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Apple is once again in the crosshairs of a global trade war. This time, the stakes may be even higher.

On April 2, President Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of imported goods, including those from China, India, Vietnam and other countries critical to Apple’s supply chain. That move sent shockwaves through global markets, wiping out over $640 billion in Apple’s market value in just five days.

“It’s the most head-scratching, absurd policy move we’ve seen in years,” said Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush Securities. “Apple is in the eye of the storm.”

CNBC technology reporter Kif Leswing calls it a “massive moment for Apple.”

“Even with all their efforts to diversify production, the company still depends on China, and now they’re facing tariffs from nearly every country they manufacture in,” Leswing said.

While the stock rebounded on Wednesday after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for select nations, the broader uncertainty around Apple’s global manufacturing model hasn’t gone away. China tariffs remain at a staggering 145%.

“No company is more impacted by this tariff Armageddon than Apple,” Ives said.

Apple still assembles 90% of its iPhones in China, largely through its partnership with Foxconn. China also handles 80% of iPads and over half of Mac computers, according to Evercore ISI.

“Apple’s been trying to get ahead of this,” Leswing said. “They’ve been making iPhones in India, assembling Macs in Malaysia, sourcing from Vietnam, but those countries are now seeing tariffs too. That puts Apple in a really tough spot.”

India, Vietnam and Thailand were all key parts of Apple’s post-COVID diversification strategy. Under Trump’s new plan, imports from many of those countries face tariffs as high as 26% to 46%, although the president reduced most tariffs to 10% on Wednesday.

Still, the message from the White House is clear: Apple needs to make products in the U.S.

In theory, tariffs are meant to bring jobs and production back to the U.S. In practice, moving high-tech manufacturing out of China is neither fast nor cheap.

“If you want an iPhone made in the U.S. and you want it for $3,500, we should make it here,” said Ives. “If you want it for $1,000, you keep it in China.”

The iPhone 16 Pro Max currently starts at $1,199, but one UBS estimate shows that new tariffs could raise the price by $350. Erik Woodring of Morgan Stanley estimates Apple may need to increase prices across the board by 17% to 18% to cover the added cost.

Apple has started building some iPhones in India and iPads in Vietnam, but the company remains heavily reliant on China’s infrastructure, skilled labor force, and dense manufacturing network.

“It would take decades just to move 10% of Apple’s supply chain to the U.S.,” Ives said. “The global supply chain is built in Asia.”

As panic rippled through the markets, Apple kept quiet. The company has declined to comment publicly on the tariffs and has offered no updated guidance to suppliers or shareholders.

That stands in contrast to 2019, when CEO Tim Cook personally lobbied the first Trump administration to exempt iPhones from a previous round of tariffs, and succeeded. This time, no carve-outs have been announced.

“It’s kind of a cipher right now, what Tim Cook is cooking up in Cupertino,” said Leswing. “They’ve said very little.”

According to reporting from 9To5Mac, Apple has started modeling out different tariff scenarios and even chartered at least five planes in late March to stockpile products before tariffs took effect.

Analysts say Apple’s options are limited in the short term. The company is expected to delay price hikes until its next product cycle, likely with the iPhone 17, but that could impact demand in a cooling smartphone market.

Apple already faces pressure over its slow rollout of artificial intelligence features and stagnating hardware innovation. If the tariffs remain in place, or escalate further, the ripple effects could be massive.

“This could throw the U.S. into a self-inflicted recession,” Ives said.

So far, investors are watching closely for signs of a shift in strategy or a more forceful response from Apple leadership.

“Apple is the poster child for the trade war,” said Leswing. “And right now, they’re not saying much at all.”

Watch the video to understand how tariffs are shaking Apple’s supply chain and what it could mean for your next iPhone.

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Meta’s big antitrust win, Salesforce’s deal closure, and iPhone’s popularity in China

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Meta's big antitrust win, Salesforce's deal closure, and iPhone's popularity in China

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Meta wins FTC antitrust trial that focused on WhatsApp, Instagram

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Meta wins FTC antitrust trial that focused on WhatsApp, Instagram

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg appears at the Meta Connect event in Menlo Park, California, on Sept. 25, 2024.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Meta won its high-profile antitrust case against the Federal Trade Commission, which had accused the company of holding a monopoly in social networking.

In a memorandum opinion released Tuesday, Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., said the FTC failed to prove its argument. The case, initially filed by the FTC five years ago, centered on Meta’s acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.

“Whether or not Meta enjoyed monopoly power in the past, though, the agency must show that it continues to hold such power now,” Boasberg said in the filing. “The Court’s verdict today determines that the FTC has not done so. A judgment so stating shall issue this day.”

Boasberg dismissed the case in 2021, saying the agency didn’t have enough evidence to prove “Facebook holds market power.” In August of that year, the FTC filed an amended complaint with more details about the company’s user numbers and metrics relative to competitors like Snapchat, the now-defunct Google+ social network and Myspace.

After reviewing the amendments, Boasberg in 2022 ruled that the case could proceed, saying the FTC had presented more details than before.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, former operating chief Sheryl Sandberg, Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom and other current and former Meta executives all testified in the trial, which began in April.

Meta shares were little changed on Tuesday. The stock is up about 2% for the year, badly underperforming broader indexes and most of its megacap tech peers.

“The Court’s decision today recognizes that Meta faces fierce competition,” the company said in a statement. “Our products are beneficial for people and businesses and exemplify American innovation and economic growth. We look forward to continuing to partner with the Administration and to invest in America.” 

The FTC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.  

The ruling comes a little over two months after Google avoided the harshest possible penalty from an antitrust case it lost last year. While Google was found to hold an illegal monopoly in its core market of internet search, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta decided the company would not be forced to sell its Chrome browser, bucking the Department of Justice’s request. Google was, however, ordered to loosen its hold on search data.

Former FTC Chair Lina Khan on Meta antitrust trial regarding Instagram, WhatsApp ownership

In the Meta case, the FTC claimed the company shouldn’t have been allowed to buy Instagram for $1 billion in 2012 and WhatsApp for $19 billion in 2014, and the agency called for those units to be divested. The commission also alleged that there were no major alternatives for apps like Facebook and Instagram that people use to communicate with friends and family in a online, social space.

However, a major challenge for the FTC, according to the judge, was in proving that Meta is breaking antitrust law today, not years ago when the primary use of social networks was very different and based on sharing other kinds of content.

“To win the permanent injunction that it seeks here, the FTC must prove a current or imminent legal violation,” he wrote.

Boasberg ultimately sided with Meta’s argument that the technology industry has evolved since the early days of Facebook, and the company now faces a wide variety of competitors like TikTok.

“While each of Meta’s empirical showings can be quibbled with, they all tell a consistent story: people treat TikTok and YouTube as substitutes for Facebook and Instagram, and the amount of competitive overlap is economically important,” Boasberg wrote. “Against that unmistakable pattern, the FTC offers no empirical evidence of substitution whatsoever.”

Big changes in social

Much of Judge Boasberg’s conclusion was built on the transformation that’s taken place in the social media market in recent years and Meta’s changing position within it. User trends have moved heavily in the direction of video, where TikTok and YouTube have massive user bases and huge network effects.

“The most-used part of Meta’s apps is thus indistinguishable from the offerings on TikTok and YouTube,” Boasberg wrote.

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Waymo says it will launch in more Texas and Florida cities in 2026

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Waymo says it will launch in more Texas and Florida cities in 2026

A Waymo autonomous self-driving Jaguar taxi drives along a street on March 14, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.

Mario Tama | Getty Images

Waymo on Tuesday said it will bring its robotaxi service to new cities in Texas and Florida in 2026.

The Alphabet-owned company said it plans to start operating its vehicles with no human driver assistants in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Miami and Orlando in the coming weeks before opening service in those markets to the public next year, the company said in a blog.

“Waymo has entered a new phase of commercial scale, doubling the number of cities we operate without a human specialist in the car,” Waymo Chief Product Officer Saswat Panigrahi said in an emailed statement Tuesday.

Waymo had previously announced plans to launch its robotaxi service in Dallas and Miami in 2026, but Tuesday was the first time the company said it planned to launch service next year in the other cities. Waymo will first offer fully autonomous trips to its employees in those markets, a spokesperson said.

The company has been gearing up to expand its paid robotaxis service in 2026. The company previously announced plans to expand to Detroit, Las Vegas, Nashville, San Diego, Washington, D.C., and London in 2026.

Waymo has also begun testing vehicles in New York City and Tokyo.

Last week, Waymo began offering freeway routes in the San Francisco, Phoenix and Los Angeles markets. The Google sister company will gradually extend freeway trips to more riders and locations over time.

Already, Waymo operates its paid robotaxi service in Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix, Atlanta and Los Angeles. The company has provided more than 10 million paid rides since first launching in 2020, the company said in May.

Waymo’s Florida and Texas expansion announcement comes the same day that Amazon-owned Zoox began allowing select San Francisco users to hail its driverless vehicles. San Francisco is the second market where Zoox now offers a free service, after its launch in Las Vegas in September. Zoox has deployed a fleet of 50 robotaxis between San Francisco and Las Vegas, the company told CNBC in September.

WATCH: Waymo launches paid robotaxi rides on freeways

Watch: Waymo launches paid robotaxi rides on freeways

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