Elon Musk shut down internal Tesla analysis that showed Robotaxi would lose money
According to a credible new report, Elon Musk has reportedly shut down an internal analysis from Tesla executives that showed the company’s Robotaxi plans would lose money and that it should focus on its more affordable ‘Model 2’.
In early 2024, we reported that Musk had canceled Tesla’s plan for a new affordable electric vehicle built on its upcoming ‘unboxed’ vehicle platform, often referred to as ‘Model 2’ or ‘$25,000 Tesla’.
Instead, Musk pushed for only its new Robotaxi, also known as Cybercab, to be built on the new platform, and replaced the plans for a next-gen affordable EV with building cheaper versions of the Model Y and Model 3 with fewer features.
This decision culminated a long-in-the-making shift at Tesla from an EV automaker to an AI company focusing on self-driving cars.
We credit that shift initiated by Musk for the current slump Tesla finds itself in right now, where it has only launched a single new vehicle in the last 5 years, the Cybertruck, and it’s a total commercial flop.
Now, The Information is out with a new in-depth report based on Tesla insiders that describe the decision-making process around the cancellation of the affordable Tesla and the focus on Robotaxi.
The report describes a meeting at the end of February 2024 when several Tesla executives were pushing Musk to greenlight the $25,000 Tesla:
In the last week of February 2024, after a couple of years of back-and-forth debate on the Model 2, Musk called a meeting of a wide range of executives at Tesla’s offices in Palo Alto, Calif. The proposed $25,000 car was on the agenda—a final chance to air the vehicle’s pros and cons, the people said. Musk’s senior lieutenants argued intensely for the economic logic of producing both the Model 2 and the Robotaxi.
After unveiling its next-generation battery in 2020, Musk announced that Tesla would make a $25,000 EV in 2020, but he had clearly soured on the idea by 2024.
He said in October 2024:
I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless. Yeah. It would be silly. Like, it’ll be completely at odds with what we believe.
The Information says that Daniel Ho, head of Tesla vehicle programs, Drew Baglino, SVP of engineering, and Rohan Patel, head of business development and policy, Lars Moravy, vice president of vehicle engineering, and Franz von Holzhausen, chief designer, all pushed for Musk to greenlight the production of the new $25,000 model.
Omead Afshar, a Musk loyalist who started out as his chief of staff and now holds a wide-ranging executive role at Tesla, reportedly said, “Is there a mutiny?”
The executives pointed to an internal report that didn’t paint a good picture of Tesla’s Robotaxi plan. The report has credibility as Patel commented on it:
We had lots of modeling that showed the payback around FSD [Full Self Driving] and Robotaxi was going to be slow. It was going to be choppy. It was going to be very, very hard outside of the U.S., given the regulatory environment or lack of regulatory environment.
Musk dismissed the analysis, greenlighted the Cybercab, and killed the $25,000 driveable Tesla vehicle in favor of the Model Y-based cheaper vehicle with fewer features.
The information describes the analysis:
Much of the work was done by analysts working under Baglino, head of power train and one of Musk’s most trusted aides. The calculations began with some simple math and some broad assumptions: Individuals would buy the cars, but a large portion of the sales would go to fleet operators, and the vehicles would mostly be used for ride-sharing. Many people would give up car ownership and use Robotaxis. Tesla would get a cut of each Robotaxi ride.
The analysis followed a lot of Musk’s assumptions, such as that the US car fleet would shrink from 15 million a year to roughly 3 million due to Robotaxis having a 5 times higher utilization rate.
They subtracted people who wouldn’t want to switch to a robotaxi for various reasons, arriving at a potential for 1 million self-driving vehicles a year.
One of the people familiar with the analysis said:
There is ultimately a saturation of people who want to be ferried around in somebody else’s car.
After accounting for competition, Tesla figured it would be hard for robotaxis to replace the ~600,000 vehicles it sells in the US annually.
Tesla calculated that the robotaxis would bring in about $20,000 to $25,000 in revenue at the sale and about three times that from Tesla’s share of the fares it would complete over their lifetimes:
The analysts figured Robotaxis would sell for between $20,000 and $25,000, and that Tesla could make up to three times that over the lifetime of the cars through its cut of fares. They added in capital spending and operational costs, plus services like charging stations and parking depots.
The internal analysis assigned a much lower value to Tesla robotaxis than Musk had previously stated publicly.
In 2019, Musk said:
If we make all cars with FSD package self-driving, as planned, any such Tesla should be worth $100k to $200k, as utility increases from ~12 hours/week to ~60 hours/week.
Furthermore, Tesla’s internal analysis pointed toward difficulties expanding into other markets, which could limit the scale and profitability of the robotaxi program. Ultimately, it predicted that it could lose money for years.
Electrek’s Take
For years, this has been one of my biggest concerns about Tesla: Musk surrounding himself with yesmen and not listening to others.
This looks like a perfect example. It was a terrible decision fueled by Musk’s belief that he was smarter than anyone in the room and encouraged by sycophants like Afshar.
Musk has been selling Tesla shareholders on a perfect robotaxi future, but the truth is not as rosy, and that’s if they solve self-driving ahead of the competition, which is a big if.
It’s not new for the CEO to make outlandish growth promises, but it’s another thing to do at the detriment of an already profitable and fast-growing auto business.
The report also supports our suspicions that the shift in strategy contributed to some of Tesla’s talent exodus last year.
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OpenAI is distancing itself from Robinhood‘s latest crypto push after the trading platform began offering tokenized shares of OpenAI and SpaceX to users in Europe.
“These ‘OpenAI tokens’ are not OpenAI equity,” OpenAI wrote on X. “We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it.”
The company said that “any transfer of OpenAI equity requires our approval — we did not approve any transfer,” and warned users to “please be careful.”
Robinhood announced the launch Monday from Cannes, France, as part of a broader product showcase focused on tokenized equities, staking, and a new blockchain infrastructure play. The company’s stock surged above $100 to hit a new all-time high following the news.
“These tokens give retail investors indirect exposure to private markets, opening up access, and are enabled by Robinhood’s ownership stake in a special purpose vehicle,” a Robinhood spokesperson said in response to the OpenAI post.
Robinhood offered 5 euros worth of OpenAI and SpaceX tokens to eligible EU users who signed up to trade stock tokens by July 7. The assets are issued under the EU’s looser investor restrictions via Robinhood’s crypto platform.
“This is about expanding access,” said Johann Kerbrat, Robinhood’s SVP and GM of crypto. “The goal with tokenization is to let anyone participate in this economy.”
The episode highlights the dynamic between crypto platforms seeking to democratize access to financial products and the companies whose names and equity are being represented on-chain
U.S. users cannot access these tokens due to regulatory restrictions.
Despite the warnings, BYD continues introducing new discounts. On Wednesday, BYD’s luxury off-road brand began offering over 50% Huawei’s smart driving tech.
BYD introduces new discounts on smart driving tech
After BYD cut prices again in May, the China Automobile Manufacturers Association (CAMA) warned that the ultra-low prices are “triggering a new round of price war panic.”
Although they didn’t single out BYD, it was pretty obvious. BYD slashed prices across 22 of its vehicles by up to 34%, triggering several automakers to follow suit in China.
BYD’s cheapest EV, the Seagull, typically starts at about $10,000 (66,800 yuan). After the price cuts, the Seagull is listed at under $8,000 (55,800 yuan).
It doesn’t look like China’s EV leader plans to slow down anytime soon. Fang Cheng Bao, BYD’s luxury off-road brand, introduced new discounts on Huawei’s smart driving tech on Wednesday.
The limited-time offer cuts the price of Huawei’s Qiankun Intelligent Driving High-end Function Package to just 12,000 yuan ($1,700).
Buyers who order the smart driving tech in July will save over 50% compared to its typical price of 32,000 yuan ($4,500).
Earlier this year, Fang Chang Bao launched the Tai 3, its most affordable vehicle, starting at 139,800 yuan ($19,300). The Tai 3 is about the size of the Tesla Model Y, but costs about half as much.
The Tai 3 will spearhead a new sub-brand of electric SUVs following the more premium Bao 8 and Bao 5 hybrid SUVs.
BYD’s luxury off-road brand sold 18,903 vehicles last month, up 50% from May and 605% compared to last year. Fang Cheng Bao has now sold over 10,000 vehicles for three consecutive months.
The Chinese EV giant sold 382,585 vehicles in total in June, an increase of 12% from last year. In the first half of the year, BYD’s cumulative sales reached over 2.1 million, a YOY increase of 33%.
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Every year, it seems like there’s a new headline about the world’s lightest electric bike. Each year, engineers manage to shave a few more grams off of an exotically designed frame built with even more exotic materials. And each year, the continuously lower weight is balanced by continuously higher prices – often exorbitantly high. But now Dahon has bucked that trend, offering us an incredibly lightweight electric bike at a price that normal e-bike riders can afford. Meet the Dahon K-Feather.
To put things in perspective, some of the previous lightest electric bicycles have included the 11.8 kg (26 lb) LeMond Prolog at US $4,500, the 11.75 kg (12.59 lb) Trek Domane+ SLR at US $8,999, and the 10 kg (22 lb) Hummingbird Flax folding e-bike at US $6,050.
So with that in mind, please allow me to introduce you to the new Dahon K-Feather. This is a 12 kg (26.5 kg) folding electric bike priced at an incredibly reasonable US $1,199 in North America or €1,499 in Europe.
Sure, it’s not the absolute lightest folding e-bike we’ve ever seen, but it’s 90% of the way there and at a quarter of the price. Plus, it comes from Dahon, which is one of the most respected names in the folding bike world and is largely credited with paving the way for the booming folding bike industry we see today. Since the 1980s, Dahon’s innovative designs have been imitated around the world, yet the folding bike maker has continued to innovate and stay several steps ahead of competing brands.
The K-feather achieves its extra low weight through the combination of a novel frame design employing Dahon’s patented frame designs, including the company’s DELTECH technology and “super down tube,” which help improve rigidity and robustness while reducing weight.
The electrical system on the K-Feather is also a featherweight, keeping the e-bike largely in the last-mile category. While the battery claims a maximum range of up to 24.8 miles (40 km), real-world riding and hilly terrain could reduce that range. Still, clever designs like a system that automatically shuts off the extra motor power when detecting a downhill segment help to eke out more range from the small 24V and 5Ah battery.
The ultra-lightweight 250W hub motor also offers just 32 Nm of torque, meaning the assist is more of a helpful push than a powerful shove. But with the inclusion of a torque sensor for the pedal assist, that push comes on quickly and reliably, making the bike feel more like a traditional analog bike being pedaled by someone with extra strong legs.
With 16″ dual-wall rims and 14g spokes, this isn’t the heavy fat tire folding e-bikes we’re used to in North America, and the capacity reflects that. The K-Feather is rated to support riders weighing up to 105 kg (231 lb), though the highly adjustable seating position can support a range of rider heights from 145 to 190.5 cm (4’9″ to 6’3″).
Coming in six colorways, the Dahon K-feather folding e-bike is now available in the US and has launched for pre-order in Europe, with shipments there expected in September.
I had a bit of a preview of the K-feather on my last trip to China when I was able to visit Dahon’s headquarters and test ride the bike.
I still can’t believe how light it felt, both underneath me and while folding it up and carrying it around. Be on the lookout for that full experience from my trip, coming soon.
Electrek’s Take
The K-Feather represents a compelling milestone not just for Dahon, but for the entire folding e-bike market. By delivering a truly lightweight, compact, and fully electric folder at an impressively affordable price point, Dahon has made minimalist e-mobility more accessible than ever.
It’s not just a bike for die-hard lightweight e-bike connoisseurs; it’s a real-world solution for commuters, travelers, and apartment dwellers who want the freedom of electric assist without the bulk or the sticker shock. If the goal is to get more people on two wheels, the K-Feather might just be one of the most important steps forward yet.
Coming in at less than half the weight of most folding e-bikes, and still a fraction of most lighter-duty folders, the K-Feather’s modest performance makes it a great urban ride for those who favor compact size and light weight. In fact, I think it might be perfect for my mother-in-law, who needs an e-bike to get to and from the train she takes to work, but also needs it to be light enough to carry up to her second-story apartment. Hmmm, perhaps I should have her do a review for us…
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