The numbers behind Lane Hutson’s breakout rookie campaign
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Rachel Doerrie
Every year at the NHL draft, we hear the same trope about players who are under six feet tall:
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Will their game translate to the NHL level?
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Will they be too small to play against big forecheckers and win net-front battles?
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Are they special enough to make their size moot?
We heard those refrains about Alex DeBrincat, Cole Caufield, Brad Marchand, Brayden Point, Jared Spurgeon, Adam Fox, Torey Krug, and the late Johnny Gaudreau. Each of those players went on to be impactful NHL players because their skill outshone their size.
In 2022, we heard similar things about Lane Hutson. After sitting in NHL scouting meetings during the 2021-2022 season, I can tell you that Hutson was the subject of much debate. He was far and away the most skilled defenseman in the draft, but many scouts questioned whether he would be able to accomplish his feats at the NHL level, with a few scouts placing bets against him. One scout said, “if he was 6-2, he’d be a top-5 pick.”
That scout will remain unnamed, but suffice to say, Hutson would be a top-5 pick, without question, if there was a redraft three years later.
Here’s how the Canadiens rookie sensation proved all the doubters wrong, and what Montreal has in him for the future.
JUST HOW SKILLED is Lane Hutson? He leads all rookies in scoring, and his 58 assists are the most for any rookie since Mathew Barzal, a forward, recorded 63 in 2017-2018. Hutson is the offensive catalyst for Montreal, ranking third among NHL defensemen with 5.45 shot assists per game.
This should not be a total shock. In the season prior to being drafted, playing for the U.S. National Team Development Program, he led draft prospects in many offensive categories tracked by Stathletes, including many transition categories.
Flash forward to 2024-25, and Hutson ranks second in the NHL for end-to-end rushes by a defenseman, behind past Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes and ahead of current favorite Cale Makar. He sparks Montreal’s transition offense with his ability to transport the puck, ranking in the top 10 in the NHL in carried zone exits and zone entries — a direct translation from his tracked statistics throughout his draft year.
It is reasonable to assert that if a defenseman’s skating ability is as special as Hutson’s, and his transition numbers are elite in his draft year, it will translate to the NHL level. His skating is nothing short of extraordinary, and puts him in the same category as Hughes and Makar, by far the best skating defensemen in the sport.
According to Stathletes, based on passing alone, Hutson ranks third in expected goals created among defensemen, with 17.29 this season. He is ranked fourth in passes completed to the slot, the most dangerous area of the ice, and eighth in cross-ice passes completed. It is likely that Hutson would rank even higher had Montreal’s coaching staff given him the reins to the top power-play unit earlier in the season.
Not only is Hutson a tremendous facilitator of the puck — and will be one of the best offensive catalysts from the blue line for years to come — but he also creates for himself. Hutson ranks third among all defensemen in scoring chances per game with 1.24, per Stathletes. He’s able to create chances with excellent edgework and patience. He is fourth among blueliners in offensive zone possession time per game, and third in possession time per game. The others in the top 5 are Hughes, Makar, Zach Werenski and Rasmus Dahlin, which is elite company.
Montreal’s rise in the standings to a playoff position is directly linked to Hutson’s improved defensive play. Prior to the 4 Nations Face-Off, Hutson was minus-15. He is plus-14 since, and it is no coincidence that his improved defensive impact has coincided with the Canadiens’ rise in the standings. While plus-minus is most definitely not the be-all, end-all analysis of a player’s defensive value, it is one indicator.
There were numerous situations in the first half of his rookie season where defensive lapses were costly, and there are legitimate concerns about Hutson’s ability to defend at the NHL level. To combat this, Hutson has leveraged his skating ability in defensive transition, which has led to less time spent in the defensive zone and fewer scoring chances given up.
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Lane Hutson scores on the power play for Montreal Canadiens
Lane Hutson scores on the power play for Montreal Canadiens
DEFENSEMEN HAVE A longer, more arduous development path, and are more prone to costly errors as they adjust to the NHL level. This is especially true for players that play significant roles — Hutson is averaging nearly 23 minutes per game — and possess the puck as frequently as Hutson does. Players who have the puck more will make more mistakes.
Defensemen with the most turnovers in the NHL include the likes of Erik Karlsson, Evan Bouchard, Zach Werenski and Thomas Harley. It’s not because they are irresponsible with the puck, but because they have the puck more often, which increases the opportunity for turnovers. Turnovers per puck possession time or some function of that would be a better evaluator of how responsible a player is with the puck than just the total.
Hutson has turned the puck over his fair share of times, but his offensive prowess and ability to create scoring chances heavily outweigh the turnovers. Outside of his improved transition defense, Hutson has improved in the defensive zone. He takes more efficient paths allowing him to contain bigger offensive players, uses his outstanding edgework to keep players in outside positions. He has also simplified his puck play to reduce turnovers on breakouts.
The combination of those improvements has led to decreased defensive zone time and scoring chances against. Hutson has been winning the scoring chance battle since February, and as he continues to develop, that will be a key statistic to monitor. While Hutson is one of the NHL’s best defensemen at scoring-chance creation and offensive play, the real development will come if he consistently tilts the ice in Montreal’s favor over the balance of all scoring chances that occur while he’s on the ice.
The season Hutson is having is nothing short of remarkable, and is historic. He ranks second in assists by all NHL defensemen, and is fourth in points. Hutson has been involved in 27% of Montreal’s goals this season, a number that would be excellent for any defenseman, let alone a rookie. Dustin Wolf and Macklin Celebrini had high-quality rookie campaigns, but Hutson has separated himself as the league’s best first-year player.
Sophomore slumps are expected, particularly for defencemen, but Hutson was an exception to the “size” rule, and it should not surprise anyone if he is an exception to the “sophomore slump” rule, either.
Hutson is a top offensive defenseman in the NHL, and teams will start to scheme against him, as they do Makar, Hughes and Fox. If Hutson can continue to win the scoring-chance battle despite that, there is a real chance Montreal has one of NHL’s top-5 defensemen for years to come.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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