Connect with us

Published

on

With the Montreal Canadiens on the precipice of punching their playoff ticket Monday night, the Chicago Blackhawks shocked the world by pulling off the shootout victory. So the Columbus Blue Jackets remain in the hunt for the final Eastern Conference wild card.

In the West, there was no movement in the three-way wild-card race between the Minnesota Wild, St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames on Monday, but all three play on Tuesday.

Here’s everything you need to know heading into what could be a highly consequential evening:

New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins
7 p.m. (ESPN+)

This is the Devils’ penultimate tune-up before beginning their first-round series against the Carolina Hurricanes. On the other side, the Bruins enter this matchup in the fourth slot for the draft lottery order; they cannot catch the Predators at No. 3, but they are one point ahead of the Kraken and Flyers, and two ahead of the Sabres.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres
7 p.m. (ESPN+)

The Maple Leafs have a four-point lead atop the Atlantic Division, but with two games left for the team chasing them (the Lightning), nothing is yet resolved. However, with a win or an overtime/shootout loss against their cross-border neighbors, the division title is theirs. Buffalo has closed the season out strong, but past foibles have the Sabres in the No. 7 spot in the draft lottery heading into Tuesday night; they are in a jumble of teams from No. 4-9, all between 75 and 78 points.

Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators
7 p.m. (ESPN+)

The Blackhawks’ win on Monday did not alter their final standings result, as they are locked in to the No. 2 spot in the draft lottery. The Senators are locked in to another part of the standings, the first Eastern Conference wild card, with a matchup against the Atlantic Division champs (either the Maple Leafs or Lightning) on the docket in Round 1.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers
7 p.m. (ESPN+)

Montreal’s loss in the shootout on Monday kept the Blue Jackets’ playoff door open just a crack. Columbus needs regulation wins in both of its final two games (it hosts the Islanders on Thursday), PLUS the Canadiens to lose in regulation against the Hurricanes on Wednesday to earn the second wild card. The Flyers are part of the above-mentioned jumble of teams between 75 and 78 points; they begin the evening in the No. 6 spot with 76.

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

The most likely postseason scenario in the Atlantic includes these in-state rivals squaring off in Round 1. The Panthers cannot catch the Lightning (they can tie in standings points, but Tampa Bay is well ahead in regulation wins); the Lightning can catch the Maple Leafs, but need to win their final two and have the Leafs lose their final two in regulation. In other words, this game might involve some “message sending” ahead of their upcoming showdown rather than any more standings shuffling concerns.

Washington Capitals at New York Islanders
7:30 p.m. (ESPN+)

Locked in as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals may not be, ahem, as honed in as we’ve seen them in recent weeks as they were chasing that clinched position (and Alex Ovechkin was still chasing Wayne Gretzky’s record). On the Islanders side, they sit 10th in the draft lottery order with 82 points, four behind the Ducks (78) with two games to go, and one point ahead of the Rangers and Red Wings at 83.

Utah Hockey Club at St. Louis Blues
8 p.m. (ESPN+)

With a win of any variety and a Flames loss of any variety, the Blues clinch a playoff spot; with any other set of results, it’s a little more complicated. In the franchise’s first season, the Hockey Club remained in the playoff mix quite long, but they’ll be in the draft lottery this May. Currently 14th, they can fall behind the Canucks for 15th if they win tonight.

Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild
8 p.m. (ESPN+)

A win of any variety for the Wild clinches their playoff spot (regardless of what the Flames do); the Wild can also clinch if they lose in OT/shootout and the Flames lose in any fashion. The Ducks are at the tail end of the 75- to 78-point teams in the draft lotto order, sitting ninth as play begins Tuesday.

Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames
9 p.m. (ESPN+)

Every game is a must-win for the Flames, and regulation wins will be critical; they are currently two points behind the Blues and one RW, so if the Blues win in regulation Tuesday and the Flames win in OT/shootout, that eliminates the Flames (they could tie in standings points with a win Thursday, but couldn’t catch up in RW). If the Blues lose in any fashion, that leaves the door open for Calgary. The Knights are locked in as the No. 1 seed in the Pacific — and will play whichever team winds up in the first wild-card spot when the playoffs begin. If they don’t want to see Calgary in a series this spring, they can end that possibility by beating them on Tuesday night.

Los Angeles Kings at Seattle Kraken
10:30 p.m. (ESPN)

The Kings’ win over the Oilers on Monday clinched home-ice advantage for them in the first-round series against those very same Oilers. Seattle is our final team in that 75- to 78-point mashup, beginning play on Tuesday night as the No. 5 team in the draft lotto order with 76 points and 28 regulation wins.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Florida Panthers
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers


Tuesday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres, 7 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Washington Capitals at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
Utah Hockey Club at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, 9 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Seattle Kraken, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)


Monday’s scoreboard

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Montreal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Detroit Red Wings 6, Dallas Stars 4
New York Rangers 5, Florida Panthers 3
Utah Hockey Club 7, Nashville Predators 3
Los Angeles Kings 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Vancouver Canucks 2, San Jose Sharks 1 (OT)


Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 106.6
Next game: @ BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 99.2
Next game: @ TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 96.4
Next game: vs. CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 90.1
Next game: vs. CAR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 94.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 85.1
Next game: @ NJ (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 78.9
Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 75.9
Next game: vs. NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E


Metro Division

Points: 109
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 111.7
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 99
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 101.5
Next game: @ MTL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 91.2
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 5.6%
Tragic number: 1

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 84.0
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 84.1
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 79.0
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 77.9
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E


Central Division

Points: 114
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 115.4
Next game: vs. ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 106
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 107.3
Next game: @ NSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 0
Points pace: 102
Next game: N/A
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 96.2
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 95.2
Next game: vs. UTA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 90.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 90.1
Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 66.8
Next game: vs. DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 59.7
Next game: @ OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E


Pacific Division

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 45
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 109.7
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 105.6
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 99
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 100.2
Next game: @ SJ (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 94.3
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 11.1%
Tragic number: 3

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: vs. VGK (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 80.0
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 76.9
Next game: vs. LA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 52.6
Next game: vs. EDM (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Note: A “p” means that the team has clinched the Presidents’ Trophy as the top team in the regular season. A “z” means that the team has clinched the top record in the conference. A “y” means that the team has clinched the division title. An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.


Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. More details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 30

Continue Reading

Sports

Driven since Week 1 loss, red-hot Tide rout Vols

Published

on

By

Driven since Week 1 loss, red-hot Tide rout Vols

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — After Alabama beat Tennessee 37-20 on Saturday night, coach Kalen DeBoer wanted to make sure his players enjoyed their postgame cigars to celebrate another win in their storied rivalry.

There is still a long road to go, but what Alabama has done to get to this point is worthy of a celebratory cigar, too.

After a Week 1 loss to Florida State, Alabama has stacked one victory after the next, winning six straight, finding an edge and different ways to motivate themselves. Proving they were better than that team that opened in Tallahassee is certainly one of those reasons. But there were others — proving they could win on the road and doing so against Georgia. Beating Vanderbilt after losing to them last year. And Saturday night, regaining the edge against Tennessee after losing to them last year, too.

The result? Alabama is the first team in SEC history to win four straight games, all against ranked teams, with no bye week mixed in, according to ESPN Research.

“They’ve got an edge to them still, and haven’t lost it since the beginning there after week one. That’s hard to do,” DeBoer said afterward. “It’s really hard to do. As you go through the weeks, there’s been enough reasons, different motivation factors, to get up for games, and our guys, each and every week, find a way to do it. So we’ve got to keep the pedal down.”

The key turning point happened just before halftime. Tennessee was on the Alabama 1-yard line with eight seconds left in the quarter, down 16-7. Joey Aguilar dropped back and threw right toward tight end Miles Kitselman, who appeared to be open in the end zone. But Zabien Brown jumped the route and intercepted the pass, returning it 99 yards for the score to give Alabama a 23-7 lead.

“The ball fell right in my hand,” Brown said. “I [saw] open field and I started running. I’m like, if I get tackled, the time [will] go out. So I gotta find a way to get in that [end] zone.”

It was a triumphant day for the defense, which had struggled at times to limit explosive plays throughout the course of the season and put their stamp on a game. Alabama also had a safety in the first half and made life uncomfortable for Aguilar all night. Tennessee came into the game as the highest scoring offense in the SEC, but Alabama held them to a season-low 20 points and 410 total yards. The Vols only scored on two of their five red zone chances.

Alabama fans lit their cigars in stadium well before the game ended. It was Alabama’s 11th straight home win in the series, and also ran DeBoer’s record at home to 11-0 since his arrival last year. He has also won six straight since switching to a black hoodie on the sideline, something that has become a major talking point among the Alabama fan base.

When asked if he was giving the fans what they wanted by continuing to wear the black hoodie, DeBoer said, “This isn’t new. I’ve done this for years. But we’re going to ride the momentum. I told the guys not to get any [cigar] ashes on it.”

The Crimson Tide sit at 4-0 in SEC play and are one of two unbeaten teams left in the league, along with Texas A&M. Up next is a trip to South Carolina before an open date.

“I think we understand the week of preparation gets you mentally in the right space to where you’re confident going out on the football field,” DeBoer said. “When you’re confident, you got a little more energy. And that’s really what I see with our guys, and that fires me up.”

Continue Reading

Sports

ND’s Freeman hails Love-Price duo: ‘So talented’

Published

on

By

ND's Freeman hails Love-Price duo: 'So talented'

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — When the clock expired on a 34-24 win over USC, Notre Dame took a dig at its West Coast rival by playing a modified version of the song “California Love,” which began instead with the lyric “Jeremiyah Love.”

The serenade for USC players and coaches as they left a rain-soaked Notre Dame Stadium certainly didn’t sound good, but it wasn’t as bad as facing the actual Jeremiyah Love and his sidekick, Jadarian Price. Love rolled up 228 rushing yards, the most by a Notre Dame player in the 512-game history of Notre Dame Stadium, and the most by a Notre Dame player against USC in the storied rivalry. Price added 87 rushing yards and a 100-yard kick return touchdown that put the 13th-ranked Irish ahead for good.

Notre Dame kept its College Football Playoff hopes alive with its third straight win against USC in the final scheduled game of the historic intersectional rivalry.

“It’s not very common in college, not very common in life, to see two guys that are so talented, that deserve the ball in their hands every snap, put the team above themselves, and then make the most of their opportunities,” coach Marcus Freeman said. “They’re not pouting, they’re each other’s biggest supporter.

“That might be one of the hardest things we ask our plays to do — put team before me. Everything outside of here says, ‘No, you come before team.'”

After getting only 20 touches combined in a season-opening loss at Miami, Love and Price knew they would be featured against No. 20 USC, as the forecast called for heavy rain. Love raced 63 yards on his first carry and finished Notre Dame’s opening drive with a 12-yard touchdown run. On the team’s next scoring drive, Price had 56 rushing yards and a 16-yard touchdown.

“We believe that every game goes through the running back room,” Love said, “so if we’re on our stuff, the offense is going to be on their stuff. Just be great backs, be great teammates.”

Price’s biggest play came on special teams, after USC had taken a 24-21 lead with 4:32 left in the third quarter. He initially erred by going outside his blocker on the kick return, but eventually found room and sliced through USC’s defense.

He became the first Notre Dame player with multiple 100-yard kick returns, as he had one Sept. 20 late in the first half against Purdue. Price also had a 99-yard scoring return against USC in 2023 on the same field.

“I am sitting there like, ‘God, I get you, now,'” Freeman said, smiling. “Notre Dame, there is something [here]. At that moment I’m like, ‘What is going on?’ … That was a huge play for this team.”

A preseason All-America selection, Love only received 14 total touches — 10 rushes and four receptions — in Notre Dame’s season-opening loss at Miami, while Price had just six carries against the Hurricanes. But both backs have seen their workload increase as Notre Dame shapes its offensive identity around them.

“It’s really dangerous,” Price said. “We start with the run game.”

USC answered for much of the night with its passing attack, which piled up 328 yards. But after converting a third-and-9 with a 42-yard pass from Jayden Maiava to Makai Lemon into Notre Dame territory, USC called for a wide receiver option pass, and Lemon lost the ball, recovered by Irish linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa.

“Stupid call,” coach Lincoln Riley said. “It was a stupid call.”

Notre Dame and USC met for the 96th time Saturday night, but the future of the series is in doubt despite a desire on both sides to continue. The schools have differing views on the length of a future scheduling agreement and where games are played.

The rivalry hasn’t lost its zest, as players and coaches barked at each other after the game, and several USC players were whisked away as the Irish gathered to sing their alma mater.

“This is the biggest intersectional rivalry in college football,” Notre Dame linebacker Jaylen Sneed said. “It just means more to us. … It should still be played. It’s a game that I circle every year on my calendar, and I think everybody else does.”

Continue Reading

Sports

Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 8: Big move for Bama

Published

on

By

Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 8: Big move for Bama

On Sunday, the 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will do something they’ve never done before — they’re going to meet for two days at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas, for what they’re calling a “level set” meeting. It’s an early opportunity for the entire group to get together and discuss what they’ve seen so far without releasing a ranking.

And they saw a lot in Week 8.

Undefeated Miami went down in a stunning loss at home to Louisville. Undefeated Ole Miss went down. Undefeated Texas Tech went down. Undefeated Memphis went down. And Alabama made a case to move up.

There was a lot of movement in Week 8, and the committee members will do their own mock ranking to help the new members better understand the process. They will use the results to-date, but the first of six real rankings won’t be revealed until Nov. 4. The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 8’s top 12 projection is a snapshot of who has the early edge if the ranking were released today.

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes’ grip on the top spot got tighter after Miami’s home loss to Louisville on Friday night, but the Hoosiers are on their heels. Ohio State beat Wisconsin with ease, earning its third Big Ten road win. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiencies — and No. 2 in total efficiency — according to ESPN Analytics. They were also No. 2 in Game Control and No. 3 in Strength of Record — all metrics that indicate the total package the committee is looking for with eye test and résumé.

Why they could be lower: There would be some committee members who consider Indiana for the top spot, as the undefeated Hoosiers’ road win at Oregon remains the best in the country. IU is on par with Ohio State statistically, ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and No. 3 in Game Control. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas, though, would loom large in the room as a separating factor.

Need to know: Ohio State and Indiana are on track to face each other in the Big Ten title game. If that comes to fruition and they are both undefeated, the loser of the game can still earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye because those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions. ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games and the best chance in the league to reach the Big Ten championship.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.


Why they could be here: Indiana moved up one spot after beating Michigan State and as a result of Miami losing to Louisville, but the Hoosiers are here because they won at Oregon on Oct. 11. The double-digit win snapped the Ducks’ 18-game home winning streak and legitimized IU’s playoff hopes. More than that, it put the Hoosiers in contention for a top-four seed and first-round bye. They continued to build upon that Saturday against the Spartans, earning their fourth straight Big Ten win, including two on the road. One of the biggest differences between IU and Ohio State in the eyes of the committee would be the Buckeyes’ nonconference win against Texas, which trumps IU’s wins against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.

Why they could be higher: Indiana’s win against Oregon is still better than Ohio State’s best win, and the Hoosiers entered Week 8 ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. That means the average top 25 opponent would have just an 11% chance to achieve the same 7-0 record against the same opponents. The committee also considers common opponents, and while Ohio State beat Illinois with ease 34-16, Indiana beat the Illini in historic fashion 63-10.

Need to know: Indiana has the second-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game behind Ohio State, according to ESPN Analytics. The Hoosiers have at least a 70% chance to win each of their remaining games.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Penn State. It’s certainly not the obstacle it appeared to be a month ago, but it’s still the most difficult road trip remaining and a tougher environment to win in than Maryland.


Why they could be here: With the win against Tennessee, Alabama has beaten four straight ranked opponents, including Georgia and Missouri on the road. This has been one of the most grueling stretches any team in the country has played, and Alabama hasn’t just won — it’s gotten better each week. Since the inception of the CFP, the committee has never shied away from ranking a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team if it has played better against better competition, and the Tide has done that.

Why they could be lower: The loss to Florida State did happen, and the Noles have since spiraled into irrelevance in the national picture and the ACC race. Texas A&M has a better nonconference win at Notre Dame, while Alabama beat a beleaguered 2-5 Wisconsin team at home on Sept. 13.

Need to know: Alabama entered Week 8 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric, well above No. 21-ranked Texas A&M.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. Alabama won’t face a quarterback better than John Mateer in the second half of the season. Rival Auburn continues to struggle, and LSU still seems incapable of putting together a complete performance.


Why they could be here: Texas A&M is still undefeated — the only one left in the SEC — but it hasn’t racked up the statement wins like Alabama. And Saturday’s 45-42 victory against a 2-5 Arkansas team didn’t come easily. The Aggies allowed 527 total yards, including 268 on the ground. Still, the Aggies earned their second road triumph of the season, a double-digit victory against a pesky Arkansas team playing inspired football under interim coach Bobby Petrino. Texas A&M entered Week 8 No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and the 41-40 win at Notre Dame is a big reason why. It’s the Aggies’ lone win against a ranked opponent.

Why they could be higher: If the committee keeps the Aggies ahead of Bama, it will be because of the Tide’s season-opening loss to FSU and Texas A&M’s win at Notre Dame.

Need to know: Texas A&M and Alabama don’t play each other during the regular season but could meet in the SEC title game — if the Aggies survive a more difficult back half of the season. Texas A&M still has three tough road games against LSU, Missouri and Texas.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. A Friday night road trip against a ranked rival is a tricky way to end the season.


Why they could be here: The Bulldogs have two wins over what should be CFP Top 25 opponents in Tennessee and Ole Miss, and some committee members will consider the three-point loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 a better loss than Miami’s home loss to Louisville after a bye. The head-to-head result will keep Georgia behind the Tide, though, as long as their records remain the same. Saturday’s win against previously undefeated Ole Miss is the Bulldogs’ best victories of the season and one of the better ones in the country.

Why they could be lower: Miami’s loss to Louisville wasn’t a bad loss, but it was a poor performance. There could still be some committee members who believe Miami’s overall résumé is better than Georgia’s with nonconference wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida. Georgia’s nonconference triumphs are over Marshall and Austin Peay. And prior to the Louisville game, Miami was playing better defense more consistently than the Bulldogs.

Need to know: With Georgia Tech’s win at Duke on Saturday, Georgia’s in-state rival is on track to reach the ACC championship game. If Georgia can capture the regular-season finale between the two schools, it could wind up being one of its best wins in the back half of the season.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns will likely be the last ranked SEC opponent the Bulldogs face.


Why they could be here: The loss to Louisville will be less of a problem in the committee meeting room than how Miami lost. The four turnovers from Carson Beck — plus converting just five of 12 third downs — are the kinds of stats former coaches and players in the room will bring up. There will also be a respect, though, for one-loss Louisville, which would probably be a CFP Top 25 team. Miami’s overall schedule will still carry a lot of weight with the committee, as wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida are a significantly tougher nonconference lineup than most other contenders.

Why they could be lower: Ole Miss had a better loss in Week 8 on the road to Georgia than the Canes’ home defeat by Louisville.

Need to know: The Canes’ chances of earning a first-round bye as a top four seed took a hit with their loss to Louisville. In the straight seeding format, the selection committee’s top four teams will earn the top-four seeds — they are no longer reserved for conference champions. Miami could finish as a one-loss ACC champ, but still finish outside of the top four. The selection committee compares common opponents, and will consider that Miami beat Florida State and Alabama did not, but the Tide could win the overall debate with a stronger résumé. The committee also considers how teams lost, and the Canes made too many mistakes on both sides of the ball against Louisville, but the Cardinals are a talented team that could be in the CFP Top 25 on Selection Day.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami has left its state. The Mustangs beat Clemson 35-24 on Saturday, but the Tigers were without starting quarterback Cade Klubnik.


Why they could be here: A close road loss to a CFP contender isn’t going to knock the Rebels out of the field, but their overall résumé could use a boost after LSU’s loss to Vanderbilt. It helped a bit that Tulane found a way to escape Army on Saturday — though the Green Wave needed two touchdown passes in the final two minutes to do it. Tulane remains in contention for a playoff bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, and Ole Miss beat the Green Wave soundly, 45-10 on Sept. 20. The selection committee pays close attention to how these games are won and lost, and will have seen Ole Miss struggle with Washington State and its inability to make some critical defensive stops against Georgia.

Why they could be lower: Statistically, Oregon has been the more complete team, entering Week 8 No. 5 in total efficiency while Ole Miss was No. 30. The Ducks were No. 4 in the country in points margin, and No. 13 in scoring defense. Ole Miss has also been one of the nation’s most penalized teams, ranking No. 118 with 7.83 per game and No. 126 with 74 penalty yards per game, while Oregon is in the top 10 in both categories for fewest penalties and yards. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss also ranked No. 63 in schedule strength while Oregon was No. 25.

Need to know: The Rebels are under some pressure to beat Oklahoma in Week 9 because a 10-2 record might not be good enough for an at-large bid. Ole Miss would have lost two of its top three chances to impress the committee against ranked opponents — the one they got was against LSU.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. The Sooners rebounded from their loss to Texas with a win on Saturday at South Carolina. It will be the second straight road trip for Ole Miss.


Why they could be here: The Ducks returned to their dominating form, albeit against a now 3-4 Rutgers team. Oregon has flourished against lesser competition all season, leaving no doubt it’s the better team and padding its stats along the way against teams like 1-6 Oklahoma State and FCS Montana State. They needed double overtime to win at Penn State, though, and lost at home by double digits to Indiana. Quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times against the Hoosiers. Their best wins so far have come on the road against Northwestern and Penn State, but selection committee members also consider the extraordinary amount of travel involved, including the nearly 3,000 miles in Week 8 to Piscataway, N.J.

Why they could be higher: Oregon has simply played better more consistently than Ole Miss, and the Ducks entered Week 8 ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Game Control metric.

Need to know: If Oregon runs the table and finishes as a one-loss team without a conference title, this No. 8 spot would still give the Ducks a first-round home game as the higher seed, pitted against No. 9 Oklahoma in this case.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. Road trips to Iowa and Washington aren’t gimmes — and Minnesota should be bowl bound — but the Trojans will likely be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face.


Why they could be here: The Sooners earned their first true road win of the season on Saturday at South Carolina. The win against Michigan continues to be a valuable nonconference result, but the committee would probably be more impressed with Miami’s overall résumé. The Sooners’ narrow home win against Auburn has taken a hit over the past few weeks. Oklahoma’s win against South Carolina was further proof that quarterback John Mateer remains one of the most talented players in the country, as he added a 40-yard punt to his résumé in his second game back from hand surgery.

Why they could be lower: Georgia Tech is undefeated and that would be the biggest reason the committee would flip the two. Oklahoma’s defense has been significantly better against a tougher schedule.

Need to know: The Sooners end the season with five straight ranked opponents, including back-to-back November trips to Tennessee and Alabama.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will have a much-needed bye week before traveling to Alabama.


Why they could be here: With LSU’s loss and Georgia Tech’s win at Duke, the door opened for the Yellow Jackets to enter the field. Georgia Tech has two road wins against ACC teams over .500 (at Wake Forest and now at Duke). Its out-of-conference schedule includes wins over power conferences foes Colorado and Virginia Tech, but that pair is just 5-9 combined. None of the Yellow Jackets’ opponents are currently ranked, and entering this week, Georgia Tech’s schedule strength was No. 94 in the country. Still, the selection committee would see on its game film cut-ups that Haynes King threw for 205 yards against Duke and ran for a game-high 120 yards. It’s a talented team that continues to find ways to win, including with a school-record 95-yard scoop n’ score on Saturday.

Why they could be lower: The Jackets have found ways to win, but they haven’t exactly asserted themselves against unranked opponents. Their only double-digit win came against the 2-5 Hokies. Georgia Tech needed overtime to beat Wake Forest, 30-29, and the committee would know that the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that game that would have given the Demon Deacons a critical first down. The missed call allowed Georgia Tech to extend its drive and win in overtime.

Need to know: Georgia Tech might not have any wins against CFP Top 25 teams on Selection Day, but it wouldn’t matter if the Jackets locked up a spot as the ACC champion. It would be a part of the committee’s deliberations, though, if Georgia Tech finished as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with those losses coming to the ACC winner and rival Georgia.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes last year before losing, 44-42, in Athens.


Why they could be here: The Cougars beat their toughest opponent to-date, a ranked Utah team that now has two losses. BYU is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12, and continues to find ways to win. They’ve also got three road wins (East Carolina, Colorado and Arizona), and benefited from Texas Tech losing to ASU.

Why they could be lower: Wins against FCS Portland State, 2-4 Stanford, 3-4 Colorado and 2-5 West Virginia don’t stack up with the other contenders. BYU also needed double overtime to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.

Need to know: BYU would lock up a spot as the Big 12 champion, but if the Cougars can manage to stay undefeated until the conference title game, they would keep their hopes alive for earning an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The committee would consider how the title game unfolded, and if BYU lost a close game or in convincing fashion. It helps BYU that Cincinnati is having a good season and could be a CFP Top 25 team, but that’s a double edged sword because the Bearcats are also in their way.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. Even though the Red Raiders lost on Saturday, they’re still the most talented team left on the Cougars’ schedule.


Why they could be here: The Irish have won five straight since their 0-2 start, but it’s the way they have played during that stretch that would impress the committee enough to consider them for a top-12 spot. Notre Dame put it all together against USC, its first win against a ranked opponent this season. The Irish won the old-school way, with a strong running game and a defense that has shown measurable improvement in each of the past four games. Special teams was also a factor against the Trojans.

Why they could be lower: Two losses. Period. And it doesn’t help that the first was to Miami, which lost to Louisville.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, Notre Dame would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — South Florida as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12. As an independent, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five conference champions, so its only path is through an at-large bid.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win each of its remaining games, but this one is on the road against a team that found a way to win at Florida State.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Continue Reading

Trending