Tesla (TSLA) has to replace computer in ~4 million cars or compensate their owners
Tesla (TSLA) has to replace the ‘self-driving’ computer inside about 4 million vehicles or likely compensate the owners of those vehicles.
The liability could be more significant than the largest automotive recall in terms of cost.
In 2016, Tesla claimed that all its vehicles in production going forward have “all the hardware necessary for full self-driving capability.”
Tesla’s use of the term “full self-driving” has changed over the years, but at the time and for years later, CEO Elon Musk claimed that it would mean Tesla owners would eventually receive a software update that would turn their vehicles into “robotaxis” capable of level-4-5 self-driving, which means unsupervised autonomous driving even with no one in the cars.
Almost 10 years later, this has yet to happen and won’t happen soon in most of the cars Tesla has delivered over the last decade.
Tesla’s claim that its vehicles have “all the hardware necessary for full self-driving capability” quickly proved untrue.
At the time, Tesla was producing its vehicles with cameras, a front-facing radar, ultrasonic sensors, and a “self-driving” computer, called HW2.5.”
Tesla quickly started building new vehicles with a new “HW3 self-driving computer” and admitted that its HW2.5 computer was not powerful enough to achieve self-driving capability.
The automaker started retrofitting existing HW2.5 vehicles for free with new HW3 computers owned by drivers who bought Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) software package.
In 2023-2024, Tesla transitioned to another new and more powerful “self-driving computer”, HW4, in its new vehicles.
Unlike when it transitioned from HW2.5 to HW3, this time, Tesla claimed it would still be able to deliver its robotaxi self-driving capability to HW3 vehicles.
Musk even claimed that FSD will get better on HW3 first, as Tesla’s “focus needs to be on getting FSD on HW3 working super well and provided internationally”. He went as far as claiming that FSD performance on “HW4 will lag at least 6 months behind HW3” because of this.
That didn’t last long.
In 2024, we started to report that Tesla was reaching the limits of the HW3 computer, while the capabilities were nowhere near the promised unsupervised robotaxi-level autonomous driving.
It took another 6 months, but in January 2025, Musk finally admitted that HW3 computers are not powerful enough to achieve unsupervised self-driving capability.
There are about 4 million Tesla vehicles in the world with HW3 computers:
| Hardware Version | Production Timeframe | Estimated Vehicles Produced (Global) | Rollout & Overlap |
|---|---|---|---|
| HW3 (FSD Computer) | Apr 2019 – Late 2023 (phased out) | ~4 million (approx.) | Standard in all models from 2019–2022; remained in some cars through 2023. Overlap with HW4 during 2023. |
| HW4 (FSD Computer) | Jan 2023 – Present (ongoing) | ~2.5–3 million (approx.) | Introduced Jan 2023 (S/X first); became standard across all models by early 2024. Overlapped with HW3 in 2023. |
When admitting the computer won’t support the promised self-driving capabilities, Musk said that Tesla would retrofit the computers of all HW3 car owners who purchased the FSD package:
I mean, I think the honest answer is that we’re going to have to upgrade people’s Hardware 3 computer for those that have bought full self-driving, and that is the honest answer and that’s going to be painful and difficult but we’ll get it done. Now I’m kind of glad that not that many people bought the FSD package.
Musk says that replacing all the computers will be “painful,” and he is “glad” that “not that many people bought the FSD package.”
Tesla never disclosed the official take rate of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package, but it did disclose having 400,000 FSD beta testers in North America by the end of 2022.
The take-rate is believed to be much lower globally due to the limited value in other markets where Tesla offers fewer ADAS features under the FSD package.
Globally, it’s safe to assume at least another 100,000 HW3 vehicles with the FSD package, which should bring Tesla’s retrofit requirement to over half a million units.
Musk is right to say that replacing the computers in over 500,000 Tesla vehicles will be “painful.” It will strain its service capacity tremendously, on top of the cost, which will easily surpass $500 million.
But that might just be the beginning.
Tesla promised self-driving hardware in all cars
Musk and Tesla not only made promises to those who bought the FSD package, but they promised anyone buying Tesla vehicles since 2016 had “all the hardware necessary for full self-driving capability.”
As we previously reported, Tesla removed the claim from its website last year and changed the language around the FSD package, which was likely aimed at weakening claims for Tesla HW4 owners, but the case for HW3 owners is more straightforward.
In 2019, Musk claimed “Tesla vehicles are now appreciating assets” because of their future self-driving capabilities. Of course, this proved to be completely wrong.
But there’s one thing that’s true about the value of Tesla vehicles: they would be worth more if they had computers capable of supporting self-driving, which Musk just admitted is not the case. That’s regardless of whether they bought the FSD package or not.
Therefore, there’s a strong argument to be made that Tesla needs to replace computers in all HW3 cars or at the very least, compensate the owners for falsely claiming that the vehicles had “all the hardware necessary for self-driving.”
In fact, there’s already legal precedent for this.
In 2022, a judge ordered Tesla to upgrade a customer’s self-driving computer for free so that they can subscribe to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program without any additional cost. It created a precedent for Tesla owners who don’t purchase the FSD package.
Based on Tesla’s statement that “all cars produced since 2016 have the hardware necessary for full self-driving capability,” the owners of those vehicles need to have all the hardware necessary to have access to these features.
It’s a clear case of false advertising. Tesla says, “Your car has all the hardware necessary for full self-driving,” and when an owner wants to try the features, Tesla tells them, “You have to pay $1,000 for us to upgrade your hardware.” Something doesn’t add up.
Electrek’s Take
I would be surprised if Tesla does as Musk claimed and replaces HW3 computers in any car, let alone over half a million cars, or as it should be, about 4 million vehicles.
It’s too complicated and costly. It would add hundreds of thousands of work hours to Tesla’s already ultra-busy service operations, and it may not even work.
After being wrong about HW2.5 and HW3, the level of confidence in Tesla achieving unsupervised self-driving on HW4 vehicles is not really high, despite HW4 vehicles not only having more powerful computers but also better cameras.
I don’t think it’s realistic to believe that Tesla will enable level 4 or 5 self-driving capabilities in what are, in some cases, almost 10-year-old vehicles through a computer retrofit.
My 2018 Model 3 Performance was originally a HW 2.5 vehicle, and I purchased the FSD package. Tesla upgraded my computer to HW3 in 2019. We are now in 2025, and Musk finally admitted that the computer I bought 6 years ago won’t enable the self-driving capacity I was promised.
My car will never be self-driving, and I don’t believe Tesla will ever offer a free computer upgrade.
I think Tesla will have to compensate every Tesla HW3 owner worldwide. That would mean about 4 million vehicles and a liability of several billion dollars.
At first, instead of the computer retrofit, I think Tesla will use this as an opportunity to encourage people to upgrade, like it did with the “FSD transfer windows.” Maybe it will offer buybacks at a higher rate to compensate owners.
As for those who didn’t buy the FSD package, I don’t think Tesla will offer anything based on Musk’s messaging. It will have to go through the courts.
There are already several lawsuits filed against Tesla over its self-driving claims, and that was before Musk’s admission that HW3 won’t support unsupervised self-driving. I believe that those lawsuits will ramp up this year.
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Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
Read more: FREYR kills plans to build a $2.6 billion battery factory in Georgia
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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Environment
Podcast: how Elon killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surge, and Chinese EVs keep killing it
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss how Elon Musk killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surging, how Chinese EVs keep killing it, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET):
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