STILLWATER, Okla. — Redshirt freshman Baylor Hayes threw for 219 yards and a touchdown and Seth Morgan kicked four field goals to help Tulsa defeat Oklahoma State 19-12 on Friday night for the first time in 27 years.

Hayes started his second straight game in place of Kirk Francis and completed 23 of 36 passes without an interception for Tulsa (2-2), which last beat Oklahoma State in 1998. It was the Golden Hurricane’s first win in Stillwater since Nov. 3, 1951, ending a streak of 23 consecutive losses there.

The loss leaves things from bad to worse for coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys, who have won just one of their past 12 games dating to last season. They also fall to 0-9 when coming off a loss dating back to last season, their longest such streak in the AP Poll era (which dates to 1936).

“I thought (Tulsa) did a great job early in the game with some of the concepts that we hadn’t (anticipated) on defense,” Gundy said. “Really, through the first quarter, they outcoached us.

“I thought their quarterback played really well. He’s a good little operator. Made some plays and was able to run and scramble.”

Morgan kicked field goals of 27, 38 and 47 yards to give the Golden Hurricane a 16-3 halftime lead. He connected from 47 yards on Tulsa’s first drive of the third quarter to make it 19-3.

Oklahoma State (1-2) rallied after that behind Zane Flores, a third-year freshman making his second career start. Flores passed for 214 yards and rushed for 56, scoring on a 5-yard keeper to cut the deficit to 19-9 early in the fourth quarter.

Logan Ward‘s 49-yard field goal with 5:49 left in the quarter made it 19-12. The game ended when the Cowboys’ Gavin Freeman was pushed out of bounds at the Tulsa 10-yard line.

“I know we caught ’em at a bad time and they’re struggling right now, but it’s all about us right now,” Tulsa coach Tre Lamb said. “That’s a huge win for our program, that’s a statement win for me and our staff and our administration and I told the team new Tulsa’s back, and I told the ESPN guys that we don’t want to be on the second page of the paper.”

Oklahoma State was playing for the first time since a 69-3 loss to then-No. 6 Oregon on Sept. 6.

The Golden Hurricane rebounded in a big way following a 42-23 home loss to Navy. Tulsa’s defense held Oklahoma State to three points and 117 of its 403 total yards in the first half.

ESPN Research and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

If there’s an overriding storyline through three weeks, it has been about the winners and losers of some big bets on quarterbacks.

Miami bet on Carson Beck reviving his NFL prospects after a down year at Georgia. So far, he has delivered, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass with eight total touchdowns, and the Canes are ranked in the top five.

Oklahoma wagered Brent Venables’ future on John Mateer, and the Washington State transfer has been electric, leading the Sooners past Michigan in a Week 2 showdown and earning Heisman front-runner status.

Auburn felt sure former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold still had plenty of untapped potential, and through three weeks, he has looked like the superstar he once was, getting the Tigers to 3-0.

Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon all bet on in-house QBs rather than dipping into the transfer portal, and all have been rewarded.

Florida State, Indiana and Tulane hit pay dirt in the portal.

That’s the good news.

On the flip side, so many quarterbacks who were expected to provide massive dividends — Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, DJ Lagway, Nico Iamaleava, LaNorris Sellers — have wavered between average or awful.

Week 4 offers some chances for redemption, with Lagway getting another big test against Miami, Klubnik hoping to right the ship against Syracuse and UNC‘s Gio Lopez going on the road against UCF in the Tar Heels’ first real test since a blowout loss to TCU.

Some of the nation’s most talented young players have a chance to break through, too. CJ Carr can earn win No. 1 against woeful Purdue. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, coming off a strong performance against Central Michigan, has a much bigger test against Nebraska. Ole Miss’ Austin Simmons hopes to return from injury in time to make his mark in a showdown with Tulane.

The story is just beginning to be written, so there’s plenty of time for Manning, Klubnik and other preseason darlings to find their footing. But it has been a cold September for some of the nation’s most renowned passers, and Week 4 could be another opportunity for others to grab their share of the spotlight. — David Hale

Jump to:
Auburn-Oklahoma | Utah-Texas Tech
Quarterbacks who are falling short
Breakout players | Quotes of the week

What do each of these teams need to do to win?

Auburn: The Tigers have to disrupt Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer and make him pay for running the ball, and they have the ingredients to do so. Auburn is tied for sixth nationally in sacks per game (3.67) and tied for 12th in tackles for loss per game (8.7). Although Keldric Faulk is the headliner, Arkansas State transfer Keyron Crawford has been the team’s most disruptive pass rusher so far with three sacks and a forced fumble. The defense and run game, which ranks 16th nationally at 240 yards per game, ideally must reduce the pressure on quarterback Jackson Arnold in his highly anticipated return to Oklahoma. Arnold is completing nearly 70% of his passes, running the ball effectively and limiting mistakes, but the more Auburn’s other playmakers can take off his plate, the better the chances for a key road win. — Adam Rittenberg

Oklahoma: Arnold started nine games for the Sooners last fall. If anyone knows his weak spots, it’s Oklahoma coach Brent Venables. As Adam points out, Arnold (eight turnovers in 2024) has played efficient, mistake-free football in his first three games at Auburn. A Sooners defense that’s creating pressures on 44.6% of its snaps this season — 10th nationally, per ESPN Research — is built to change that and make Arnold uncomfortable, although Oklahoma will be without 2024 sack leader R Mason Thomas for the first half Saturday following a Week 3 targeting ejection. Mateer will have his own work cut out for him against the Tigers’ defensive front, but he should be able to find holes in a secondary that ranks 85th in yards allowed per game (220.0). The difference, ultimately, could come on the ground where a still-figuring-out Oklahoma rushing attack meets Auburn’s 10th-ranked run defense (67.0 yards per game) on Saturday. Freshman Tory Blaylock (5.4 yards per carry) has been the Sooners’ most effective running back through three games. — Eli Lederman

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How do each of these quarterbacks need to perform?

Utah: Through three games a year ago, Utah had gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives. This season, it has happened only three times in three games. The difference is Devon Dampier, who has looked as at ease running his brand of dual-threat football in a Power 4 backfield as he did a year ago at New Mexico. Dampier has racked up more than 800 yards of offense and accounted for eight touchdowns, and he has yet to turn the ball over. His skill set has made him particularly effective. He has already accumulated 80 yards on scramble plays, and three of his seven TD passes have come from outside the pocket. This will be his biggest test to date, but he’ll also be, by far, the biggest challenge for Texas Tech’s defense. — Hale

Texas Tech: Behren Morton hasn’t taken a snap after the third quarter across three straight 30-plus point victories to open the season. Still, Texas Tech’s senior quarterback enters Week 4 tied for No. 1 nationally in passing touchdowns (11) and ranks ninth in passing yards (923), leading the nation’s highest-scoring offense (58.0 PPG). Utah, with the nation’s 20th-ranked pass defense (134.0 yards per game), should present Morton with his toughest test yet in 2025. He’ll have to be accurate against an experienced Utes secondary, and Morton’s decision-making will be key, too, in the face of a Utah front seven that features the nation’s joint sack leader in John Henry Daley — five in three games — and blitzes on 42.6% of its snaps, the 10th-highest rate among FBS defenses, per ESPN Research. Most of all, Texas Tech will hope Morton’s experience (27 career starts) can keep its offense steady in the Red Raiders’ first visit to a notoriously hostile Rice-Eccles Stadium. — Eli Lederman

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Three quarterbacks who aren’t meeting their preseason hype

1. Arch Manning

Anyone can have a rough outing in a Week 1 matchup against the defending champs, and Manning looked fine a week later against San José State. So, nothing to worry about, right? Ah, not so fast. A dismal first half against UTEP ignited a full-on inferno of criticism of the preseason Heisman favorite, and for good reason. Manning is completing just 55% of his throws and has turned the ball over three times, and Texas has gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives so far. Add the sideline grimace that coach Steve Sarkisian chalked up to — well, we’re not quite sure — and it would be enough reason for concern even if Manning didn’t carry a legendary name and a ton of hype. That this all comes on the heels of such high expectations means Manning will be fighting critics for the foreseeable future.

2. Cade Klubnik

What’s wrong with Clemson‘s offense? The answers are everywhere, but none appear bigger than Klubnik, who has at times looked lost, frustrated or intimidated in the pocket. His 37.5 QBR through three games ranks 121st out of 136 FBS passers, and his miserable first-half performances — no passing touchdowns, two turnovers — have put Clemson in some early holes. Klubnik is completing less than 60% of his throws on the year, but the bigger issue is the number of open receivers he hasn’t even targeted in key moments. He has been sacked just three times this year, but he has gotten moved off his position too often, and abandoned ship even more frequently. So, what’s wrong with the Tigers? The better question is what’s wrong with the Tigers’ QB?

3. DJ Lagway

After last year’s hot finish, the assumption was that Lagway would take the next step in 2025 to becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Through three weeks, he’s nowhere close. Not only is Florida off to a 1-2 start, Lagway has been the primary culprit. He’s completing 71% of his throws, but nearly one-third of his throws are behind the line of scrimmage. He has done nothing to extend the field, attempting just seven throws of 20 yards or more. On those throws, he has one completion and two picks. Lagway’s six interceptions overall are tied for the second most nationally through three games. If Florida wants to turn things around amid a brutal schedule, it has to start with Lagway looking more like the player he appeared to be down the stretch in 2024. — Hale

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Five early breakout players

Rueben Bain Jr., DL, Miami: The 6-foot-3, 275-pound pass rusher is performing at an All-America level so far this season with 15 stops, 11 pressures, 2.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble through three games. Bain was a top-100 recruit and a Freshman All-American in 2023, so there’s nothing shocking about his rise, but he’s making the leap as a junior and proving he’s a no-doubt NFL draft first-round pick. As ESPN draft expert Jordan Reid put it, no other draft-eligible player in the sport is having a greater down-to-down impact than Bain.

Taylen Green, QB, Arkansas: Green is off to an incredible start to his second season under OC Bobby Petrino, leading the country in total offense with 866 passing yards, 307 rushing yards (most among all FBS QBs) and 13 total touchdowns. Last week against Ole Miss, he became the first QB in program history to surpass 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game. The Razorbacks came up short in their SEC opener but have seven more top-25 opponents on the schedule, which should give Green every opportunity to play his way into Heisman contention.

Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M: The Aggies faced Craver last year during his freshman season at Mississippi State and knew he could be a dangerous playmaker. He has been an absolute game changer for Marcel Reed and Texas A&M’s passing game with an FBS-leading 443 receiving yards and four TDs on just 20 receptions. The 5-foot-9, 165-pound wideout isn’t flying under the national radar anymore after burning Notre Dame’s secondary for a career-best 207 yards on seven catches, and his 279 yards after catch are nearly 100 more than any other pass catcher in the country.

Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy had a prolific freshman season at UL Monroe and hasn’t slowed down one bit since making his move to the SEC. He’s now the second-leading rusher in the FBS with 462 yards and five TDs after a ridiculous 250-yard day against Louisiana last week. The sophomore has played in only 15 career games, yet he already has three 200-yard performances on his résumé, and he leads all FBS backs with 29 forced missed tackles, according to ESPN Research.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, Cal: The true freshman from Hawaii was a late riser in the recruiting rankings as a high school senior, and we’re quickly learning why he became so coveted. Sagapolutele signed with Oregon but flipped back to Cal in early January, believing he’d have a chance to start right away for the Golden Bears. The 6-foot-3, 225-pound lefty has flashed big-time arm talent and exciting potential with 780 passing yards and seven total TDs while leading a 3-0 start. He’s becoming must-see TV on a Cal squad that looks poised to exceed expectations. — Max Olson

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Quotes of the Week

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney on speculation about his job security:
“Hey, listen, if Clemson’s tired of winning, they can send me on my way. But I’m gonna go somewhere else and coach. I ain’t going to the beach. Hell, I’m 55. I’ve got a long way to go. Y’all are gonna have to deal with me for a while.”

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on quarterback Arch Manning:
“Here’s a guy who’s had an awesome life, the way he’s grown up, the people he’s been surrounded by. I think you learn a lot about yourself through adversity and overcoming adversity. … When he gets on the other side of it, I think all of this is going to serve well not only for him, but for us as a team.”

LSU coach Brian Kelly:
“LSU won the football game, won the game. I don’t know what you want from me. What do you want? You want us to win 70-0 against Florida to keep you happy?”

Michigan fill-in coach Biff Poggi on Bryce Underwood:
“He might actually be Batman. We need to do a DNA test on him.”

Georgia Tech coach Brent Key addressing his team after beating Clemson:
“Enjoy the s— out of it, man. Guess what? Next week is going to be bigger.”

You could say that Saturday brings the first act of the 2025 college football season to a close.

Next week, we’ll get a couple of mammoth helmet games — Oregon at Penn State, Alabama at Georgia — and conference play will be fully underway. We’ll head into October talking a lot about playoff implications and the hierarchy among the sport’s top teams.

First, however, we have to tie up some loose ends. We get another week to figure out which of a large group of hyped-but-struggling quarterbacks — Texas’ Arch Manning, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Florida’s DJ Lagway, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier — will steer out of a current skid. We get a huge Illinois-Indiana game (just an amazing combination of words there). We get a matchup of two of the Big 12’s best and meanest teams to date (Texas Tech at Utah). We get former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and Auburn heading to Norman in a battle of SEC unbeatens. And we get another massive week in the Group of 5, with American Conference unbeatens Memphis and Tulane getting shots at SEC upsets and ambitious teams such as UNLV, North Texas and Boise State facing big road tests.

At the start of the college football season, 11 teams had at least a 2% chance of winning the national title, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Three weeks in, there are 13. Nothing has been even slightly decided through three weeks, and the door for chaos could open even further this weekend. Before we get to the second act of 2025, here’s everything you need to follow in a loaded Week 4.

All times Eastern.

Jump to a section:
Scuffling QBs | Indiana-Illinois
Big 12 headliner | SEC eliminators?
G5’s big weekend | Week 4 playlist
Small-school showcase

Which disappointing quarterback can rally?

Despite some chaotic undertones, the season has gone approximately as we thought it might. Among the top nine teams in the preseason SP+ rankings, six are still there, and the three others (Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan) haven’t exactly plummeted. Some teams have disappointed early on, but few seasons are completely lost.

For a quartet of quarterbacks, however, we’re approaching now-or-never territory: Either start looking like you were supposed to look or chalk up 2025 as a spectacular disappointment.

Florida at No. 4 Miami (7:30 p.m., ABC)

If DJ Lagway threw only three interceptions against LSU, the Gators might have scored an upset. That’s a positive, right? He instead threw five in a 20-10 loss, but the Florida defense still gave the Gators a chance. It has allowed only 38 points in three games.

The offense has scored only 26 in two FBS games. Opponents aren’t afraid of the run game, receivers aren’t getting open, and Lagway is developing some pretty extreme tendencies in passing to specific areas of the field (as evidenced by all the green “completion” dots along the right sideline on this chart):

Four of Lagway’s six 2025 interceptions have come on third-and-long, and a fifth came in a last-ditch drive against LSU. He’s trying desperately to make something happen, and it’s bringing out some terrible tendencies.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been good, and he has gotten the help Lagway hasn’t, from his offensive line and his receivers. But the Florida defense could make this one interesting if Lagway can take what he’s given by a Miami defense that ranks 83rd in yards allowed per dropback.

Current line: Miami -7.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 10.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 7.2

Syracuse at Clemson (noon, ESPN)

Like Lagway, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has performed far worse than expected and has gotten little help from his castmates. Syracuse has a history of overachieving against Clemson, but the Orange have the worst-rated FBS defense remaining on the Tigers’ schedule. If Clemson’s offense, currently 96th in points per drive, doesn’t get going now, when might that happen?

The Orange blitz a good amount, and blitzing has hurt Clemson because of a banged-up offensive line and a less-than-scary run game. Klubnik is getting hit a lot and throwing lots of passes short of the sticks. The timing of the offense is off, and the Tigers can’t afford to suffer another conference loss before they start to figure things out. The return of veteran receiver Antonio Williams, listed as probable for Saturday, can’t hurt.

Current line: Clemson -16.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 9.2 | FPI projection: Clemson by 9.6

Southeastern Louisiana at No. 3 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN)

With all proper respect to Southeastern Louisiana — the Lions are seventh in FCS SP+ with a loss to only Louisiana Tech — I’m guessing that LSU remains unbeaten Saturday. Now’s a good time to start repairing an LSU offense that ranks just 112th in points per drive.

Garrett Nussmeier has the most tenable place on this list; his team is unbeaten, and he’s 37th in Total QBR — not what was expected but far higher than anyone else here. His main issue is that he’s playing it safe. The LSU run game might be even worse than it was last year, the offensive line is committing too many penalties, and Nussmeier is throwing mostly quick passes to keep the train moving. His 65% completion rate is solid, but his average yards per completion has fallen from 12.0 (pretty low) to 10.0 (terribly low).

LSU’s line should hold up against SELA — if it doesn’t, yikes — so it will be interesting to see if Nussmeier starts looking further downfield. Now’s the time to build some better habits.

SP+ projection: LSU by 33.0 | FPI projection: LSU by 34.9

Sam Houston at No. 8 Texas (8 p.m., ESPN+)

Going by projections, Texas has the easiest game on this list. But Arch Manning might also be the most broken QB. After showing potential progress in Week 2, Manning completed just 11 of 25 passes for 114 yards, a touchdown and an interception against UTEP. The Miners mostly rushed only four defenders and forced Manning to work through progressions; he took forever to throw and was frequently inaccurate.

Manning is 124th out of 136 QBs with a 55.3% completion rate, and he’s 133rd in average time to throw (3.28 seconds). Meanwhile, his 14 dropbacks against man coverage have netted 13 total yards. His running backs are hurt, his line isn’t great, his receivers aren’t getting open enough and he’s throwing inaccurate passes. If the Texas offense doesn’t get right against a dreadful Sam Houston defense, it might not happen.

Current line: Texas -39.5 (down from -41.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 40.0 | FPI projection: Texas by 37.7

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Shades of 1950 in Bloomington

No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (7:30 p.m., NBC)

On Oct. 28, 1950, “Goodnight Irene,” performed by The Weavers, was dominating the airwaves. “All About Eve,” starring Bette Davis and featuring a young Marilyn Monroe, was in theaters. SMU was No. 1 in the country, Bear Bryant’s Kentucky was No. 4 and live college football wasn’t found on national television.

It was a long time ago, is what I’m saying. And it was the last time Illinois and Indiana met as ranked foes. In that game, the No. 12 Fighting Illini rode spectacular line play to a 20-0 win over the No. 19 Hoosiers. History hasn’t been kind to either program since. But that has shifted of late.

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers and Bret Bielema’s Illini are a combined 27-5 since the start of 2024, and though neither has played an opponent ranked higher than 65th in SP+, both are in the top 15 in points and points allowed per drive this season. They’re treating iffy opposition like excellent teams are supposed to.

Both teams dominate in the Little Things department — red zone, field position, turnovers — and both boast efficient offenses with dominant receivers: Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. has 299 yards and four TDs, while Illinois’ Hank Beatty has caught 19 of 20 passes for 289 yards and a TD. Each defense has allowed a few big plays, but they’re both still giving up 4.6 or fewer yards per play.

We know that blue bloods get the best TV ratings, but these two teams have earned this prime-time slot. The computers and sportsbooks lean toward Indiana — and frankly, it’s odd that Illinois is ranked 10 spots higher in the polls — but it would be a surprise if this one didn’t go down to the wire.

Current line: Indiana -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 3.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 3.1

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A Big 12 headliner in Salt Lake City

No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (noon, Fox)

If you take preseason projections out of the equation — a terrible idea if you want predictive accuracy, but an intriguing way to look at performance to date — Texas Tech would be first in SP+ and Utah would be eighth. The Red Raiders have overwhelmed three bad opponents by an average score of 58-12, and the Utes lead the Big 12 in early overachievement, topping SP+ projections by an average of 13.7 points per game. On Saturday, one of these teams will score a huge early Big 12 win.

Tech’s defense gives up quite a few big plays, while Utah’s offense, as is customary, doesn’t make many. The Utes rank first in rushing success rate, but so does Tech’s defense. Defensive tackles A. J. Holmes Jr. and Skyler Gill-Howard have eaten up interior run blockers, but the Utah line is one of the most proven in the country, and quarterback Devon Dampier and RBs NaQuari Rogers and Wayshawn Parker keep Utah on schedule.

Even with huge leads in each game, Texas Tech has passed more than 35 times per game at a fast tempo. The Red Raiders are third in yards per dropback, and Behren Morton is completing 70% of his passes at 16.2 yards per completion. Receiver Coy Eakin‘s early numbers (245 yards at 20.4 per catch) are scary.

As you’d expect, however, Utah’s pass defense looks good, too: eighth in completion rate, ninth in interception rate, 24th in yards per dropback. The Utes have given up a few more third-and-long conversions than expected, and if that remains an issue, Tech might never give up the ball. Regardless, there are strength-versus-strength matchups everywhere. This game will be awfully fun.

Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 1.9 | FPI projection: Utah by 3.8

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SEC elimination(ish) day

As with Indiana-Illinois in the Big Ten, the SEC has a couple of huge games among teams that aren’t necessarily conference title contenders — though, we don’t know for sure yet — but are jockeying for 10-2 records and potential CFP bids.

No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Oklahoma’s ridiculously back-loaded schedule — six of its final seven opponents rank 17th or higher in SP+ — meant that the Sooners would need a fast start. So far, so good. They’re 3-0 with a win over Michigan despite an offense that remains a work in progress. Quarterback John Mateer might be the current Heisman betting favorite, but the run game averages just 4.3 yards per carry (not including sacks), and the Sooners have fumbled five times with lots of passes broken up. Their five turnovers (104th nationally) haven’t come from bad luck.

Still, Mateer is creating big plays with his arm, and four Sooner pass catchers are on pace for 50-plus receptions. Plus, the OU defense doesn’t need a ton of help — the Sooners rank fourth in points allowed per drive and third in yards allowed per play.

They’re also sixth in rushing success rate allowed, and that might be the most important number against Auburn. The Tigers are running the ball a ton, with the combo of running back Jeremiah Cobb and quarterback Jackson Arnold carrying a heavy load. They’re avoiding must-pass situations — which doomed Arnold as OU’s QB in 2024 — but they’ll likely face some Saturday afternoon, and we’ll learn if Arnold has improved a little or a lot from last year’s disastrous campaign.

Current line: OU -6.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 7.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.8

South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (7 p.m., ESPN)

Missouri is one of just 16 teams to overachieve against SP+ projections in all three games, and the Tigers are up to 11th in SP+ because of it. The offense looks great because of a trio of transfers: quarterback Beau Pribula (on pace for 3,100 passing yards), running back Ahmad Hardy (1,800 rushing yards), and receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (1,000 receiving yards).

South Carolina has the first top-50 defense (per SP+) the Tigers have faced, though the Gamecocks got worked over by Vanderbilt’s efficient attack last week in a jarring 31-7 loss. They don’t give up many big plays, but they rank 73rd in success rate. Mizzou’s offense ranks 12th.

The South Carolina offense saw plenty of offseason hype, but it has been an absolute dud, scoring just five touchdowns in three games and ranking 123rd in points per drive. Receivers Nyck Harbor and Donovan Murph are averaging 21.6 yards per catch, but at only four catches per game. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has become even more sack-prone — I probably should have put him on the disappointing QBs list above — and this week, he has had to work through concussion protocol while preparing to face a Mizzou defense that grades out as well as or better than Vandy’s.

Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are projected favorites in only two more games this season. Either they get back on track immediately or 2025 veers into “Lost Season” territory.

Current line: Mizzou -10.5 (down from -12.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 13.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 9.5

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Another huge weekend for the Group of 5

The race for the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff spot could see some twists this week, with two major hopefuls (Memphis and Tulane) getting shots at SEC upsets, and three others — UNLV, North Texas and Boise State — all facing tricky road trips.

Arkansas at Memphis (noon, ABC)

Memphis has looked awesome early and gets AAC opponents South Florida, Tulane and Navy at home. SP+ gives the Tigers a 36% chance of finishing 11-1 or better. Quarterback Brendon Lewis and running back Sutton Smith (in for the injured Greg Desrosiers Jr.) lead an efficient offense, and the defense has crushed bad offenses (including a Troy offense that lost its starting QB early on).

Arkansas’ offense, however, is as explosive as ever, thanks to quarterback Taylen Green, running back Mike Washington Jr. and receiver O’Mega Blake. The Razorbacks could be a permanent track-meet team thanks to a shaky defense, but Arkansas is capable of regularly winning those track meets, too.

Current line: Arkansas -7.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.5 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 2.4

Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

It’s hard to figure out how good Tulane actually is. The Green Wave made runs of 27-0 against South Alabama and 24-3 against Duke but let both opponents back into the game. Jake Retzlaff is 11th in Total QBR, but the run game moves backward a lot. The defense is a turnover machine, but it’s inefficient otherwise. Against whichever Ole Miss QB holds the reins — the injured Austin Simmons or backup Trinidad Chambliss, who destroyed Arkansas — the Green Wave will need far more stops than they’ve been making. Ole Miss’ run defense has been damningly bad, but the Rebels probably have too much firepower for Tulane to snag a third power-conference victory.

Current line: Ole Miss -13.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 17.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 13.8

UNLV at Miami (Ohio) (noon, ESPNU)

After a rough start against Idaho State in Week 0, Dan Mullen’s UNLV has begun to look the part, and SP+ gives the Rebels a 14% chance of getting to 11-1 or better. Anthony Colandrea is fifth among G5 quarterbacks in Total QBR, both RB Jai’Den Thomas and WR Jaden Bradley are on pace for 1,000-yard seasons, and the defense has at least stabilized a bit.

Miami was outscored 62-17 by Wisconsin and Rutgers, but the RedHawks gave up almost no big plays, and with explosive quarterback Dequan Finn and receivers Keith Reynolds and Kam Perry on offense, they could make UNLV’s long road trip awkward.

Current line: UNLV -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 8.4 | FPI projection: UNLV by 3.3

North Texas at Army (noon, CBSSN)

In two home games, quarterback Drew Mestemaker and North Texas have overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 77.6 points. In their lone road game, the Mean Green nearly lost to No. 122 Western Michigan. They’ll need to play far better in West Point against an Army team that sure looked like Army again in Week 2’s upset of Kansas State. Quarterback Cale Hellums rushed for 124 yards and led five drives of double-digit plays in Manhattan, Kansas, and if Hellums remains steady moving forward, Army will be a giant pain for any AAC team with CFP aspirations. Like North Texas.

Current line: North Texas -2.5 (flipped from Army -2.5) | SP+ projection: Army by 2.2 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.2

Boise State at Air Force (7 p.m., CBSSN)

Boise State’s season-opening faceplant at USF, combined with an upcoming trip to Notre Dame, removed all margin for error. The Broncos will likely have to sweep Mountain West play to have any hope of a CFP bid. Of course, they’re projected favorites in every MWC game, and they still have massive talent with running back Sire Gaines, defensive tackle David Latu, edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and safety Ty Benefield.

Air Force has been a pain for BSU plenty of times, and the Falcons still dominate the ball. But the defense got torched by Utah State last week. Not an encouraging sign.

Current line: BSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 10.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 11.2

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Week 4 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Our winning streak ended last week when Miami, Ole Miss (barely), Alabama and Auburn all won. But we’re still 2-for-3 on the young year, and now it’s time to move to 3-for-4!

Sticking with this week’s “Anatomy of a mid-major upset” theme, SP+ says there’s only a 38% chance that Washington (88% win probability against Washington State), Cal (80% against San Diego State), Colorado (75% against Wyoming) and BYU (72% against East Carolina) all win. Let’s take down a power-conference team!

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Week 4 playlist

Here are some more games you should follow if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Iowa at Rutgers (8 p.m., Fox). In theory, few matchups scream “ROCK FIGHT!!” like Iowa-Rutgers, but Rutgers is ninth in points per possession and 83rd in points allowed per possession. Iowa has little big-play potential, but the Hawkeyes have moved the ball well against mortal defenses. So, maybe this one isn’t destined to finish 7-6 or 5-3 or something.

Current line: Iowa -2.5 | SP+ projection: Rutgers by 0.2 | FPI projection: Rutgers by 1.6

Tulsa at Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., ESPN). At the moment, this is the last game in which OSU is a projected favorite. Either the Cowboys use this as a spectacular get-right game after their 66-point humiliation at Oregon in Week 2 — or there’s (more) pain on the horizon in Stillwater.

Current line: OSU -12.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 9.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 11.0

Early Saturday

SMU at TCU (noon, ESPN2). The Battle for the Iron Skillet! Few teams have underachieved against SP+ projections more than SMU through three games; maybe a rivalry game will wake up the Mustangs. If not, TCU’s big-play offense could have a lot of fun against an SMU defense that has given up loads of chunk plays.

Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.4 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.7

UAB at No. 15 Tennessee (12:45 p.m., SECN). Trent Dilfer’s third UAB team has been the same “solid offense, no defense” squad as his past two. If Tennessee is still reeling from last week’s heartbreaker against Georgia, the Blazers might land a punch or two, but not 60 minutes’ worth.

Current line: Vols -38.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 37.0 | FPI projection: Vols by 36.4

Maryland at Wisconsin (noon, NBC). Per SP+, Wisconsin has only a 26% chance of reaching bowl eligibility this season, thanks to a schedule that already featured one top opponent and has five more to go. Lose to Maryland, and those odds fall to basically nil. At least it sounds like injured quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. — formerly a Terrapin — could be ready to go.

Current line: Wisconsin -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 0.4 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 5.1

Saturday afternoon

No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., CBS). Two years ago, Nebraska was on the wrong end of a 45-7 blowout loss to Michigan at home. Now, on paper, the Huskers have basically a 50-50 shot at taking down the Wolverines and scoring their biggest win since, what, 2015 (39-38 over No. 7 Michigan State)?

Current line: Michigan -1.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 1.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 0.1

Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Well, Notre Dame, it’s time to start scoring some style points. After losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the Irish will have to win out to have serious hope of a CFP shot, and they might have only one more genuine marquee win opportunity — USC in Week 8, and that’s only if the Trojans maintain their current form. So, it’s time to wreck some opponents. (Purdue might have something to say about that. Especially if the Irish defense doesn’t start defending.)

Current line: ND -26.5 | SP+ projection: ND by 20.4 | FPI projection: ND by 20.3

NC State at Duke (4 p.m., ESPN2). Duke has allowed 18 gains of 20-plus yards (tied for 122nd nationally). NC State has given up eight of 30-plus (tied for 114th). With State’s Hollywood Smothers and Wesley Grimes and Duke’s Nate Sheppard and Cooper Barkate, this could be a great game to be an explosive skill corps guy.

Current line: Duke -3.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 1.2 | FPI projection: NC State by 0.1

North Carolina at UCF (3:30 p.m., Fox). I have no idea about either of these teams. Bill Belichick’s UNC has collected itself since its embarrassing Week 1 loss to TCU, and UCF has been good enough in Scott Frost’s first two games back in town. But anything from a 35-point UNC win to a 35-point UCF win wouldn’t surprise me.

Current line: UCF -7.5 | SP+ projection: UCF by 7.0 | FPI projection: UCF by 11.2

Temple at No. 18 Georgia Tech (4:30 p.m., The CW). Temple can make some big plays and could make things messy if Georgia Tech lets its guard down after last week’s big win over Clemson. The Yellow Jackets haven’t given us any reason to think that’s possible, though. (By the way, they’re projected favorites in their next eight games.)

Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 21.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.9

Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (3 p.m., BTN). Three weeks into the season, Oregon has risen from seventh to second in SP+ while OSU has fallen from 75th to 107th. We will need to conjure a lot of Weird Rivalry Magic to make this one interesting.

Current line: Oregon -34.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 40.1 | FPI projection: Oregon by 36.3

Saturday evening

Arizona State at Baylor (7:30 p.m., Fox). Arizona State finally checked into the 2025 season, putting away a spirited Texas State team with relative ease last week. Now, the close-game festival that is Big 12 Play begins against a Baylor team that might have transformed its season with Week 2’s wild comeback win over SMU.

Current line: Baylor -2.5 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.8 | FPI projection: Baylor by 0.8

West Virginia at Kansas (6 p.m., FS1). Kansas got a week to recover after a blown lead and a rivalry loss to Missouri; WVU is riding the crest of a big comeback and a rivalry win over Pitt. Who’s ready to move past the emotion and start the rest of their season? I’m pretty sure Kansas is still good, and WVU’s offense might have finally begun its season late against Pitt.

Current line: Kansas -13.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 7.1 | FPI projection: Kansas by 9.7

BYU at East Carolina (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). ECU has overachieved against SP+ projections by nearly three touchdowns per game. The Pirates could be good. And they get to give BYU’s freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier his first big road test. But the Pirates will have to score on BYU’s defense, which is first in points per drive and yards per play.

Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 9.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.0

Washington at Washington State (7:30 p.m., CBS). Washington State was impressive in its 36-13 runaway win over San Diego State in Week 2. Then, the Cougs went to North Texas and got absolutely blasted 59-10. Week 2 Wazzu and a torrid Martin Stadium would make this awfully tricky for Washington. Week 3 Wazzu … would not.

Current line: UW -20.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 18.6 | FPI projection: UW by 21.0

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). From 2021 through 2024, each of these proud old mid-major programs went 14-35 with an SP+ ranking of about 112.5. Now, both are 2-1 with at least a 60% chance of bowl eligibility. Can Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton engineer enough points on a Tech defense allowing 12.3 points per game?

Current line: Tech -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.7

Late Saturday

Michigan State at No. 25 USC (11 p.m., Fox). A kickoff at 11 p.m. ET for a team based in Eastern Time? Cool. Makes perfect sense. Anyway, USC is averaging 55 points per game and 9.6 yards per play, and Michigan State has topped 40 points for two straight games. I don’t think the Spartans have the defense to make this a game for 60 minutes, but this could have Pac-12 After Dark vibes for a while.

Current line: USC -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 17.7 | FPI projection: USC by 24.2

California at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal are 3-0 and projected favorites in the next six games. But they’re 94th in third-down conversion rate, and SDSU’s defense ranks seventh. If the Aztecs can score a bit (not a given), they could make this one tricky.

Current line: Cal -12.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 13.2 | FPI projection: Cal by 10.9

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 6 Mary Hardin-Baylor (noon, local streaming). These programs lorded over Division III for nearly 15 years before getting surpassed by North Central. Both are still talented and dangerous, and they’re meeting for the seventh straight season (not including 2020). UWW has produced a 200-yard rusher in each of its first two games, but a third straight, against the Crusaders’ defense, would be a surprise.

SP+ projection: Whitewater by 1.2

Division III: No. 3 Johns Hopkins at No. 4 Susquehanna (1 p.m., FloFootball). The second D-III game on the list is even bigger: JHU backed up its top-five standing with a 27-13 win over No. 20 John Carroll last week and boasts the second-best defense in D-III, per SP+. Susquehanna, meanwhile, ranks fifth on offense. It might be North Central vs. The Field in D-III, but either of these teams could make a deep playoff run.

SP+ projection: Susquehanna by 0.3

FCS: No. 23 New Hampshire at Dartmouth (1 p.m., ESPN+). An incredibly interesting Ivy League season finally opens Saturday: The league champ will participate in the FCS playoffs for the first time, and at first glance, it looks like we have a three-team race among Harvard, Yale and a Dartmouth team that gets an immediate shot at a résumé win of sorts. UNH nearly beat Ball State last week — it was actually a bit of an upset that the Wildcats didn’t — and boasts one of the stingier defenses the Big Green attack will see all season.

SP+ projection: Dartmouth by 1.7

(One game you shouldn’t track? Rio Grande at Ferris State. That’s the second-worst team in NAIA, per SP+ — pronounced “Ry-Oh Grand” and located in the same Ohio town as the first Bob Evans restaurant — facing the class of Division II. SP+ projects Ferris State as a tidy 97.2-point favorite. The final score will be whatever the Bulldogs want it to be. If morbid curiosity gets the best of you, it kicks off at 3 p.m. on FloFootball.)