There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.
Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.
Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October.
One man continues to dominate the agenda.
Six months ago, delegates were wondering whether Donald Trump could win the November election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs. How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?
Image: Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
This time round, expect iterations of the same questions. Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?
Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?
Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in the tariffs set by the Trump administration.
That includes our own chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.
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13:27
Could Trump make a deal with UK?
Are we heading for a recession?
The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.
Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.
By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.
Others are less optimistic.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”
She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.
She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”
Image: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters
Don’t poke the bear
It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.
That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.
Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.
Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.
The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.
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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.
It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.
“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”
The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.
That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.
How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.
For decades he was the dissident backbencher, then unlikely Labour leader. She was a firebrand left-wing Labour MP with a huge online presence. To the left – on paper – it looked like the perfect combination.
Coupled with the support of four other independent MPs, it held the blueprints of a credible party. But ever since the launch of Your Party (working title) the left-wing movement has faced mockery and exasperation over its inability to look organised.
First, we learned Jeremy Corbyn’s team had been unaware of the exact timing of Zarah Sultana’s announcement that she would quit the Labour Party. Then a much bigger row emerged when she launched a membership drive linking people to sign up to the party without the full consent of the team.
It laid bare the holes in the structure of the party and pulled focus away from its core values of trying to be a party to counter Labour and Reform UK, while also drawing out some pretty robust language from their only woman MP calling the grouping a “sexist boys club”. It gave the impression that she was being sidelined by the four other male MPs behind the scenes.
This week, they tried to come together for the first time at a rally I attended in Liverpool and then, in quick succession, another event at The World Transformed conference the day after. But not everyone I spoke to who turned up to see the two heroes of the left found them all that convincing.
Jeremy Corbyn admitted to me that “there were some errors made about announcements and that caused a problem”. He said he was disappointed but that “we’re past that”.
Image: Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana take part in a discussion on Your Party at The World Transformed conference in Manchester. Pic: PA
Zarah Sultana said they were like Liam and Noel, who managed to “patch things up and have a very successful tour – we are doing the same”.
The problem is, it didn’t really explain what happened, or how they resolved things behind the scenes, and for some, it might have done too much damage already.
Layla signed up as a member when she first saw the link. It was the moment she had been waiting for after becoming frustrated with Labour. But she told me she found the ordeal “very unprofessional, very dishonest and messy”, and said she doesn’t want to be in a disorganised party and has lost trust in where her money will end up. She’s now thinking about the Greens. She said their leader, Zack Polanski “seemed like such a strong politician” with “a lot of charisma”.
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30:06
Jeremy Corbyn’s back – with Zarah Sultana and a new party. But is it a real threat to Labour, or just political theatre?
Since Polanski’s rise to power as leader, the Green Party has surged in popularity. According to a recent poll, they went up four points in just one week (following their conference). Voters, particularly on the left, seem to like his brand of “eco populism”.
While he has politely declined formally working in conjunction with Your Party publicly, he has said the “door is always open” to collaboration especially as he sees common goals between the two parties. Zarah Sultana said this weekend though that the Greens don’t describe themselves as socialists and that they support NATO which she has dubbed an “imperialist war machine”.
While newer coalitions may not be the problem for now, internal fissures might come sooner than they expect. Voters at the rally this weekend came with pretty clear concerns about some of the other independent MPs involved in Your Party.
Image: The two heroes of the left fell out over a row over their party’s paid membership system
I asked Ayoub Khan if he considered himself left-wing. A question that would solicit a simple answer in a crowd like this. But he said his view was very simple, that he is interested in fighting for equality, fairness and justice: ‘We all know that different wards, different constituencies have different priorities and MPs should be allowed to represent the views of the communities they serve.” To him, that can sometimes mean voting against the private school tax and against decriminalising abortion.
The Your Party rally on Thursday night was packed, but the tone was subdued. People came full of optimism but they also wanted to make up their mind about the credibility of the new offering and to see the renewed reconciliation up close.
The organisers closed the evening off with John Lennon’s song, Imagine. That was apt, because until the party can get their act together, that’s all they’ll be doing.