MLB Power Rankings: Move over, Dodgers — there’s a new No. 1 on our list
Three weeks into the new MLB season, there’s a new No. 1 on our list.
After being a unanimous choice atop our preseason rankings, the Los Angeles Dodgers have fallen from the top spot thanks to a recent rough patch (by their standards) combined with the strong performances of other National League powerhouses.
Was it the New York Mets, San Diego Padres or San Francisco Giants who replaced the defending champions atop our Week 3 Power Rankings? Which other teams off to surprising starts surged up our list? And who took the biggest April tumbles?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 2 | Week 1 | Preseason rankings
Record: 15-4
Previous ranking: 3
San Diego finally lost at home this week, but the Padres’ advantage at Petco Park shouldn’t be overlooked. It’s become a more raucous environment than ever, a destination for fans who want to see a pitching staff that so far has compiled the lowest home ERA in the game and a lineup that ranks eighth in home OPS. Fernando Tatis Jr., in particular, must like the sight lines there this year; he has an OPS over 1.100 at Petco Park. San Diego has established a home environment all smaller market teams should strive for, and the Padres are winning plenty to keep fans coming back for more. — Rogers
Record: 14-6
Previous ranking: 1
How much fun is Tommy Edman? Through Tuesday’s games, he is tied for the major league lead with six home runs. Yes, even if it’s for a moment in time, Edman has one more long ball than his teammate Shohei Ohtani, all while playing solid defense, both at second base and center field. Edman led the Dodgers last week with an OPS over .900 while Ohtani was experiencing a mini slump, especially during a weekend series loss to the Cubs. Edman remained hot with a four-hit performance against Colorado on Tuesday. He has yet to go hitless in consecutive games this season. — Rogers
Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 4
Juan Soto was right: Pete Alonso isn’t Aaron Judge, the best hitter in the world and the American League MVP in two of the past three campaigns. But Alonso has been doing his best impression. The first baseman is slashing .356/.466/.729 with five home runs, 20 RBIs and 11 walks to 10 strikeouts hitting behind Soto through Tuesday. Alonso’s 1.195 OPS and 242 OPS+ lead the National League. His hard-hit rate is in the 100th percentile. His average exit velocity and barrel rate sit in the 99th percentile. He already has posted more than half of his fWAR total from last season (1.3 to 2.1). Opponents have mostly opted to pitch around Soto and attack Alonso, but that changed in Minnesota this week when Soto clubbed home runs on consecutive days. It makes for a dangerous recipe. — Castillo
Record: 13-5
Previous ranking: 8
The Giants are rolling, thanks in part to outfielder Jung Hoo Lee. He seems to be coming into his own during his second season in San Francisco, highlighted by a two-homer performance in New York over the weekend. He leads the league in doubles (10) while slugging .647. One thing he is doing particularly well is not letting mistake pitches get by him; instead, he is doing max damage on those pitches, hence all the slug. He already has more than double the number of extra-base hits this season in less than half the at-bats he had all of last year. — Rogers
Record: 10-8
Previous ranking: 2
Alec Bohm notched four hits and a walk in the Phillies’ first two games this season. In 15 games since, the third baseman has gone 8-for-64 with one extra-base hit (a double) and zero walks, an icy stretch that dropped him to eighth in the batting order against the Giants this week. Bohm enjoyed a breakout first half last season, which resulted in his first All-Star nod. But he stumbled down the stretch, culminating in getting benched in the NLDS against the Mets and rampant trade rumors over the offseason. Bohm is batting .228 with four home runs and a .599 OPS in 65 games since the start of last season’s second half. Continued struggles could result in less playing time with Edmundo Sosa pushing for more starts. — Castillo
Record: 12-9
Previous ranking: 6
Losing pitcher Justin Steele to a season-ending elbow injury is a tough early blow. The Cubs do have some pitching depth, but no one as reliable as Steele is. Replacements for the role include veteran right-hander Colin Rea — he threw 3⅔ shutout innings against the Dodgers on Sunday — and young left-hander Jordan Wicks.
Highly touted pitching prospect Cade Horton could also find his way to the majors in the coming month and Chicago’s front office will hit the phone lines as well, calling on potential trade targets like Marlins star Sandy Alcantara. For now, though, expect the Cubs to look inward. — Rogers
Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 5
The Yankees’ starting rotation, a projected strength entering spring training, has been a weakness after injuries to Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt gutted the group. The rotation’s 4.98 ERA through Tuesday was the third-worst mark in the majors. Max Fried has pitched as advertised, posting a 1.88 ERA in his four starts, but Will Warren’s 5.14 ERA ranks second. Schmidt’s return from a shoulder injury this week should bolster the rotation, but the Yankees need Carlos Rodon (5.48 ERA, 12 walks in 23 innings across four starts) to be better in the third year of his six-year, $162 million contract. — Castillo
Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 10
Offense, offense, offense. Arizona is becoming known for a relentless attack. After leading the majors in run scoring last season, the Diamondbacks are off to a hot start again, just behind the Cubs as the second-most prolific team in the NL. Outfielder Corbin Carroll is back to the elite form he displayed when he was named Rookie of the Year in 2023. And he has carried over a hot finish to 2024, hitting a league-leading six home runs, including a grand slam in Miami on Tuesday. Carroll’s output has helped mitigate the loss of second baseman Ketel Marte, who should be back soon. There’s no reason not to believe the D-backs’ offense will continue to lead them all year. — Rogers
Record: 10-8
Previous ranking: 12
Kerry Carpenter clubbed 18 homers in 264 at-bats last season, and then hit a memorable three-run homer against Emmanuel Clase in the postseason. Opposing managers have been saving left-handed relievers to face him, but here is some bad news for the opposition — the left-handed slugger’s production is climbing against lefties, too. He’s got two homers off lefties this season, which is one more than he had all of 2024. — Olney
Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 7
If all you looked at were the offensive numbers, the Rangers’ record would make zero sense. Three key guys — Marcus Semien, Joc Pederson and Jake Burger — all carry on-base percentages of .220 or lower, and the deep lineup of mashers really hasn’t come together yet. But the starting pitching has been really good, with Texas’ rotation ERA of 3.45 ranked seventh in the majors.
Bruce Bochy noted in a text the progression of the pitching — Jacob deGrom still refining his command, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle have thrown well, and the hope is that Jack Leiter — “really impressive,” Bochy wrote — is past his blister issue and will rejoin the rotation. — Olney
Record: 9-8
Previous ranking: 22
It’s too soon to know whether Emmanuel Clase’s brutal start is temporary, but the struggle is real right now. He has already allowed more earned runs (6) than he did for the entire 2024 regular season, and he surrendered 15 hits in eight innings. As he dominated hitters last year, Clase pitched with precision, but so far this year, his raw stuff seems flat and he’s just leaving a lot over the middle of the zone. Interestingly, his first-pitch strike rate is a career-high 75.7%, and it’s fair to wonder if he’s throwing too many strikes. — Olney
Record: 8-10
Previous ranking: 16
Junior Caminero homered in three straight games and compiled three hits in another over the past week. But lesser-known Jonathan Aranda has been the Rays’ best hitter — and the best hitter against right-handed pitching across the sport. The 26-year-old first baseman entered Wednesday leading the majors in batting average (.413), slugging (.761), and OPS (1.242) facing almost exclusively right-handers in 15 games. And the underlying numbers suggest the production isn’t a fluke: He ranks in the 96th percentile or better across the majors in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity among other categories. Aranda is 0-for-4 with two walks in seven plate appearances against left-handed pitchers so he’s likely to remain a platoon player for now, but he is capitalizing on his chances against righties after an injury-plagued 2024 season postponed his breakout. — Castillo
Record: 11-8
Previous ranking: 17
For a team with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have not hit the ball over the wall very often. Toronto’s 11 home runs through Tuesday were tied for the second-lowest total in baseball. Toronto’s 12 home runs through Wednesday are tied for the third-lowest total in baseball. Guerrero didn’t hit his first homer until Toronto’s 19th game Wednesday when he crushed a hanging slider from Spencer Strider. Bo Bichette is still looking for his first long ball.
Andres Giménez, who hit nine home runs last season in Cleveland, leads the club with three. Santander, who clubbed 44 home runs for the Orioles in 2024, went 15 games before homering as a Blue Jay. And yet Toronto is over .500 — a great sign for a club looking to rebound from last season’s last-place finish. — Castillo
Record: 10-10
Previous ranking: 9
Boston’s lineup is as deep as any in baseball on paper, but it has been a boom-or-bust unit so far. On Tuesday, for example, Alex Bregman went 5-for-5 with a double and two home runs in a 7-4 win over the Rays. Before that, the Red Sox were held to four or fewer runs in eight straight games after an 18-run explosion against the Cardinals on April 6. Boston has scored one run in five games and been limited to three or fewer runs in 11 games through Tuesday. It’s why they emerged from Tuesday’s win one game below .500. — Castillo
Record: 9-9
Previous ranking: 19
Julio Rodriguez isn’t on top of any American League leaderboard, but within the context of league-wide pitching dominance, he’s actually doing more at the plate early this season than he has in the past. His wRC+ is 113 and his patience at the plate has been striking: He already has drawn 11 bases on balls, with a walk rate that doubles that of last season. “He’s been as aggressive as he’s always been, especially early in the count,” said Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners’ head of baseball operations. “But the biggest difference to me is that he gets himself dialed back in.” — Olney
Record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 14
The Kansas City offense has a collective slash line of .206/.274/.308, but at the very least, Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting. He’s 10-for-20 over his past six games, with three walks and four strikeouts. The lack of production from the outfielders continues to be an issue: The Royals’ outfielders have a wRC+ of 51, which seems impossibly low. They had two homers in 187 plate appearances. In a related note, star prospect Jac Caglianone has a .290/.356/.579 slash line in Double-A, with all of his starts at first base. — Olney
Record: 9-9
Previous ranking: 20
The Reds finally pushed past the .500 mark earlier this week behind the strength of a pitching staff that dominated during a four-game win streak, surrendering just 16 hits in 36 innings. They allowed just nine runs (2.25 ERA) over that time frame with a minuscule 0.81 WHIP. Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott shined in the rotation while the bullpen, led by righty Emilio Pagan, was stellar. — Rogers
Record: 5-13
Previous ranking: 15
Not much has gone right for the Braves so far in 2025, but Spencer Strider‘s season debut against the Blue Jays on Wednesday qualifies as a resounding positive. Besides giving up an RBI single and a solo home run to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the right-hander held the Blue Jays in check over five-plus innings in his first major league start in more than a year. Strider finished with 10 strikeouts, including a vintage three-pitch strikeout of Bo Bichette to begin the outing, and became the fastest starting pitcher to 500 career strikeouts. He walked two, limited Toronto to three hits and threw 97 pitches. Most importantly, he looked uninhibited. — Castillo
Record: 10-9
Previous ranking: 18
Are the Brewers this year’s Jekyll and Hyde? They’re all over the place, giving up seven or more runs in a third of their games while also compiling four shutouts, second most in baseball. Their latest shutout came thanks to recent pickup Quinn Priester. Milwaukee acquired him from the Red Sox a week into the season — usually marking an inventory/depth addition — but Priester could end up being the move of the year. He has given up just one earned run in two starts: a solid performance at hitter-friendly Coors Field last week followed by five shutout innings against the Tigers on Tuesday. Milwaukee is looking for some consistency on the mound. Could Priester provide it? — Rogers
Record: 7-10
Previous ranking: 11
Orioles general manager Mike Elias met with reporters Tuesday and maintained he believes his club is a playoff team. Baltimore then lost to the Guardians to fall to 6-10. The Orioles’ offense, rightly heralded for its premier young talent, has been inconsistent, but that should improve. The bigger problem is the starting pitching. The Orioles’ rotation ranks last in the majors in ERA. Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Albert Suarez, all projected starters during spring training, are on the injured list while Kyle Bradish isn’t expected to return from Tommy John surgery until the second half. Starting pitching was the concern entering the season after Baltimore failed to replace Corbin Burnes with another front-line starter. And it has so far played out as expected. — Castillo
Record: 8-10
Previous ranking: 13
Jim Crane’s instinct will be to hold his team together and push to make the playoffs for the ninth season in a row, and for the 10th time in the last 11 years. But without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, the challenges are greater. Yordan Alvarez is off to a slow start, and the AL West is more competitive than it was a season ago.
If the Astros do drift from contention, there will be teams calling on Framber Valdez, who will be eligible for free agency in the fall. The Tucker trade seemed to signal a greater willingness to identify deals that will help to turn over the roster and build around the likes of Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz and Cam Smith. — Olney
Record: 9-8
Previous ranking: 21
The Angels are the AL’s biggest surprise so far, and given their struggles of last season, you could understand why rival executives aren’t buying in yet. But there are ways in which the team is clearly distinguishing itself from the ’24 edition, and of course, that starts with the right fielder.
“Mike Trout is still Mike Trout and as long as we have his presence, we have a chance,” manager Ron Washington wrote in a text.
Washington also noted that the youngest Angels are benefitting from the experience of last year – Nolan Schanuel has an .856 OPS, Kyren Paris is impressing and Logan O’Hoppe has an early-season OPS near 1.000. — Olney
Record: 9-9
Previous ranking: 23
Even with Ivan Herrera missing time with a knee injury, Cardinals catchers still lead the league with six home runs and a lofty .329 batting average through Tuesday. Backups Pedro Pages and Yohel Pozo have held their own in Herrera’s absence. Pozo made headlines after coming up from Triple-A as he collected five hits — including two doubles and a home run — in his first three games. The longtime minor leaguer had not seen time in the majors since 2021 when he played in 21 games for the Texas Rangers. Over 1,000 minor league games later, he’s been an unexpected surprise in St. Louis. — Rogers
Record: 7-12
Previous ranking: 24
What is happening in Minnesota is the worst-case scenario — a slow start for a team that did very little to improve over the winter after failing to make the playoffs last season. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are both batting under .200, at a time when Royce Lewis is on the injured list, and Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have allowed 26 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. The weather is always an early-season X factor for the Twins, but hey, a lot of teams have had to play in brutal conditions in the first weeks, and only two AL teams have a worse run differential so far. — Olney
Record: 8-9
Previous ranking: 28
Who had the rebuilding Marlins playing .500 ball through 16 games this season? The team’s relative success probably won’t last much longer, but Miami has held its own through 10% of the regular season.
First baseman Matt Mervis is fueling the offense with five home runs and a 1.009 OPS through Tuesday. Shortstop Xavier Edwards, coming off an impressive 70-game sample last season, is batting over .300 again. Right-hander Max Meyer was impressive in his first three starts, holding opponents to four earned runs across 18 innings.
Chances are the Marlins will sink back down to the basement of the loaded NL East, but this start constitutes a step in the right direction. — Castillo
Record: 8-10
Previous ranking: 25
The early returns on the ballpark in Sacramento are that it’s like Coors Field California. The A’s have the worst home-field ERA, at 5.89, and the 1.56 home runs allowed per game is the fourth-worst ratio in the big leagues. Or maybe those numbers are rooted in a small-sample size of rough pitching performances. — Olney
Record: 7-11
Previous ranking: 26
How bad has the Nationals’ bullpen been this season? Bad enough for manager Dave Martinez to summon his relievers to his office for a meeting before Tuesday’s game against the Pirates. Two Nationals relievers then combined to toss two scoreless innings in a 3-0 win, which qualifies as significant progress for a group that ranks last in the majors in ERA (7.21) and WHIP (1.89). — Castillo
Record: 7-12
Previous ranking: 27
Stop us if you’re heard this one before: The Pirates are having trouble scoring runs. It’s a rinse-and-repeat scenario for the Buccos, who hit just .185 as a team last week (which, incredibly, was not the lowest batting average in MLB). That was low enough to help produce a 2-5 record for Pittsburgh, which sits in last place in the NL Central. The Pirates’ overall team OPS ranks last in the NL and 29th in baseball, and that puts a tremendous strain on their young pitching staff. — Rogers
Record: 4-13
Previous ranking: 30
Andrew Vaughn has generated some ugly numbers so far this season, with a .131 batting average and two home runs in his first 61 at-bats. But the White Sox feel like he’s actually swung the bat better than those numbers indicate — Vaughn is hitting just .132 on balls in play, and he is 54th among 132 hitters in adjusted exit velocity. Whether Vaughn’s early production has been nicked by bad weather, or bad luck, the White Sox anticipate better days ahead for the first baseman. — Olney
Record: 3-15
Previous ranking: 29
Let’s try to find one positive thing about the Rockies, who went 1-7 over the course of the week, from last Tuesday to this one. Here it is: In their lone win — a 7-2 victory over Milwaukee last Thursday — outfielder Brenton Doyle went 4-for-5 with five runs driven in while scoring twice. Doyle, just 26, has an OPS over .900 (through Tuesday) that includes three home runs and a batting average over .300. See? It can be done. It just takes some looking to find the good in Colorado. A younger group of players might provide more positives this summer, but it won’t show up in the standings any time soon. — Rogers
Forget everything you thought you knew in August.
At the midpoint of the season, Penn State has three losses, Clemson has three losses, Texas is trying to claw its way back into the playoff conversation, and undefeated Indiana is … a top five team?!
“This showed the country we’re a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza told reporters after the Hoosiers’ 30-20 win at Oregon. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”
Separation has started to occur, true playoff contenders have begun to emerge through statement wins, and the battle for No. 1 is ongoing. Alabama has made a case for the selection committee’s top one-loss team, and Notre Dame has battled back after an 0-2 start to position itself as the top two-loss team.
The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 7’s top 12 prediction is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released halfway through the season.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes now have two impressive road wins, adding Saturday’s 34-16 victory at Illinois to the Sept. 27 win at Washington. The Buckeyes have defeated three straight Big Ten opponents who are all at .500 or better, including two on the road. Miami has one road win and hasn’t left its home state yet. Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been one of the nation’s most efficient, mistake-free quarterbacks. The Buckeyes are a complete team, ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a historic trait of the selection committee’s past playoff teams. The 70-0 win against FCS Grambling, though, impacts some of that. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas will continue to be valuable within the committee meeting room, as the Longhorns’ win against rival Oklahoma bolsters their chance to be a CFP top 25 team.
Why they could be lower: Indiana just earned the best win in the country, and Miami still has one of the best overall résumés. The Canes were on a bye week but got another boost Friday night when South Florida hammered previously undefeated North Texas 63-36. Some committee members would argue that Miami’s win against Notre Dame is better than Ohio State’s win against Texas.
Need to know: Ohio State has more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The selection committee typically doesn’t move teams around if they don’t play, unless it happens as a result of shuffling around them. Ohio State’s win at Illinois strengthened its résumé, and the Buckeyes were also helped by Texas beating Oklahoma. It didn’t help the Canes that Florida State picked up its third loss, this one to an unranked Pitt team. Miami’s overall body of work, though, is still worthy of consideration for the top spot. South Florida’s 63-36 lopsided win Friday night against previously undefeated North Texas further enhanced the Canes’ 49-12 drubbing of the Bulls on Sept. 13. What’s really separating Miami from Ohio State, though, is the season-opening win against Notre Dame, which has played its way back into the top 25 after winning four straight.
Why they could be higher: Miami has a case to be ranked No. 1 with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State and Florida. The win against the Irish continues to look good after Notre Dame pulled away for a convincing win against NC State on Saturday. Entering Week 7, Miami was No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, with a slight edge over Ohio State.
Need to know: Entering Saturday, no team in the country had a better chance to win out than Miami (32.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is projected to win each of its remaining games — and none of them are likely to feature a top 25 opponent.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami leaves its home state, and it’s not an easy trip. It’s also the last chance to make a first impression on the CFP selection committee, which will release its first of six rankings the Tuesday after this game.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers just earned the best win in the country, beating Oregon on its home turf, where the Ducks had won 18 straight games. Indiana’s defense looked legit, and the Hoosiers have a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Mendoza. IU has now reeled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents, including back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Oregon. The selection committee would likely hold the Hoosiers back from a higher spot right now, though, because half of their wins came against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee compares common opponents, and while the Hoosiers don’t play Ohio State during the regular season, they both played Illinois. Indiana hammered the Fighting Illini 63-10, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career. Ohio State won with relative ease Saturday, beating Illinois 34-16, but it wasn’t the kind of jaw-dropping beatdown the Hoosiers executed.
Need to know: Indiana’s head-to-head win against Oregon impacts both the Big Ten standings and the CFP seeding process. If IU’s only loss were to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Hoosiers could still finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye because those top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. This was the only game on Indiana’s schedule the Hoosiers weren’t favored to win.
Toughest remaining game: Geez. Nov. 1 at Maryland is suddenly the biggest looming obstacle. The Terps are a respectable 4-2 and have lost their past two games by a combined seven points. The Nov. 8 trip to Penn State is a shadow of the test it once appeared to be after the Nittany Lions have lost three straight, reaching a new low with Saturday’s loss to Northwestern.
Why they could be here: The Aggies eventually pulled away from a stingy Florida defense to remain undefeated and with a lead in the SEC race. The Aggies and Ole Miss are the only undefeated teams remaining in their conference, but Texas A&M entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — ahead of both Miami and Ohio State. The Week 3 win at Notre Dame continues to elevate the Aggies’ résumé, but it’s the only road win so far.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could give Alabama more credit for three straight wins against ranked opponents, including two on the road. Texas A&M has only one win against a ranked opponent, and wins against UTSA and Utah State don’t help much.
Need to know: The Aggies are about to enter their season-defining stretch of three straight road games (Arkansas, LSU and Missouri). If Texas A&M loses a game, it will also likely lose the debate with one-loss Alabama if it hasn’t already.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns might have had a turning point Saturday in their win against rival Oklahoma. If Texas can continue to improve offensively, it could be one of the most complete teams the Aggies face in the second half of the season.
Why they could be here: The Tide earned a second road win against a previously undefeated team, this time escaping Missouri to remain undefeated in the SEC. Alabama has now won five straight games since its season-opening loss at Florida State, including three straight against ranked and previously undefeated SEC teams. That résumé combined with the evident growth of quarterback Ty Simpson gives the Tide the strongest case to be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. Heading into Saturday, the only other one-loss team that came close to the Tide in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric was Illinois, and the Fighting Illini lost to Ohio State in Week 7.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss wasn’t pretty Saturday against Washington State, but the Rebels are still undefeated and Bama’s not. Plus, Alabama’s loss is now to a three-loss Florida State after the Noles lost to Pitt.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Alabama had a few scares Saturday. Receiver Derek Meadows appeared to be knocked unconscious in the first quarter, and coach Kalen DeBoer later said Meadows suffered a concussion. Running back Jam Miller, who had 136 yards in the Tide’s win against Vandy, also suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Tigers gave Georgia fits Saturday night and controlled the first half. They’ll have home-field advantage in the Iron Bowl, where anything can happen.
Why they could be here: The Rebels were underwhelming after a bye week and fortunate to beat Washington State at home 24-21. The committee pays attention to how teams win, and the Rebels trailed 14-10 late in the third quarter. Still, Ole Miss has wins against Tulane, which is in the running for the Group of 5 playoff spot, and the committee will continue to reward the Sept. 27 home win against LSU. The Rebels also have a budding star in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for three total touchdowns against the Cougars on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Georgia State, Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 5-12 and unranked, and the win against the Wildcats is the Rebels’ lone road win.
Need to know: Ole Miss has back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma looming, what’s likely to be its last games against ranked opponents. If the Rebels were to lose both, the rest of their schedule could raise concerns with some committee meeting members. Ole Miss needs to find a statement road win this month to help avoid that debate.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Bulldogs found a way to beat a gritty Auburn team on the road and are looking better than the Sooners right now.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Auburn in the first half but found a way to win on the road against a decent team that had a bye week to prepare. Georgia remains one of the country’s top one-loss teams but will be stuck behind Alabama in the committee meeting room because of the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as their records are comparable. Georgia could also be ahead of Oregon because the Bulldogs’ lone loss was in overtime on the road, while Oregon lost at home Saturday to IU.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s best win is against a Tennessee team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, and the Bulldogs needed overtime to do it. Texas Tech is still undefeated, and some committee members could reward it for that ahead of both Georgia and Oregon.
Need to know: Georgia’s two best remaining chances to impress the selection committee will be Saturday against Ole Miss and in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. If Georgia beats the Jackets, it’s still possible they could have a win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. If the Rebels play like they did in their win against LSU — a complete game — they’ll give Georgia trouble.
Why they could be here: The Ducks faced their toughest opponent to date and lost at home to Indiana, a significant setback in the Big Ten race but hardly a dagger in their CFP hopes. The bigger problem is the lack of a true statement win, as the Sept. 27 double overtime win at Penn State has been significantly devalued following the three-loss Nittany Lions’ unraveling. A win against FCS Montana State isn’t going to impress the committee, nor will a win against an Oklahoma State team that fired its head coach. Oregon’s best win so far is at 4-2 Northwestern, which also beat Penn State. Indiana’s defense also gave Oregon its biggest challenge of the season, holding the Ducks to a season-low 20 points.
Why they could be lower: Oregon didn’t exactly pass the eye test against better competition, as quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. Oregon has three pick-sixes this season, its most in a season since 2018. Oregon was just 3-of-14 on third downs and was held to 81 rushing yards.
Need to know: That might have been Oregon’s last chance during the regular season to impress the selection committee with a win against a ranked opponent. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss team — which they should barring an upset — that could come back to haunt them on Selection Day. Another one-loss team like Alabama that has multiple wins against CFP top 25 teams will get the edge in a debate. That doesn’t mean their playoff hopes are in any danger, but it could mean the difference between hosting a first-round home game and traveling.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The Ducks also have a tricky matchup Nov. 22 against USC but will have home-field advantage. Ending the season on the road against a respectable Washington team after a tough game against the Trojans is more difficult than it appears.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders have gained traction and legitimized their place in the playoff with three straight convincing wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records. Entering Week 7, Texas Tech was ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gave the average top 25 opponent a 44.1% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Red Raiders have the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game and win it, which would guarantee them a spot in the field.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech’s weak nonconference schedule includes a win against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-3), Kent State (2-4) and Oregon State (0-7). Their best win is Sept. 20 at Utah, which isn’t as impressive as most of the other contenders’ statement wins.
Need to know: Backup quarterback storylines have been integral to the CFP selection process — for better or for worse, depending on the situation — and the Red Raiders have proved on multiple occasions now that they can win without injured starter Behren Morton. He was hurt again Saturday and left the game against Kansas, but the Big 12’s third-leading passer also had to leave against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Utah with injuries. The committee will appreciate the fact that Texas Tech has a No. 2 capable of winning in Will Hammond.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars and Red Raiders could face each other in the Big 12 championship game, but they have to face each other during the regular season first.
Why they could be here: Even the speedy return of injured quarterback John Mateer wasn’t enough to overcome a stingy Texas defense Saturday, as the Sooners were held to just six points. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan is still one of the better nonconference wins in the country, though, and helps separate the Sooners from some other teams with weaker nonconference lineups. The selection committee also respects wins against opponents with .500 records or better, and the Sept. 20 win against Auburn would still be favorable in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: Texas was the best defense OU has faced so far, and it exposed some weaknesses teams like Illinois State, Temple and Kent State couldn’t. Mateer threw three interceptions and completed 20 of 38 pass attempts just 17 days after surgery on his right hand.
Need to know: Oklahoma entered Saturday with the most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The Sooners travel to South Carolina on Saturday before ending the season against what should be five straight ranked opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Tide have won five straight and will have a bye week and home-field advantage.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ lone loss is to an undefeated Ole Miss on the road, and LSU’s defense continues to be one of the best in the country. LSU held off a pesky South Carolina team Saturday, limiting the Gamecocks to just one touchdown.
Why they could be lower: Wins against Clemson and Florida aren’t going to separate LSU from other one-loss teams, and the Tigers have struggled to consistently play complete football in all three phases. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw two interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers also lost a fumble. LSU is still searching for a statement win.
Need to know: One of the statistics the selection committee has historically leaned on is called “relative scoring defense,” which is something it would probably look at with LSU. How are the Tigers doing defensively against teams that typically score more than they allow? Those tests are yet to come, but the 24-19 loss to Ole Miss likely didn’t help that particular metric. If LSU is going to lean on its elite defense, it has to show up against the best offenses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. It’s not just that it’s Bama — it’s the third straight game against a ranked opponent, as LSU faces Vandy and Texas A&M before the Tide. If LSU loses to one of them, it will be under tremendous pressure to win in Tuscaloosa.
Why they could be here: The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — one week after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win. It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team, struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Alabama. Tennessee’s lone loss was in overtime to Georgia, which also lost to Alabama.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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