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Bitcoin still on track for .8M in 2035, says analyst

Bitcoin remains on track to surpass $1.8 million by 2035 despite recent price corrections and waning investor appetite caused by ongoing global trade tensions, according to Joe Burnett, director of market research at Unchained.

Speaking during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, Burnett said that Bitcoin is still in a long-term bullish cycle and could potentially rival or surpass gold’s $21 trillion market capitalization within the next decade.

Despite tariff uncertainty limiting risk appetite among investors, research analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term prospects for the next decade.

“When I think about where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, there are two models I admire,” Burnett said. “One is the parallel model, which suggests that Bitcoin will be about $1.8 million in 2035.” “The other is Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin 24 model, which suggests Bitcoin will be $2.1 million by 2035.”

Burnett emphasized that both are “good base cases,” adding that Bitcoin’s trajectory could exceed these predictions depending on broader macroeconomic factors.

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin outlook remains long-term bullish

“The automobile industry is significantly more valuable than the horse and buggy industry,” Burnett said, adding that Bitcoin’s more advanced technological properties will make it surpass the $21 trillion market capitalization of gold. He added:

“The gold market is an estimated $21 trillion market. If Bitcoin just hit $21 trillion and had Bitcoin-gold parity, Bitcoin would be $1 million per coin today.”

Since US President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, global markets have been under pressure due to heightened trade war fears. Hours after taking office, Trump threatened to impose sweeping import tariffs aimed at reducing the country’s trade deficit, weighing on risk sentiment across both equities and crypto.

While Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset may reemerge amid ongoing trade war concerns, physical gold and tokenized gold remain the current winners.

Bitcoin still on track for $1.8M in 2035, says analyst

Top tokenized gold assets, trading volume. Source: CoinGecko, Cex.io

Tariff fears led tokenized gold trading volume to surge to a two-year high this week, topping $1 billion for the first time since the US banking crisis in 2023, Cointelegraph reported on April 10.

Related: Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity: Double-edged sword during global market turmoil

Strong hands hold during drawdowns

Bitcoin’s volatility is falling during both bear and bull markets, signaling its growing maturity as an asset class.

While another 80% drawdown during future bear markets is still possible, this will act as a robust acquisition period for the “strongest” holders, Burnett said, adding:

“The highs bring [Bitcoin] attention, and the deep, dark bear markets move coins into the hands of the strongest, most convicted holders, as fast as possible.”

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, predicted Bitcoin could climb to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the US Federal Reserve formally enters a quantitative easing cycle.

Despite the optimistic predictions, investors remain cautious and continue “rebalancing their portfolios” but are unlikely to take on significant positions in the next 90 days before markets gain more clarity on global tariff negotiations, Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken, told Cointelegraph.

“With money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs, investors are looking for safer spots to hold their cash right now, including strong currencies. Gold’s a traditional vehicle in these cases and a go-to when markets are uncertain,” he added.

Bitcoin still on track for $1.8M in 2035, says analyst

BTC, gold, year-to-date chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Since the beginning of 2025, the price of gold has risen over 23%, outperforming Bitcoin, which has fallen by more than 10% year-to-date, TradingView data shows.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

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Rise in suicide attempts linked to HMRC tax crackdown as MPs criticise ‘sham’ review into loan charge schemes

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Rise in suicide attempts linked to HMRC tax crackdown as MPs criticise 'sham' review into loan charge schemes

Four more people have attempted to take their own life in relation to the loan charge scandal, which has left tens of thousands of contractors facing huge bills for tax their employers should have paid, Sky News has learnt.

HMRC has made 17 referrals to the police watchdog (Independent Office for Police Conduct) over the suicide attempts of 14 people, up from the 13 referrals of 10 people previously known about in October 2023.

The figures, revealed in response to a Freedom of Information request by Sky News, come on top of the 10 known suicides of people caught up in the controversial tax crackdown, which has alarmed MPs across the political spectrum.

The loan charge was announced in George Osborne’s 2016 budget and made freelancers liable for years of retrospective income and national insurance tax after being paid their salaries in loans.

George Osborne
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Former Tory chancellor George Osborne

HMRC has been accused of harassing ordinary people who were victims of mis-selling, as the arrangement was widely promoted by lawyers, accountants and tax professionals in the 2000s and 2010s.

Labour has launched an independent review into the policy but campaigners have branded it a “sham” and “cover-up” as it doesn’t look at the principle of the loan charge, only ways to make people settle.

‘Trapped in an endless nightmare’

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Father-of-three Ray Newton is one thousands of people who paid an umbrella company to manage his fees while working as an IT contractor for Barclays Bank from 2009-2010.

They paid him in tax-free loans on the assurance it was “completely above board”, but in 2016 he was hit with an unexpected HMRC bill of £16,000.

Ray Newton
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Ray Newton has faced demands for almost £60,000 from HMRC

Ray paid it off, but last year he suddenly faced demands for another £15,000 in income tax and £14,000 in interest that had been accruing the whole time without his knowledge. The “bombshell bill” also included £12,000 of inheritance tax on the loans despite them being classed as wages.

“Instead of going for the tax that was avoided they are going for the jugular,” said Ray, 70.

The bill arrived in the post after eight years of sporadic letters from HMRC saying Ray still needed to settle but not explaining why or by how much, often ignoring him when he inquired. It nearly destroyed him.

Ray Newton attempted suicided over the stress of the loan charge
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Ray attempted suicide over the stress of the loan charge

“I was literally begging – please tell me what it is I owe. It made me look as though I was a bad person… my wife actually left me and I got really in a state over this,” he said.

“I was having counselling, I was on antidepressant drugs, I was on sleeping pills. You know, my whole world was sort of falling apart. It was like being trapped in an endless nightmare.

“I did attempt suicide but I was stopped by a member of the public.”

Ray is now in a better place and is back with his wife, while HMRC has recently accepted the inheritance tax isn’t owed and giving him misleading or incorrect information.

But he is sceptical about the review.

“The government can’t afford or don’t want to afford the implications of a proper inquiry. This is going to be a whitewash.”

HMRC says it takes the wellbeing of all taxpayers seriously and is committed to identifying and supporting customers who need extra help with their tax affairs. It says it has made significant improvements to this service over the last few years.   

Sky News spoke to several loan charge victims who said while they didn’t dispute owing tax, HMRC’s chaotic communication was making it harder to settle and move on.

“The impact has been devastating”

For father-of-two Stephen Bishop, the long drawn-out battle contributed to the breakdown of his marriage and led him to express suicidal thoughts.

He was told to join a loan scheme by the company which hired him and has since faced demands in unpaid tax ranging from £80,000 – more than he’d earn in a year – to £20,000 while a payment plan set up in 2018 was randomly cancelled.

It took many more years to reach a new settlement and after £18,000 was finally agreed upon, he was whacked with a £10,000 interest bill for the late payment.

Stephen Bishop says the stress of HMRC's conduct impacted his marriage
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Stephen Bishop says the stress of HMRC’s conduct impacted his marriage

HMRC continued to contact him after he requested to go through his accountant due to his deteriorating mental health, with an inspector even showing up at his door.

“I can honestly understand why so many people have taken their own lives over this. The impact has been devastating on me,” he said.

What is being reviewed?

Since 2016, HMRC has agreed 25,000 settlements with employers and individuals over their use of loan schemes, which will raise around £4.2bn in revenue.

However, over 40,000 people and 5,000 employers are yet to settle.

Labour promised an “independent review” in opposition, with Treasury minister James Murray saying the loan charge had “become a nightmare for ordinary people… who are the victims of mis-selling and face financial ruin”.

The loan charge has left many people facing financial ruin
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The loan charge has left many people facing financial ruin

After winning the election Mr Murray also attended a “harrowing meeting” where many loan charge victims “broke down in tears”, according to Greg Smith, Tory co-chairman of the Loan Charge and Taxpayer Fairness all-party parliamentary group (APPG), who suggested the “partial review” was down to “wilful ignorance or the bottom line” and warned it could lead to more suicides if people continue to face financial ruin.

Campaigners hoped the inquiry would look at the principle of retrospective tax legislation, the role of promoters who made profits from the schemes and HMRC’s conduct.

However, it will only examine the barriers facing those who have yet to settle and recommend ways for them to so do by the summer. And it is being run by former HMRC boss Ray McCann, leading some to question its independence.

‘Internal stitch-up’

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, former Tory leader and another long-term critic of the loan charge, called the review an “internal HMRC stitch-up… ran by an ex-HMRC honcho”.

He said the loan charge is a “disaster” made by the tax office for being slow to crack down on the loan schemes and the government should “draw a line under this and write the debt off”.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith
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Sir Iain Duncan Smith

“It seems to me any MP that goes to be a minister of the Treasury gets taken prisoner by them. This should be a full-scale review where apportioning blame is part of this,” Mr Duncan Smith added.

Read more from Sky News:
Race to keep British Steel furnaces running
No evidence of ‘two-tier policing’ in summer riots, MPs say

In a letter responding to concerns of the APPG, Mr Murray said it would have been “irresponsible for the government not to acknowledge the challenging fiscal circumstances that we inherited” and “that is the context in which this review takes place”.

He also defended Mr McCann’s independence, saying the former president of the Chartered Institute for Taxation is “a highly respected figure in the tax world whose name was suggested by one of the loan charge campaigners”.

The government declined to comment further while the review is ongoing.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK

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Crypto markets ‘relatively orderly’ despite Trump tariff chaos: NYDIG

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Crypto markets ‘relatively orderly’ despite Trump tariff chaos: NYDIG

Crypto markets ‘relatively orderly’ despite Trump tariff chaos: NYDIG

Crypto markets have been fairly stable amid wider market panic caused by US President Donald Trump’s “on-again, off-again” sweeping global tariffs, according to a New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) analyst.

“Despite the carnage in traditional financial markets, the crypto markets have been relatively orderly,” NYDIG global head of research Greg Cipolaro said in an April 11 note. “Historically, in broad risk-off moves, we tend to see stresses show up in crypto markets. We have yet to see that.”

Cipolaro said crypto perpetual futures rates have “been persistently positive,” with liquidations spiking on April 6 and 7 in the days after Trump first announced the tariffs on April 2 but only to a total of $480 million, which he added “was well below other notable liquidation events.”

He noted that the price of Tether (USDT), a US dollar-tracking stablecoin widely used token in crypto trading, was below $1 but had “not experienced a sharp decline.” 

Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff regime on April 2 that lumped various levies on every country before pausing them for 90 days just hours after they came into effect on April 9 and instead charging a base tariff of 10%, besides China, which currently has tariffs of up to 145%.

Traditional and crypto markets tanked after Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, and many assets haven’t recovered to the same level as before their unveiling.

Crypto markets ‘relatively orderly’ despite Trump tariff chaos: NYDIG

Stocks, bonds and foreign exchange volatility rates all rose after Trump’s tariffs announcement. Source: NYDIG

Over the weekend, the Trump administration caused more confusion with its tariffs, saying on April 13 that an April 11 decision to exempt many electronics from tariffs was temporary and they would still be hit with levies.

Bitcoin fares well, declining volatility to make it widely attractive

Cipolaro said that Bitcoin (BTC) didn’t escape the market volatility, “but at current prices has fared far better than many other asset classes.”

He added that Bitcoin’s volatility hasn’t risen to historic levels, unlike the traditional markets, and “has been relatively stable” despite instability instigated by the Trump administration.

“Perhaps investors are increasingly searching for stores of value not tied to sovereign countries and thus not affected by the trade turmoil.”

Bitcoin is down 22.5% from its mid-January peak of over $108,000 and has traded flat over the past 24 hours at $84,730, according to CoinGecko.

Cipolaro said the narrowing gap between Bitcoin’s volatility and other assets makes it “increasingly more appealing” to funds with risk parity portfolios — those that use risk to choose asset allocations.

He added that investors are likely reducing their risk exposure but “perhaps some reallocation of asset mix to Bitcoin is one of the reasons it has been more buoyant.”

Related: S&P 500 briefly sees ‘Bitcoin-level’ volatility amid Trump tariff war

“Risk parity funds allocating to Bitcoin can help dampen its volatility — making the asset more attractive and potentially reinforcing a virtuous cycle of increased adoption and stability,” Cipolaro said.

However, YouHodler chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha told Cointelegraph in an April 12 note that despite a wider market rebound, “technical indicators are painting a concerning picture.”

He said a “death cross,” when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, is potentially forming on Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

Lienkha said the pattern is “generally considered a bearish signal for the medium term, suggesting that markets may struggle to sustain upward momentum without a clear catalyst or a stream of positive macroeconomic developments.” 

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Minister says he wouldn’t bring China into ‘sensitive’ steel industry again

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Minister says he wouldn't bring China into 'sensitive' steel industry again

The business secretary has told Sky News he would not bring a Chinese company into the “sensitive” steel sector again – after the government was forced to take control of British Steel.

Urgent legislation rushed through the House of Commons and House of Lords on Saturday gave ministers the power to instruct British Steel – owned by Chinese company Jingye – to keep the plant open.

The Steel Industry (Special Measures) Bill essentially allows the government to take control of British Steel “using force if necessary”, order materials for steelmaking and instruct that workers be paid. It also authorises a jail sentence of up to two years for anyone breaching this law.

Emergency bill becomes law – follow the latest reaction here

A general view shows British Steel's Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
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British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant. Pic: Reuters

Jonathan Reynolds told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that he would not “personally bring a Chinese company into our steel sector” again, describing steel as a “sensitive area” in the UK.

The business secretary agreed there is now a high trust bar for Chinese companies to be involved in the UK economy.

He said: “I think steel is a very sensitive area. I don’t know… the Boris Johnson government when they did this, what exactly the situation was. But I think it’s a sensitive area.”

More on British Steel

Jingye stepped in with a deal to buy British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant out of insolvency in 2020, when Mr Johnson was prime minister.

But the company recently cancelled orders for supplies of raw materials needed to keep blast furnaces running at the site – the last in the UK capable of producing virgin steel.

This threw the future of the steel industry into question, and ultimately led to MPs and peers being recalled from parliamentary recess to take part in a rare Saturday sitting when negotiations with Jingye appeared to break down.

An emergency bill to save the plant became law later that day.

Public ownership currently ‘likely option’

It stops short of full nationalisation of British Steel, but Reynolds told Sky News that public ownership remains the “likely option” for the future.

He said: “Well that remains an option. And to be frank, as I said to parliament yesterday, it is perhaps at this stage the likely option.”

Read more:
British Steel workers express fears over plant’s future
Why the hot spring weather is sliding away

However, the minister said he believes there is “potential” for a commercial private sector partner.

He said: “That is my preference, but I feel we’ve got to find a bridge to that. The kind of investments required for the transition to new steel technology, whichever technology that is, it’s a lot of money, a lot of capital.”

Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, said the government’s emergency bill amounts to a “botched nationalisation”.

He told Sky News the Conservatives supported the “least worst” option in the Commons on Saturday.

“There’s clearly still more work to do because the taxpayer is now picking up the bills for a business that is still owned by its Chinese owner,” the Tory frontbencher said.

“I hope the government will very quickly come back and clarify that situation.”

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