An oil pumpjack is seen in a field on April 08, 2025 in Nolan, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s trade war has thrown the oil market into deep uncertainty, triggering wild swings in crude prices, undermining investor confidence and jeopardizing domestic production.
U.S. crude oil hit a low of $55.12 on Wednesday, down 23% from the closing price on April 2 when Trump announced his sweeping plan to slap tariffs on more than 180 countries. The rapid pullback in prices threatens the president’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda as companies will struggle to boost output at profit.
Trump’s decision to lower tariffs to 10% for most countries gave the market a temporary reprieve from fears of a spiraling trade war. But U.S. oil producers face an environment of “extreme uncertainty” that will make them hesitant about investment decisions, said Jim Burkhard, head of oil market research at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Weaker confidence
U.S. crude oil fell more than 4% on Thursday to under $60 a barrel as traders focused Trump’s decision to hike tariffs on China to an eye-watering 125%. And it’s unclear how negotiations with the dozens of countries that have gotten a reprieve will pan out.
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West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices over the past month
“There’s a pause — the uncertainty has not gone away,” Burkhard said of Trump’s reversal. “Confidence about the future is weaker now than it was a month ago and prices are lower.”
“Can the U.S. negotiate with 70 countries all at once? I don’t think the chaos is over,” he said.
Trump’s on again, off again approach to tariffs is causing real damage, said Susan Bell, senior vice president of commodity markets at Rystad Energy. The safest option in times of uncertainty for asset-based businesses like oil companies is to reduce capital expenditures, Bell said.
“There’s a loss of confidence, not just in investment in the shale industry, but really investment in the United States,” she said.
Oil production threatened
Shale oil companies have driven the rapid growth of the U.S. into the world’s largest crude producer. These companies currently need U.S. crude prices to average at least $65 per barrel to drill new wells at a profit, according to executives at 81 companies surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
U.S. crude prices in the low $60s is the zone where companies may start drilling less over the next six months, Burkhard said. Producers will increasingly have to decide either to reduce lucrative returns for shareholders or scale back their activity in the oil patch, he said.
Some 50 rigs could get cut immediately with more potentially on the chopping block if prices remain at these levels, Bell said.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its price forecast for WTI to $58 by December 2025 and $51 by the end of next year. U.S. onshore oil growth would flatline if crude falls to range of $50 to $55 per barrel for a sustained period, said Walt Chancellor, an energy strategist at Macquarie Group.
Shale companies also face the threat of Trump’s steel tariffs potentially increasing the cost of new wells by 10%, Bell said. The companies would need even higher oil prices to drill new wells profitably, she said.
“It adds to costs at the time that their that oil prices are falling — it’s another hit,” Burkhard said of the steel tariffs.
U.S. shale producers were scathing in their criticism of Trump’s tariff policy in anonymous responses to the the Dallas Fed Energy Survey published in March.
One executive said “the administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets.” Trump’s call to “drill, baby, drill” is a “myth and a populist rallying cry,” the executive said. The president’s “tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal,” the person said, calling for “stability.”
“I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career,” another executive told the Dallas Fed.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged Tuesday that tumbling prices will worry oil producers. Wright, the founder and former CEO of natural gas fracking company Liberty Energy, argued that Trump will drive down producers’ costs by removing uncertainty around permitting and approving more pipelines and export terminals, allowing them to pump at lower prices.
“Lower prices are good for consumers, and as producers get lower and lower cost structure, they’re going to thrive at lower prices as well,” Wright told CNBC’s “Money Movers.” “What you’re seeing right now is the fear and uncertainty as the sausage is being made,” he said of Trump’s tariff policy.
The unpredictability caused by Trump’s tariffs has also hit the stock of the company Wright founded. Liberty’s shares are down 32% since April 2.
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The next generation of electric vehicle batteries will be here sooner than expected. After opening the first-of-its-kind pilot plant for its all-solid-state EV batteries this week, SK On said it plans to bring the breakthrough battery tech to market ahead of schedule.
SK On’s all-solid-state EV batteries will be here in 2029
If you haven’t heard it by now, all-solid-state EV batteries are viewed as a potential game-changer, promising to unlock longer driving range, faster charging times, and better overall performance than the lithium-ion batteries used today.
Although the new battery tech shows promise, producing it on a large scale has not been so easy. That could soon change, according to leading global battery maker SK On.
After opening its new pilot plant in South Korea on September 15, SK On said it will bring all-solid-state EV batteries to market a year ahead of schedule.
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SK On now plans to commercialize its ASSBs by 2029. Initially, the company aims to launch the batteries with an energy density of 800 Wh/L. Looking further out, SK On said it plans to offer all-solid-state batteries with an energy density of 1,000 Wh/L.
SK On President and CEO Seok-hee Lee (center), SK On Chief Technology Officer Jang-weon Rhee (fourth from left), Head of SK On Future Technology Institute Ki-soo Park (sixth from left), Country Manager of Solid Power Korea Andreas Maier (second from left) and other guests attend the ribbon cutting ceremony for SK On’s all-solid-state battery pilot plant completion at SK On Future Technology Institute in Daejeon on September 15, 2025 (Source: SK Innovation)
During the opening ceremony, SK ON’s CEO, Seok-hee Lee, said, “This pilot plant will serve as a cornerstone for SK to leap forward,” adding the company remains “at the forefront of commercializing all-solid-state batteries.”
SK On said the 4,600-square-meter (50,000 sq ft) facility utilizes its own unique “Warm Isostatic Press (WIP)-free” process, the first to employ this technology in Korea.
By applying pressure to electrodes at higher temperatures, SK On said its WIP process improves density and performance.
SK On EV battery roadmap display at InterBattery 2025 (Source: SK Innovation)
A WIP tech is a process that applies pressure to electrodes at higher temperatures to improve density and performance. However, since it requires a cell-sealing process, it isn’t easy to produce at a mass scale.
SK On said its unique cell design addresses the issue while reducing resistance within the electrodes. The company also improved the bonding between electrodes and solid electrolytes, resulting in “smoother ion transport, more stable charging and discharging, and longer cycle life.”
(Source: SK Innovation)
The all-solid-state pilot plant is located at the SK On Institute of Future Technology in Daejeon, which is about 150 km from Seoul. Several high-profile executives attended the event, including Andrea Maier, Head of Solid Power Korea. SK On and Solid Power teamed up last year to accelerate the promising new battery tech.
SK On will build prototypes at the facility to test quality and performance ahead of mass-scale production. The new pilot line will mainly be used to develop all-solid-state batteries, but SK said it will dedicate some lines to lithium-metal batteries as well.
SK Innovation executives drive the Hyundai IONIQ 9 and Genesis electrified G80 equipped with SK On batteries (Source: SK Innovation)
The battery giant filed patents for its unique new technology in South Korea and internationally. SK On is one of the many battery manufacturers, automakers, and other startups chasing the “holy grail” of EV batteries.
Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Nissan, to name a few, are developing solid-state EV technology. Leading battery makers, including CATL, BYD, and LG Energy Solutions, are also planning to bring the new tech to market.
Just last week, Mercedes-Benz announced it drove a modified EQS, equipped with solid-state batteries, for 1,205 km (750 miles) on a single charge. And the EQS still had 85 miles of range remaining.
Which company will be the first to launch solid-state batteries on a mass scale? According to SAIC MG, the new MG4, launched last month, is “the world’s first mass-produced semi-solid-state” electric vehicle. It starts at just 99,800 yuan ($14,000) in China.
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NHTSA has launched an investigation into Tesla over potential malfunctions of its door handles, resulting in people being stuck in the cars.
Tesla uses frameless doors with electronic door handles. The button to open the doors first causes the window to lower slightly, allowing the door to open. Then, it electronically unlatches, enabling the door to be swung open.
There’s also a manual latch, but it has been known to be somewhat hard to locate for people who didn’t read the owner’s manual, which is most people.
If there’s an electronic failure, especially after a crash, it can result in occupants having issues exiting the vehicle when they are in a state of panic.
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Now, the NHTSA says it has been notified of electronic door handles that may cause a potential issue, specifically with the 2021 Model Y.
The automotive regulator claims to have received nine reports of parents being locked out of their vehicles when going to get their children in the back:
The Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) has received nine Vehicle Owners Questionnaires (VOQs) reporting an inability to open doors on Model Year (MY) 2021 Tesla Model Y vehicles. The most commonly reported scenarios involved parents exiting the vehicle after a drive cycle in order to remove a child from the back seat or placing a child in the back seat before starting a drive cycle. In those events, the parents were unable to reopen a door to regain access to the vehicle. Four of these VOQs reported resorting to breaking a window to regain entry into the vehicle. Although Tesla vehicles have manual door releases inside of the cabin, in these situations, a child may not be able to access or operate the releases even if the vehicle’s driver is aware of them. As a result, in these instances, an occupant who remains inside a vehicle in this condition may be unable to be rapidly retrieved by persons outside of the vehicle. Entrapment in a vehicle is particularly concerning in emergency situations, such as when children are entrapped in a hot vehicle. For awareness, NHTSA has a Child Heatstroke Campaign that highlights the dangers to children entrapped in hot vehicles.
Tesla reportedly changed the 12-volt battery in the cars involved in those reports, but NHTSA is concerned that there were no warnings that the 12-volt battery was about to fail, which the agency says can be dangerous.
While there’s a process to get the doors unlocked in this situation, NHTSA beleives it might be too complicated and not accessible enough:
The Tesla Owner’s Manual “Jump Starting” and “Opening the Hood with No Power” sections describe a multi-step process for restoring power to the electronic door locks in order to enable their operation from outside of the vehicle. This process requires applying 12 volts DC from a separate power source to two different points accessible from the vehicle’s exterior. The subject incidents suggest that this process may not be readily available to owners or well known. For instances where an occupant is able to access and operate interior door handles, the Tesla Owner’s Manual “Opening Doors with No Power” section identifies the manual door releases inside of the vehicle’s cabin.
The investigation is currently specifically about the 2021 Tesla Model Y, which includes a population of about 174,290 units in the US.
NHTSA’s inquiry has launched after Bloomberg released a report about the issues that come with electronic door handles. The report was about the broader use of electronic door handles in the auto industry, but it specifically highligthed Tesla due to its extensive use of the technology.
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It’s a simple fact that SUVs and crossovers have out-Darwined the station wagon. And, sure – the taller driving position offers road presence, but when it comes to real-world utility, a proper long-roof wagon can hang with the best of them while offering Teutonic driving dynamics no SUV can match. All it would take to spark a wagon revival in the US is one sleek, solidly built, and affordable entry from a mainstream brand. And VW already has the perfect candidate waiting in the wings. Meet the Škoda Vision O (Passat badges not included).
What if Volkswagen corporate gave those frustrated dealers an olive branch? Something true to the brand, with a little brand heritage, that was genuinely compelling? Something like a new electric station wagon with a familiar name and a starting price tag somewhere south of $39,999.
That’s where the new Škoda Vision 0 could come in as an affordable, practical, and stylish wagon that could spearhead a return to the sort of people’s car identity that Volkswagen of America so desperately needs.
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Be not afraid
Skoda Vision 0 concept; via Volkswagen.
When Volkswagen brought its Space Vizzion concept to the LA Auto Show a few years back, they called it a lot of things, from an SUV to a sporty crossover – but they were clearly afraid to call it a wagon. Office lore even has it that Seth Weintraub, the Blogfather, kept going around to the VW people saying, “Nice wagon you’ve got there!” and none of them laughed.
If you ever needed proof that VW’s American brand people had lost the plot, that might have been it. But the lukewarm reception they got for the low-riding long-roof VW with a luxury price tag convinced them Americans really didn’t want wagons.
By and large, that may be true. But VW is hovering around “just” 4% of US market share, and I’d bet that a lot of those four-percenters are buying VWs because of their fond memories of their old GTi or VR6 Jetta – not because they’ve bought into Volkswagen’s premium brand ambitions.
In Europe, Škoda is positioned as a value brand. Not cheap, per se – but not a luxury or status brand, either. Exactly how VW is still seen by many millions of Americans. If Volkswagen of America would be willing to wear that hat again, a re-badged Škoda (part of VW Group) could fit the bill. Here’s how Škoda’s CEO sees the wagon, itself:
At Škoda, our commitment to our customers – who have trusted us as leaders in the estate segment since 2016 – drives us to deliver the Vision O: a blend of innovative design, over 650 Liters of luggage space, autonomous driving capabilities, and an intuitive AI assistant. This vehicle transforms every journey into an effortless, empowering experience while advancing our sustainability goals and elevating our modern, solid, design principles.
Sounds great. And, built off of something like the ID.4’s SSP (Scalable Systems Platform) with the same specs as the ID.4, it could easily match that vehicle’s ~209 miles of range from the RWD, 62 kWh version, or 263/291 miles from the 82 kWh AWD/RWD versions.
On a lower, sleeker wagon that’s punching a smaller hole in the air? An SSP-based Passat wagon could even hit that magic “300 mile range” number. With the ID.4’s $40,000-ish price tag, I think that would be a real winner – at least in the context of VW’s Arteon, that sold just 5,500 units in its best year (2021).
I think VW could expect to sell 20,000 of them comfortably – putting them ahead of something like a Cybertruck in terms of outright sales and, hopefully, reminding the company’s marketing people of something they knew inherently back in the mid 1990s when they brought back the New Beetle: a halo car doesn’t have to be expensive, it just has to be loved.
People would love their Passat wagons.
That’s my take, anyway – but I’m sure I’m missing something. If you can think of a reason why a stylish electric station wagon from Volkswagen aimed right at the heart of the middle class wouldn’t make for a solid halo car, scroll down to the comments section and let me know what it is.
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