The news of asteroids hitting the earth within seven years has not been proven to be zero. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was in the headlines due to its potential to hit the Earth on 22 December 2032, as reported by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at its Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. The collision probability peaked at over three percent on February 18, which is the highest recorded for an object of this size. This ignited concerns regarding the damage it could cause if it hit the earth.

Observations and Behavior

A team of astronomers in NASA’s Gemini South Observatory in Chile observed this asteroid at different wavelengths in February for around one and a half months after it was discovered. Asteroid 2024 YR4 swings in the way of Earth every 4 years. However, it will be too distant by next week to be visible by the ground telescope. The James Webb Space Telescope will observe it again later in this month or the next, NASA stated in a post.

The asteroid is nearly 60 metres wide and shaped like a flat disk with a rapid rotation rate of about once every 20 minutes. This finding is unexpected as most of the asteroids’ shapes are like potatoes rather than flat discs, as stated by Bryce Bolin, the lead author of the study. It is more likely to originate in between the Mars and Jupiter asteroid belt, which is rich in silicates.

Assessment of Risk through Science Data

The collision probability of this asteroid is now down to under one percent, and 2024YR4 will no longer hit the Earth by 2032. However, there is a 3.8 percent probability that it could strike the Moon instead, which will not change the moon’s orbit. This incident highlights the need for monitoring the asteroid populations to identify the potential dangers to Earth.

New data collected in the following days lowered the probability to well under 1%, and 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a potential Earth impactor. However, the event underscored the importance of surveying asteroid populations to reveal possible threats to Earth. Sharing scientific data widely allows scientists to determine the risk posed by the near-Earth asteroid population and increases the chances of identifying future asteroid impact hazards in NASA science data.

Scientists help track the asteroids through worldwide observations given to Minor Planet Cenetr. CNEOS and NASA analyze the other potential objects near Earth and evaluate the risks. The planetary defense community recognizes the need of making data products available to everyone, said James Gerbs Bauer, NASA’s planetary Data System‘s principal investigator at the University of Maryland.

Role of Science Data in Future

NASA is working on a new space observatory, NEO Surveyor, the first spacecraft designed to assess the threats of asteroids well in advance. The mission launch date is expected to be in the fall of 2027, and the data received from it will be shared with everyone through NASA archives.

Bauer said that many of the NEOs that threaten the Earth need to be discovered. An asteroid impact might have a low likelihood at that point, but the repercussions could be high, and open science is observant. Thus, sharing the scientific data on a broader scale allows the scientists to define the threat by an NEO and enhance the possibility of discovering the future impact hazards of asteroids in the science data by NASA.