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Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle

Bitcoin holders are celebrating one year since the 2024 Bitcoin halving by praising BTC’s resilience amid a global trade war and suggesting an accelerated market cycle due to a growing institutional presence.

The 2024 Bitcoin halving reduced block rewards from 6.25 Bitcoin (BTC) to 3.125 BTC, slashing new BTC issuance in half.

Despite rising concerns over a global trade war and escalating tariff tensions between the United States and China, BTC has climbed more than 33% since April 2024, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle
BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

“So, even though Bitcoin’s showing resilience, I think the mix of past experiences, economic uncertainty, and this selling pressure is keeping investors on the sidelines, waiting for a stronger green light before they jump in,” said Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at asset tokenization platform Brickken.

Cardozo added that institutional investment from firms such as Strategy and Tether could speed up Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle. He added:

“For the 2024 halving in May, that puts the bottom around Q3 this year and a peak mid-2026, but I think we might see things move it a bit sooner because the market’s more mature now with more liquidity.”

However, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains tied to broader monetary policy, the analyst added. He said a US Federal Reserve rate cut in May or June may “pump more money into the system and push Bitcoin up faster.”

The halving is a built-in feature of the Bitcoin network that assures Bitcoin’s scarcity, which is considered one of BTC’s defining monetary characteristics.

Related: Crypto, stocks enter ‘new phase of trade war’ as US-China tensions rise

ETFs and institutions fuel faster cycle

Institutional adoption and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may be contributing to a shorter market cycle, according to Vugar Usi Zade, chief operating officer at Bitget exchange.

Continued institutional buying, including by Bitcoin ETFs, paired with Bitcoin’s rising scarcity, may accelerate Bitcoin’s rise to new highs, he told Cointelegraph.

“With growing scarcity triggered by the halving, Bitcoin will likely retest its all-time high if it breaches the $90,000 mark in the coming weeks,” Usi Zade said. “While the halving offers a good basis for growth based on demand and scarcity, the timeline for impact on price can vary over time.”

He noted that Bitcoin’s growth remains closely tied to traditional financial markets and investor sentiment.

Related: Bitcoin speculative appetite declines as investors seek safety

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $109,000 on Jan. 20, 273 days after the 2024 Bitcoin halving, signaling an accelerated market cycle.

Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle
Source: Jelle

In comparison, it took Bitcoin 546 days to reach an all-time high after the 2021 halving, and 518 days after the 2017 halving, according to data shared by popular crypto trader Jelle, in an April 8 X post.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

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Plaid Cymru leader was ‘turned down’ for meeting with PM, he claims

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Plaid Cymru leader was 'turned down' for meeting with PM, he claims

Calls for a meeting with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have been snubbed by No 10, the leader of Plaid Cymru has told Sky News.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, who has served as leader of the Welsh nationalist party since June 2023, is looking likely to become Wales’s first minister next May, but when he asked to meet with Sir Keir after his election last year, he says he was turned down.

Speaking with Sky News’ political correspondent Liz Bates, Mr ap Iorwerth said he had “never” had a conversation with the prime minister but it was “not because I haven’t tried”.

He added: “When I contacted the prime minister to ask for a meeting, after his election last year, I was turned down and it was passed on to the Secretary of State for Wales.

“People can read into that what they want.

“I’ve spoken very openly about wanting to have a constructive relationship with the UK prime minister.”

The former journalist said in his reporting days he had not interviewed Sir Keir and now, in politics, their “paths had never crossed” but he said he felt it was “important”.

More on Eluned Morgan

“I have certainly asked if we could meet. And that is certainly something that I would still love to happen,” he said.

Mr ap Iorwerth said a conversation would be key because if he became Welsh first minister, there would be “serious negotiations on serious issues around funding for Wales – on investing in infrastructure in Wales, on the future of how we’re able to influence and use our natural resources in Wales”.

“So I want to have that constructive relationship,” he said.

In an apparent nod to current Labour first minister Eluned Morgan, Mr ap Iorwerth said Sir Keir would be in “no doubt” that his loyalty “would always be to the people of Wales”.

He said: “I won’t be pulling my punches in order to save the Labour Party embarrassment.

“I’ll be really laying out what’s in the interest of Wales. And that’s, I think, a fundamentally different relationship. But it has to be, and I want it to be, a constructive one.”

The next Senedd election is May 2026, when voters in Wales will elect 96 members for the first time – an increase of more than 50% from the current 60.

Welsh politics has traditionally been dominated by Labour.

Labour’s grip on Wales sliding?

Welsh Labour MPs have been the largest group sent to Westminster in every general election since 1922 – and the party has been in government in the country for more than a quarter of a century.

But if the polls are accurate, Labour’s long-standing grip on politics in Wales is fading.

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are running almost neck and neck, while Labour trails significantly.

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Rhun ap Iorwerth: Is the man on the brink of power in Wales ready to govern?

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Rhun ap Iorwerth: Is the man on the brink of power in Wales ready to govern?

Politics has always been unforgiving, but never more so than now.

So, speaking to the man who is on the brink of power in Wales, raises the question of whether he is really ready for what’s he’s taking on.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is a former journalist so he knows how to present himself, but much bigger challenges are coming, and fast.

At next May’s Senedd elections, he is narrowly on course to become first minister, according to current polls.

Mr ap Iorwerth visits local businesses on Ystrad Mynach high street. Pic: PA
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Mr ap Iorwerth visits local businesses on Ystrad Mynach high street. Pic: PA

But before that he faces the same battle as leaders across the UK – how to beat Reform, who are running his party very close.

It’s not clear he has a different strategy to any other politician, as he condemns their politics as divisive and tries instead to present a positive vision of unity and more public spending.

Maybe he has a better chance than most though as he can at least point the finger of blame firmly elsewhere – Westminster.

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That leads to his second big problem of how to get anything from a Labour prime minister when you lead an opposition party.

In his conference speech he criticised Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan for being unable to influence Sir Keir Starmer.

But Mr ap Iorwerth later revealed to Sky News that he’s never even spoken to the prime minister, and when a meeting was requested he was offered the Secretary of State for Wales instead.

If he does become first minister he will have to walk the difficult line of fostering a privately productive relationship while still criticising in public.

Looming over all of this is the question of Welsh independence.

Read more from Sky News:
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It has been the party’s driving force for a century but it’s now been shelved for at least one term in office.

Mr ap Iorwerth says it’s because they need to lay the groundwork, have a consultation on the process and bring the public with them.

The truth is that the Welsh economy is so reliant on the rest of the UK that separation would be difficult, to say the least.

Figuring out how to keep pursuing their core purpose while acknowledging that reality could become corrosive.

Having said all that, he has a sense of momentum and purpose that many other politicians are lacking, driven by a strong sense of Welsh identity.

If he does get over the line in May, it will be this feeling that propels him, and he will need to draw on it again and again as he faces the tough times ahead.

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US Senate passes GAIN Act, prioritizing domestic AI and HPC chip sales

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US Senate passes GAIN Act, prioritizing domestic AI and HPC chip sales

US Senate passes GAIN Act, prioritizing domestic AI and HPC chip sales

The provision in the National Defense Authorization Act could create even more economic pain for the crypto mining industry if passed.

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