Demand spike, incentives bust, and tariffs: Renewable energy’s biggest stress test is here
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Electricity grid demands are on the rise in part due to energy-hungry technology like AI, and while experts believe renewable energy alone is not enough, it is essential to a broader supply equation. But with funding freezes, subsidy walk backs and tariffs on key components all on the table, solar, wind, and hydrogen companies are working harder than ever to make their business models work, even if they never intended to rely on federal support for the long term.
“One of the hats I used to wear was planning for the City of New York. For the longest time, there was decreasing [energy] demand,” said Aseem Kapur, chief revenue officer of GM Energy, an arm of General Motors that the company introduced in 2022. “Over the course of the last five or so years, that equation has changed. Utilities are facing unprecedented demand.”
Beyond New York City, U.S. energy demand is poised to grow upwards of 16% in the next five years, a big difference from the 0.5%it grew each year on average from 2001 to 2024, according to the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
For the renewable energy companies looking to break into the mainstream, subsidies have helped them get through their early days of growth. But President Trump has targeted these solutions from the first day of his presidency. In an executive order from Jan. 20, the Trump administration promised to “unleash” an era of fossil fuels exploration and production while also eliminating “unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor EVs over other technologies.” Last week, Trump issued an EO pushing for more coal production.
In a six-year study breaking down energy subsidies from the U.S. Energy Information Administration from 2022 (the most recent edition), 46% of federal energy subsidies were associated with renewable energy, making them the largest slice of the energy pie. At the same time, natural gas and petroleum subsidies became a net cost to the government in 2022, reversing what had been a source of revenue inflows.
“Every company I’ve talked to recognizes that subsidies were required to help them through an R&D cycle, but they all believed they had to get to a cost parity point,” said Ross Meyercord, CEO of Propel Software (and former Salesforce CIO), whose manufacturing software solution serves energy clients like Invinity Energy Systems and Eos Energy Storage. “Every company had that baked into their business model. It may happen faster than they were planning on, and obviously that creates challenges.”
Meyercord believes that clean energy companies can handle either a subsidy decrease or a rise in tariffs, but both at the same time will add substantial stress to the market, which could have negative downstream effects on the grid — and the people who rely on it.
‘Not going to get rid of fossil fuels overnight’
Like any energy source, Kapur says success always comes down to economics. In the current environment, with interest rates, and fears that inflation will reignite, he said, “it’s going to come down to, ‘What are the most cost-effective solutions that can be brought to market?'” That may vary by region, he added, but notes that solar and energy storage have already reached parity in many cases and, in some instances, are below the cost of producing energy from natural gas or coal-powered resources.
This economics equation is true even in Texas, where the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton has voiced anti-renewables sentiment in favor of the coal market (his lawsuit against major investment firm BlackRock and others in late November claims these firms sought to “weaponize their shares to pressure the coal companies to accommodate ‘green energy’ goals”). Wind accounts for 24% of the state’s energy profile, according to the Texas Comptroller, suggesting a penchant for any energy source that’s viable and cost-effective.
“The reality is, we’re not going to get rid of fossil fuels overnight,” said Whit Irvin Jr., CEO of hydrogen energy company Q Hydrogen. “They are going to have a very significant piece in our energy ecosystem for decades, and as new technologies come out on a larger scale, the use of fossil fuels will be curtailed, but we need to continue research, development and innovation in a way that makes sense.”
Irvin emphasizes the need for innovation from all sides, including creating new technologies that have a massive impact on large scalability and carbon reduction. “We don’t want to turn off that spigot. We just want to make sure that it’s going to the right places,” he said.
Hydrogen energy itself is one such source of innovation. Hydrogen ranges in sustainability depending on the fuel it uses to source its hydrogen. For example, green hydrogen — the only climate-neutral form of hydrogen energy — stems from renewable energy surplus. Grey hydrogen stems from natural gas methane. Q Hydrogen is working to open the world’s first renewable hydrogen power plant that will be economically viable without a subsidy. Irvin Jr. says the company, which produces hydrogen using water, plans to launch its New Hampshire facility this year.
“Hydrogen fuel cells are a really good way to provide backup power or even prime power to a data center that would be considered essentially off grid,” said Irvin, likening hydrogen fuel cell production to a form of battery storage. While hydrogen is not the most economical because of its comparative immaturity, Irvin said heightened energy demand will outcompete cost sensitivity for tech companies requiring more and more data storage.
While hydrogen projects continue to reap federal incentives to propel the industry forward, Irvin said subsidies were never part of his company’s business equation. “If they do exist, we’ll be able to take advantage of them,” he said. “If they don’t exist, that will still be fine for us.”
But that might not be true for every alternative energy company depending on where they’re at in the R&D cycle. Changes in federal incentives have real power to shift the progression of renewable energy in the U.S., especially when combined with tariffs that could stifle companies’ international relationships and supply chains. Meyercord, Kapur and Irvin all foresee private industry partnerships making a huge impact for the future of the grid, but recognize that the strain is increasing as energy tech of all kinds becomes smarter and more grid-dependent.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaks to members of the media as he arrives at a lodge for the Allen & Co. Sun Valley Conference on July 8, 2025 in Sun Valley, Idaho.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oracle‘s historic stock surge this week marked the latest chapter in the story of a single private company that’s dominated the tech landscape for almost three years: OpenAI.
In Oracle’s blowout earnings report, OpenAI was a key catalyst due to a massive amount of money the artificial intelligence startup expects to spend on cloud computing technology in the coming years.
It’s becoming a familiar theme.
A week earlier, Broadcom shares popped almost 10% after the chipmaker and software vendor said it forged a $10 billion deal to build custom processors for a customer that analysts said was OpenAI.
Among tech’s megacaps, Microsoft has the closest link to OpenAI, having invested more than $13 billion in the company and serving as its key cloud partner for six years. Nvidia’s march to becoming the world’s most valuable company is intimately tied to OpenAI, as its graphics processing units (GPUs) sit at the heart of large language model development and are essential for running big AI workloads.
Those four companies alone — Oracle, Broadcom, Microsoft and Nvidia — have seen their combined market caps swell by over $4.5 trillion since OpenAI burst into public view with the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. And those gains are a big reason why the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have sustained sharp rallies, with both benchmarks closing at a record on Friday.
OpenAI’s outsized influence has some market experts understandably concerned. It remains a cash-burning startup that’s governed by a nonprofit parent.
The company’s $500 billion valuation is supported by a small number of investors betting that OpenAI will prevail in the face of hefty competition from the likes of Meta and Google as well as other highly-valued newcomers like Anthropic and any number of players out of China.
“While we love ChatGPT, OpenAI is still a not for profit limited in its ability to raise capital,” said Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, in an interview with CNBC.
Luria, who recommends holding Oracle shares, dug into the company’s numbers as the stock was in the midst of a 36% jump on Wednesday, its biggest gain since 1992.
In its quarterly earnings report late Tuesday, Oracle said it signed four multibillion-dollar contracts with three different customers during the period. One of those was with OpenAI, which said previously that it agreed to develop 4.5 gigawatts of U.S. data center capacity with Oracle.
Investors knew, based on a filing with the SEC in June, that Oracle signed a $30 billion cloud contract with an unnamed company that’s set to begin in two years. CNBC confirmed a Wall Street Journal report from Wednesday that OpenAI has agreed to spend $300 billion in computing power over about five years, starting in 2027.
In the two trading days after its historic pop, Oracle’s stock retreated, dropping more than 6% on Thursday and another 5% on Friday, as other investors began sharing Luria’s concerns.
The new revelations about OpenAI’s massive cloud commitment provided a clearer sense of Oracle’s expanding backlog. Oracle said its performance obligations, a measure of contracted revenue that has not yet been recognized, surged 359% from a year earlier to to $455 billion.
Luria said the concentration of Oracle’s backlog with a single customer “significantly reduces” enthusiasm, particularly if “more than 90% came from OpenAI.”
Oracle didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Altman’s open wallet
OpenAI has made big commitments to several other cloud providers, including CoreWeave and Google, and reportedly plans to put $19 billion toward Stargate, a project President Donald Trump announced in January to bolster AI infrastructure investments in the U.S. Stargate is a joint venture between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, which is separately leading a planned $40 billion investment in OpenAI.
Luria said the takeaway is that “Sam Altman has the gumption to sign very large checks without needing to worry about whether those can ever be cashed.”
OpenAI declined to comment.
While OpenAI will be losing money for the foreseeable future, the company is expecting revenue growth to continue at a breakneck pace. After hitting $10 billion in annual recurring revenue in June, OpenAI is on pace for that number to reach $125 billion by 2029, CNBC confirmed.
And on Thursday, OpenAI got a step closer to formalizing its transition to a for-profit entity. The company said its nonprofit parent will continue to have oversight over the business and will own an equity stake of more than $100 billion as the commercial entity becomes a public benefit corporation.
OpenAI needs the restructuring to take place by year-end in order to secure the entirety of the $40 billion from its latest financing round.
For Oracle, the massive increase in OpenAI spending has landed the company within shouting distance of the trillion-dollar club, which currently includes eight tech peers. Oracle’s market cap climbed to about $930 billion on Wednesday before retreating to $830 billion to close the week.
Byron Deeter, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, told CNBC’s “Money Movers” that he’s still skeptical of Oracle’s prospects in AI. The company has spent years trying to play catchup in cloud infrastructure, where it trails Amazon, Microsoft and Google.
Deeter said Oracle remains a “B-level hyperscaler” without meaningful positions in AI software or chips.
“Two days ago, we all thought Oracle was essentially nowhere in AI,” Deeter said, following the earnings report. “They announce this mega-deal, people think they’re the next great hyperscaler – and I don’t buy that part.”
Fortescue is marching towards zero emissions as it invests in new, zero-emission mining equipment options across its global operations. And that investment? It’s already paying off. One analyst says the company’s saving almost $400 million in fuel costs alone. Each year.
From massive, Liebherr-built electric haul trucks and excavators to more than $400 million in Chinese equipment from XCMG, Fortescue is putting its money where its mouth is and making real efforts to decarbonize its global mining operations.
“We’re moving rapidly to decarbonize our Pilbara iron ore operations and eliminate our Scope 1 and 2 terrestrial emissions by 2030. To achieve this target, we will need to swap out hundreds of pieces of diesel mining equipment at the end of their life with zero emissions alternatives,” said Fortescue Metals Chief Executive Officer, Dino Otranto, when the XCMG order was announced. “As the global mining industry continues to evolve, we’re proud to be at the forefront of driving innovation in value adding green technology and showing the world that industry can decarbonize.”
Those efforts aren’t just cutting back on air pollution. Electric equipment assets are helping to keep the company’s workers safe and healthy, too. What’s more, they’re saving the company money – they’re already seeing $300-400 million in fuel savings annually.
Liebherr T264 electric haul truck
The Liebherr T264 electric haul trucks now working for Fortescue defy common sense notions of size, scale, and power. Each truck tips the scales at 176 tonnes (194 tons) and can haul more than 240 tonnes (265 tons) of payload thanks to powerful electric motors and a big-as-a-house-sized 3.2 MWh battery that can be recharged in a little over 30 minutes by Liebherr’s proprietary 6 MW DC fast charger.
If you could keep the car from exploding, that 6 MW (that’s 6,000 kW to you and me) charger could zap a Tesla Model Y Long Range’s 75 kWh battery in some thirty (30) seconds.
“Fortescue has ordered 360 of (T264 battery electric haul trucks) as part of a $4 billion deal with Liebherr to electrify operations at its enormous iron ore mines,” says Gavin Mooney, general manager at Australian energy software platform, Kaluza. “Fuel and energy costs are Fortescue’s biggest operating costs as well as largest source of emissions. By electrifying operations like this it will be able to kill two birds with one stone.”
Battery electric vehicles have moved millions of tons of material at Fortescue mines over the last two years alone, and continue to keep the minerals moving with minimal less impact to the environment.
Electrek’s Take
With billions of dollars on the line and pressure to reduce carbon emissions coming from all sides, it should come as no surprise that the race is on to bring practical, electric, and autonomous heavy mining equipment to market. At CES 2024, electric equipment from Hyundai, Bobcat, Volvo CE, and Caterpillar garnered lots of attention with their innovative concepts, and analysts like IDTechEx estimate that a single 150-ton haul truck can use over $850,000 worth of fuel in a single year.
Meanwhile, big electric haul trucks like this 240 ton unit from Caterpillar can, in certain use cases with high amounts of regenerative braking, operate without any significant cost to recharge. At that point, the reduced maintenance and downtime of BEVs compared to diesel vehicles becomes icing on the TCO cake.
We spoke to Fortescue Zero executives a few months ago on a special interview episode of Quick Charge. Check it out (above) then let us know what you think of Fortescue’s fuel savings in the comments.
Sources links throughout; featured image by Fortescue Zero.
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This world’s first fully electric deconstruction site is being hailed as a landmark in sustainable urban development — and it’s powered by Siemens technology and Volvo Group’s battery-electric trucks and heavy equipment.
The deconstruction project (that’s kind of like a really careful demolition) marks the first full-scale electric deconstruction of its kind, and serves as important proof that with the right partners and the will to do it, urban construction projects like this can be carried out sustainably, today – and all without fossil fuels. It’s all part of Siemens’ €500 million technology campus redevelopment, the deconstruction site in Erlangen, Germany, and marks a pivotal step in advancing sustainable urban transformation and circular construction practices.
In collaboration with the demolition specialists at Metzner Recycling, Volvo CE deployed a fully electric fleet of equipment assets specially chosen to deliver quiet, precision demolition across the 25,000 cubic meter job site.
As well as deconstruction tasks, the electric machines helped sort and process approximately 12,800 tons of construction waste, with 96% recycled into raw materials for future use – supporting the shift towards circular materials management.
VOLVO CE
“At Siemens Real Estate, we are committed to pushing the boundaries of sustainable construction and demolition,” explains Christian Franz, Head of Sustainability at Siemens Real Estate. “This groundbreaking electric deconstruction project boasts an impressive 96% recycling rate and is a testament to our commitment to achieving excellence in sustainability … this project illustrates how partnerships and determination can create a lasting impact and help shape a more sustainable real estate industry.”
In addition the construction equipment was hauled into the site by Volvo Truck’s battery electric semi trucks, enabling emission-free operations from demolition, to crushing, materials processing, and transport.
Electrek’s Take
With a full line of electric wheel loaders, excavators, articulated haul trucks – even drum rollers and off-grid charging solutions to haul around with their electric semi trucks – Volvo is in a great position to take advantage of increasingly restrictive noise and emission regulations across Europe.
It’s too bad they’re suing California to be able to pollute more.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo CE.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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