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There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

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The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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Santander bank deal could mean TSB name disappears from UK high street

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Santander bank deal could mean TSB name disappears from UK high street

Santander is to buy TSB, becoming the UK’s third biggest bank in the process.

Once completed, the combined bank will have the third-largest number of personal account balances in the UK, and be fourth in terms of mortgage lending, with a total of nearly 28 million customers, Santander said.

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The deal is still subject to approval by regulators and shareholders of TSB’s parent company, Banco Sabadell, but is expected to conclude in the first three months of 2026.

It could mean the TSB brand is no longer visible on the high street, as Santander said it “intends to integrate TSB in the Santander UK group”.

Job losses may also result.

Santander‘s interest in tabling a bid for TSB was first reported by Sky News.

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TSB has five million customers, offers business and personal accounts, and is the UK’s tenth largest lender for mortgages and deposits. After cutting jobs and branches last year, it currently employs roughly 5,000 staff and operates 175 branches, the seventh largest network in the UK.

It comes just months after speculation that Santander would leave the UK market, despite denials from the Spanish-owned lender.

File pic: iStock
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File pic: iStock

In recent months, it had rejected takeover attempts from rivals NatWest and Barclays.

Barclays had also bid for TSB.

Banco Sabadell said it was selling TSB “to focus our strategy on Spain”, its chief executive, Cesar Gonzalez-Bueno, said.

Santander has agreed to pay an initial £2.65bn for TSB, with the final price expected to rise to £2.9bn when yet-to-be-announced financial results are factored in.

The price is 1.5 times the value of TSB’s assets.

“This is an excellent deal for customers, combining two strong and complementary banks, creating one of the most substantial banks in the UK and materially enhancing the competitiveness of the industry,” said Mike Regnier, CEO of Santander UK.

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Energy bills: Network charges set to rise as price cap eases

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Energy bills: Network charges set to rise as price cap eases

A major component within household energy bills is set to rise sharply from next year to help pay for efforts to maintain energy security during the transition to green power.

The industry regulator Ofgem’s draft determination on how much it will allow network operators to charge energy suppliers from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2031 would push up network costs within household bills by £24 a year.

These charges currently account for 22% of the total bill.

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The findings, which will be subject to consultation before a final determination by the end of the year, reflect demands on network operators to make power and gas networks fit for the future amid expansion in renewable and nuclear energy to meet net zero ambitions.

Ofgem says the plans it has given provisional approval for amount to a £24bn investment programme over the five-year term – a four-fold increase on current levels.

A total of 80 major projects includes upgrades to more than 2,700 miles of overhead power lines.

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If rubber stamped as planned, the resulting network cost increases threaten further upwards pressure on bills from next April – a month that has now become synonymous with rising essential bills.

The watchdog revealed its plans as the 22 million British households on the energy price cap benefit from the first decline for a year.

It is coming down from an annual average £1,849 between April and June to £1,720 from July to September.

That’s on the back of easing wholesale costs seen during the spring – before the temporary surge in wholesale gas prices caused by the recent instability in the Middle East.

A new forecast released by industry specialist Cornwall Insight suggested households were on track to see a further, but slight, decline when the cap is adjusted again in October.

At the current level it is 28% lower than at the height of the energy-led cost of living crisis – but 10% higher than the same period last year.

The price cap does not limit total bills because householders still pay for the amount of energy they consume.

Ofgem is continuing to recommend consumers shop around for fixed rate deals in the market as they can offer savings compared with the price cap and shield homes from any price shocks seen within their fixed terms.

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Jonathan Brearley, the regulator’s chief executive, said: ”Britain’s reliance on imported gas has left us at the mercy of volatile international gas prices which during the energy crisis would have caused bills to rise as high as £4,000 for an average household without government support.

“Even today the price cap can move up or down by hundreds of pounds with little we can do about it.

“This record investment will deliver a homegrown energy system that is better for Britain and better for customers. It will ensure the system has greater resilience against shocks from volatile gas prices we don’t control.

“These 80 projects are a long-term insurance policy against threats to Britain’s energy security and the instability of prices. By bringing online dozens of homegrown, renewable generation sites and modernising our energy system to the one we will need in the future we can boost growth and give ourselves more control over prices too.

“Doing nothing is not an option and will cost consumers more – this is critical national infrastructure. The sooner we build the network we need, and invest to strengthen our resilience, the lower the cost for bill payers will be in the future.”

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Lindsey oil refinery owner Prax Group crashes into insolvency

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Lindsey oil refinery owner Prax Group crashes into insolvency

The owner of the Lindsey oil refinery has crashed into insolvency, putting hundreds of jobs at risk at the energy conglomerate behind the Lincolnshire site.

Sky News has learnt that State Oil, the parent company of Prax Group, which has oilfield interests in the Shetlands and owns roughly 200 petrol stations, has been forced to call in administrators amid mounting losses at the refinery.

Oil industry sources said an announcement was expected later on Monday.

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One of the sources said the Official Receiver had appointed FTI Consulting to act as special manager for the Lindsey facility, with Teneo hired as administrator for the rest of the group.

About 180 people work at State Oil Ltd, Prax Group’s parent entity, while roughly 440 more are employed at the Prax Lindsey Refinery.

The rest of the group is understood to employ hundreds more people.

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Prax Group is owned by Sanjeev Kumar Soosaipillai, who also acts as its chairman and chief executive, according to its website.

The crisis at the Lindsey refinery, which is located on a 500-acre site five miles from the Humber Estuary, echoes that at Britain’s dwindling number of oil refineries.

According to the company, the site has an annual production capacity of 5.4 million tonnes, processing more than 20 different types of crude including petrol, diesel, bitumen, fuel oil and aviation fuels.

The refinery, which was bought from France’s Total in 2020, is understood to have become a growing drain on cash across the wider Prax Group, with which it has cross-guarantees.

Some of the company’s assets, including the petrol stations and oilfields, are not themselves in administration but will be the subject of insolvency practitioners’ decisions about their future ownership.

It was unclear on Monday morning whether bidders would step in to salvage some of the company’s assets, although industry executives believe there are likely to be buyers for many of its fuel retailing and oilfield assets.

Prax Group also bought its West of Shetland oil assets from Total after a deal struck last year.

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In a statement issued to Sky News, Teneo said it would “urgently assess the position of the company and the wholesale operations”.

“A key priority is to establish the prospect for subsidiaries of the company that remain outside of any insolvency process, including retail operations under the Harvest Energies, Total Energies and Breeze brands in the UK and the OIL! Brand in Europe, Logistics operator Axis Logistics and Prax’s upstream business, formerly Hurricane Energy.

“There are no plans for redundancies at this stage.”

Prax Group could not be reached for comment, while FTI Consulting and the Official Receiver have all been contacted for comment.

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