U.S.’ inability to replace rare earths supply from China poses a threat to its defense, warns CSIS
Workers transporting soil containing rare earth elements for export at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, Oct. 31, 2010.
Stringer | Reuters
As China imposes export controls on rare earth elements, the U.S. would be unable to fill a potential shortfall, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies — and this could threaten Washington’s military capabilities.
Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs on China, Beijing earlier this month imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets used in defense, energy and automotive technologies.
The new restrictions — which encompass the medium and heavy rare earth elements samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium — will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses to export the resources.
Though it remains to be seen exactly how China will implement this policy, the CSIS report, published Monday, warns that it will likely result in a pause in exports as Beijing establishes the licensing system, and cause disruptions in supply to some U.S. firms.
The New York Times reported earlier this week that a pause in China’s rare earth element exports was already occurring.
As China effectively holds a monopoly over the supply of global heavy rare earths processing, such restrictions pose a serious threat to the U.S., particularly its defense technology sector.
“The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains,” CSIS warned, emphasizing that rare earths are crucial for a range of advanced defense technologies and are used in types of fighter jets, submarines, missiles, radar systems and drones.
Along with the export controls, Beijing has placed 16 U.S. entities — all but one in the defense and aerospace industries — on its export control list. Placement on the list prevents companies from receiving “dual-use goods,” including the aforementioned rare earth elements.
Not ready to fill gap
According to CSIS’s report, if China’s trade controls result in a complete shutdown of the medium and heavy rare earth element exports, the U.S. will be incapable of filling the gap.
“There is no heavy rare earths separation happening in the United States at present,” CSIS said, though it noted the development of these capabilities is underway.
For example, the Department of Defense set a goal to develop a complete rare earth element supply chain that can meet all U.S. defense needs by 2027 in its 2024 National Defense Industrial Strategy.
Since 2020, the DOD has committed over $439 million toward building domestic supply chains and heavy rare earths processing facilities, according to data collected by CSIS.
However, CSIS said that by the time these facilities are operational, their output will fall well short of China’s, with the U.S. still far from meeting the DOD’s goal of an independent rare earth element supply.
“Developing mining and processing capabilities requires a long-term effort, meaning the United States will be on the back foot for the foreseeable future,” it added.
U.S. President Trump has also been seeking a deal with Ukraine, which would give it access to its deposits of rare earth minerals. However, questions remain about the value and accessibility of such deposits.
Implications
The CSIS report warns that the export controls pose direct threats to U.S. military readiness, highlighting that the country is already lagging behind in its defense manufacturing.
“Even before the latest restrictions, the U.S. defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands,” its authors said.
They cite an estimate that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the U.S., originating from a U.S. Air Force official in 2022.
“Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States,” the report concludes.
The U.S. is not alone in its concerns about China’s monopoly on rare earths, with countries like Australia and Brazil also investing in strengthening domestic rare earth elements supply chains.
CSIS recommends that the U.S. provide financial and diplomatic support to ensure the success of these initiatives.
However, China’s new export licensing system for the rare earths could also incentivize countries across the world to cooperate with China to prevent disruptions to their own supply of the elements, CSIS said.
A research report from Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, on Monday also noted how controls on rare earths and critical minerals have become part of Beijing’s playbook in pushing back against Washington.
Shearing notes that in addition to China’s hold on some rare earths, the supply of many other critical minerals, including cobalt and palladium, is concentrated in countries that align with Beijing.
“The weaponising of this control over critical minerals — and the race by other countries to secure alternative supplies — will be a central feature of a fractured global economy,” he said.
Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng speaks to reporters at the electric carmaker’s stand at the IAA auto show in Munich, Germany on September 8, 2025.
Arjun Kharpal | CNBC
Germany this week played host to one of the world’s biggest auto shows — but in the heartland of Europe’s auto industry, it was buzzy Chinese electric car companies looking to outshine some of the region’s biggest brands on their home turf.
The IAA Mobility conference in Munich was packed full of companies with huge stands showing off their latest cars and technology. Among some of the biggest displays were those from Chinese electric car companies, underscoring their ambitions to expand beyond China.
Europe has become a focal point for the Asian firms. It’s a market where the traditional automakers are seen to be lagging in the development of electric vehicles, even as they ramp up releases of new cars. At the same time, Tesla, which was for so long seen as the electric vehicle market leader, has seen sales decline in the region.
Despite Chinese EV makers facing tariffs from the European Union, players from the world’s second-largest economy have responded to the ramping up of competition by setting aggressive sales and expansion targets.
“The current growth of Xpeng globally is faster than we have expected,” He Xiaopeng, the CEO of Xpeng told CNBC in an interview this week.
Aggressive expansion plans
Chinese carmakers who spoke to CNBC at the IAA show signaled their ambitious expansion plans.
Xpeng’s He said in an interview that the company is looking to launch its mass-market Mona series in Europe next year. In China, Xpeng’s Mona cars start at the equivalent of just under $17,000. Bringing this to Europe would add some serious price competition.
Meanwhile, Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) is targeting rapid growth of its sales in Europe. Wei Haigang, president of GAC International, told CNBC that the company aims to sell around 3,000 cars in Europe this year and at least 50,000 units by 2027. GAC also announced plans to bring two EVs — the Aion V and Aion UT — to Europe. Leapmotor was also in attendance with their own stand.
There are signs that Chinese players have made early in roads into Europe. The market share of Chinese car brands in Europe nearly doubled in the first half of the year versus the same period in 2024, though it still remains low at just over 5%, according to Jato Dynamics.
“The significant presence of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers at the IAA Mobility, signals their growing ambitions and confidence in the European market,” Murtuza Ali, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC.
Tech and gadgets in focus
Many of the Chinese car firms have positioned themselves as technology companies, much like Tesla, and their cars highlight that.
Many of the electric vehicles have big screens equipped with flashy interfaces and voice assistants. And in a bid to lure buyers, some companies have included additional gadgets.
For example, GAC’s Aion V sported a refrigerator as well as a massage function as part of the seating.
The Aion V is one of the cars GAC is launching in Europe as it looks to expand its presence in the region. The Aion V is on display at the company’s stand at the IAA Mobility auto show in Munich, Germany on September 9, 2025.
Arjun Kharpal | CNBC
This is one way that the Chinese players sought to differentiate themselves from legacy brands.
“The chances of success for Chinese automakers are strong, especially as they have an edge in terms of affordability, battery technology, and production scale,” Counterpoint’s Ali said.
Europe’s carmakers push back
Legacy carmakers sought to flex their own muscles at the IAA with Volskwagen, BMW and Mercedes having among the biggest stands at the show. Mercedes in particular had advertising displayed all across the front entrance of the event.
BMW, like the Chinese players, had a big focus on technology by talking up its so-called “superbrain architecture,” which replaces hardware with a centralized computer system. BMW, which introduced the iX3 at the event, and chipmaker Qualcomm also announced assisted driving software that the two companies co-developed.
Volkswagen and French auto firm Renault also showed off some new electric cars.
Regardless of the product blitz, there are still concerns that European companies are not moving fast enough. BMW’s new iX3 is based on the electric vehicle platform it first debuted two years ago. Meanwhile, Chinese EV makers have been quick in bringing out and launching newer models.
“A commitment to legacy structures and incrementalism has slowed its ability to build and leverage a robust EV ecosystem, leaving it behind fast moving rivals,” Tammy Madsen, professor of management at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University, said of BMW.
While European autos have a strong brand history and their CEOs acknowledged and welcomed the competition this week in interviews with CNBC, the Chinese are not letting up.
“Europe’s automakers still hold significant brand value and legacy. The challenge for them lies in achieving production at scale and adopting new technologies faster,” Counterpoint’s Ali said.
“The Chinese surely are not waiting for anyone to catch-up and are making significant gains.”
Marc Benioff is keeping an eye on Palantir.
The co-founder and CEO of sales and customer service management software company Salesforce is well aware that investors are betting big on Palantir, which offers data management software to businesses and government agencies.
“Oh my gosh. I am so inspired by that company,” Benioff told CNBC’s Morgan Brennan in a Tuesday interview at Goldman Sachs‘ Communacopia+Technology conference in San Francisco. “I mean, not just because they have 100 times, you know, multiple on their revenue, which I would love to have that too. Maybe it’ll have 1000 times on their revenue soon.”
Salesforce, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, remains 10 times larger than Palantir by revenue, with over $10 billion in revenue during the latest quarter. But Palantir is growing 48%, compared with 10% for Salesforce.
Benioff added that Palantir’s prices are “the most expensive enterprise software I’ve ever seen.”
“Maybe I’m not charging enough,” he said.
It wasn’t Benioff’s first time talking about Palantir. Last week, Benioff referenced Palantir’s “extraordinary” prices in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer, saying Salesforce offers a “very competitive product at a much lower cost.”
The next day, TBPN podcast hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays asked for a response from Alex Karp, Palantir’s co-founder and CEO.
“We are very focused on value creation, and we ask to be modestly compensated for that value,” Karp said.
The companies sometimes compete for government deals, and Benioff touted a recent win over Palantir for a U.S. Army contract.
Palantir started in 2003, four years after Salesforce. But while Salesforce went public in 2004, Palantir arrived on the New York Stock Exchange in 2020.
Palantir’s market capitalization stands at $406 billion, while Salesforce is worth $231 billion. And as one of the most frequently traded stocks on Robinhood, Palantir is popular with retail investors.
Salesforce shares are down 27% this year, the worst performance in large-cap tech.
Salesforce and Palantir year to date stock chart.
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