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There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

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Could Trump make a deal with UK?

Are we heading for a recession?

The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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Man and boy arrested on suspicion of arson after restaurant fire leaves two in critical condition

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Man and boy arrested on suspicion of arson after restaurant fire leaves two in critical condition

A 54-year-old man and a 15-year-old boy have been arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life after a restaurant fire in east London on Friday.

Three people were taken to hospital in a life-threatening condition after the fire at the Indian Aroma in Ilford.

Two remained in a critical condition on Sunday morning, according to the Metropolitan Police.

The restaurant suffered extensive damage in the blaze.

Two further victims are thought to have left the scene before officers arrived, Scotland Yard said.

Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures
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Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures

Police are still trying to identify them.

CCTV footage seen by the PA news agency appears to show a group of people wearing face coverings walk into the restaurant and pour liquid on the floor.

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Seconds later, the inside of the restaurant is engulfed in flames.

“While we have made two arrests, our investigation continues at pace so we can piece together what happened on Friday evening,” said the Met Police’s DCI Mark Rogers.

“I know the community [is] concerned and shocked by this incident.

The moment the fire broke out.
Image:
The moment the fire broke out.

“I would urge anyone with any information or concerns to come forward and speak to police.”

Hospital porter Edward Thawe went to help after hearing screams from his nearby home.

He described the scene as “horrible” and “more than scary and the sort of thing that you don’t want to look at twice.”

He said: “I heard screaming and people saying they had called the police.”

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The 43-year-old said he saw a woman and a severely burned man who may have been customers.

Another witness, who did not want to be named, said he saw three “severely burned” people being doused by the emergency services and given oxygen.

“I can only imagine the pain they were going through,” he said.

On Saturday, the London Ambulance Service told Sky News: “We sent resources to the scene, including ambulance crews, an advanced paramedic, an incident response officer and paramedics from our hazardous area response team.

“We treated five people for burns and smoke inhalation. We took two patients to a major trauma centre and three others to local hospitals.”

The police investigation is continuing.

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Fast-track asylum appeals process to be introduced – as average time for decisions is more than one year

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Fast-track asylum appeals process to be introduced - as average time for decisions is more than one year

A new fast-track asylum appeals process will be introduced to speed up the process of deporting people without a right to remain in the UK, the home secretary has said.

As it currently takes, on average, more than a year to reach a decision on asylum appeals, the government plans to set up a new independent panel focused on asylum appeals to help reduce the backlog.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said “completely unacceptable” delays in the appeals process left failed asylum seekers in the system for years.

There are about 51,000 asylum appeals waiting to be heard.

The new independent body will use professionally-trained adjudicators, rather than relying on judges.

Ministers are introducing a new 24-week deadline for the first-tier tribunal to determine asylum appeals by those receiving accommodation support and appeals by foreign offenders.

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Police clash with protesters in Bristol

But they believe the current tribunal system, which covers a wide range of different cases, is still failing to ensure failed asylum seekers can be returned as swiftly as possible, nor can it accommodate a fast-track system for safe countries.

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It comes amid protests about the use of hotel accommodation for migrants.

The home secretary said the overhaul would result in a system which is “swift, fair and independent, with high standards in place”.

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She said: “We inherited an asylum system in complete chaos with a soaring backlog of asylum cases and a broken appeals system with thousands of people in the system for years on end.

“That is why we are taking practical steps to fix the foundations and restore control and order to the system.

“We are determined to substantially reduce the number of people in the asylum system as part of our plan to end asylum hotels.

“Already since the election, we have reduced the backlog of people waiting for initial decisions by 24% and increased failed asylum returns by 30%.

“But we cannot carry on with these completely unacceptable delays in appeals as a result of the system we have inherited which mean that failed asylum seekers stay in the system for years on end at huge cost to the taxpayer.”

Official figures released earlier this month showed a total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.

‘Waving immigrants through even faster will not fix the problem’

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “I think this goes nowhere near far enough.

“The underlying rights, which allows most illegal immigrants to stay here, are not changing. Simply waving illegal immigrants through even faster to full housing and welfare rights will not fix the problem.”

Chris Philp
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Chris Philp

He added: “Immigration judges will still apply ever expanding common-sense defying definitions of ECHR rights to allow foreign criminals and illegal immigrants to stay here.”

But the Liberal Democrats have been more positive in their response, with shadow attorney general, Ben Maguire, saying: “A faster application process would mean that those with no right to be here are sent back swiftly and those who do have a valid claim can get a job, integrate and contribute to the community.”

Asked for his thoughts on the policy, immigration lawyer Harjap Singh Bhangal told Sky News that it “definitely sounds like some sort of solution”.

He pointed that the backlog of asylum seekers waiting for a decision is “huge”, around 51,000 people – and that during this time, they are not allowed to work.

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A new fast-track asylum appeals process will be introduced to speed up the process of deporting people without a right to remain in the UK.

He said: “The equivalent would be saying that imagine if A-level students this year sat the exams and were told ‘well, hold on, you’re not going to get your results for two years’ time. But in the meantime, you can’t go to university.’

“You’d have mayhem, and it’d be pandemonium in the street. You’d have broken people idle with nothing to do. Essentially, this is what’s happening to asylum seekers.”

He added that one of the reasons it takes so long for cases to be heard is because asylum seekers have to represent themselves in court, which can mean upwards of half a day is spent translating and explaining everything to them.

Mr Bhangal also said the immigration system is “broken”, because “they take ages to make a decision which could be made in one week”.

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Family pay tribute to ‘beloved’ man who died in ‘accident while working on fairground ride’

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Family pay tribute to 'beloved' man who died in 'accident while working on fairground ride'

A man who died after suffering “serious head injuries” while “working on a fairground ride” has been named as Corrie Lee Stavers.

Emergency services were called to the Spanish City Summer Funfair in Whitley Bay in North Tyneside after reports that a man, in his 20s, had been injured around 2.15pm on Saturday, police said.

Mr Stavers, 28, was treated at the scene but was declared dead a short time later.

In a statement issued by the police, his family said: “It’s with broken hearts that we share the devastating news that our beloved Corrie has passed away.

“He was tragically taken from us in an accident while working on a fairground ride. None of us were prepared for this, and the pain of losing him so suddenly is impossible to put into words.

“Our lives will never be the same without him, but his memory will live on in our hearts forever.

“We love you endlessly Corrie, and we miss you more than words can ever say.

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“You’re with our mam now – rest in peace Corrie.”

The funfair, which is in Whitley Bay’s Spanish City Plaza area, has been shut “until further notice” and the Health and Safety Executive has been informed.

The annual funfair had opened on Thursday and had been due to run until Bank Holiday Monday.

Read more from Sky News:
Man and boy arrested after restaurant fire
Fast-track asylum appeals process to be introduced

A Northumbria Police spokesman said: “Emergency services attended and a man in his 20s was found to have suffered serious head injuries.

“Despite the best efforts of medical staff, a short time later the man was sadly declared dead.

“His next of kin have been contacted and are being supported by specialist officers.”

The spokesman added: “Our thoughts are with the man’s family at this extremely difficult time.

“We have contacted the Health and Safety Executive and are working with them to establish exactly what happened.

“The fair has been closed to the public and will remain closed until further notice.”

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