Apple is left without a life raft as Trump’s China trade war intensifies, analysts warn
People shop at an Apple store in Grand Central Station in New York on April 4, 2025.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
Though U.S. President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on many of his “reciprocal tariffs” has given some firms and investors respite, America’s largest company, Apple, hasn’t been so lucky.
The Cupertino-based tech giant is heavily reliant on supply chains in China, which has seen its levies only continue to ramp up, with the U.S.’ cumulative tariff rate on Chinese goods now standing at 145%.
Thus, despite the U.S. trade situation looking more promising for much of the world, experts say that U.S.-China negotiations remain the most important variable for Apple.
“Apple could be set back many years by these tariffs,” Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC, adding that the company had “had their boat flipped over in the ocean with no life rafts.”
The smartphone maker has been diversifying its supply chain from China for years, but out of the 77 million iPhones it shipped to the U.S. last year, nearly 80% came from China, according to data from Omdia.
The tech-focused research firm estimates that under current tariffs, Apple could be forced to increase its prices on phones sold to the U.S. from China by around 85% in order to maintain its margins.
“When the original China tariffs were at 54%, that kind of impact was serious, but manageable … but, it wouldn’t make financial sense for Apple to raise prices based on the current tariffs,” said Le Xuan Chiew, research manager at Omdia.
Few options
Apple reportedly shipped 600 tons of iPhones, or as many as 1.5 million units, from India to the U.S. before Trump’s new tariffs took effect, according to Reuters and The Times of India.
Apple and two of its iPhone producers did not respond to a CNBC inquiry.
Chiew said while this news is unconfirmed, stockpiling would’ve been the best option for the company to quickly mitigate the tariff impacts and buy themselves some time.
However, it’s not clear how long such stockpiles could last, especially as consumers increase iPhone purchases in anticipation of higher prices, he added.
According to Omdia, Apple’s medium-term strategy has been to reduce exposure to geopolitical and tariff-related risks, and it has appeared to focus on increasing iPhone production and exports from India.
Trump’s temporary halt will likely push tariffs on India to a baseline of 10% — at least for now — giving it a more favorable entry into the U.S.
However, the build-up of iPhone manufacturing in India has been a yearslong process. Indian iPhone manufacturers only began producing Apple’s top-of-the-line Pro and Pro Max iPhone models for the first time last year.
According to Chiew, ramping up enough production in India to satisfy demand could take at least one or two years and is not without its own tariff risks.
Exemptions?
In face of the tariffs, experts said the company’s best option is likely to appeal to the Trump administration for a tariff exemption for imports from China as it continues to ramp up its diversification efforts.
This is something the company had received — to an extent — during the first Trump administration, with some analysts believing it could happen again this time around.
“I still see some potential relief that can come in the form of concessions for Apple based upon its $500 billion U.S. commitment,” said Daniel Newman, CEO of The Futurum Group. “This hasn’t been discussed much — but I’m optimistic that companies that commit to U.S. expansion may see some form of relief as negotiations progress.”
Apple said in February that it would invest $500 billion in the U.S., creating 20,000 jobs.
Still, Trump has been clear that he believes Apple can make iPhones in the U.S.— though analysts have doubts about the plan. Wedbush analyst Ives has predicted that an iPhone would cost $3,500 if produced in the U.S. instead of the more typical $1,000.
Meanwhile, other analysts say that even a trade deal or tariff exemption may not be enough for Apple to avoid adverse business effects.
“Let’s assume that there is at least some thaw coming, either in a moderation of reciprocal tariffs targeting China or in a special exemption for Apple,” said Craig Moffett, co-founder and senior analyst at equity research publisher MoffettNathanson.
“That still wouldn’t solve the problem. Even a 10% baseline tariff poses an enormous challenge for Apple.”
Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla Inc., during a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s president, not pictured, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, May 21, 2025.
Jim Lo Scalzo | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Tesla shares have dropped 7% from Friday’s closing price of $323.63 to the $300.71 close on Tuesday ahead of the company’s second-quarter deliveries report.
Wall Street analysts are expecting Tesla to report deliveries of around 387,000 — a 13% decline compared to deliveries of nearly 444,000 a year ago, according to a consensus compiled by FactSet. Prediction market Kalshi told CNBC on Tuesday that its traders forecast deliveries of around 364,000.
Shares in the electric vehicle maker had been rising after Tesla started a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in late June and CEO Elon Musk boasted of its first “driverless delivery” of a car to a customer there.
The stock price took a turn after Musk on Saturday reignited a feud with President Donald Trump over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the massive spending bill that the commander-in-chief endorsed. The bill is now heading for a final vote in the House.
That legislation would benefit higher-income households in the U.S. while slashing spending on programs such as Medicaid and food assistance.
Musk did not object to cuts to those specific programs. However, Musk on X said the bill would worsen the U.S. deficit and raise the debt ceiling. The bill includes tax cuts that would add around $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.
The Tesla CEO has also criticized aspects of the bill that would cut hundreds of billions of dollars in support for renewable energy development in the U.S. and phase out tax credits for electric vehicles.
Such changes could hurt Tesla as they are expected to lower EV sales by roughly 100,000 vehicles per year by 2035, according to think tank Energy Innovation.
The bill is also expected to reduce renewable energy development by more than 350 cumulative gigawatts in that same time period, according to Energy Innovation. That could pressure Tesla’s Energy division, which sells solar and battery energy storage systems to utilities and other clean energy project developers.
Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that Musk was, “upset that he’s losing his EV mandate,” but that the tech CEO could “lose a lot more than that.” Trump was alluding to the subsidies, incentives and contracts that Musk’s many businesses have relied on.
SpaceX has received over $22 billion from work with the federal government since 2008, according to FedScout, which does federal spending and government contract research. That includes contracts from NASA, the U.S. Air Force and Space Force, among others.
Tesla has reported $11.8 billion in sales of “automotive regulatory credits,” or environmental credits, since 2015, according to an evaluation of the EV maker’s financial filings by Geoff Orazem, CEO of FedScout.
These incentives are largely derived from federal and state regulations in the U.S. that require automakers to sell some number of low-emission vehicles or buy credits from companies like Tesla, which often have an excess.
Regulatory credit sales go straight to Tesla’s bottom line. Credit revenue amounted to approximately 60% of Tesla’s net income in the second quarter of 2024.
WATCH: Threats to SpaceX & Tesla as Musk, Trump feud heats up
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos leaves Aman Venice hotel, on the second day of the wedding festivities of Bezos and journalist Lauren Sanchez, in Venice, Italy, June 27, 2025.
Yara Nardi | Reuters
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos unloaded more than 3.3 million shares of his company in a sale valued at roughly $736.7 million, according to a financial filing on Tuesday.
The stock sale is part of a previously arranged trading plan adopted by Bezos in March. Under that arrangement, Bezos plans to sell up to 25 million shares of Amazon over a period ending May 29, 2026.
Bezos, who stepped down as Amazon’s CEO in 2021 but remains chairman, has been selling stock in the company at a regular clip in recent years, though he’s still the largest individual shareholder. He adopted a similar trading plan in February 2024 to sell up to 50 million shares of Amazon stock through late January of this year.
Bezos previously said he’d sell about $1 billion in Amazon stock each year to fund his space exploration company, Blue Origin. He’s also donated shares to Day 1 Academies, his nonprofit that’s building a chain of Montessori-inspired preschools across several states.
The most recent stock sale comes after Bezos and Lauren Sanchez tied the knot last week in a lavish wedding in Venice. The star-studded celebration, which took place over three days and sparked protests from some local residents, was estimated to cost around $50 million.
Bezos is ranked third in Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index with a net worth of about $240 billion. He’s behind Tesla CEO Elon Musk at $363 billion and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg at $260 billion.
WATCH: Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ wedding sparks Venice protests
Google CEO Sundar Pichai addresses the crowd during Google’s annual I/O developers conference in Mountain View, California on May 20, 2025.
Camille Cohen | AFP | Getty Images
The Google Doodle is Alphabet’s most valuable piece of real estate, and on Tuesday, the company used that space to promote “AI Mode,” its latest AI search product.
Google’s Chrome browser landing pages and Google’s home page featured an animated image that, when clicked, leads users to AI Mode, the company’s latest search product. The doodle image also includes a share button.
The promotion of AI Mode on the Google Doodle comes as the tech company makes efforts to expose more users to its latest AI features amid pressure from artificial intelligence startups. That includes OpenAI which makes ChatGPT, Anthropic which makes Claude and Perplexity AI, which bills itself as an “AI-powered answer engine.”
Google’s “Doodle” Tuesday directed users to its search chatbot-like experience “AI Mode”
AI Mode is Google’s chatbot-like experience for complex user questions. The company began displaying AI Mode alongside its search results page in March.
“Search whatever’s on your mind and get AI-powered responses,” the product description reads when clicked from the home page.
AI Mode is powered by Google’s flagship AI model Gemini, and the tool has rolled out to more U.S. users since its launch. Users can ask AI Mode questions using text, voice or images. Google says AI Mode makes it easier to find answers to complex questions that might have previously required multiple searches.
In May, Google tested the AI Mode feature directly beneath the Google search bar, replacing the “I’m Feeling Lucky” widget — a place where Google rarely makes changes.
WATCH: Google buyouts highlight tech’s cost-cutting amid AI CapEx boom
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