Trump trade war uncertainty threatens U.S. oil production
An oil pumpjack is seen in a field on April 08, 2025 in Nolan, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s trade war has thrown the oil market into deep uncertainty, triggering wild swings in crude prices, undermining investor confidence and jeopardizing domestic production.
U.S. crude oil hit a low of $55.12 on Wednesday, down 23% from the closing price on April 2 when Trump announced his sweeping plan to slap tariffs on more than 180 countries. The rapid pullback in prices threatens the president’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda as companies will struggle to boost output at profit.
But West Texas Intermediate staged a comeback after Trump suddenly reversed course Wednesday, announcing a 90-day pause on high tariffs for most trade partners with the exception of China. The U.S. benchmark swung 13% from its session low to close at $62.35 in response.
Trump’s decision to lower tariffs to 10% for most countries gave the market a temporary reprieve from fears of a spiraling trade war. But U.S. oil producers face an environment of “extreme uncertainty” that will make them hesitant about investment decisions, said Jim Burkhard, head of oil market research at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Weaker confidence
U.S. crude oil fell more than 4% on Thursday to under $60 a barrel as traders focused Trump’s decision to hike tariffs on China to an eye-watering 125%. And it’s unclear how negotiations with the dozens of countries that have gotten a reprieve will pan out.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices over the past month
“There’s a pause — the uncertainty has not gone away,” Burkhard said of Trump’s reversal. “Confidence about the future is weaker now than it was a month ago and prices are lower.”
“Can the U.S. negotiate with 70 countries all at once? I don’t think the chaos is over,” he said.
Trump’s on again, off again approach to tariffs is causing real damage, said Susan Bell, senior vice president of commodity markets at Rystad Energy. The safest option in times of uncertainty for asset-based businesses like oil companies is to reduce capital expenditures, Bell said.
“There’s a loss of confidence, not just in investment in the shale industry, but really investment in the United States,” she said.
Oil production threatened
Shale oil companies have driven the rapid growth of the U.S. into the world’s largest crude producer. These companies currently need U.S. crude prices to average at least $65 per barrel to drill new wells at a profit, according to executives at 81 companies surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
U.S. crude prices in the low $60s is the zone where companies may start drilling less over the next six months, Burkhard said. Producers will increasingly have to decide either to reduce lucrative returns for shareholders or scale back their activity in the oil patch, he said.
Some 50 rigs could get cut immediately with more potentially on the chopping block if prices remain at these levels, Bell said.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its price forecast for WTI to $58 by December 2025 and $51 by the end of next year. U.S. onshore oil growth would flatline if crude falls to range of $50 to $55 per barrel for a sustained period, said Walt Chancellor, an energy strategist at Macquarie Group.
Shale companies also face the threat of Trump’s steel tariffs potentially increasing the cost of new wells by 10%, Bell said. The companies would need even higher oil prices to drill new wells profitably, she said.
“It adds to costs at the time that their that oil prices are falling — it’s another hit,” Burkhard said of the steel tariffs.
U.S. shale producers were scathing in their criticism of Trump’s tariff policy in anonymous responses to the the Dallas Fed Energy Survey published in March.
One executive said “the administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets.” Trump’s call to “drill, baby, drill” is a “myth and a populist rallying cry,” the executive said. The president’s “tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal,” the person said, calling for “stability.”
“I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career,” another executive told the Dallas Fed.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged Tuesday that tumbling prices will worry oil producers. Wright, the founder and former CEO of natural gas fracking company Liberty Energy, argued that Trump will drive down producers’ costs by removing uncertainty around permitting and approving more pipelines and export terminals, allowing them to pump at lower prices.
“Lower prices are good for consumers, and as producers get lower and lower cost structure, they’re going to thrive at lower prices as well,” Wright told CNBC’s “Money Movers.” “What you’re seeing right now is the fear and uncertainty as the sausage is being made,” he said of Trump’s tariff policy.
The unpredictability caused by Trump’s tariffs has also hit the stock of the company Wright founded. Liberty’s shares are down 32% since April 2.
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British Columbia got its first 400 kW DC fast charger last week at Canadian C-store chain On The Run, but that’s not the good part. As part of a limited time offer, these chargers are FREE!
The Canadian convenience store chain just took the wraps off its new, ABB-developed, 400 kW chargers earlier this month, but they’re already planning to bring the ultra-fast 400 kW dispensers to at least four more locations in BC this spring, and have them online just in time for the summer road trip season – something On The Run hopes its customers will appreciate.
“The A400 charger delivers an enhanced customer experience, with reliability and performance from a 32-inch screen to higher power charging sessions and power sharing,” reads the company’s official announcement, via LinkedIn. “Download the Journie Rewards app to start the charge – free for a limited time.”
On The Run’s new 400 kW ABB DC fast chargers are compatible with CCS and CHAdeMO plugs, and can accommodate Tesla and other NACS-equipped vehicles with an adapter. That said, the company seems to imply that Tesla drivers in particular will have a maximum charging speed of “just” 50 kW, which feel hilarious (given the current state of affairs between Tesla and the Canadian government), but probably isn’t.
In addition to the ABB A400 400 kW units shown here, On The Run locations also employ the ABB Terra 184 dispensers rated at 180 kW. On The Run plans similar deployments at the four BC locations mentioned above, as well as two more each in Quebec and Ontario slated to go live towards the end of this year.
Electrek’s Take
Tesla’s controversial CEO Elon Musk once mocked 350 kW charging speed as being “for a child’s toy,” despite the fact that, nearly nine years later, his own cars and Superchargers can barely make it to 325 kW while others have sailed right on past. I made fun of that fact on the Quick Charge episode shown, above – and, while I do think it’s funny and relevant, the much more relevant piece of news here is that companies like BP Pulse, Revel, and Wallbox are actively deploying 400 kW solutions, today (while others hit the same mark as far back as 2017).
It’s just a fact: Tesla has fallen way behind.
SOURCE | IMAGES: On The Run, via Electric Autonomy.
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Terawatt Infrastructure‘s first medium- and heavy-duty electric charging truck stop in California is now online, in Rancho Dominguez.
Located 12 miles north of the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, the private Rancho Dominguez site, which is shared among multiple fleets, will support electric trucking fleet operations in and out of the largest container ports in the US.
First customers include Dreaded Trucking, Hight Logistics, PepsiCo, Quick Container Drayage, Southern Counties Express, Tradelink Transport, and WestCoast Trucking & Warehousing.
Terawatt’s electric charging truck stop features 20 pull-through and bobtail DC fast charging stalls with a capacity of 7 megawatts (MW), enabling charging for up to 125 trucks per day using a simple reservations system. Terawatt’s site features a proprietary charge management system, in-house technicians, 24/7 customer service, and onsite parts management.
“This launch underscores growing collaboration between enterprises, shippers, carriers, and charging infrastructure providers to advance sustainable technologies across logistics and transportation operations, especially in the medium and heavy-duty sectors,” said Neha Palmer, CEO and cofounder of Terawatt. Palmer added that the company will bring another charging site online in Rialto, California, in June.
Terawatt joined some of the world’s largest shippers and carriers in September 2024 to launch the I-10 Consortium heavy-duty EV operations pilot, the “first-ever US over-the-road electrified corridor.” Terawatt is providing charging infrastructure, including software, operations, and maintenance support at six of its owned charging hubs along the I-10 corridor.
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In its most aggressive attack against offshore wind yet, the Trump administration halted the $5 billion Empire Wind 1, already under construction off New York’s coast.
Norwegian developer Equinor announced yesterday that it received notice from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) ordering Empire Wind 1 to halt all activities on the outer continental shelf until BOEM has completed its review. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum posted this tweet yesterday:
Burgum gave no indication of what insufficiencies there were in the approval process for the fully permitted offshore wind project, despite Trump’s recent declaration of a national energy emergency that speeds up permitting processes.
The commercial lease for the 810-megawatt (MW) Empire Wind 1’s federal offshore wind area was signed in March 2017 during the first Trump administration. It was approved by the Biden administration in November 2023 and began construction in 2024.
The project is being developed under contract with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). Empire Wind 1, which was due to come online in 2027, has the potential to power 500,000 New York homes.
“Halting construction of fully permitted energy projects is the literal opposite of an energy abundance agenda,” said American Clean Power Association CEO Jason Grumet in a statement. “We encourage the administration to quickly address perceived inadequacies in the prior permit approvals so that this project can complete construction and bring much-needed power to the grid.”
As Electrek reported, Equinor secured $3 billion to finance Empire Wind 1 in January. The total amount drawn under the project finance term loan facility as of March 31 was around $1.5 billion.
As of March 31, Empire Wind has a gross book value of around $2.5 billion, including South Brooklyn Marine Terminal (pictured above), which was expected to become the US’s largest dedicated port facility for offshore wind.
In response to BOEM’s stop work order, New York Governor Kathy Hochul issued the following statement:
Every single day, I’m working to make energy more affordable, reliable and abundant in New York and the federal government should be supporting those efforts rather than undermining them. Empire Wind 1 is already employing hundreds of New Yorkers, including 1,000 good-paying union jobs as part of a growing sector that has already spurred significant economic development and private investment throughout the state and beyond.
As Governor, I will not allow this federal overreach to stand. I will fight this every step of the way to protect union jobs, affordable energy and New York’s economic future.
Equinor says it’s considering appealing BOEM’s order.
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