LOS ANGELES — Rob Ryan might be as relaxed as he has ever been.

The longtime defensive coach walks out on the balcony of USC‘s John McKay Center, his alabaster white hair flowing in the slight breeze that frames an idyllic summer afternoon in Los Angeles, and as always, he is not lacking for words.

“I’m totally different than most people,” he said with a chuckle. “And I don’t care.”

Even Ryan’s robust laugh — a kind of deep guffaw that fills any room inside or out — carries with it a tone that projects his breadth of experience: nine NFL teams, five power conference programs, two Super Bowl rings and hundreds of stories.

The son of legendary coach Buddy Ryan and brother of former NFL head coach Rex Ryan has held clipboards and drawn up defensive formations everywhere from the Arizona desert to the Atlantic coast, from Tennessee State to the New England Patriots, Hutchinson Community College to the Dallas Cowboys.

However, college football — USC, of all places — is different. This, the 62-year-old Ryan admits, is unexpected, even for him.

“I honestly never thought about it,” Ryan says. “I was happy in pro football.”

His eyes dart down for a second, and he remembers how he ended up here — wearing USC colors, living in a downtown L.A. apartment and coaching 18-year-old linebackers — more than 25 years after he last coached in college football, nearly 40 years from when he started in this profession.

“I can remember parking the car here [at USC] and walking up,” Ryan says. “I thought, ‘Man, there’s no way I’m ever going to take this job.'”

THE LAST TIME Ryan patrolled the college football sidelines, Peyton Manning was coming off his rookie season in the NFL and Ricky Williams had just run all over the sport on his way to the 1998 Heisman Trophy.

Ryan, then the defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State, remembers Williams’ prowess, but more than that, he remembers how his defense countered it.

“You can ask Ricky,” he said. “He didn’t win the Heisman against us.”

A year before Ryan made his way to Stillwater in 1996, Oklahoma State’s defense was one of the worst in the country. Texas had walloped the Pokes 71-14, and Ryan remembers grabbing tapes of the defense and spending countless hours in a room with his dad, trying to remedy it.

“Me and my dad watch ’em every day after we work on the farm,” Ryan said. “And he’s drawing stuff up on napkins, ‘Well, maybe you can do this.’ I’m like, sure. But I see one of his napkins, he’s [telling me] how he could run the wide tackle six. I go ‘What the hell is that? That’s not the wide tackle of six.’ But I did use them. We beat ’em 55 to 10 the next year. There you go. That was a good napkin.”

Over the course of the 1997 and 1998 seasons, Williams had only four games where he didn’t rush for over 100 yards — two of them were against Ryan’s OSU defense.

“I remember that,” Ryan said.

To describe Ryan’s brain as a football encyclopedia would be an understatement. The wealth of knowledge is voluminous and vast. It spans decades, eras, coaching trees and schemes. His coaching career has included being up close with Bill Belichick, the NFL head coaching legend who hired Ryan in 2000 after his college stint as the New England Patriots‘ linebackers coach. to now witnessing Belichick as North Carolina‘s head coach.

“When I was a coordinator in college back 25 years ago, we just had to stop the run,” Ryan said. “Nobody could throw the ball. Well now everybody can throw it, and with all the space there, you have to have an unbelievable plan. Whatever it is, you got to be able to adapt.”

A lot has changed in the sport since, both in the pros and in the college ranks. Through it all, Ryan has remained unabashedly himself, bouncing with a contagious joy thanks to a job where, as Ryan says, “you don’t have to be anything different but yourself.”

“He’s the smartest guy in the room, but he doesn’t want you to know that,” Rex Ryan said. “He’ll work his ass off, outwork every single person in that school, any school. He’ll put every one of them motherf—ers to sleep.”

Perhaps no one hypes Rob up more than his twin brother, Rex, whose coaching history is just as broad while also featuring a stint as an NFL head coach. It’s a career apex that Rob never reached, but according to Rex, what makes Rob such an effective position coach or coordinator is the fact that he has never been interested in that top job.

“He’s not looking for somebody else’s job. This guy’s there to advance the head coach’s plan and to be right there, to be right hand man to D’anton [Lynn], and that’s exactly what he’s going to do,” Rex, now an analyst for ESPN, said. “And he’s just one hell of a f—ing guy. That’s the thing. And if you can’t get along with him, you’re a f—ing jerkoff. Simple as that. You’re a f—ing a–hole.”

As self-assured as Rob is now, even he can admit that this hasn’t always been the case.

WHEN THE CALL came from a familiar voice, Ryan was facing a situation he knew all too well.

The Las Vegas Raiders, with whom he had been working as a senior defensive assistant since 2022, were undergoing a coaching change after the franchise fired Antonio Pierce. While other coaches might have fretted, Ryan — who took the USC job a week before Pete Carroll was hired with the Raiders — wasn’t too anxious.

“When I was young, man, I couldn’t handle it. That was super hard,” Ryan said of his early firings. “It was pressure. You just feel it, man. It’s a mountain. … It destroyed me. I couldn’t enjoy work. I couldn’t come to work and enjoy it. I couldn’t. It was hard. I was so worried. And it affected me off the field too.”

Ryan was not in a rush to find his next stop, but at USC, the program’s previous linebackers coach, Matt Entz, had left to take the head coaching job at Fresno State. Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn — fresh off his first season in the position — went outside the box.

When Lynn was a defensive analyst on the Buffalo Bills in 2016, his father Anthony was the interim head coach and offensive coordinator, and Ryan was the assistant head coach for defense. Then, in 2021, when a 31-year-old Lynn was hired as the Baltimore Ravens safeties coach, the team’s inside linebackers coach invited Lynn to crash at his house for a few months. That coach was 57-year-old Ryan.

“We go way back,” Ryan said. “He’s an old roommate.”

Lynn and USC head coach Lincoln Riley wanted someone with experience who could also add a little extra juice to the staff, a certain kind of appeal that couldn’t be found in an up-and-coming college position coach. So Lynn rang Ryan and made his pitch.

“As we talk about building our scheme, just having someone with all that experience to bounce ideas off of has been huge,” Lynn said in a recent interview. “And for our guys, they get a chance to just get exposed to what it is to have an NFL position coach, and they’re getting coached as if they were in the NFL.”

Even though Ryan arrived on campus for his interviews with skepticism, he was quickly swayed by Riley and Lynn, whom Ryan has repeatedly referred to as a Mike Tomlin in the making.

“I’m like, ‘Man, this is awesome.’ I talked to D’Anton again and then talked to Lincoln. I’m like, ‘Man, I’m going to do this. I’m just going to take a chance,'” Ryan said. “And I have no regrets. I’ve absolutely loved it. It’s like a breath of fresh air. It’s getting started again. I mean, I’m new again.”

Ryan does not shy away from the fact that his own particular situation afforded him an invaluable opportunity growing up. As the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals in 1994, Buddy Ryan was the one who gave Rob and his brother Rex their first big breaks as NFL position coaches that season.

“We were young coaches, we thought we were good, but he had to take a chance, and he hired us,” Rob Ryan said. “People screamed nepotism, and it was nepotism! There was no question, but we were great, and we were ready. Once we got there, we were ready. But we had to have a chance. Somebody had to give us a chance.”

It’s not too shocking then that Ryan finds himself in his father’s role — in the latter stages of his career with a son who has a business degree from Clemson but can’t seem to shake the family bug. This time, it’s Rob who wants to give his son, Matthew, the chance to give coaching a real shot.

“It’s the family business. We probably can’t do anything else, but we damn sure can coach, and that’s our niche, that’s our life,” Rex said. “We never got in the business to make money, but now, f—, you make a ton of money. We certainly didn’t get in the business to do that.”

While talking to Riley and Lynn about the position, Rob Ryan said that the opportunity — not just for him, but for Matthew to become a defensive analyst on staff — was one he could not pass up.

“It’s not really for my growth, cause I’m not going anywhere,” Ryan said. “I want to be a part of something great, but it’s for Matthew to learn. … This is the perfect place for that. But I mean, it’s for me too. Look around, I’m having more fun than anybody else.”

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RYAN REMEMBERS WALKING into a team meeting with the Cardinals back in 1994 and being appalled at just how his dad was running things. In short, Ryan explained, the way a former master sergeant in the Korean War would run a team meeting.

“It’s like the things he was saying was like, oh hell, HR would have him out of there in two seconds. He had no problem having a player do anything,” Ryan said. “I thought, ‘God Almighty, I’m not going to do that. I can’t do that.’ So I realized I needed to be genuine to myself.”

Over the past 30 years, Ryan’s personality has crystallized into a coaching style that runs on a type of magnetic zeal that isn’t affected by game-to-game results.

“He has the most energy every single day, and he is also the oldest on the staff,” Lynn said.

His effervescence, players say, is contagious. He doesn’t connect by trying to relate to players 40-plus years his junior as much as he tries to find common ground in the game they’re trying to excel at, the game that he’s still enamored with to this day.

“He’s got a million stories, lived every one of them,” Rex said. “There’s also a confidence and a thing where nothing’s going to intimidate him. He’s not afraid of the f—ing devil.”

Position meetings, though chock-full of traditional insight and strategy, often include an open session where Rob leans into what makes him, well, him.

“He’ll just have a story for us, just a random story, every day, he’ll have us dying laughing,” Madden said. “It may be something that happened a week ago or something 20 years ago”

USC’s linebackers are already privy to not just Ryan’s storytelling, but also the kind of confidence he has given them.

“He definitely wants us to just be who we are,” freshman linebacker Desman Stephens II said. “He talks about how we’ve been playing football our whole life and we have instincts that are helpful to our game. So he just allows us to go out there and play, not carefree but loose.”

“Even though he’s old-school, even though he’s accomplished a lot in this game, he still has an open ear,” redshirt junior linebacker Anthony Beavers Jr. said. “I think he’s forever learning and that’s unique.”

Ryan likes to say that he teaches football more than he coaches it, an approach bolstered by the many stops he has had throughout his career. But he is also supercharged by what he refers to as an affinity for the game that he wants to not just convey, but impress upon his players.

“I think I love what I’m doing. I think it shows,” Ryan said. “I want ’em to love football. I don’t want ’em to dread it. I don’t want ’em to come to work like it’s in a factory. I’ve worked in factories, but I want ’em to love the game. I think my style is: I’m going to have more fun than anybody on that field.”

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TO HEAR RYAN speak about football is to be met with someone who has known no other life. Anything prior to his time as a coach, even the years he spent as a defensive end at Southwestern Oklahoma State University alongside Rex, feel like an inconsequential fable at this point. All that matters is what has transpired inside locker rooms and in between the hash marks over the course of the past four decades — good or bad — and the way that he has held on.

“No one’s more used to being fired than me,” Rob Ryan said. “I get fired. At least I was myself. So I can live with that.”

It all raises the question: How long will Ryan keep doing this? And when will he know to pry himself away from the very thing that has defined him?

“He will probably be there 10 years, he loves to coach that much,” Rex said. “He’ll be a guy they’ll have to drag his ass off the football field.”

Rob could have stayed in the NFL if he wanted to, Rex said, but the fact that he didn’t makes Rex believe Rob’s committed to USC for the foreseeable future, or at the very least, “until they tell him to leave.”

“This is it for us,” Rob Ryan, whose wife is from California, said for the both of them. “This is our last move until we walk off in the sunset.”

In this very moment, as the sun fades away and washes every brick-laden building on the USC campus in an orange hue, Rob isn’t ready to go just yet.

“When I retire, cool, I’ll be retired. I’ll probably be the happiest guy in the world in retirement,” he said. “But right now, I’m the happiest guy in the world still doing this.”

Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.

This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.

What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)

Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)

ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)

Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.

It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.

After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.

Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?

How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.

Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.

National League

Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)

Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)

ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)

Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.

Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.

On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.

How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.

Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.

Cy Young

American League

Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)

Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)

ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)

Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.

Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.

The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.

How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.

Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.

National League

Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)

Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)

ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)

Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.

Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.

Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.

It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.

So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.

How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.

Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)

Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox

ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)

Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”

You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.

At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.

You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.

How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.

Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.

National League

Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)

Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)

ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)

Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:

1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)

The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)

All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.

Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?

How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.

Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.

Manager of the Year

American League

Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)

Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)

Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.

How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.

Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.

National League

Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)

Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)

Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.

Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.

How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.

Prediction: A Murph runaway.

Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.

This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.

What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)

Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)

ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)

Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.

It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.

After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.

Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?

How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.

Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.

National League

Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)

Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)

ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)

Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.

Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.

On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.

How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.

Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.

Cy Young

American League

Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)

Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)

ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)

Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.

Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.

The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.

How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.

Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.

National League

Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)

Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)

ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)

Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.

Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.

Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.

It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.

So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.

How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.

Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)

Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox

ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)

Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”

You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.

At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.

You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.

How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.

Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.

National League

Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)

Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)

ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)

Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:

1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)

The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)

All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.

Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?

How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.

Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.

Manager of the Year

American League

Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)

Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)

Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.

How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.

Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.

National League

Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)

Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)

Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.

Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.

How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.

Prediction: A Murph runaway.