How high would Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith go in this draft? We asked the NFL
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Jake Trotter
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Moments after Ohio State‘s annual student appreciation scrimmage, a mob of undergrads swarmed Jeremiah Smith as he stretched near the sidelines of the Woody Hayes Athletic Center. Smith stood and signed as many autographs as he could while police struggled to clear space for him.
The buzz around the star Buckeyes wide receiver has only intensified since he made the game-clinching catch against Notre Dame — a play that sealed Ohio State’s first national championship in a decade and made Smith a Buckeye legend in just one season.
Yet while Ohio State fans are still savoring that title, the NFL is already excited about Smith’s future — even though he won’t be draft-eligible for another two years.
Behind the scenes, NFL front office executives, scouts and coaches are calling Smith a “generational” prospect — the product of one of college football’s most dominant true freshman seasons in recent history. In interviews with a dozen of them, ESPN was told the 6-foot-3, 215-pound phenom wouldn’t fall outside the top five of this year’s draft — despite being just 19 years old.
“The fact you’re that big, move that fluidly, then have the body control to adjust your body to make these ridiculous catches — it’s just, check, check, check,” said an NFC personnel executive.
Two wide receiver coaches added that Smith would be their top-rated receiver — ahead of Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter.
“Just because of his upside — it’s through the roof,” said one of those assistants, who also views Smith as a superior pro prospect to any of the record seven receivers taken in last year’s first round, including Pro Bowl rookies Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. “He just changes the game for defenses. You can’t just leave him on an island. When you have a guy like that, it just changes everything. … I haven’t seen any flaws in his game.”
One general manager even claimed that, were he available for this draft, Smith would go No. 1. No wide receiver has been selected No. 1 since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. The same GM said that former Oklahoma running back and 2012 league MVP Adrian Peterson was the only other true freshman he can recall being this ready for the NFL.
“In this particular draft, there’s a lot of good players, a lot of depth, but if you think about just the explosive, dominant playmakers, [Smith] would stand out,” said an AFC scout. “That’s what jumps off the film when you watch him. You place him in this draft and you’re like, ‘Well, I don’t really see anyone on that level.'”
Ryan Day’s in-time reaction when he found out Jeremiah Smith was signing with Ohio State.
This is the visual definition of RELIEF.@nbc4i pic.twitter.com/0b5PFikxpT
— Jerod Smalley (@JerodNBC4) December 20, 2023
OHIO STATE COACH Ryan Day was addressing the media on December signing day in 2023 when he was informed that Smith had officially signed with the Buckeyes. Day breathed a sigh of relief, then feigned fainting from the podium.
A five-star prospect with offers from nearly every powerhouse program, Smith arrived in Columbus last spring with as much hype as any Buckeye recruit in recent memory.
Somehow, he exceeded it.
Even in a stacked Buckeyes offense with running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson as well as receiver Emeka Egbuka — all projected top 50 picks in this draft — Smith stood out.
In his Ohio State debut against Akron, Smith dropped his first target. But he bounced back to score a pair of touchdowns, providing a glimpse of what was to come.
Over the following weeks, Smith dazzled with an array of one-handed grabs and explosive scoring plays. By early November, he had broken Ohio State’s true freshman receiving records set by Pro Football Hall of Famer Cris Carter in 1984.
Smith wound up leading the Buckeyes with 1,315 receiving yards and 15 touchdown receptions. He exploded in the College Football Playoff against some of the nation’s top defenses. Despite being held to only one reception in the semifinal victory over Texas, Smith still finished with 381 receiving yards and five touchdowns over Ohio State’s four playoff victories.
“He clearly proved it down the stretch how good he is,” said an AFC personnel executive. “I was just so impressed with the combination of size, quickness for his size, route-running feel and how he wins the one-on-ones.”
That culminated with his biggest one-on-one grab of the year in the national title game.
Following a furious second-half rally, Notre Dame was on the verge of getting the ball back in the final two minutes with a chance to tie. Facing third-and-11, the Buckeyes put the game in Smith’s hands. Quarterback Will Howard heaved the ball down the sidelines to Smith, who beat Notre Dame cornerback Christian Gray to haul in the 56-yard reception. Four plays later, the Buckeyes kicked the 33-yard field goal to seal their 34-23 victory.
“That just showed how much they believe in him … and how freaking good he is to make that play when the game is on the line,” an NFL receivers coach said. “I’m just so impressed with how poised and mature he is at his age, with all the hype and expectations around him.”
Even after producing such an iconic catch, Smith said he remains hungry.
“Just because I made that one play … can’t get big-headed,” he said last week. “I always feel like there’s room for improvement. Never feel like you just got it. That’s one thing a lot of people mess up on, feel like, ‘Oh had one good year, OK, I’m relaxed.’ That’s not in me. I’m going to continue to do it for years and years to come.”
That’s a terrifying proposition for the rest of college football. It’s also the biggest reason why Ohio State could defend its title despite losing 14 starters from last season’s championship team.
Smith could have taken his talents elsewhere. Multiple agents speculated that Smith could have commanded at least $5 million in NIL money from other schools had he entered the transfer portal. Instead, he has been focused on becoming a more vocal leader for the retooling Buckeyes.
“A lot of it is learning how to become a good teammate, learning how to encourage other guys around them to play winning football, which he does,” said Day, who praised Smith’s humility under such a bright spotlight. “You’re starting to see him come out of his shell a bunch. … He’s still just a young man trying to find his way and he is. When you look at him, you don’t think it, but he is.”
This spring, the Buckeyes have experimented with utilizing Smith out of the slot to add ways to get him the ball. They’re also expanding his route tree, which figures to enhance his NFL readiness.
“You’re chasing that 1%. … That’s what he’s chasing,” said Ohio State offensive coordinator and receivers coach Brian Hartline, who has challenged Smith to improve his football IQ, anticipating how defenses guard him instead of reacting to it. “He has some of the highest goals and he’s not [there] right now. He’s doing a good job being hard on himself.”
OHIO STATE’S PROWESS in producing NFL wide receivers in recent years is unmatched.
In Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr., the Buckeyes have produced four first-round picks at receiver in the past three drafts alone. Egbuka could keep that streak going if he goes in the first round.
One AFC personnel executive was quickly sold on Smith’s NFL future while watching him dominate in a preseason practice, before he had even played in a game.
“Nobody could touch him,” he said. “Couldn’t even get a hand on him.”
Now, he sees shades of A.J. Green and Julio Jones in Smith’s game.
Those two went in the top six of the 2011 draft. Green went on to make seven Pro Bowls with the Cincinnati Bengals. Jones was a five-time All-Pro for the Atlanta Falcons before retiring this month.
“He’s fluid like A.J., but explosive and a dog at the catch point like Julio,” the AFC executive said.
Others in the NFL compared Smith’s style and pro potential to Jones, who boasted a similar frame.
Jones, who also starred as a true freshman for Alabama, became a national champion. The Falcons famously traded up in the draft to get him.
One NFL receivers coach predicted Smith will become “the most sought-after receiver prospect since Jones.”
New Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has marveled at Smith’s “presence” on the field this spring.
The former Detroit Lions head coach, who won two Super Bowls as New England’s defensive coordinator, including Super Bowl LI over Jones and the Falcons (Tom Brady’s 28-3 comeback) said if he were game-planning against Smith, he would double him on every snap.
“No way you’d leave him one-on-one,” Patricia said.
Smith is sure to face even more attention from opposing defenses as a sophomore. With a new quarterback and several untested playmakers around him, Smith will shoulder a bigger load for the offense, especially early in the season.
Like Smith, Peterson was also a freshman wonder. He nearly rushed for 2,000 yards, finished second in the Heisman Trophy and propelled the Sooners to the national title game. But over the next two seasons, he battled injuries and loaded defensive boxes. While Peterson still went No. 7 to the Minnesota Vikings in 2007, some scouts caution that Smith’s path could follow a similar arc under the microscope. Scouts acknowledged that Smith’s game could get nitpicked the closer he gets to the 2027 draft. One specifically noted that he wants to see if Smith can run more precise routes instead of relying on his physical dominance.
“[Marvin Harrison Jr.’s] routes were precise, like he’d already been in the league,” the scout said. “He had that constant play speed in and out of his breaks and knew how to set guys up over and over again. [Smith], you see good routes for sure, but he still feels like what he is — a younger guy who is still growing into his game and hasn’t needed to always be precise because he just wins because he’s better than you.”
Another NFC personnel executive added, “Three touchdown games against teams that won’t be in the [playoff] aren’t going to get much of your attention [anymore].”
That’s the standard Smith has already set for himself. And the NFL can’t wait to see what comes next.
“We’ll see how Jeremiah’s story goes,” an AFC scout said. “But everyone [in the league] is talking about him. You hear all the buzz: ‘Who is this dude? How can we get this guy on our team?’
“That’s the track he’s on right now.”
Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor.
Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.
Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to-date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 passing and 200 rushing yards per game this season. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make a run in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.
Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: Tennessee
Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.
Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: USC
Work to do: Nebraska, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.
Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated, and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge at a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …
Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.
Group of 5
Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: South Florida
Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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David Hale
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — After a week of chaos surrounding the North Carolina football program and Bill Belichick’s future in Chapel Hill, the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach denied rumors he was looking for an exit and doubled down on his belief that his “process” eventually will lead to a winning team.
“Reports about my looking for a buyout or trying to leave here is categorically false,” Belichick said. “There’s zero truth to any of that. I’m glad I’m here. We’re working toward our goals. We believe very much in the process. We need to just keep working and grinding away, and that’s exactly what we’re doing.”
Belichick said there were “things we could’ve done better” but widely praised embattled general manager Michael Lombardi as having “done a good job,” reiterated that the timing of his hire put North Carolina behind other schools in terms of talent acquisition, and said that, regardless of the on-field results for the 2-3 team, UNC has made major strides in its performance.
“It’s a learning curve,” Belichick said. “We’re all in it together. But we’re making a lot of progress, and the process will eventually produce the results we want like they have everywhere else I’ve been.”
Belichick’s Monday media session was attended by university chancellor Lee Roberts, athletics director Bubba Cunningham and a host of other high-level administrators, as well as Lombardi — something unique for a midseason news conference.
Cunningham said the school continues to support Belichick’s vision for the program, but he admitted the disappointing results have led to a lot of frustration.
“There’s a steeper learning curve than we all anticipated,” Cunningham said. “The gap between expectations and performance is more severe than what we expected, and that’s what creates a lot of attention.”
Two weeks ago, Lombardi sent a letter to donors preaching patience during a “rebuilding” process, a terminology several players pushed back on.
“It’s Coach Belichick’s first year, so I’m not surprised he’s wanting to rebuild it,” Boise State transfer Andrew Simpson said. “Wanting to grow and be better, that’s what I focus on. Just because it’s a rebuild doesn’t mean we can’t win games now. We have seven more games, and that’s what I focus on.”
Belichick downplayed any concerns about the on-field results, saying he doesn’t “have expectations other than achieving what we want to achieve every day” and reiterating he has the support of the administration.
Reports of internal strife in the locker room were also dismissed by Belichick and multiple players made available to the media Monday, with Belichick saying Lombardi, in particular, maintains close conversations with players.
Among other controversies last week, Belichick refused to comment on the suspension of assistant coach Armond Hawkins for recruiting violations, but he said a planned Hulu documentary, which had reportedly been scrapped amid the team’s bad start, would still happen in some form.
“It’s still a work in progress, and we’re working through a few logistics,” Belichick said. “But there will be something.”
North Carolina is coming off its second open date in the past three weeks and heads to Cal for the team’s first ACC road trip Friday.
Belichick said he expects an improved performance with the additional week of practice time, despite a woeful defeat against Clemson following the last open date.
“Everybody’s most interested in the final score, and I’m at the top of that list,” he said. “But it’s a process. You build a culture, you build a program, and eventually the results will come. When will that happen? Hopefully as soon as possible. We’re working hard to get there.”
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