hold offenders in police cells as jails run out of space.

Government projections suggest the prison population will increase to more than 100,000 inmates by 2029.

In an indication of how serious the current situation has become, Sky News has been told of prison governors getting messages directly from court officials outside of working hours, asking them to free up space in order to send new prisoners to jail.

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Prison recall population at record level

The sentencing review panel is expected to make suggestions around the impact of short sentences, greater use of alternatives to prison custody and possible steps to reduce the number of women behind bars.

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But sources close to the review process suggest that the scrapping of short sentences will only deliver “hundreds” of free spaces, with more radical changes to sentencing practises needed to ease overcrowding.

Certain crimes are outside the scope of the review – such as murder – but reforms being considered could see other serious offenders serve less time in prison.

It’s understood the sentencing review panel has met with relevant authorities for feedback, and there is nervousness amongst the police about the additional number of people that will need to be managed in the community.

Authorities support the need for a review of sentencing, with shifts away from custodial terms for some offenders to solve the prisons crisis, but changes will increase policing pressures.

The review will also consider other examples of policy and penal systems from around the world.

Read more from Sky News:
Jenrick: Sentencing ‘two-tier’ justice
Rising prison numbers overwhelming jails

On a recent trip to Texas, the justice secretary saw how offenders earned ‘good behaviour’ credits, giving inmates the ability to serve less time behind bars by participating in work or courses.

David Gauke had also previously pointed to the use of open prisons in Spain, where 25% of offenders are housed in lower security jails, with inmates able to leave prison for study and work during the day.

The capacity problems in England and Wales are more acute in the higher security, or ‘closed’, estates, so greater use of open prisons would help ease overcrowding.

But there are concerns among open prison governors that high-risk offenders are being sent to open prisons when they shouldn’t be, for capacity reasons.

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “The government inherited overcrowded prisons on the point of collapse – we introduced emergency measures and were clear that longer term action was required.

“Alongside our commitment to build 14,000 prison places, we will carefully consider all recommendations by the independent Sentencing Review to ensure we never run out of space again.”

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Prince Harry cleared of bullying claims by report into ‘damaging dispute’ at his charity

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Prince Harry cleared of bullying claims by report into 'damaging dispute' at his charity

The Charity Commission has found no evidence of bullying or harassment at a charity set up by Prince Harry.

But it has found that an internal dispute at Sentebale “severely impacted the charity’s reputation”.

Earlier this year its chair, Dr Sophie Chandauka, accused the Duke of Sussex of “harassment and bullying at scale”.

Her comments followed the departure of the prince and several others from the organisation in March.

They had asked her to step down, alleging it was in the “best interest of the charity”.

Dr Chandauka told Sky News that Harry had “authorised the release of a damaging piece of news to the outside world” without informing her or Sentebale directors.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex declined to offer any formal response.

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Why was Prince Harry accused of ‘bullying’?

‘Strong perception of ill-treatment’

The Charity Commission said it was reporting after a “damaging internal dispute emerged” and has “criticised all parties to the dispute for allowing it to play out publicly”.

That “severely impacted the charity’s reputation and risked undermining public trust in charities more generally”, it said.

But it found no evidence of “widespread or systemic bullying or harassment, including misogyny or misogynoir at the charity”.

Nevertheless, it did acknowledge the “strong perception of ill-treatment felt by a number of parties to the dispute and the impact this may have had on them personally”.

It also found no evidence of “‘over-reach’ by either the chair or the Duke of Sussex as patron”.

‘Confusion exacerbated tensions’

But it was critical of the charity’s “lack of clarity in delegations to the chair which allowed for misunderstandings to occur”.

And it has “identified a lack of clarity around role descriptions and internal policies as the primary cause for weaknesses in the charity’s management”.

That “confusion exacerbated tensions, which culminated in a dispute and multiple resignations of trustees and both founding patrons”.

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Why was Prince Harry accused of ‘bullying’?

Harry: Report falls troublingly short

A spokesperson for Prince Harry said it was “unsurprising” that the commission had announced “no findings of wrongdoing in relation to Sentebale’s co-founder and former patron, Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex”.

They added: “Despite all that, their report falls troublingly short in many regards, primarily the fact that the consequences of the current chair’s actions will not be borne by her, but by the children who rely on Sentebale’s support.”

They said the prince will “now focus on finding new ways to continue supporting the children of Lesotho and Botswana”.

Dr Chandauka said: “I appreciate the Charity Commission for its conclusions which confirm the governance concerns I raised privately in February 2025.”

But she added: “The unexpected adverse media campaign that was launched by those who resigned on 24 March 2025 has caused incalculable damage and offers a glimpse of the unacceptable behaviours displayed in private.”

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Police investigating grooming gangs given AI tools to speed up cold case work

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Police investigating grooming gangs given AI tools to speed up cold case work

All police forces investigating grooming gangs in England and Wales will be given access to new AI tools to help speed up their investigations.

The artificial intelligence tools are already thought to have saved officers in 13 forces more than £20m and 16,000 hours of investigation time.

The apps can translate large amounts of text in foreign languages from mobile phones seized by police, and analyse a mass of digital data to find patterns and relationships between suspects.

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Grooming gang inquiry: ‘Our chance for justice’

‘We must punish perpetrators’

The rollout is part of a £426,000 boost for the Tackling Organised Exploitation (TOEX) programme, which supports officers to investigate complex cases involving modern slavery, county lines and child sex abuse.

The increased access to the AI technology follows Baroness Casey’s recommendation for a national operation to review cold grooming gang cases.

That operation will review more than 1,200 closed cases of child sexual exploitation.

“The sexual exploitation of children by grooming gangs is one of the most horrific crimes, and we must punish perpetrators, provide justice for victims and survivors, and protect today’s children from harm,” said safeguarding minister Jess Phillips.

“Baroness Casey flagged the need to upgrade police information systems to improve investigations and safeguard children at risk. Today we are investing in these critical tools.”

Read more from Sky News:
Harry criticises report into charity

Reeves told to find ‘substantial’ tax rises

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Key takeaways from the Casey review

Lack of ethnicity data ‘a major failing’

Police forces have also been instructed by the home secretary to collect ethnicity data, as recommended by Baroness Casey.

Her June report found the lack of data showing sex offenders’ ethnicity and nationality in grooming gangs was “a major failing over the last decade or more”.

She found that officials avoided the issue of ethnicity for fear of being called racist, but there were enough convictions of Asian men “to have warranted closer examination”.

The government has launched a national inquiry into the abuse and further details are expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

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Chancellor warned ‘substantial tax rises’ needed – as she faces ‘impossible trilemma’

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Chancellor warned 'substantial tax rises' needed - as she faces 'impossible trilemma'

Rachel Reeves will need to find more than £40bn of tax rises or spending cuts in the autumn budget to meet her fiscal rules, a leading research institute has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the government would miss its rule, which stipulates that day to day spending should be covered by tax receipts, by £41.2bn in the fiscal year 2029-30.

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In its latest UK economic outlook, NIESR said: “This shortfall significantly increases the pressure on the chancellor to introduce substantial tax rises in the upcoming autumn budget if she hopes to remain compliant with her fiscal rules.”

The deteriorating fiscal picture was blamed on poor economic growth, higher than expected borrowing and a reversal in welfare cuts that could have saved the government £6.25bn.

Together they have created an “impossible trilemma”, NIESR said, with the chancellor simultaneously bound to her fiscal rules, spending commitments, and manifesto pledges that oppose tax hikes.

Read more:
What is a wealth tax?

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Could the rich be taxed to fill black hole?

Reeves told to consider replacing council tax

The institute urged the government to build a larger fiscal buffer through moderate but sustained tax rises.

“This will help allay bond market fears about fiscal sustainability, which may in turn reduce borrowing costs,” it said.

“It will also help to reduce policy uncertainty, which can hit both business and consumer confidence.”

It said that money could be raised by reforms to council tax bands or, in a more radical approach, by replacing the whole council tax system with a land value tax.

To reduce spending pressures, NIESR called for a greater focus on reducing economic inactivity, which could bring down welfare spending.

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What’s the deal with wealth taxes?

Growth to remain sluggish

The report was released against the backdrop of poor growth, with the chancellor struggling to ignite the economy after two months of declining GDP.

The institute is forecasting modest economic growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. That means Britain will rank mid-table among the G7 group of advanced economies.

‘Things are not looking good’

However, inflation is likely to remain persistent, with the consumer price index (CPI) likely to hit 3.5% in 2025 and around 3% by mid-2026. NIESR blamed sustained wage growth and higher government spending.

It said the Bank of England would cut interest rates twice this year and again at the beginning of next year, taking the rate from 4.25% to 3.5%.

Persistent inflation is also weighing on living standards: the poorest 10% of UK households saw their living standards fall by 1.3% in 2024-25 compared to the previous year, NIESR said. They are now 10% worse off than they were before the pandemic.

Professor Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomics at NIESR, said the government faced tough choices ahead: “With growth at only 1.3% and inflation above target, things are not looking good for the chancellor, who will need to either raise taxes or reduce spending or both in the October budget.”

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