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Eugene Melnyk believed in the Ottawa Senators — bullishly, unabashedly and with trademark bravado.

It’s what made the Senators’ late owner such a lightning rod around the league. And his stance was firm until he passed away that Ottawa would rise again to be a playoff contender.

“I truly believe that we are a Stanley Cup winner within four years,” Melnyk said in 2020. “It can happen any time, but within four years.”

The declaration was bold, and totally befitting Melnyk’s persona. At the time, Ottawa hadn’t reached the postseason since falling in Game 7 of the 2017 Eastern Conference finals. The Senators went from being one goal away from a Stanley Cup Final to racking up one losing season after another.

Melnyk backed up his audacious words with a reported 112-page plan devised with then-general manager Pierre Dorion on how Ottawa would clear the high bar Melnyk had newly set. They were prepared to spend right to the salary cap in pursuit of his vision.

What else was written in that document may never be known publicly. What is obvious is that Ottawa failed rather spectacularly in living up to Melnyk’s expectations.

For seven long years the Senators struggled. There were definitive highs and sweeping lows. And now, at last, a breakthrough.

The Ottawa Senators are officially playoff contenders again, staking their claim on Sunday to the Eastern Conference’s first wild-card slot.

It wasn’t the prettiest of landings; Ottawa actually punched their ticket after a dreadful 5-2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. But because the Montreal Canadiens beat the Detroit Red Wings that same night, the Senators clinched anyway.

They don’t ask how, right?

But seriously. How did the Senators do it, exactly? That’s a long story. But there are at minimum a few key elements that pushed Ottawa over the top — and brought them one critical pace closer to possibly making good on Melnyk’s prediction of a championship-caliber future.

“It’s a good first step for this group,” GM Steve Staios said of reaching the postseason. “I’m really excited for our players. From day one when they came into training camp you could see that there was this motivation.”


THE SENATORS DIDN’T get back to the playoffs before Melnyk passed in 2022. Dorion — who came on board with the Senators right before that magical run to the conference finals — failed to guide Ottawa back into the postseason before he was fired in 2023.

The freefall Ottawa took from Eastern Conference darlings to basement dwellers was baffling. The Senators finished the 2017-18 season in 30th place to signal the start of a surprisingly swift rebuild. Top defenseman Erik Karlsson was traded to San Jose in September 2018, before the start of a miserable season which ultimately pushed away Matt Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel — all three veterans were traded by the 2019 deadline. The Senators were in last place by March 2019 and head coach Guy Boucher was axed. Ottawa was desperate for change.

DJ Smith took over Ottawa’s bench for the 2019-20 season and attempted to turn the youthful Senators around — Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson were already in the lineup then, and by 2020 Ottawa had drafted first-rounders Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson.

Dorion upped the ante in 2022 in an effort to end the rebuild, trading for Alex DeBrincat (then a pending restricted free agent) and Cam Talbot, and signing free agent Claude Giroux to bolster the Senators’ chances. Ottawa missed the playoff that next season by six points.

DeBrincat, though, had seen enough. He told the Senators he wasn’t open to signing a long-term deal, so Dorion traded him to Detroit. Talbot wasn’t retained, either. Suddenly the Senators were in the swing of significant turnover from seemingly every corner — following Melynk’s death in 2022, the franchise was sold in June 2023 to businessman Michael Andlauer. A new era — at least in that respect — had begun. But it was a bumpy beginning.

Near the start of the 2023-24 season, Ottawa was reprimanded by the league and docked a first-round draft pick for their invalidated 2021 trade involving Evgenii Dadonov and the Anaheim Ducks. That punishment cost Dorion his job in November 2023; Staios, who was Ottawa’s president of hockey operations at the time, took on GM duties, too.

The Senators’ on-ice performance was reprehensible amid the background drama. Their woeful 11-15 record put Smith out by December, to be replaced by former coach and team advisor Jacques Martin. Despite Ottawa’s depth of young talents, the Senators slumped again to finish seventh in the Atlantic.

There were three key philosophical shifts thereafter that led them from the basement to the postseason, with the long-term belief that this is just the beginning of a new era of contention.


Ottawa trusted the process

Stutzle didn’t hold back after the Senators clinched their postseason berth. In fact, he probably spoke aloud what most of his teammates were thinking.

“We’ve been through some s— here,” Stutzle said, directly following that loss to Columbus. “Some tough years. I’m just really proud of the guys, how we’re all hanging in here. I don’t think there’s a team who deserves it more than us. I think we worked really hard this year.”

Ottawa’s current success wouldn’t have come about — or feel nearly so good — if it weren’t for a challenging recent history.

When Thomas Chabot debuted in 2016-17 with the Senators, they had missed the playoffs only four times since 1996-97. The young blueliner thought he would see plenty of postseason action in the NHL. Instead, it would take over 500 career games before Chabot was assured his first crack at Game 83.

“You’re not going to see me smile a whole lot after a loss,” Chabot joked when the Senators secured their spot, “but, man, it feels great.”

Tkachuk can relate. The Senators captain has more than 500 pro games under his belt and over 400 career points. He’s tried willing Ottawa to the postseason in prior seasons, and they’ve come up frustratingly short. Tkachuk’s commitment to the Senators was never in doubt though — something he doubled down on when trade rumors began circulating earlier this season.

The Senators were still clawing their way up the standings in early February when Tkachuk found himself linked by media reports to the New York Rangers.

Andlauer was furious, and even wanted the Rangers investigated for soft tampering with Ottawa’s top forward. Tkachuk let his play do the talking as he continued to lead the Senators up front. The whole situation though was an unneeded distraction for the Senators, and directly opposed to an internal strategy focused entirely on leveraging its young core towards that elusive playoff return.

But those rising stars couldn’t get there alone. It’s veterans like Giroux and David Perron who have supported the club’s maturation with critical leadership. Giroux has been in the fold since signing as a free agent in 2022, proving he hadn’t lost a step by pumping in 35 goals and 79 points the following season. The 35-year-old has continued to play a considerable role in Ottawa’s offense, and keeps the group even-keeled when inevitable roadblocks crop up.

“Some games maybe we weren’t at our best. But we’ve been finding ways,” Giroux said. “When you’re not playing your best and you’re finding ways to win, that’s a good sign. You can just tell that everybody wants to play the right way. It’s fun to play that way.”

Giroux can also lean on past playoff experience — although he hasn’t had much of it in the last decade. Since the 2012-13 season in Philadelphia, Giroux has been to the postseason just five times, most recently as part of Florida’s 2021-22 campaign. And he’s never won a Stanley Cup.

Perron has, with St. Louis in 2019, along with a Cup Final run with Vegas the year prior. He knows what it takes to scale that mountain. And while it’s hard to predict the Senators will be making it all the way there this year, an initial stride towards that loftiest of goals is a crucial stage of Ottawa’s development.

“I’ve won [before], but I see other guys like Claude, and so many other guys [who haven’t],” Perron said. “You want to do it for them. You want them to experience a run, you want to give that experience to the younger players.”

Ottawa slowly, surely put themselves in position to do it now. The lean years toughened up the team’s top skaters. They won’t take this opportunity for granted. But they will want to expect that it becomes an annual event.


Ottawa found the right coach

The Senators needed a new voice to go along with their new owner and general manager. Travis Green — hired in May 2024 — was their guy.

It didn’t take long for Green to recognize Ottawa was ready to put its losing ways on the shelf.

“From day one, they were open-minded, and open to wanting to win badly,” Green said. “They’re open to coaching, and it’s the whole team. That’s not always the case.”

Green’s prior resume included just one other full-time head coaching role — with the Vancouver Canucks from 2017 to 2021 — and an interim head job closing out the New Jersey Devils‘ 2023-24 season.

He was referencing the Senators’ coachability after the club endured its most trying stretch of the season — a 5-8-1 run through November that could have torpedoed all hopes of playoff-level traction.

“[That] was a big part of our season,” Green said. “It’s one thing to say you’re open to coaching. It’s another thing to do it. Being able to have an honest conversation and players be open to hearing things they do not necessarily want to hear. But there are certain parts of every player’s game where they must be a little better. [Then they have to] agree with it, and then try to do it.”

In return, Green has earned praise from Ottawa’s front office for the way he’s steering the ship.

“The vision that Travis had, and how he’s been able to coach this group and turn it from where we were last year to be able to play the type of hockey to give ourselves a chance to make the playoffs [is huge],” Staios said.

It was how Green shifted Ottawa’s mindset — and installed a winning structure — that brought the organization’s playoff vision to life. Staios knew Green was capable of setting the Senators on a path towards winning hockey games. But lots of coaches can draw up the X’s and O’s. What has made Green special is how players received his messaging and actually implemented it — which is ultimately turning the tide for Ottawa.

“I know how badly they want to win,” Green said. “You don’t always get into the playoffs, but being on the side of our room, I truly felt like this group was willing to do whatever it took to take the next step. Now we’ve gotten there.”


Ottawa fixed its defense, and got the right goaltending

This was the Senators’ pièce de résistance: a full-scale buy-in to the defensive side of their game.

Ottawa had to lock in at both ends of the ice if they were ever going to see the playoffs. Green provided a blueprint. The players went to work seeing it through.

“I’ve learned a lot from [Green], especially [with] the defensive side of things,” Tkachuk said. “It’s easy to see now when he shows the mistakes that we’ve made and how we can correct them.”

Again, it goes back to Ottawa’s patience. Because the Senators didn’t start this season as defensive stalwarts. Ottawa opened the season with an 11-12-2 record, sitting 26th overall and eighth in goals against per game (3.20).

Emotions ran high, and often boiled over. But Green stuck to his philosophies and stood behind his players as they absorbed what he was trying to teach them. The faith Green had that he could turn Stutzle, Tkachuk & Co. into 200-foot players was a complement to his belief in their abilities. The Senators’ core only needed to apply itself.

“He’s got a unique way of being hard and holding players accountable,” Staios said of Green. “But also developing that relationship and having a real, honest, open line of communication.”

Eventually, Ottawa was on track. In the next 25 games from early December through January, the Senators showed true progress on the defensive end, going 15-8-2 and giving up the second fewest goals per game in the league (2.20).

All told, Ottawa has improved dramatically. They went from allowing 2.34 goals per game at 5-on-5 last season to just 1.84 this season. The Sens have 21 wins this season where they were outshot by an opponent, tied for fourth most in the NHL. By comparison, that’s more than the Senators had their previous two seasons combined.

Ottawa had to be diligent defensively given they couldn’t always rely on offense to save the day. The Senators rank 22nd this season in scoring (2.89 goals per game) and are 30th in even-strength goals (131). The club’s 15th-ranked power play (22.8%) has come in handy on occasion.

Regardless, what Green is establishing in Ottawa isn’t a one-and-done system. This is a foundation for how the Senators can be reborn as a team that anticipates a postseason run each year. And Ottawa’s defensive upswing is owed not just to Green and the skaters up front, but to the Senators’ (finally) reliable goaltending.

Ottawa had churned through their share of goalies during that seven-year playoff drought. Craig Anderson made the most starts (133) in that span before departing in 2020. There were failed experiments with Matt Murray and Talbot. Anton Forsberg (with 130 starts) did his best to fill the voids and Joonas Korpisalo had a short, unsuccessful stint with the Senators too.

It wasn’t until June that Ottawa reeled in the right No. 1. Staios brokered a deal with Boston to bring on Linus Ullmark, and Ullmark immediately signed a four-year extension to affirm his own commitment to the organization.

Ullmark had just won a Vezina Trophy in 2023 and shared the William M. Jennings Trophy that same season with Bruins’ teammate Jeremy Swayman. That Boston decided to back Swayman as their guy going forward and not Ullmark was all the better for Ottawa; notably, the Senators are in the playoffs this season while Boston is in line for a top-5 draft pick.

Ullmark endured injury issues, but emerged as a bona fide stalwart compared to what Ottawa has been used to in the crease. Last season, the Senators boasted a collective .879 save percentage. This season, Ullmark has a 24-14-3 record, with a .911 SV% and 2.67 goals-against average. That’s the third most wins ever by a goaltender in his first full season with Ottawa. And Ullmark has been a terrific partner to Forsberg, who has seen his own stats improve this season as well (10-12-2, .904 SV% and 2.66 GAA).

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Linus Ullmark fully extends to make a terrific glove save

Linus Ullmark dives and catches the puck to prevent a goal against the Bruins.

Now Ullmark wants the Senators’ tandem to excel in a playoff scene. The veteran has his own memories of long playoff-less stretches from a seven-year run with the Buffalo Sabres. And while Ullmark did get to experience hockey’s second season in three consecutive years with Boston, he still commiserates with Ottawa teammates who are just stepping on that stage now.

“I’m happy now that the guys now that have been there for a long time,” Ullmark said. “Like [Chabot] and [Tkachuk], for example, to have been there the longest, and now have an opportunity to play really meaningful games and get into a position where you can battle for the Cup.”

Ottawa may not hoist Lord Stanley’s chalice this season, or in years to come. The point is that they’re now officially in the fight. That’s all Chabot wanted when he arrived in Ottawa, to be a player — rather than spectator — of late spring hockey.

At long last for the Senators, that dream has officially come to life.

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Back in NHL, Hart debuts for Vegas after acquittal

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Back in NHL, Hart debuts for Vegas after acquittal

LAS VEGAS — Goalie Carter Hart, one of five 2018 Canada world junior hockey players acquitted of sexual assault in July, made his first NHL appearance in nearly two years Tuesday night and received an enthusiastic reaction from Golden Knights fans during pregame introductions.

Hart certainly received the loudest response before Vegas’ home game against Chicago, and if there were any boos, they were difficult to hear.

Some fans also held signs supportive of Hart.

Hart was the first of those five players to agree to an NHL contract. The league ruled those players were eligible to sign deals beginning Oct. 15 and to play starting Dec. 1. Hart signed a two-year, $4 million contract and has been working with the club’s American Hockey League affiliate in Henderson, Nevada.

After he agreed to sign, Hart read a statement to reporters that, in part, said he wanted “to show the community my true character and who I am and what I’m about.”

Hart was asked Monday what steps he has taken to fulfill that pledge.

“There’s been a few things we’ve talked about,” Hart said. “We did a thing there in Henderson helping out the homeless. There’s some things we’ve talked about throughout the season. Whatever I can do to help, I’m happy to help.”

Giving Hart his first start at home could help ease him into what could be a rocky reception around the league. After facing the Blackhawks, Vegas goes on a five-game trip against Eastern Conference teams, including a Dec. 11 stop at Hart’s former Philadelphia team.

He worked in Henderson on getting back into NHL game shape. Hart appeared in three games and went 1-2.

“I’ve worked my [butt] off to get back to this point,” Hart said. “For me, the key is preparation and I’ve done everything I can to be prepared.”

It was a tough start against the Blackhawks. Less than a minute after the Golden Knights scored, Chicago’s Oliver Moore found the back of the net against Hart on the Blackhawks’ second shot on goal.

He gave up a second-period goal when he left the crease to clear the puck. His pass instead went directly to Tyler Bertuzzi, who scored over Hart and defenseman Noah Hanifin.

But Hart made 15 saves through the first two periods and the score was 2-2 entering intermission.

The 27-year-old last played in an NHL game Jan. 20, 2024, for Philadelphia. Hart played six seasons for the Flyers, going 96-93-29 with a .906 save percentage and 2.94 goals-against average.

“The purpose of Henderson was to get him back into live reps,” Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy said. “He can practice with us with NHL shooters, but traffic around the net, screens, all that stuff is sometimes hard to replicate, especially when you haven’t played that often. We’re less worried about the results, more getting reps, getting used to that stuff.”

The Golden Knights could use the help in net, especially with starting goalie Adin Hill on injured reserve because of a lower-body injury and his return possibly weeks away. Akira Schmid has received the majority of the work with Hill out and is 9-2-4 with a .896 save percentage and 2.51 GAA.

Vegas had lost four straight games before defeating San Jose 4-3 on Saturday night.

Cassidy said the upcoming schedule works in the Golden Knights’ favor in terms of not overloading the goalies.

“Akira’s played well, too, so we have to keep mindful he has to stay sharp,” Cassidy said. “So I’m sure you’ll see a lot of both goalies, but Carter’s waited a long time to play, so he’s definitely going to get his share of starts.”

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Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU

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Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.

We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.

Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).

That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.

The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”

That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.

But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.

The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.

Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.

It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).

That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.

Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.

But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.

Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)

And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?

This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.

Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…


We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.

For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.

But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?

Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.

As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)

Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better

Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better

Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?

That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.

This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.


A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.

Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).

The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”

What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.

Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.

Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.

We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…

  • SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.

  • FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.

  • Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.

  • FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.

So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?

We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.

(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)

But, speaking of Alabama…


4. Championship game participants

Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?

This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).

OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.

So, what happens if Alabama loses?

The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.

Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.

It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.


Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.

But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.

Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State

Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy

Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF

Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five

Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd

FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th

There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.

Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.

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CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

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CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

Welcome to the party, James Madison.

With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.

If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.

At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.

Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.

A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.

At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.

Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt


Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.

The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin


Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.

Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia


ACC

Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.

Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest


Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.


Group of 5

Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.

Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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