Global financial markets have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past few days, but now, with President Donald Trump having paused his “retaliatory” tariffs, the situation should stabilise.
Here, we outline how the pound in your pocket has been affected.
Stock markets, bonds and currencies moved sharply after Mr Trump put a 90-day pause on tariffs other than the base 10% tax slapped on almost all imports to the US. China still faces a levy of 125% on the goods it exports to the US.
But there have still been some impactful changes since his so-called “liberation day” tariff announcement last week.
So, what’s happened?
Well, last week two more interest rate cuts were expected by the end of this year, but now traders are pricing in three cuts by the Bank of England.
Borrowing will become cheaper as the interest rate is now anticipated to be brought down more than previously thought, to 3.75% by the end of 2025 from the current 4.5%.
It’s not exactly for a good reason, though. The trade war means the UK economy is forecast to grow less.
This lower growth is what’s making observers think the Bank will cut rates sooner – making borrowing cheaper can lead to more spending. Increased spending can stimulate economic growth.
What does this all mean for you?
Some debts, like credit card bills, will become a bit cheaper.
Mortgages
Crucially for anyone soon to re-fix their rate, this means mortgage costs are falling.
Already, the typical two and five-year fixed rate deals are coming down, according to data from financial information company Moneyfacts.
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After weeks where the average rate would fall only once or twice, there have been larger and daily falls, the data shows.
As of Thursday, the typical rate for a five-year deal is 5.14%, and 5.29% for the average two-year fixed mortgage.
If the interest rate expectations remain, by the end of the year, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 4.3% if a person is borrowing 75% of the property’s value, according to analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Filling up your car
Another positive that’s motivated by a negative is the reduced fuel cost to the motorist of filling up their vehicle.
The oil price fell due to rising fears of a recession in the world’s biggest economy. Now that those concerns have somewhat subsided, the oil price has remained comparatively low at $63.75 for a barrel of the benchmark Brent crude.
It’s far below the average price of $80 from last year.
This lower cost is likely to filter down to cheaper prices at the pump within days as the sharp oil price drops hit at the end of last week.
Lower oil costs could help bring down costs overall, lowering inflation, as oil is still used in many parts of the supply chain.
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Lower interest rates mean falling savings rates, so savers can expect to get less of a return in the coming months.
Anyone with a stocks and shares ISA (Individual Savings Account) is likely to get a shock when they see the decline in their returns.
Image: A display shows the sharp rise of the Nikkei stock index in Tokyo. Pic: AP
Holidays
It’s not the best time to be heading off on a trip to a country that uses the euro. The pound hasn’t strayed far from buying €1.16, a low last seen in August.
It means your pound doesn’t go as far, as you’re getting less euro.
Against the dollar, however, sterling has risen to $1.29.
The exchange rate had been higher in the immediate wake of Mr Trump’s tariff announcement as the dollar value sank. At that point, you could briefly have bought $1.32 for a pound.
Supermarket shopping
Helpfully, the UK’s biggest and most popular UK supermarket, Tesco, updated us that it expects tariffs will have a “relatively small impact”.
The world’s most valuable company, and first to be valued at $4trn (£2.9trn), beat market expectations in keenly anticipated financial results.
Microchip maker Nvidia recorded revenues of $46.7bn (£34.6bn) in just three months up to July, latest financial data from the company showed, slightly better than Wall Street observers had expected.
The company’s performance is seen as a bellwether for artificial intelligence (AI) demand, with investors paying close attention to see whether the hype is overblown or if significant investment will pay off.
Originally a creator of gaming graphics hardware, Nvidia’s chips help power AI capability – and the UK’s most powerful supercomputer.
Nvidia’s graphics processors underpin products such as ChatGPT from OpenAI and Gemini from Google.
Other tech giants – Microsoft, Meta and Amazon – make up Nvidia’s biggest customers and are paying large sums to embed AI into their products.
Why does it matter?
Nvidia has been central to the boom in AI development and the surge in tech stock valuations, which has seen stock markets reach record highs.
It represents about 8% of the value of the US S&P 500 stock market index of companies relied on to be stable and profitable.
Strong results will continue to fuel record highs in the market. Conversely, results that fail to live up to the hype could trigger a market tumble.
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Nvidia itself saw its share price rise more than 40% over the past year. Its value impacts anyone with cash in the US stock market, such as pension funds.
The S&P 500 rose 14% over the past year, and the tech-company-heavy NASDAQ gained 21%, largely thanks to Nvidia.
As such, its earnings can move markets as much as major economic or monetary policy announcements, like an interest rate decision.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer with NVIDIA chief Huang at London Tech Week. Pic: AP
What next?
Revenue rises are forecast to continue to rise as Nvidia said it expected a rise to roughly $54bn (£40bn) in the next three months, more than the $53.14bn (£39.3bn) anticipated by analysts.
This excludes any potential shipments to China as export of Nvidia’s H20 chip, designed with the Biden administration’s export crackdown on advanced AI powering chips in mind, had been banned under US national security grounds.
But in recent weeks, Nvidia and another chipmaker, AMD, reached an unprecedented agreement to pay the Trump administration a 15% portion of China sales in return for export licences to send chips to China.
There were no H20 sales at all to China in the second quarter of the year, the period for which results were released on Wednesday evening.
Previously, 13% of Nvidia’s revenue came from China, with nearly 50% coming from the US.
Market reaction
Despite the expectation-beating results, Nvidia shares were down in after-hours trading, as the massive revenue rises previously booked by the company were not repeated in the latest quarter.
Compared to a year ago, revenues rose 56% and 6% compared to the three months up to April.
The absence of Chinese sales in forecasts appeared to disappoint.
Ryanair staff are to get more money for spotting and charging for oversized baggage, the company’s chief executive has said.
Michael O’Leary said he made “absolutely no apology” for catching people who are “scamming the system”.
The reward for intercepting passengers travelling with bags larger than permitted will increase from €1.50 (£1.29) to €2.50 (£2.15) per bag in November, and the monthly €80 (£68.95) payment cap will be scrapped, Mr O’Leary said.
At present, the budget airline allows travellers a free 40cm x 30cm x 20cm bag, which can fit under the seat in front, and charges for further luggage up to 55cm x 40cm x 20cm in size.
Customers face fines of up to £75 for an oversized item if it is brought to the boarding gate.
“I make absolutely no apology for it whatsoever”, Mr O’Leary said.
“I am still mystified by the number of people with rucksacks who still think they’re going to get through the gate and we won’t notice the rucksack”, he added.
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Around 200,000 passengers per year are charged bag fees at airport gates.
“We have more work to do to get rid of them”, Mr O’Leary said.
“We are running a very efficient, very affordable, very low-cost airline, and we’re not letting anybody get in the way.”
The airline does not support a European Union proposal to ensure customers get a free cabin bag, he said.
Air fares
After a 7% fall in air fares for the year to 31 March, Mr O’Leary said he expected ticket prices to go back up this financial year.
“We expect to get most of last year’s 7% decline, but not all,” he told reporters in a news conference.
“We have sold about 70% of our September seats, but we have another 30% to sell, and it’s those last fares, what people pay for all those last-minute bookings through the remainder of September, that will ultimately determine what average airfares are.”
A larger than expected hike in the energy price cap from October is largely down to higher costs being imposed by the government.
The typical sum households face paying for gas and electricity when using direct debit is to rise by 2% – or £2.93 per month – to £1,755, the energy watchdog Ofgem announced.
The latest bill settlement, covering the final quarter of the year until the next price review takes effect from January, will affect around 20 million households.
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The discount is set to add £15 to the average annual bill.
It will provide £150 in support to 2.7 million extra people this year, bringing the total number of beneficiaries to six million.
The balance is made up from money needed to upgrade the power network.
Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “While there is still more to do, we are seeing signs of a healthier market. There are more people on fixed tariffs saving themselves money, switching is rising as options for consumers increase, and we’ve seen increases in customer satisfaction, alongside a reduction in complaints.
“While today’s change is below inflation, we know customers might not be feeling it in their pockets. There are things you can do though – consider a fixed tariff as this could save more than £200 against the new cap. Paying by direct debit or smart pay as you go could also save you money.
“In the longer term, we will continue to see fluctuations in our energy prices until we are insulated from volatile international gas markets. That’s why we continue to work with government and the sector to diversify our energy mix to reduce the reliance on markets we do not control.”
The looming price cap lift will leave bills around the same sort of level they were in October last year but it will take hold at a time when overall inflation is higher.
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Food price increases, also partly blamed on government measures such as the national insurance contributions hike imposed on employers, have led the main consumer prices index to a current level of 3.8%.
It is predicted to rise to at least 4% in the coming months, further squeezing household budgets.
Ministers argue that efforts to make the UK less reliant on natural gas, through investment in renewable power sources, will help bring down bills in future.
Energy minister Michael Shanks said: “We know that any price rise is a concern for families. Wholesale gas prices remain 75% above their levels before Russia invaded Ukraine. That is the fossil fuel penalty being paid by families, businesses and our economy.
“That is why the only answer for Britain is this government’s mission to get us off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel prices and onto clean, homegrown power we control, to bring down bills for good.
“At the same time, we are determined to take urgent action to support vulnerable families this winter. That includes expanding the £150 Warm Home Discount to 2.7 million more households and stepping up our overhaul of the energy system to increase protections for customers.”