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Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing data

Bitcoin’s spot price could take a hit after the US Federal Reserve reported some of the worst manufacturing data in recent history, according to several cryptocurrency analysts.

On April 17, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index — a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers — reported the sharpest declines in overall business activity since 2020. 

The data puts Bitcoin (BTC) “under short term pressure,” researchers at Bitunix, a crypto exchange, said in a post on the X platform. They added that Bitcoin could still see a “strong comeback” if its price holds above $83,000 per coin.  

As of April 18, Bitcoin has been trading at approximately $84,000 per coin, according to data from Google Finance.

The Federal Reserve’s bearish report comes as factories brace for the impact of US President Donald Trump’s plans to impose sweeping tariffs on US imports, potentially raising production costs for manufacturers.

“[I]ndicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all fell and turned negative… suggest[ing] subdued expectations for growth over the next six months,” the report said

Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing data
Source: Felix Jauvin

Related: Trade tensions to speed institutional crypto adoption — Execs

Bad omen for crypto?

Analysts said the combination of rising prices and slowing production could deal a blow to financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Rising prices limit central banks’ ability to support markets in a downturn. 

“Economic activity is falling off a cliff and any activity that remains, the prices are going up,” Felix Jauvin, a Blockworks macroeconomic analyst, said in a post on the X platform. 

It’s an “[a]bsolute worst scenario for policy makers here especially with no meaningful idea of how permanent tariffs will be,” he added.

Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing data
Six-month outlook for key manufacturing indicators. Source: Derek Thompson

However, Bitcoin has been more resilient to recent macroeconomic shocks than stocks or other cryptocurrencies, Binance said in an April research report. 

Since Trump announced his tariff plans on April 2, Bitcoin has traded roughly flat after initially declining but more than 10%, Google Finance data shows. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 — an index of US stocks — is still down by around 7%. 

“Even in the wake of recent tariff announcements, BTC has shown some signs of resilience, holding steady or rebounding on days when traditional risk assets faltered,” Binance said. 

Trump initially sought to impose double-digit levies on virtually all foreign goods but later paused planned tariffs on certain countries. 

He still wants to place high taxes on many Chinese imports, causing concerns among crypto executives who fear a trade war could harm blockchain networks. 

Magazine: Crypto ‘more taboo than OnlyFans,’ says Violetta Zironi, who sold song for 1 BTC

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Texas Representative Gill under fire over late $500K Bitcoin disclosures

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Texas Representative Gill under fire over late 0K Bitcoin disclosures

Texas Representative Gill under fire over late 0K Bitcoin disclosures

Texas Representative Brandon Gill faces scrutiny after filing late disclosures for $500,000 in Bitcoin trades, as questions over timing and STOCK Act violations arise.

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Blockchain Group adds $68M in Bitcoin to corporate treasury

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Blockchain Group adds M in Bitcoin to corporate treasury

Blockchain Group adds M in Bitcoin to corporate treasury

Paris-based Blockchain Group acquired $68 million in Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 1,471 BTC amid rising institutional interest in crypto treasury strategies.

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AI, robots, lasers and gap years in armed forces: Key details as UK to become ‘battle ready’

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AI, robots, lasers and gap years in armed forces: Key details as UK to become 'battle ready'

The UK must rebuild its military and get the whole country ready for war as the threat of conflict with a nuclear power like Russia or China is real, a major defence review warns.

It described what might happen should a hostile state start a fight, saying this could include missile strikes against military sites and power stations across the UK, sabotage of railway lines and other critical infrastructure and attacks on the armed forces.

Politics latest: Britain must be ‘battle-ready’, says PM

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PM challenged on NATO, defence and Gaza

In a devastating verdict on the state of Britain’s defences, the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) said today’s armed forces are “not currently optimised for warfare”, with inadequate stockpiles of weapons, poor recruitment and crumbling morale.

“The international chessboard has been tipped over,” a team of three experts that led the review wrote in a foreword to their 140-page document.

“In a world where the impossible today is becoming the inevitable tomorrow, there can be no complacency about defending our country.”

British soldiers from the 16 Air Assault Brigade training in North Macedonia. Pic: AP
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British soldiers from the 16 Air Assault Brigade training in North Macedonia. Pic: AP

Sir Keir Starmer, who commissioned the review, described a “new era” of threat that required a “new era for defence and security”.

“Every part of society, every citizen of this country, has a role to play because we have to recognise that things have changed,” the prime minister said.

The review made a list of more than 60 recommendations to enable the UK to “pivot to a new way of war”.

They include:

  • Increasing the size of the army by 3,000 soldiers to 76,000 troops in the next parliament. The review also aims to boost the “lethality” of the Army ten-fold, using drones and other technology.
  • A 20% expansion in volunteer reserve forces but only when funding permits and likely not until the 2030s.
  • Reviving a force of tens of thousands of veterans to fight in a crisis. The government used to run annual training for the so-called Strategic Reserve in the Cold War but that no longer happens.
  • Embracing new technologies such as artificial intelligence, robots and lasers. The paper said the UK must develop ways to defend against emerging threats such as biological weapons, warning of “pathogens and other weapons of mass destruction”.
  • The possibility of the UK buying warplanes that could carry American nuclear bombs to bolster the NATO alliance’s nuclear capabilities. The review said: “Defence should commence discussions with the United States and NATO on the potential benefits and feasibility of enhanced UK participation in NATO’s nuclear mission.”
  • The expansion of a cadet force of children by 30% and offering a “gap year” to people interested in sampling military life.
  • New investment in long-range weapons, submarines, munitions factories and cyber warfare capabilities.

General Sir Richard Barrons, part of the review team and a former senior military officer, described the vision as “the most profound change” to UK defences in 150 years.

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Strategic Defence Review: What does it mean?

But there were some notable gaps – likely caused by limited finances.

This includes only a brief mention of bolstering the UK’s ability to defend against cruise and ballistic missiles – a key weakness but one that would be very expensive to fix.

Earlier, Sir Keir said the review was a “blueprint to make Britain safer and stronger, a battle-ready armour-clad nation, with the strongest alliances and the most advanced capabilities, equipped for the decades to come”.

Defence Secretary John Healey, writing in a foreword to the document, said “up to” £1bn would be invested in “homeland air and missile defence” as well as the creation of a new cyber and electromagnetic warfare command.

The review was drawn up with the expectation that defence spending would rise to 2.5% of GDP this parliament – up from around 2.3% now – and then to 3% by 2034. The government has pledged to hit 2.5% by 2027 but is yet to make 3% a cast iron commitment.

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The reviewers said their recommendations could be delivered in 10 years if that spending target is reached but they gave a strong signal that they would like this to happen much sooner.

“As we live in such turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster,” the team said.

“The plan we have put forward can be accelerated for either greater assurance or for mobilisation of defence in a crisis.”

The review described the threat posed by Russia as “immediate and pressing”.

It said China, by contrast, is a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”.

It pointed to Beijing’s growing missile capability that can reach the UK and said the Chinese military’s nuclear arsenal is expected to double to 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.

The other two reviewers were Lord George Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary, and Fiona Hill, a Russia expert and former foreign policy adviser to Donald Trump.

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The review team warned the post Cold War-era of relative peace has ended and a time of contest, tension and conflict has returned.

Adding to the pressure, the US – by far the most powerful member of the NATO alliance – is focusing more on the threat it sees from China.

“Changes in the strategic context mean that NATO allies may be drawn into war with – or be subject to coercion by – another nuclear armed state,” the review said.

“With the US clear that the security of Europe is no longer its primary international focus, the UK and European allies must step up their efforts”.

The review set out how defence is not only the responsibility of the armed forces because countries – not just the professional military – fight wars.

It said: “Everyone has a role to play and a national conversation on how we do it is required… As the old saying goes, ‘If you want peace, prepare for war’.”

Sky News and Tortoise will launch a new podcast series – The Wargame – on 10 June that simulates a Russian attack on the UK to test Britain’s defences, with former ministers and military chiefs playing the part of the British government.

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