U.S.’ inability to replace rare earths supply from China poses a threat to its defense, warns CSIS
Workers transporting soil containing rare earth elements for export at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, Oct. 31, 2010.
Stringer | Reuters
As China imposes export controls on rare earth elements, the U.S. would be unable to fill a potential shortfall, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies — and this could threaten Washington’s military capabilities.
Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs on China, Beijing earlier this month imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets used in defense, energy and automotive technologies.
The new restrictions — which encompass the medium and heavy rare earth elements samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium — will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses to export the resources.
Though it remains to be seen exactly how China will implement this policy, the CSIS report, published Monday, warns that it will likely result in a pause in exports as Beijing establishes the licensing system, and cause disruptions in supply to some U.S. firms.
The New York Times reported earlier this week that a pause in China’s rare earth element exports was already occurring.
As China effectively holds a monopoly over the supply of global heavy rare earths processing, such restrictions pose a serious threat to the U.S., particularly its defense technology sector.
“The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains,” CSIS warned, emphasizing that rare earths are crucial for a range of advanced defense technologies and are used in types of fighter jets, submarines, missiles, radar systems and drones.
Along with the export controls, Beijing has placed 16 U.S. entities — all but one in the defense and aerospace industries — on its export control list. Placement on the list prevents companies from receiving “dual-use goods,” including the aforementioned rare earth elements.
Not ready to fill gap
According to CSIS’s report, if China’s trade controls result in a complete shutdown of the medium and heavy rare earth element exports, the U.S. will be incapable of filling the gap.
“There is no heavy rare earths separation happening in the United States at present,” CSIS said, though it noted the development of these capabilities is underway.
For example, the Department of Defense set a goal to develop a complete rare earth element supply chain that can meet all U.S. defense needs by 2027 in its 2024 National Defense Industrial Strategy.
Since 2020, the DOD has committed over $439 million toward building domestic supply chains and heavy rare earths processing facilities, according to data collected by CSIS.
However, CSIS said that by the time these facilities are operational, their output will fall well short of China’s, with the U.S. still far from meeting the DOD’s goal of an independent rare earth element supply.
“Developing mining and processing capabilities requires a long-term effort, meaning the United States will be on the back foot for the foreseeable future,” it added.
U.S. President Trump has also been seeking a deal with Ukraine, which would give it access to its deposits of rare earth minerals. However, questions remain about the value and accessibility of such deposits.
Implications
The CSIS report warns that the export controls pose direct threats to U.S. military readiness, highlighting that the country is already lagging behind in its defense manufacturing.
“Even before the latest restrictions, the U.S. defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands,” its authors said.
They cite an estimate that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the U.S., originating from a U.S. Air Force official in 2022.
“Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States,” the report concludes.
The U.S. is not alone in its concerns about China’s monopoly on rare earths, with countries like Australia and Brazil also investing in strengthening domestic rare earth elements supply chains.
CSIS recommends that the U.S. provide financial and diplomatic support to ensure the success of these initiatives.
However, China’s new export licensing system for the rare earths could also incentivize countries across the world to cooperate with China to prevent disruptions to their own supply of the elements, CSIS said.
A research report from Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, on Monday also noted how controls on rare earths and critical minerals have become part of Beijing’s playbook in pushing back against Washington.
Shearing notes that in addition to China’s hold on some rare earths, the supply of many other critical minerals, including cobalt and palladium, is concentrated in countries that align with Beijing.
“The weaponising of this control over critical minerals — and the race by other countries to secure alternative supplies — will be a central feature of a fractured global economy,” he said.
Technology
Amazon CEO Jassy says AI will lead to ‘fewer people doing some of the jobs’ that get automated
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the rapid rollout of generative artificial intelligence means the company will one day require fewer employees to do some of the work that computers can handle.
“Like with every technical transformation, there will be fewer people doing some of the jobs that the technology actually starts to automate,” Jassy told CNBC’s Jim Cramer in an interview on Monday. “But there’s going to be other jobs.”
Even as AI eliminates the need for some roles, Amazon will continue to hire more employees in AI, robotics and elsewhere, Jassy said.
Earlier this month, Jassy admitted that he expects the company’s workforce to decline in the next few years as Amazon embraces generative AI and AI-powered software agents. He told staffers in a memo that it will be “hard to know exactly where this nets out over time” but that the corporate workforce will shrink as Amazon wrings more efficiencies out of the technology.
It’s a message that’s making its way across the tech sector. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff last week claimed AI is doing 30% to 50% of the work at his software vendor. Other companies such as Shopify and Microsoft have urged employees to adopt the technology in their daily work. The CEO of Klarna said in May that the online lender has managed to shrink its headcount by about 40%, in part due to investments in AI and natural attrition in its workforce.
Jassy said on Monday that AI will free employees from “rote work” and “make all our jobs more interesting,” while enabling staffers to invent better services more quickly than before.
Amazon and other tech companies have also been shrinking their workforces through rolling layoffs over the past several years. Amazon has cut more than 27,000 jobs since the start of 2022, and it’s announced smaller, more targeted layoffs in its retail and devices units in recent months.
Amazon shares are flat so far this year, underperforming the Nasdaq, which has gained 5.5%. The stock is about 10% below its record reached in February, while fellow megacaps Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia are all trading at or very near record highs.
WATCH: Jassy says robots that will eventually do delivery and transportation
Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive officer of Meta Platforms Inc., during the Meta Connect event on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Meta shares hit a record high on Monday, underscoring investor interest in the company’s new AI superintelligence group.
The company’s shares reached $747.90 during midday trading, topping Meta’s previous stock market record in February when it began laying off the 5% of its workforce that it deemed “low performers.”
Meta joins Microsoft and Nvidia among tech megacaps that have reached new highs of late, all closing at records Monday. Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla remain below their all-time highs reached late last year or early this year.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been on an AI hiring blitz amid fierce competition with rivals such as OpenAI and Google parent Alphabet. Earlier in June, Meta said it would hire Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang and some of his colleagues as part of a $14.3 billion investment into the executive’s data labeling and annotation startup.
The social media company also hired Nat Friedman and his business partner, Daniel Gross, the chief of Safe Superintelligence, an AI startup with a valuation of $32 billion, CNBC reported on June 19. Meta’s attempts to buy Safe Superintelligence were rebuffed by the startup’s founder and AI expert Ilya Sutskever, the report noted.
Wang and Friedman are the leaders of Meta’s new Superintelligence Labs, tasked with overseeing the company’s artificial intelligence foundation models, projects and research, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. The term superintelligence refers to technology that exceeds human capability.
Bloomberg News first reported about the new superintelligence unit.
Meta has also snatched AI researchers from OpenAI. Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, said during a podcast that Meta was offering signing bonuses as high as $100 million.
Andrew Bosworth, Meta’s technology chief, spoke about the social media company’s AI hiring spree during a June 20 interview with CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime,” saying that the talent market is “really incredible and kind of unprecedented in my 20-year career as a technology executive.”
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike