With IPOs on hold even longer, tariffs spell trouble for private tech investors
A VIX volatility index chart on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. Federal Reserve officials held their benchmark interest rate steady for a second straight meeting, though they telegraphed expectations for slower economic growth and higher inflation.
Photographer: Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Already under pressure amid last week’s multitrillion-dollar stock market rout, the venture capital industry now faces an even tougher outlook amid ongoing uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs.
A dearth of initial public offerings or mergers and acquisitions — coupled with the trend that startups are now staying private for longer — has put immense strain on VC funds. Venture capitalists can typically only realize gains on their investments when a company goes public or is sold, allowing them to cash out.
Mere days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs on a swathe of countries, it emerged that two major tech unicorns — fintech firm Klarna and ticketing platform StubHub — were delaying plans to go public due to a sharp plunge in global equity markets. Notably, both companies had filed initial public offering prospectuses in recent weeks.
“No one can go out with this turbulence,” Tobias Bengtsdahl, a partner at VC firm Antler’s Nordics fund, told CNBC on a call last week. “When the market plunges like it has now … you have to do the same prediction on the private markets.”
Tough outlook for VC
As private markets don’t move in the same way public markets do, it becomes more difficult for tech startups to go out and raise capital — whether from the stock market or venture capital — as they could end up seeing their valuations go down.
“We don’t change the valuations of our startups just because the stock market goes down,” Antler’s Bengtsdahl said. Venture-backed startups’ valuations only tend to change when they’re raising a new equity round.
“That has a huge impact on funds raising right now and startups raising from multi-stage investors,” he added.
That could soon make it more difficult for startups — and especially growth-stage firms — to raise venture capital. Later-stage firms tend to be more exposed to swings in public markets than early-stage startups, given they’re closer than most to reaching the IPO milestone.
Private markets are less liquid than public markets, meaning investors can’t sell shares easily. The main way private equity owners sell part or all of their stake in a company is via an IPO or M&A — also known as an “exit.” The other alternative is to sell shares to another investor on the secondary market.
“[General partners] will be under pressure from [limited partners] to make sure these exits happen,” Alex Barr, partner and head of private market fund management firm Sarasin Bread Street, told CNBC last week, adding that IPOs remain a “very fickle beast to manage.”
General partners are investors who manage a venture fund, whereas limited partners are institutional investors — like pension funds and hedge funds — or high-net-worth individuals who pour money into funds.
Limited partners invest in a venture fund in the hope that they’ll generate sizable returns over its lifetime, which can span as long as 10 years. Early-stage funds invest in the hope that a few startups in their portfolio will generate the kind of returns outcomes like Uber and Spotify reaped for their private backers.
Hope for Europe tech?
On the bright side, the uncertainty could be a chance for Europe’s private tech startups to shine, according to Sanjot Malhi, a partner at London-based venture capital firm Northzone.
“The short-term pause in IPO activity is a natural response to recent market turbulence, and we can expect to have more clarity on company positions once some sense of stability is restored,” Malhi told CNBC.
He nevertheless added that, “if talent and liquidity find the U.S. environment less hospitable, that flow has to go somewhere, and Europe has a chance to benefit.”
Christel Piron, CEO of startup investor PSV Foundry, told CNBC that the “silver lining” from uncertainty created by tariffs is how “Europe is moving closer together amid the turbulence.”
“We’re seeing more founders choosing to stay and scale here, driven by a growing sense of responsibility to help build a resilient European tech nation,” Piron said.
There could also be other routes to exit for venture capital funds, according to Northzone’s Malhi — including acquisitions or even so-called “down rounds” where startups raise funds at reduced valuations.
“If the global IPO window does narrow in the longer term, then we would still expect a strong M&A landscape, as stakeholders seek ‘problem-solving’ exits,” he told CNBC.
“If that is the case, we may also see an increase in later-stage fundraises, as companies look to bridge the capital gap until they can find such opportunities, albeit at potentially lower valuations.”
Further down the line, investors are holding out hope for big tech IPOs to return later into Trump’s presidency. VCs had counted on the Trump administration resulting in a reinvigorated IPO market.
“A lot of people feel Trump has promised them open up the IPO market and open up the M&A market,” Antler’s Bengtsdahl said.
“It’s now 6 months into his term,” he added, noting the market can tolerate the new administration’s failure to meet this pledge in its early days. “But people are demanding that it happens within his term.”
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg appears at the Meta Connect event in Menlo Park, California, on Sept. 25, 2024.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Meta won its high-profile antitrust case against the Federal Trade Commission, which had accused the company of holding a monopoly in social networking.
In a memorandum opinion released Tuesday, Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., said the FTC failed to prove its argument. The case, initially filed by the FTC five years ago, centered on Meta’s acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.
“Whether or not Meta enjoyed monopoly power in the past, though, the agency must show that it continues to hold such power now,” Boasberg said in the filing. “The Court’s verdict today determines that the FTC has not done so. A judgment so stating shall issue this day.”
Boasberg dismissed the case in 2021, saying the agency didn’t have enough evidence to prove “Facebook holds market power.” In August of that year, the FTC filed an amended complaint with more details about the company’s user numbers and metrics relative to competitors like Snapchat, the now-defunct Google+ social network and Myspace.
After reviewing the amendments, Boasberg in 2022 ruled that the case could proceed, saying the FTC had presented more details than before.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, former operating chief Sheryl Sandberg, Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom and other current and former Meta executives all testified in the trial, which began in April.
Meta shares were little changed on Tuesday. The stock is up about 2% for the year, badly underperforming broader indexes and most of its megacap tech peers.
“The Court’s decision today recognizes that Meta faces fierce competition,” the company said in a statement. “Our products are beneficial for people and businesses and exemplify American innovation and economic growth. We look forward to continuing to partner with the Administration and to invest in America.”
The FTC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The ruling comes a little over two months after Google avoided the harshest possible penalty from an antitrust case it lost last year. While Google was found to hold an illegal monopoly in its core market of internet search, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta decided the company would not be forced to sell its Chrome browser, bucking the Department of Justice’s request. Google was, however, ordered to loosen its hold on search data.
In the Meta case, the FTC claimed the company shouldn’t have been allowed to buy Instagram for $1 billion in 2012 and WhatsApp for $19 billion in 2014, and the agency called for those units to be divested. The commission also alleged that there were no major alternatives for apps like Facebook and Instagram that people use to communicate with friends and family in a online, social space.
However, a major challenge for the FTC, according to the judge, was in proving that Meta is breaking antitrust law today, not years ago when the primary use of social networks was very different and based on sharing other kinds of content.
“To win the permanent injunction that it seeks here, the FTC must prove a current or imminent legal violation,” he wrote.
Boasberg ultimately sided with Meta’s argument that the technology industry has evolved since the early days of Facebook, and the company now faces a wide variety of competitors like TikTok.
“While each of Meta’s empirical showings can be quibbled with, they all tell a consistent story: people treat TikTok and YouTube as substitutes for Facebook and Instagram, and the amount of competitive overlap is economically important,” Boasberg wrote. “Against that unmistakable pattern, the FTC offers no empirical evidence of substitution whatsoever.”
Big changes in social
Much of Judge Boasberg’s conclusion was built on the transformation that’s taken place in the social media market in recent years and Meta’s changing position within it. User trends have moved heavily in the direction of video, where TikTok and YouTube have massive user bases and huge network effects.
“The most-used part of Meta’s apps is thus indistinguishable from the offerings on TikTok and YouTube,” Boasberg wrote.
Boasberg explained that there was enough evidence to show “that consumers are reallocating massive amounts of time from Meta’s apps” to those services and others, which has “forced Meta to invest gobs of cash to keep up.”
“Meta is not a monopolist insulated from competition,” he wrote. “The Court finds the evidence favoring Meta on this issue both credible and convincing.”
Boasberg also cited various documents and testimony from “industry insiders” that show how other tech companies like TikTok and YouTube viewed Meta as serious competition.
“TikTok and YouTube tracked Meta’s products as competitive threats,” Boasberg wrote.
WATCH: FTC chair on independence
A Waymo autonomous self-driving Jaguar taxi drives along a street on March 14, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
Mario Tama | Getty Images
Waymo on Tuesday said it will bring its robotaxi service to new cities in Texas and Florida in 2026.
The Alphabet-owned company said it plans to start operating its vehicles with no human driver assistants in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Miami and Orlando in the coming weeks before opening service in those markets to the public next year, the company said in a blog.
“Waymo has entered a new phase of commercial scale, doubling the number of cities we operate without a human specialist in the car,” Waymo Chief Product Officer Saswat Panigrahi said in an emailed statement Tuesday.
Waymo had previously announced plans to launch its robotaxi service in Dallas and Miami in 2026, but Tuesday was the first time the company said it planned to launch service next year in the other cities. Waymo will first offer fully autonomous trips to its employees in those markets, a spokesperson said.
The company has been gearing up to expand its paid robotaxis service in 2026. The company previously announced plans to expand to Detroit, Las Vegas, Nashville, San Diego, Washington, D.C., and London in 2026.
Waymo has also begun testing vehicles in New York City and Tokyo.
Last week, Waymo began offering freeway routes in the San Francisco, Phoenix and Los Angeles markets. The Google sister company will gradually extend freeway trips to more riders and locations over time.
Already, Waymo operates its paid robotaxi service in Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix, Atlanta and Los Angeles. The company has provided more than 10 million paid rides since first launching in 2020, the company said in May.
Waymo’s Florida and Texas expansion announcement comes the same day that Amazon-owned Zoox began allowing select San Francisco users to hail its driverless vehicles. San Francisco is the second market where Zoox now offers a free service, after its launch in Las Vegas in September. Zoox has deployed a fleet of 50 robotaxis between San Francisco and Las Vegas, the company told CNBC in September.
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