Elon Musk shut down internal Tesla analysis that showed Robotaxi would lose money
According to a credible new report, Elon Musk has reportedly shut down an internal analysis from Tesla executives that showed the company’s Robotaxi plans would lose money and that it should focus on its more affordable ‘Model 2’.
In early 2024, we reported that Musk had canceled Tesla’s plan for a new affordable electric vehicle built on its upcoming ‘unboxed’ vehicle platform, often referred to as ‘Model 2’ or ‘$25,000 Tesla’.
Instead, Musk pushed for only its new Robotaxi, also known as Cybercab, to be built on the new platform, and replaced the plans for a next-gen affordable EV with building cheaper versions of the Model Y and Model 3 with fewer features.
This decision culminated a long-in-the-making shift at Tesla from an EV automaker to an AI company focusing on self-driving cars.
We credit that shift initiated by Musk for the current slump Tesla finds itself in right now, where it has only launched a single new vehicle in the last 5 years, the Cybertruck, and it’s a total commercial flop.
Now, The Information is out with a new in-depth report based on Tesla insiders that describe the decision-making process around the cancellation of the affordable Tesla and the focus on Robotaxi.
The report describes a meeting at the end of February 2024 when several Tesla executives were pushing Musk to greenlight the $25,000 Tesla:
In the last week of February 2024, after a couple of years of back-and-forth debate on the Model 2, Musk called a meeting of a wide range of executives at Tesla’s offices in Palo Alto, Calif. The proposed $25,000 car was on the agenda—a final chance to air the vehicle’s pros and cons, the people said. Musk’s senior lieutenants argued intensely for the economic logic of producing both the Model 2 and the Robotaxi.
After unveiling its next-generation battery in 2020, Musk announced that Tesla would make a $25,000 EV in 2020, but he had clearly soured on the idea by 2024.
He said in October 2024:
I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless. Yeah. It would be silly. Like, it’ll be completely at odds with what we believe.
The Information says that Daniel Ho, head of Tesla vehicle programs, Drew Baglino, SVP of engineering, and Rohan Patel, head of business development and policy, Lars Moravy, vice president of vehicle engineering, and Franz von Holzhausen, chief designer, all pushed for Musk to greenlight the production of the new $25,000 model.
Omead Afshar, a Musk loyalist who started out as his chief of staff and now holds a wide-ranging executive role at Tesla, reportedly said, “Is there a mutiny?”
The executives pointed to an internal report that didn’t paint a good picture of Tesla’s Robotaxi plan. The report has credibility as Patel commented on it:
We had lots of modeling that showed the payback around FSD [Full Self Driving] and Robotaxi was going to be slow. It was going to be choppy. It was going to be very, very hard outside of the U.S., given the regulatory environment or lack of regulatory environment.
Musk dismissed the analysis, greenlighted the Cybercab, and killed the $25,000 driveable Tesla vehicle in favor of the Model Y-based cheaper vehicle with fewer features.
The information describes the analysis:
Much of the work was done by analysts working under Baglino, head of power train and one of Musk’s most trusted aides. The calculations began with some simple math and some broad assumptions: Individuals would buy the cars, but a large portion of the sales would go to fleet operators, and the vehicles would mostly be used for ride-sharing. Many people would give up car ownership and use Robotaxis. Tesla would get a cut of each Robotaxi ride.
The analysis followed a lot of Musk’s assumptions, such as that the US car fleet would shrink from 15 million a year to roughly 3 million due to Robotaxis having a 5 times higher utilization rate.
They subtracted people who wouldn’t want to switch to a robotaxi for various reasons, arriving at a potential for 1 million self-driving vehicles a year.
One of the people familiar with the analysis said:
There is ultimately a saturation of people who want to be ferried around in somebody else’s car.
After accounting for competition, Tesla figured it would be hard for robotaxis to replace the ~600,000 vehicles it sells in the US annually.
Tesla calculated that the robotaxis would bring in about $20,000 to $25,000 in revenue at the sale and about three times that from Tesla’s share of the fares it would complete over their lifetimes:
The analysts figured Robotaxis would sell for between $20,000 and $25,000, and that Tesla could make up to three times that over the lifetime of the cars through its cut of fares. They added in capital spending and operational costs, plus services like charging stations and parking depots.
The internal analysis assigned a much lower value to Tesla robotaxis than Musk had previously stated publicly.
In 2019, Musk said:
If we make all cars with FSD package self-driving, as planned, any such Tesla should be worth $100k to $200k, as utility increases from ~12 hours/week to ~60 hours/week.
Furthermore, Tesla’s internal analysis pointed toward difficulties expanding into other markets, which could limit the scale and profitability of the robotaxi program. Ultimately, it predicted that it could lose money for years.
Electrek’s Take
For years, this has been one of my biggest concerns about Tesla: Musk surrounding himself with yesmen and not listening to others.
This looks like a perfect example. It was a terrible decision fueled by Musk’s belief that he was smarter than anyone in the room and encouraged by sycophants like Afshar.
Musk has been selling Tesla shareholders on a perfect robotaxi future, but the truth is not as rosy, and that’s if they solve self-driving ahead of the competition, which is a big if.
It’s not new for the CEO to make outlandish growth promises, but it’s another thing to do at the detriment of an already profitable and fast-growing auto business.
The report also supports our suspicions that the shift in strategy contributed to some of Tesla’s talent exodus last year.
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Fortescue is marching towards zero emissions as it invests in new, zero-emission mining equipment options across its global operations. And that investment? It’s already paying off. One analyst says the company’s saving almost $400 million in fuel costs alone. Each year.
From massive, Liebherr-built electric haul trucks and excavators to more than $400 million in Chinese equipment from XCMG, Fortescue is putting its money where its mouth is and making real efforts to decarbonize its global mining operations.
“We’re moving rapidly to decarbonize our Pilbara iron ore operations and eliminate our Scope 1 and 2 terrestrial emissions by 2030. To achieve this target, we will need to swap out hundreds of pieces of diesel mining equipment at the end of their life with zero emissions alternatives,” said Fortescue Metals Chief Executive Officer, Dino Otranto, when the XCMG order was announced. “As the global mining industry continues to evolve, we’re proud to be at the forefront of driving innovation in value adding green technology and showing the world that industry can decarbonize.”
Those efforts aren’t just cutting back on air pollution. Electric equipment assets are helping to keep the company’s workers safe and healthy, too. What’s more, they’re saving the company money – they’re already seeing $300-400 million in fuel savings annually.
Liebherr T264 electric haul truck
The Liebherr T264 electric haul trucks now working for Fortescue defy common sense notions of size, scale, and power. Each truck tips the scales at 176 tonnes (194 tons) and can haul more than 240 tonnes (265 tons) of payload thanks to powerful electric motors and a big-as-a-house-sized 3.2 MWh battery that can be recharged in a little over 30 minutes by Liebherr’s proprietary 6 MW DC fast charger.
If you could keep the car from exploding, that 6 MW (that’s 6,000 kW to you and me) charger could zap a Tesla Model Y Long Range’s 75 kWh battery in some thirty (30) seconds.
“Fortescue has ordered 360 of (T264 battery electric haul trucks) as part of a $4 billion deal with Liebherr to electrify operations at its enormous iron ore mines,” says Gavin Mooney, general manager at Australian energy software platform, Kaluza. “Fuel and energy costs are Fortescue’s biggest operating costs as well as largest source of emissions. By electrifying operations like this it will be able to kill two birds with one stone.”
Battery electric vehicles have moved millions of tons of material at Fortescue mines over the last two years alone, and continue to keep the minerals moving with minimal less impact to the environment.
Electrek’s Take
With billions of dollars on the line and pressure to reduce carbon emissions coming from all sides, it should come as no surprise that the race is on to bring practical, electric, and autonomous heavy mining equipment to market. At CES 2024, electric equipment from Hyundai, Bobcat, Volvo CE, and Caterpillar garnered lots of attention with their innovative concepts, and analysts like IDTechEx estimate that a single 150-ton haul truck can use over $850,000 worth of fuel in a single year.
Meanwhile, big electric haul trucks like this 240 ton unit from Caterpillar can, in certain use cases with high amounts of regenerative braking, operate without any significant cost to recharge. At that point, the reduced maintenance and downtime of BEVs compared to diesel vehicles becomes icing on the TCO cake.
We spoke to Fortescue Zero executives a few months ago on a special interview episode of Quick Charge. Check it out (above) then let us know what you think of Fortescue’s fuel savings in the comments.
Sources links throughout; featured image by Fortescue Zero.
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This world’s first fully electric deconstruction site is being hailed as a landmark in sustainable urban development — and it’s powered by Siemens technology and Volvo Group’s battery-electric trucks and heavy equipment.
The deconstruction project (that’s kind of like a really careful demolition) marks the first full-scale electric deconstruction of its kind, and serves as important proof that with the right partners and the will to do it, urban construction projects like this can be carried out sustainably, today – and all without fossil fuels. It’s all part of Siemens’ €500 million technology campus redevelopment, the deconstruction site in Erlangen, Germany, and marks a pivotal step in advancing sustainable urban transformation and circular construction practices.
In collaboration with the demolition specialists at Metzner Recycling, Volvo CE deployed a fully electric fleet of equipment assets specially chosen to deliver quiet, precision demolition across the 25,000 cubic meter job site.
As well as deconstruction tasks, the electric machines helped sort and process approximately 12,800 tons of construction waste, with 96% recycled into raw materials for future use – supporting the shift towards circular materials management.
VOLVO CE
“At Siemens Real Estate, we are committed to pushing the boundaries of sustainable construction and demolition,” explains Christian Franz, Head of Sustainability at Siemens Real Estate. “This groundbreaking electric deconstruction project boasts an impressive 96% recycling rate and is a testament to our commitment to achieving excellence in sustainability … this project illustrates how partnerships and determination can create a lasting impact and help shape a more sustainable real estate industry.”
In addition the construction equipment was hauled into the site by Volvo Truck’s battery electric semi trucks, enabling emission-free operations from demolition, to crushing, materials processing, and transport.
Electrek’s Take
With a full line of electric wheel loaders, excavators, articulated haul trucks – even drum rollers and off-grid charging solutions to haul around with their electric semi trucks – Volvo is in a great position to take advantage of increasingly restrictive noise and emission regulations across Europe.
It’s too bad they’re suing California to be able to pollute more.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo CE.
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Hyundai offered a first look at the hot hatch earlier this week after unveiling the Concept Three, its first compact EV under the IONIQ family. The new EV, set to arrive as the IONIQ 3, already has a sporty, hot hatch look, but that could be just the start.
Hyundai has a new EV hot hatch in the making
The Concept Three took the spotlight at IAA Mobility in Munich with a daring new look from Hyundai. Based on its new “Art of Steel” design, the concept is a stark contrast to the Hyundai vehicles on the road today.
Hyundai took the “Aero Hatch” design to the next level, deeming it “a new typology that reimagines the compact EV silhouette.” And that it does.
When it arrives in production form in mid-2026, it’s expected to take the IONIQ 3 name as a smaller, more affordable sibling to the IONIQ 5.
Hyundai is set to unveil the electric hatchback next spring with an official launch planned in Europe in September 2026. According to Hyundai’s European boss, Xavier Martinet, the IONIQ 3 could make for the perfect EV hot hatch.
Martinet hinted that the IONIQ 3 could receive the “N” treatment, telling Auto Express that “The concept is quite sporty, and obviously you have heritage with N brand.” Hyundai’s European boss added that “it’s a fair topic to consider.”
Although it doesn’t sound too convincing, Hyundai’s head of design, Simon Loasby, called it “an opportunity.” Loasby was quick to add, “We’re not calling it N, it’s not approved yet.”
“But I think everyone in the company is realising what Europe needs, and that’s compact hot hatches, so it’s a topic for discussion,” Hyundai’s design boss added.
The Concept Three is 4,287 mm long, 1,940 mm wide, and 1,428 mm tall, with a wheelbase of 2,722 mm, or about the size of the Kia EV3 and Volkswagen ID.3. Both of which are set for hot hatch variants.
If the IONIQ 3 N does come to life, it will be the third Hyundai EV to receive the high-performance upgrade, following the IONIQ 5 N and IONIQ 6 N.
The IONIQ 5 N “was just the first lap,” according to Joon Park, vice president of Hyundai’s N Brand Management Group. He told Auto Express that Hyundai is “at the starting line” and plans to apply what it learned from its first EV hot hatch to upcoming models.
If you’re looking for an affordable electric hot hatch, Hyundai already offers one. After Hyundai cut lease prices last month, the IONIQ 5 N is now listed at just $549 per month. That’s $150 less per month than in July.
Want to test one out for yourself? You can use our link to find 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 models in your area (trusted affiliate link).
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