Elon Musk shut down internal Tesla analysis that showed Robotaxi would lose money
According to a credible new report, Elon Musk has reportedly shut down an internal analysis from Tesla executives that showed the company’s Robotaxi plans would lose money and that it should focus on its more affordable ‘Model 2’.
In early 2024, we reported that Musk had canceled Tesla’s plan for a new affordable electric vehicle built on its upcoming ‘unboxed’ vehicle platform, often referred to as ‘Model 2’ or ‘$25,000 Tesla’.
Instead, Musk pushed for only its new Robotaxi, also known as Cybercab, to be built on the new platform, and replaced the plans for a next-gen affordable EV with building cheaper versions of the Model Y and Model 3 with fewer features.
This decision culminated a long-in-the-making shift at Tesla from an EV automaker to an AI company focusing on self-driving cars.
We credit that shift initiated by Musk for the current slump Tesla finds itself in right now, where it has only launched a single new vehicle in the last 5 years, the Cybertruck, and it’s a total commercial flop.
Now, The Information is out with a new in-depth report based on Tesla insiders that describe the decision-making process around the cancellation of the affordable Tesla and the focus on Robotaxi.
The report describes a meeting at the end of February 2024 when several Tesla executives were pushing Musk to greenlight the $25,000 Tesla:
In the last week of February 2024, after a couple of years of back-and-forth debate on the Model 2, Musk called a meeting of a wide range of executives at Tesla’s offices in Palo Alto, Calif. The proposed $25,000 car was on the agenda—a final chance to air the vehicle’s pros and cons, the people said. Musk’s senior lieutenants argued intensely for the economic logic of producing both the Model 2 and the Robotaxi.
After unveiling its next-generation battery in 2020, Musk announced that Tesla would make a $25,000 EV in 2020, but he had clearly soured on the idea by 2024.
He said in October 2024:
I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless. Yeah. It would be silly. Like, it’ll be completely at odds with what we believe.
The Information says that Daniel Ho, head of Tesla vehicle programs, Drew Baglino, SVP of engineering, and Rohan Patel, head of business development and policy, Lars Moravy, vice president of vehicle engineering, and Franz von Holzhausen, chief designer, all pushed for Musk to greenlight the production of the new $25,000 model.
Omead Afshar, a Musk loyalist who started out as his chief of staff and now holds a wide-ranging executive role at Tesla, reportedly said, “Is there a mutiny?”
The executives pointed to an internal report that didn’t paint a good picture of Tesla’s Robotaxi plan. The report has credibility as Patel commented on it:
We had lots of modeling that showed the payback around FSD [Full Self Driving] and Robotaxi was going to be slow. It was going to be choppy. It was going to be very, very hard outside of the U.S., given the regulatory environment or lack of regulatory environment.
Musk dismissed the analysis, greenlighted the Cybercab, and killed the $25,000 driveable Tesla vehicle in favor of the Model Y-based cheaper vehicle with fewer features.
The information describes the analysis:
Much of the work was done by analysts working under Baglino, head of power train and one of Musk’s most trusted aides. The calculations began with some simple math and some broad assumptions: Individuals would buy the cars, but a large portion of the sales would go to fleet operators, and the vehicles would mostly be used for ride-sharing. Many people would give up car ownership and use Robotaxis. Tesla would get a cut of each Robotaxi ride.
The analysis followed a lot of Musk’s assumptions, such as that the US car fleet would shrink from 15 million a year to roughly 3 million due to Robotaxis having a 5 times higher utilization rate.
They subtracted people who wouldn’t want to switch to a robotaxi for various reasons, arriving at a potential for 1 million self-driving vehicles a year.
One of the people familiar with the analysis said:
There is ultimately a saturation of people who want to be ferried around in somebody else’s car.
After accounting for competition, Tesla figured it would be hard for robotaxis to replace the ~600,000 vehicles it sells in the US annually.
Tesla calculated that the robotaxis would bring in about $20,000 to $25,000 in revenue at the sale and about three times that from Tesla’s share of the fares it would complete over their lifetimes:
The analysts figured Robotaxis would sell for between $20,000 and $25,000, and that Tesla could make up to three times that over the lifetime of the cars through its cut of fares. They added in capital spending and operational costs, plus services like charging stations and parking depots.
The internal analysis assigned a much lower value to Tesla robotaxis than Musk had previously stated publicly.
In 2019, Musk said:
If we make all cars with FSD package self-driving, as planned, any such Tesla should be worth $100k to $200k, as utility increases from ~12 hours/week to ~60 hours/week.
Furthermore, Tesla’s internal analysis pointed toward difficulties expanding into other markets, which could limit the scale and profitability of the robotaxi program. Ultimately, it predicted that it could lose money for years.
Electrek’s Take
For years, this has been one of my biggest concerns about Tesla: Musk surrounding himself with yesmen and not listening to others.
This looks like a perfect example. It was a terrible decision fueled by Musk’s belief that he was smarter than anyone in the room and encouraged by sycophants like Afshar.
Musk has been selling Tesla shareholders on a perfect robotaxi future, but the truth is not as rosy, and that’s if they solve self-driving ahead of the competition, which is a big if.
It’s not new for the CEO to make outlandish growth promises, but it’s another thing to do at the detriment of an already profitable and fast-growing auto business.
The report also supports our suspicions that the shift in strategy contributed to some of Tesla’s talent exodus last year.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
The US solar industry just delivered another huge quarter, installing 11.7 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in Q3 2025. That makes it the third-largest quarter on record and pushes total solar additions this year past 30 GW – despite the Trump administration’s efforts to kneecap clean energy.
According to the new “US Solar Market Insight Q4 2025” report from Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, 85% of all new power added to the grid during the first nine months of the Trump administration came from solar and storage. And here’s the twist: Most of that growth – 73% – happened in red states.
Eight of the top 10 states for new installations fall into that category, including Texas, Indiana, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Utah, Kentucky, and Arkansas. Utah jumped into the top 10 this quarter thanks to two big utility-scale projects totaling more than 1 GW.
But the report also flags major uncertainty ahead. Federal actions, including a July memo from the Department of the Interior (DOI), have slowed or stalled the approvals pipeline for utility-scale solar and storage. Without clarity on permitting timelines, Wood Mackenzie’s long-term utility-scale forecast through 2030 remains basically unchanged from last quarter.
“This record-setting quarter for solar deployment shows that the market is continuing to turn to solar to meet rising demand,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, SEIA’s president and CEO. She added that strong growth in red states underscores how decisively the market is shifting toward clean energy. “But unless this administration reverses course, the future of clean, affordable, and reliable solar and storage will be frozen by uncertainty, and Americans will continue to see their energy bills go up.”
Two new solar module factories opened this year in Louisiana and South Carolina, adding a combined 4.7 GW of capacity. That brings the total new US module manufacturing capacity added in 2025 to 17.7 GW. With a new wafer facility coming online in Michigan in Q3, the US can now produce every major component of the solar module supply chain.
“We expect 250 GW of solar to be installed from 2025 to 2030,” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report. “But the US solar industry has more potential. With rising power demand across the country, solar could do even more if current constraints were eased.”
SEIA also noted that, following an analysis of EIA data, it found that more than 73 GW of solar projects across the US are stuck in permitting limbo and at risk of politically motivated delays or cancellations.
Read more: EIA: Solar + storage soar as fossil fuels stall through September 2025
If you’re looking to replace your old HVAC equipment, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you’re finding a trusted, reliable HVAC installer near you that offers competitive pricing on heat pumps, check out EnergySage. EnergySage is a free service that makes it easy for you to get a heat pump. They have pre-vetted heat pump installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions. Plus, it’s free to use!
Your personalized heat pump quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here. – *ad
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
The spiritual successor to the beloved Chevy Geo Tracker, production of the new-for-2026 electric Spark EUV has officially begun in Brazil with more than 200 miles of range.
That’s right, kids. To know the Chevy Tracker is to love the Chevy Tracker. The tiny, top-heavy Suzuki-based SUV combined bold colors, fun styling, (relatively) good fuel economy, and real off-road chops (especially in ZR2 trim) with an affordable price tag to make the Tracker an early favorite among the serious rock-crawling crowds.
Like, really
While it’s still too early to tell whether or not the all-new Chevy Spark EUV will come even close to that little proto-SUV, it seems we won’t have to wait much longer to find out – GM Authority reports that production of the 2026 Chevy Spark EUV has officially begun at Comexport’s Planta Automotiva do Ceará (PACE) plant, in the state of Ceará, Brazil.
GM Brazil invested the equivalent of $73 million to get the PACE factory ready to assemble GM’s modern, zero-emissions Chevy crossover for the South American and Middle Eastern markets – an investment big enough to earn a visit from Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was on-hand for the December 3rd kickoff event.
“It’s not a car factory,” said Comexport Vice President and PACE shareholder, Rodrigo Teixeir. “(The) goal is to develop technology there, not simply assemble a vehicle.”
Production of the new Spark EUV began last week, with production of the equally new Chevy Captiva EV set to begin as early as Q1 of 2026.
2026 Chevy Spark EUV
The Made in Brazil Chevrolet Spark EUV is heavily based on the Chinese Baojun, and is powered by that vehicle’s single 75 kW (101 hp), 180 Nm (130 lb-ft) motor driving the front wheels. Power comes from the Baojun’s 42 kWh LFP battery that, with regenerative braking, is good for up to 360 km (220 miles) on the NEDC driving cycle.
Weirdly, the new Spark is also equipped with a 10.1″ infotainment screen and 8.8″ digital instrument cluster (above) that supports both Apple CarPlay and Android Auto standard – technology that GM claims lead to “unsafe” driver behaviors in North America.
Let us know what you think of the little electric SUV, and whether or not you think it would be a hit in the US (it would) in the comments.
SOURCE: GM Authority; images by GM, Harry Situations.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment3 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024