Solar and wind accounted for almost 98% of new US electrical generating capacity added in the first two months of 2025, according to new Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) data reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.

In FERC’s latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through February 28, 2025), FERC says 39 “units” of solar totaling 1,514 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in February, along with two units of wind (266 MW). They accounted for 95.3% of all new generating capacity added during the month. Natural gas provided the balance (87 MW).

For both January and February, renewables (6,309 MW) were 97.6% of new capacity, while natural gas (147 MW) provided just 2.3%, with another 0.2% coming from oil (11 MW).

Solar dominated February generating capacity

Solar accounted for 81.1% of all new generating capacity placed into service in February. It was 73.3% of new capacity added during the first two months of 2025.

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Recent solar additions include the 237.3 MW Fence Post Solar in Texas, the 150-MW Northern Orchard Solar in California, and the 135-MW Prairie Ronde Solar Project in Louisiana.

Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month for 18 consecutive months, since September 2023.

Solar + wind now almost 25% of US utility-scale generating capacity

New wind accounted for most of the balance (14.3%) of capacity additions in February. New wind capacity (1,568 MW) added in January and February combined was 70% more year-over-year (922 MW).

The new wind farms that came online in February were the 140.3-MW Pioneer DJ Wind in Texas and the 126-MW Downeast Wind in Maine.

The installed capacities of solar (10.7%) and wind (11.8%) are now each more than a tenth of the US total. Together, they’re almost one-fourth (22.5%) of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.

Further, approximately 30% of US solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that aren’t reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar and wind to more than 25% of the US total.

With the inclusion of hydropower (7.6%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%), renewables currently claim a 31.5% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables are now about one-third of total US generating capacity.

For perspective, a year ago, the mix of utility-scale renewables accounted for 29.3% of total installed generating capacity. Five years ago, it was 22.6%. Ten years ago, it was 16.9% (with more than half provided by hydropower). Thus, over the past decade, renewables’ share of US generating capacity has nearly doubled.

FERC’s 3-year solar + wind addition forecast

FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between March 2025 and February 2028 total 89,497 MW – an amount almost four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (22,890 MW), the second fastest growing resource. FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (1,323 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) but a decrease of 130 MW in biomass capacity.

The net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources would total 113,672 MW. There is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast.

Despite Trump’s big fossil fuel push, FERC is projecting that coal and oil will contract by 24,939 MW and 2,104 MW, respectively. Natural gas capacity would expand by 1,583 MW.

Thus, adjusting for the different capacity factors of gas (59.7%), wind (34.3%), and utility-scale solar (23.4%), electricity generated by the projected new solar capacity to be added in the coming three years should be at least 20 times greater than that produced by the new natural gas capacity, while wind’s new electrical output would eclipse gas by eight-fold.

If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by March 1, 2028, solar will account for nearly one-sixth (16.3%) of US installed utility-scale generating capacity. Wind would provide an additional one-eighth (12.7%) of the total. So each would be greater than coal (12.4%) and substantially more than either nuclear power (7.3%) or hydropower (7.2%).

Assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar is likely to surpass coal and wind within the next two years, placing solar in second place for installed generating capacity behind natural gas.

Renewables still on track to exceed natural gas in 3 years

The mix of all utility-scale (ie, >1 MW) renewables is now adding about two percentage points annually to its share of generating capacity. At that pace, by March 1, 2028, renewables would account for 37.6% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – nipping on the heels of natural gas (40.2%) – with solar and wind constituting more than three-quarters of the installed renewable energy capacity. If those trendlines continue, utility-scale renewable energy capacity should surpass natural gas in 2029 or sooner.

However, if small-scale solar is factored in, within three years, total US solar capacity (small-scale plus utility-scale) could approach 330 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would then exceed 40% of total installed capacity while natural gas’s share would drop to about 37%.

Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 220,985 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 67,811 MW of new wind, 9,788 MW of new hydropower, 201 MW of new geothermal, and 39 MW of new biomass. By contrast, net new natural gas capacity potentially in the three-year pipeline totals just 20,856 MW. Consequently, renewables’ share could be even greater by late winter 2028.

“The Trump Administration’s assault on wind and solar has not – at least not yet – had an appreciable impact on the rapid growth of renewable energy generating capacity,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Moreover, if FERC’s current projections materialize, the mix of renewables will surpass natural gas capacity before the end of President Trump’s time in the White House.” 

Electrek’s Take

Just three days ago, I reported on nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update, which revealed that nearly $8 billion in clean energy investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025. (E2’s cleaner net is wider than FERC’s and includes such things as EVs, battery storage, hydrogen, and grid and infrastructure projects.) Clean energy is growing, but Trump’s executive orders have still managed to slow its growth. Natural gas is still in the lead, but coal and oil still can’t touch renewables.

Read more: FERC: Solar + wind set for a strong 3-year run despite Trump’s sabotage

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