Speculation is DeFi’s double-edged sword
Opinion by: Billy Campana, contract developer, Api3
Speculation is a cornerstone of price discovery for traditional finance institutions like hedge funds and major banks and plays an essential role in their day-to-day operations. It is the mechanism by which they can establish reliable valuations for everything, ranging from simple stocks and bonds to complex derivatives and structured products.
While decentralized finance (DeFi) is often criticized for its speculative “casino” nature, this is, in reality, one of its strengths: making practices like arbitrage more accessible to everyone and empowering individuals to participate in opportunities once out of reach
DeFi’s volatility
Critics have highlighted DeFi’s extreme volatility, a concern exemplified by Ether’s (ETH) recent 15% price drop that triggered over $100 million in long position liquidations. These dramatic market movements continually test market resilience and investor confidence in the ecosystem.
The accusations that DeFi platforms function essentially as gambling venues persist throughout the industry. Such criticisms have gained further traction following several high-profile memecoin crashes that collectively erased over $46 billion in market value, revealing the systemic vulnerabilities that speculative activities can introduce to the broader ecosystem.
Additionally, the recent Bybit hack spotlighted the major security concerns, exposing critical vulnerabilities within DeFi infrastructure and triggering intense scrutiny of the sector’s security protocols. These systemic risks have only escalated institutional skepticism, resulting in increasingly vocal calls for greater transparency and comprehensive regulatory oversight.
Simultaneously, the media narrative surrounding DeFi remains overwhelmingly focused on its spectacular failures, growing institutional skepticism and persistent market instability. This one-sided portrayal continues challenging DeFi’s credibility as a serious financial ecosystem capable of responsible innovation.
Evening the playing field
Critics consistently miss that DeFi democratizes the same speculative mechanisms that traditional finance has always employed for price discovery. The fundamental difference is that Wall Street gatekeepers no longer control who benefits from these opportunities.
While traditional finance has historically restricted arbitrage opportunities to institutional players with privileged access, DeFi effectively removes these gatekeepers, allowing anyone with an internet connection to participate in the price discovery process that hedge funds and banks have monopolized for decades.
Smart contracts have revolutionized financial operations that once required privileged access and teams of highly paid professionals. Smart contracts effectively break down the artificial barriers that have systematically kept ordinary people out of sophisticated markets.
Recent: Bitwise makes first institutional DeFi allocation
Leading financial institutions increasingly recognize this paradigm shift, with established businesses progressively adopting DeFi mechanisms to automate transactions and enhance operational efficiency. Institutional adoption validates speculation as a legitimate financial practice rather than dismissing it as mere gambling.
An arbitrage utopia
This unprecedented democratization manifests concretely in decentralized lending platforms that enable automated market makers (AMMs), enabling anyone to provide liquidity and earn fees previously reserved exclusively for institutional market makers with significant capital reserves.
With unprecedented data transparency across blockchain networks, even uncollateralized crypto loans can enable capital-efficient arbitrage opportunities spanning multiple blockchain ecosystems without requiring the millions in upfront collateral that traditional finance demands from participants.
As institutional involvement continues to grow and regulatory frameworks gradually mature, these speculative mechanisms steadily evolve toward the same legitimacy traditional finance instruments enjoy. This evolution reveals that speculation itself was never the problem — the exclusionary access to its benefits was.
The practical execution of this democratized speculation includes cross-exchange arbitrage through DeFi aggregators, crosschain bridges that naturally equalize asset prices across different blockchains and automated liquidation mechanisms that maintain system solvency.
All these components serve the same fundamental purpose as traditional financial instruments but with radically expanded access for participants worldwide.
As institutional investors and traditional financial markets return their gaze to the industry, with increased involvement from regulatory bodies and political figures in the US, DeFi must remember its core value proposition.
The actual value of DeFi is not in recreating the current structures that allow the powerful to benefit from methods that regular people don’t have access to but in making these opaque systems transparent and open to everyone.
Rather than apologizing for speculation, the industry should embrace and refine it as its revolutionary tool — one that brings financial opportunities to billions systematically excluded from traditional markets.
Innovation in DeFi isn’t just technological; it is also social, creating a financial system where opportunity isn’t determined by privilege but by insight, creativity and willingness to participate. The future belongs not to those who can eliminate speculation but to those who can make it fair, transparent and accessible to all.
Opinion by: Billy Campana, contract developer, Api3
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Senator Tim Scott, the chairman of the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, recently said that he expects a crypto market bill to be passed into law by August 2025.
The chairman also noted the Senate Banking Committee’s advancement of the GENIUS Act, a comprehensive stablecoin regulatory bill, in March 2025, as evidence that the committee prioritizes crypto policy. In a statement to Fox News, Scott said:
“We must innovate before we regulate — allowing innovation in the digital asset space to happen here at home is critical to American economic dominance across the globe.”
Scott’s timeline for a crypto market structure bill lines up with expectations from Kristin Smith, CEO of the crypto industry advocacy group Blockchain Association, of market structure and stablecoin legislation being passed into law by August.
The Trump administration has emphasized that comprehensive crypto regulations are central to its plans for protecting the value of the US dollar and establishing the country as a global leader in digital assets by attracting investment into US-based crypto firms.
Senator Tim Scott highlights the Senate Banking Committee’s goals and accomplishments in 2025. Source: Fox News
Related: Atkins becomes next SEC chair: What’s next for the crypto industry
Support for comprehensive crypto regulations is bipartisan
US lawmakers and officials expect clear crypto policies to be established and signed into law sometime in 2025 with bipartisan support from Congress.
Speaking at the Digital Assets Summit in New York City, on March 18, Democrat Representative Ro Khanna said he expects both the market structure and stablecoin bills to pass this year.
The Democrat lawmaker added that there are about 70-80 other representatives in the party who understand the importance of passing clear digital asset regulations in the United States.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, pictured left, President Donald Trump in the center, and crypto czar David Sacks, pictured right, at the White House Crypto Summit. Source: The White House
Khanna emphasized that fellow Democrats support dollar-pegged stablecoins due to the role of dollar tokens in expanding demand for the US dollar worldwide through the internet.
Bo Hines, the executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, also spoke at the conference and predicted that stablecoin legislation would be passed into law within 60 days.
Hines highlighted that establishing US dominance in the digital asset space is a goal with widespread bipartisan support in Washington DC.
Magazine: How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025
The US Social Security Administration (SSA) will move all public communications to the X social media platform amid sweeping workforce cuts recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by X owner Elon Musk.
According to anonymous sources who spoke with WIRED, the government agency will no longer issue its customary letters and press releases to communicate changes to the public, instead relying on X as its primary form of public-facing communication.
The shift comes as the SSA downsizes its workforce from 57,000 employees to roughly 50,000 to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency. The agency issued this statement in February 2025:
“SSA has operated with a regional structure consisting of 10 offices, which is no longer sustainable. The agency will reduce the regional structure in all agency components down to four regions. The organizational structure at Headquarters also is outdated and inefficient.”
Elon Musk, the head of DOGE, has accused the Social Security system of distributing billions of dollars in wrongful payments, a claim echoed by the White House. Musk’s comments sparked intense debate about the future of the retirement program and sustainable government spending.
Source: Elon Musk
Related: Musk says he found ‘magic money computers’ printing money ‘out of thin air’
DOGE targets US government agencies in efficiency push
The Department of Government Efficiency is an unofficial government agency tasked with identifying and curbing allegedly wasteful public spending through budget and personnel cuts.
In March, DOGE began probing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and gained access to its internal systems, including data repositories.
SEC officials signaled their cooperation with DOGE and said the regulatory agency would work closely with it to provide any relevant information requested.
Musk and Trump discuss curbing public spending and eliminating government waste. Source: The White house
DOGE also proposed slashing the Internal Revenue Service’s (IRS) workforce by 20%. The workforce reduction could impact up to 6,800 IRS employees and be implemented by May 15 — exactly one month after 2024 federal taxes are due.
Musk’s and the DOGE’s proposals for sweeping spending cuts are not limited to slashing budgets and reducing the size of the federal workforce.
DOGE is reportedly exploring blockchain to curb public spending by placing the entire government budget onchain to promote accountability and transparency.
Magazine: Elon Musk’s plan to run government on blockchain faces uphill battle
United States President Donald Trump has exempted an array of tech products including, smartphones, chips, computers, and select electronics from tariffs, giving the tech industry a much-needed respite from trade pressures.
According to the US Customs and Border Protection, storage cards, modems, diodes, semiconductors, and other electronics were also excluded from the ongoing trade tariffs.
“Large-cap technology companies will ultimately come out ahead when this is all said and done,” The Kobeissi letter wrote in an April 12 X post.
US Customs and Border Protection announces tariff exemptions on select tech products. Source: US Customs and Border Protection
The tariff relief will take the pressure off of tech stocks, which were one of the biggest casualties of the trade war. Crypto markets are correlated with tech stocks and could also rally as risk appetite increases on positive trade war headlines.
Following news of the tariff exemptions, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) broke past $85,000 on April 12, a signal that crypto markets are already responding to the latest macroeconomic development.
Related: Billionaire investor would ‘not be surprised’ if Trump postpones tariffs
Markets hinge on Trump’s every word during macroeconomic uncertainty
President Trump walked back the sweeping tariff policies on April 9 by initiating a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs and lowering tariff rates to 10% for countries that did not respond with counter-tariffs on US goods.
Bitcoin surged by 9% and the S&P 500 surged by over 10% on the same day that Trump issued the tariff pause.
Macroeconomic trader Raoul Pal said the tariff policies were a negotiation tool to establish a US-China trade deal and characterized the US administration’s trade rhetoric as “posturing.”
Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser argued that exempting select tech products from import tariffs would not reduce bond yields or further the Trump administration’s goal of lowering interest rates.
Yield on the 10-year US government bond spikes following sweeping trade policies from the Trump administration. Source: TradingView
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Bond shot up to a local high of approximately 4.5% on April 11 as bond investors reacted to the macroeconomic uncertainty of a protracted trade war.
“The concession just given to China for tech exports won’t reverse the trend of rates going higher. Confidence in US bonds and the US Dollar has been eroding for years and won’t stop now,” Keiser wrote on April 12.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions
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