Only three weeks into the season, Notre Dame and Clemson have dropped out of the playoff picture with two losses each. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame (0-2) now has a 6% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. Clemson (1-2) has a 4% chance.

That makes room for somebody else.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with “Would be in” status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with “Work to do” is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which would mean a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that “Would be out” is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5

SEC

Spotlight: Texas. In the latest top 12 projection, the No. 12 Longhorns would be out of the playoff to make room for projected American champion South Florida. Let that sink in for a minute: The most hyped team in America this preseason is now projected to watch the playoff from home. ESPN Analytics gives Texas the fourth-best chance to reach the SEC championship game (26%) behind Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. The Longhorns’ season-opening road loss to Ohio State isn’t the problem — it’s the product on the field. Quarterback Arch Manning has a QBR of 49.6, No. 88 in the country. He completed 44% of his passes against UTEP on Saturday and threw an interception in the end zone. It’s not just Manning. Penalties. Third-down conversions. Red zone efficiency (or lack thereof). ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win each of its remaining games except the Nov. 15 trip to Georgia. If that comes to fruition, and Texas finishes as a two-loss SEC team without a conference title, the Longhorns will likely be in the selection committee’s top 12. Whether they are seeded in the playoff, though, depends on if they can improve enough to be ranked in the top 10, where there’s no danger of getting knocked out in favor of the fourth- and fifth-highest-ranked conference champions that might be ranked outside of the top 12.

The enigma: Ole Miss. The Rebels have won back-to-back SEC games against Kentucky and Arkansas, and now have the second-best chance to reach the conference championship game behind Georgia, according to ESPN Analytics. They also have the fourth-best chance (60.1%) to reach the playoff behind Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon, but they’re about to get into the heart of their most difficult stretch. Ole Miss might have a sneaky tricky game on Saturday when it hosts Tulane, which is competing for a playoff spot and would get a huge résumé boost from beating the Rebels on the road. If the Rebels win, they’d have a critical head-to-head win against what could be the American champs, which would keep them ahead of the Green Wave on Selection Day. There’s no break after that before hosting LSU on Sept. 27. ESPN’s FPI projects Ole Miss will win each of its remaining games, though, except for the Oct. 18 trip to Georgia. If that unfolds, and the Rebels have wins against Tulane, LSU and Oklahoma, they should be in the playoff — and possibly see Georgia again in the SEC title game.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina

Big Ten

Spotlight: Illinois. The Illini are here for a second straight week because at No. 11 in the weekly prediction, they’d get elbowed out during the playoff seeding process for projected Big 12 champ Iowa State. The Cyclones would be guaranteed a spot as one of the committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions, but because they are ranked outside of the top 12 — along with projected American champ South Florida — the teams ranked No. 11 and No. 12 would be replaced. Illinois has a huge opportunity looming Saturday at Indiana, where it can further assert itself as a contender in both the Big Ten and the playoff conversation. Indiana, which was featured in this space as last week’s enigma, is also 3-0 with a shot to return to the CFP for a second straight season under coach Curt Cignetti. If Illinois wins, its chance to reach the Big Ten title game will increase to 14%. If the Illini lose, that drops to 3%. According to ESPN Analytics, Indiana has a 62.8% chance to win the game. It’s the start of a season-defining stretch for Illinois, as ESPN Analytics projects it will lose three of its next four games (at Indiana, Sept. 27 vs. USC and Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State).

The enigma: USC. ESPN’s computers like the Trojans, projecting USC to win every game except for its Nov. 22 trip to Oregon. USC has quietly been winning in the shadows of the Big Ten favorites — Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon — but it avoids both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions during the regular season. That doesn’t mean its schedule is easy. USC travels to Illinois, hosts Michigan and travels to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18 — a team that is under enormous pressure to win out. If the computers are right, though, and USC is undefeated heading into Autzen to face the Ducks in the regular-season finale, the Big Ten narrative could get flipped in Lincoln Riley’s fourth season. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC has the fifth-best chance in the country to reach the CFP (57.9%).

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State

Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC

Would be out: Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Following its win against Clemson, Georgia Tech now has the second-best chance to reach the ACC title game (39.9%) behind Miami (67.8%). ESPN Analytics projects the Jackets will win each of their remaining games except for the regular-season finale against rival Georgia — a playoff team they pushed to eight overtimes last year. With two September wins against Power 4 teams Colorado and Clemson, Georgia Tech isn’t flying under the radar, but it still falls under the “more work to do” category below because its best wins came against teams that are now 1-2. If Georgia Tech wins the ACC, it’s a playoff lock, but if it doesn’t — and its only two losses are to Georgia and whatever ranked opponent it faces in the ACC title game (Florida State or Miami?) — the committee will have a debate about the two-loss ACC runner-up. Georgia Tech’s number of wins against ranked opponents depends on if Clemson can get itself together. The Yellow Jackets currently have the 63rd-toughest remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They don’t play the ACC’s toughest teams — Miami, Florida State or SMU. Speaking of the Mustangs …

The enigma: SMU. The Mustangs have a much more difficult path to the playoff than last year. SMU already lost a tough, double-overtime home game to Baylor in Week 2. Beyond that, it has two wins against Missouri State (a 1-2 Conference USA team) and FCS opponent East Texas A&M (0-2). So, the picture is still blurry for last year’s ACC runner-up. It will get much clearer on Saturday at TCU, a game that will create separation for the winner with a head-to-head nonconference tiebreaker. ESPN Analytics gives TCU a 67.4% chance to win, and if SMU goes 2-2 in September, a second straight playoff appearance will be highly unlikely. A Mustangs victory on Saturday, though, could wind up being one of the better nonconference wins of the season and help SMU compete for an at-large spot. It still plays Clemson and Miami during the regular season, and ESPN Analytics gives SMU less than a 50% chance to win each of those games.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Florida State, Miami

Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, SMU

Would be out: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 12

Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging on here, but by only a thread after a choppy performance against Arkansas State. Iowa State was clinging to a 17-16 lead in the fourth quarter before adding a late touchdown, and its position on the bubble is similarly precarious. ESPN Analytics gives the Cyclones the sixth-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (15.3%), but here’s the thing — there are seven teams in the Big 12 with at least a 10% chance to play for the conference title. Iowa State continues to lead the league in the weekly projection because its wins against Iowa and a beleaguered K-State team are still better than what the other contenders have on their résumés. At least so far. The Cyclones have a week off before hosting Arizona.

The enigma: Utah. Iowa State is leading the résumé debate, but Utah and Texas Tech have looked like the better teams against weaker competition. We’ll learn which to take more seriously Saturday when they play each other. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah currently has the best chance to make the Big 12 title game (40.1%) and win the league (24.6%). Saturday, though, will be the Utes’ first real test. Utah’s wins have come against a UCLA team that just fired its head coach, Cal Poly and Wyoming. But the Utes have scored at least 30 points in each game while allowing no more than 10. If Utah beats the Red Raiders, it will have a much-needed cushion for a tricky road trip to BYU on Oct. 18. If Utah wins the Big 12, it will lock up a playoff spot, but if the Utes have two losses and no title, they’ll have a difficult time impressing the committee with the rest of their schedule.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Iowa State

Work to do: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah

Would be out: Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Kansas

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. Following an 0-2 start, the Irish dropped out of the most recent top 12 prediction. The Irish no longer control their playoff path; they need to win out and get some help from other contenders losing. It’s not impossible, but it’s more difficult as an independent. Notre Dame doesn’t have the chance to earn a guaranteed spot as a conference champion, so it has to impress the committee with its 12-game season. And its two best chances against ranked opponents are already lost. Notre Dame’s chances of reaching the playoff dropped to 6% after its home loss to Texas A&M.

Group of 5

Spotlight: South Florida. The Allstate Playoff Predictor likes Memphis, giving the Tigers the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the playoff (27.5%), but the selection committee doesn’t look ahead. It looks back, and so far, South Florida’s wins against Boise State and Florida still trump what any other Group of 5 contender has on its résumé. It didn’t help that South Florida lost at Miami in convincing fashion, but the Bulls don’t have to beat the Canes to reach the playoff — they have to win the American. This will settle itself on the field when South Florida plays at Memphis on Oct. 25, but the Bulls don’t play Tulane during the regular season. And the Green Wave might be the biggest threat to South Florida’s place in the playoff conversation.

The enigma: Tulane. The Green Wave have a chance to usurp South Florida as the Group of 5’s top playoff contender Saturday at Ole Miss. If Tulane can knock off a top-15 SEC team to add to wins against Northwestern and Duke, the Green Wave will have the best résumé in the Group of 5. Tulane also travels to Memphis on a Friday night (Nov. 7). ESPN Analytics projects those two teams will meet in the American championship game, with Tulane having the second-best chance to win the conference (21.5%). Where it gets interesting is if the Green Wave don’t — and their only loss is in the conference championship game. No other Group of 5 team would have as strong a case for an at-large bid without a conference title as Tulane because no Group of 5 contender has a more difficult game than Tulane’s trip to Ole Miss. ESPN Analytics gives the Rebels an 86.8% chance to win. That result would make winning the league imperative for the Green Wave.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida

Work to do: Tulane, UNLV, Navy, Memphis

Two teams are set to meet Saturday night in front of a full-throated, sold-out crowd, with NBC broadcasting the game to a national audience.

One team made the College Football Playoff in 2024, and remains a lightning rod for reaction around the sport. The other won 10 games last season, finished No. 16 in the AP poll and returns an accomplished group of stars on both sides of the ball. Both coaches have won championships and individual awards, including a sweep of the 2024 national coaching honors for one, and neither is boring behind a microphone. Both teams invested greatly in their quarterbacks, veteran transfers with NFL aspirations and are featuring two of the nation’s top pass rushers. They enter this week ranked Nos. 13 and 16, respectively, in colleague Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, ahead of LSU, Michigan and others.

There are enough boxes checked to place Saturday’s matchup on the national radar, capturing interest from beyond the two fan bases, their shared region and even their stretched-out conference. But here’s the twist: The teams are the Indiana Hoosiers and Illinois Fighting Illini. Indiana won a team-record 11 games last season but still has the most losses (715) in FBS history. Illinois is seeking consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in team history, as well as its first AP top 10 finish since 1989. Illinois-Indiana hasn’t been a matchup of ranked teams since 1950 — “I was shocked at that,” Illinois coach Bret Bielema said — and Saturday will mark the first game of AP top-20 teams in Bloomington, Indiana, since 1987.

The pairing of teams might not scream national showcase, even though the evidence behind the pairing does.

“​​When a newbie like us breaks into the status quo, that’s going to create some waves,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti told ESPN. “A team [that] comes out of nowhere.”

Games like No. 9 Illinois visiting No. 19 Indiana on Saturday night are taking on new and greater meaning in the expanded College Football Playoff era. The outcome in Bloomington will impact the Big Ten’s playoff pecking order, which Indiana cracked in 2024 but remains heavy with brand-name programs such as No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Oregon, all CFP incumbents.

Those involved in these matchups don’t minimize their significance.

“Big,” Bielema said of the Indiana game this summer. “Huge.”

But do mega matchups featuring, for lack of a better term, typically middle-class teams get the billing they deserve? Does the value placed on them vary because of their leagues or other factors? What’s clear is that these types of games are only going to increase, as more teams — regardless of their history — are set to enter the CFP spotlight.

“We don’t do a good enough job of talking about that next tier of teams,” Nebraska Cornhuskers coach Matt Rhule told ESPN. “Illinois finishes 9-3 [last season] and they’re not in the same conversation as where I thought they should have been. If it’s not one of the premier names, people kind of downplay it a little bit.

“Sometimes, we just don’t recognize how good those next teams are.”

Jump to:
More under-the-radar games

For decades, the Big Ten operated under the “Big Two-Little Eight” label, as the league championship and a coveted Rose Bowl berth almost always came down to Ohio State and Michigan and their showdown in late November. Other teams began breaking the Buckeyes-Wolverines stranglehold in the 1980s — Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State — and the pattern continued into the 1990s with Wisconsin and Northwestern.

The past 25 years have included stretches when Ohio State or Michigan owned the spotlight — the Buckeyes won or shared five straight Big Ten titles beginning in 2005 and won four straight from 2017 to 2020, and Michigan followed with three straight conference championships and a national title in 2023. But other programs have had their moments, including Indiana’s incredible CFP run last season, Cignetti’s first as Hoosiers coach.

The challenge for attention and respect remains, though, for Big Ten teams without the historic brand recognition of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC, and more recently, Oregon. The SEC also has a group of heavyweights — Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee and now Oklahoma and Texas — but has more effectively promoted other teams with lower national profiles, such as Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Missouri.

“The biggest thing in that league, you really feel empowered to talk about SEC football,” said Bielema, who coached Arkansas from 2013 to 2017. “From the direction the commissioner gives you to the ADs to really the media, they kind of steer you down that, ‘We’re better than everybody else’ conversation. They really believe what they say, which is awesome. I just go back to, the last two or three years have been different in [the Big Ten] because of parity, because of the competition in our league.”

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti told ESPN that a goal of an expanded CFP proposal that’s heavier on automatic-qualifying spots — the so-called 4-4-2-2-1 model — is to reduce or remove the perception factor from matchups like Illinois-Indiana. Under the proposal, if the winner of Saturday’s game finishes third or fourth in the Big Ten behind two bigger-brand programs, it would automatically be in the CFP.

“They’re trying to say, ‘Oh, your upper echelon’s this, and your middle is this, and your bottom is this,’ but let’s go figure that out by playing the games and not burn these guys with the reputation of what happens when you lose a game because your program has been like this 10 years ago, so therefore, we don’t give you the benefit of doubt,” Petitti told ESPN in July. “That stuff happens, and we’ve got to get away from that.”

The remedy for respect is simple, coaches say: win the middle-class matchups and keep moving up.

“You look at what we did in 2019, going 11-2 and we were ranked in the top seven in the country,” Minnesota Golden Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said. “You get what you earn. When you’re winning eight, nine games at Minnesota, that’s really good, but when you’re comparing it to who’s in the playoff, it’s not as high as that.”

Several Big Ten coaches noted that the locations and demographics of the two conferences also factor into how certain programs and matchups are viewed.

“That’s conditioning over the years,” Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. “Again, the saying, ‘It just means more,’ there’s some reality to that, as we all know, because of location. That’s the only show in town, right? And I get that, and I understand that, but at the end of the day, it still comes down to what happens on the field.”

Added Cignetti: “You get respect when you win.”

In addition to the Illinois-Indiana clash, here are six other games featuring teams with similar profiles that have CFP implications and will provide an interesting temperature gauge with national interest.

SATURDAY

What’s at stake: A potential leg up in a crowded Big 12 title race with several other contenders (Arizona State, Kansas State) already having a loss or two.

Why you should care: Any reputable list of best programs never to have made the CFP would include Utah, which won Pac-12 championships in 2021 and 2022 and had AP top-4 finishes in 2004 and 2008. The Utes’ entry into the Big 12 was spoiled by quarterback injuries, but they have fixed the position with dynamic dual-threat transfer Devon Dampier, who belongs on the Heisman Trophy radar after recording 628 passing yards, 198 rushing yards and 7 passing touchdowns in his first three games as a Ute. Texas Tech, meanwhile, won the offseason in the Big 12 with historic investments in its roster, courtesy of super booster Cody Campbell. The Red Raiders have said anything less than their first trip to the Big 12 championship game will be a disappointment. They’re off to a blistering start, outscoring their first three opponents 174-35.

What’s at stake: A Tulane win would cement the top nonleague profile for the Group of 5 CFP contender, while Ole Miss can help its (likely) CFP at-large résumé.

Why you should care: The matchup is outside of league play but still carries meaning for both sides. Tulane already has wins against Big Ten (Northwestern) and ACC (Duke) opponents, and can significantly increase its CFP chances by upsetting Ole Miss in Oxford. Jon Sumrall, a former Rebels assistant, likely will be the top Group of 5 coaching candidate this winter and could be choosing among SEC opportunities. Despite losing top running back Makhi Hughes to the transfer portal, Tulane is averaging 222 rushing yards per game, as BYU transfer quarterback Jake Retzlaff has settled in nicely, especially as a runner. Ole Miss had the talent to reach the CFP in 2024 but might make the field this season, as it averages 44.7 points and 541.7 yards per game. The Rebels’ next three SEC games are against LSU (home), Georgia (road) and Oklahoma (road), but a win over Tulane will help their case for the CFP.

OCT. 4

What’s at stake: A potential 5-0 start and increased attention as a dark horse CFP contender in the Big Ten.

Why you should care: Nebraska fans might bristle at being grouped with some of the others here, but their team has fallen sharply from its national perch. The Huskers ended a seven-year bowl-less streak last season and are eying a significant step forward under coach Matt Rhule, who has overseen Year 3 breakthroughs at Temple (10-4 in 2015) and Baylor (11-3 in 2019). Sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola has looked very strong so far with eight touchdowns and no interceptions, while completing 76.6% of his passes. Michigan State also has seen development from its second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles, who has 656 passing yards and 6 touchdowns on 71.6% of his attempts. Both teams added transfer wide receivers to assist their quarterbacks. Nebraska first must get through Michigan, and Michigan State has a late-night kickoff at USC, but wins by both will add spice to this game.

OCT. 25

What’s at stake: A path to the CFP in the deep but seemingly wide-open SEC, and potentially the label of being this season’s Indiana.

Why you should care: The latest AP poll includes 11 SEC teams (five in the top 11), but no squad seems invincible, as Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M struggled defensively Saturday, while LSU is (ducks from Brian Kelly) still looking for a consistent run game. Texas, meanwhile, is trying to unlock quarterback Arch Manning‘s potential. The number of CFP spots creates lanes for teams like Vanderbilt, which has consecutive 24-point road wins against Virginia Tech and South Carolina, and can dream bigger than it ever has with quarterback Diego Pavia at the helm. Pavia leads a balanced offense, and Nick Rinaldi headlines a playmaking defense that has 23 tackles for loss. Missouri has been closer to the CFP, going 24-5 since the start of the 2023 season with a top-10 finish and a Cotton Bowl title in 2023. The Tigers’ transfer additions of quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Ahmad Hardy are working out very well so far.

NOV. 1

What’s at stake: Possibly becoming this year’s version of SMU in the ACC, especially with preseason favorite Clemson struggling (thanks in part to Georgia Tech).

Why you should care: Georgia Tech’s latest big-game upset win Saturday against Clemson stamped the Yellow Jackets as a team to watch in the CFP chase. Coach Brent Key’s bunch has seven wins against ranked opponents as an underdog during his tenure. The problem for Georgia Tech has been winning games like this, which might fly under the radar a bit. NC State has already beaten two ACC teams — the Virginia victory didn’t count in the conference standings — and has a fairly manageable league schedule before hosting the Yellow Jackets. These teams feature two of the more exciting offensive backfield tandems in Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes, and NC State quarterback CJ Bailey and running back Hollywood Smothers.

NOV. 8

What’s at stake: An important November win that could catapult one team toward the Big 12 championship game.

Why you should care: The Big 12 contender pool is predictably deep, although the league ultimately wants some separation to increase the chances for multiple CFP qualifiers. This week’s game in Salt Lake should provide some clarity, and it’s possible Iowa State and TCU are in different positions by the time they meet in Fort Worth, Texas. But ISU already has two wins against Power 4 opponents and is 2-0 in road or neutral-site games. Quarterback Rocco Becht is completing 65% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and only 1 interception, as he features tight ends Gabe Burkle and Benjamin Brahmer in the passing game. The Cyclones’ defense is once again stifling, allowing 14.3 points per game and generating pressure from different sources. TCU flexed in its opener at North Carolina, and quarterback Josh Hoover is completing 76.2% of his passes and getting some help in the backfield from UTSA transfer Kevorian Barnes and others.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning had a simple message and a promise: There will be better days ahead from him.

“I know the type of player that I am,” said Manning on Monday as he answered another round of questions about a poor outing in last week’s win over UTEP. “I know I’m going to play better and we’re going to be better as an offense.”

This week’s matchup with Sam Houston, a program in only its third season of FCS-level competition, would typically be an afterthought for the No. 8 team in the country.

But Manning’s poor play has turned the Longhorns’ final game before the Southeastern Conference schedule into a must-watch to see if he can deliver anything close to those preseason Heisman Trophy predictions.

If he struggles again, a suddenly doubtful fanbase will likely turn its worries into a five-alarm fire. And even if he plays well, the result and Manning’s stat line will likely be dismissed as coming against inferior competition.

Stats are one thing. Just passing the eye test this week would be a start.

Manning’s play so far has stoked the embers of doubt. He struggled badly in a season-opening loss to Ohio State. He started slow the next week but rallied with four touchdown passes against San Jose State.

His day against UTEP was downright rough. Manning was 11 of 25 passing for 114 yards with one touchdown and an interception. He had a streak of 10 consecutive incompletions. He side-armed some throws and missed open receivers. There were boos late in the first half.

Through three games, Manning is completing just 55% of his passes.

“It’s frustrating because I know I’m better than that,” Manning said. “But you know, we’re going to be better this week and get clicking on offense. I’m excited to get going.”

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian promised patience with a player hitting the first adversity of his career.

“Here’s a guy who’s had an awesome life, the way he’s grown up, the people he’s been surrounded by,” Sarkisian said. “I think you learn a lot about yourself through adversity and overcoming adversity. … When he gets on the other side of it, I think all of this is going to serve well not only for him, but for us as a team.”

Texas wide receiver Parker Livingstone caught three touchdown passes in the first two games. Manning badly overthrew him on a wide open route in the end zone against UTEP.

Livingstone said the wide receivers can help Manning by delivering more big plays when given the chance.

“When he throws us the ball, it’s our job to make a guy miss and create an explosive [play],” said Livingstone.