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'Too early to tell' tariff impact on ASML, analyst says

Investors are entering 2025’s first-quarter earnings season with a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over them — thanks primarily to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The scale of duties announced in April, along with the volatility injected by subsequent updates and reversals in policy, have so far exceeded even the most bearish forecasts.

Negotiators from the European Union and the U.K. are in talks with U.S. officials to try to alleviate their respective 25% and 10% blanket tariffs, while also grappling with broader tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos. Meanwhile, the rest of the world watches on to see whether red-hot tensions between Washington and Beijing will cool, averting a trade war between the two biggest economies that would have far-ranging repercussions.

Latest trade developments between the European Union and the U.S.

Two major earnings reports have already landed in Europe, providing an indication of the tone to come.

Luxury giant LVMH said its categories such as beauty, wines and spirits were vulnerable to a pullback in spending by “aspirational clientele.” Dutch semiconductor firm ASML, which manufacturers chipmaking machines critical to global tech, said tarifs were “creating a new uncertainty” around demand. But neither was able to quantify the scale of the impact.

Here are five other major European firms yet to report earnings that could face big hits from the tariff turmoil.

Maersk

Danish shipping giant Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, is poised to report first-quarter earnings on May 8. Shares of the company have been highly volatile in recent weeks, moving sharply as investors react to the Trump administration’s back-and-forth tariff announcements.

An escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, has been a major source of concern for the maritime and transport sector.

Cargo ships and containers at Qingdao port in eastern China's Shandong province on Dec. 4, 2024.

Global trade outlook has ‘deteriorated sharply’ amid Trump tariff uncertainty, WTO warns

Analysts expect Maersk’s first-quarter earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortization (EBITDA) to come in at $2.3 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus, down from $3.6 billion in the final three months of 2024.

Maersk earlier this month described the U.S. tariffs as “significant” and — in their current form — clearly not good news for the global economy, stability and trade.

“It is still too early to say with any confidence how this will ultimately unfold. We need to see how countries will respond to these plans — and to what extent they choose to negotiate, impose counter-tariffs, adjust import duties, or pursue a combination of these measures,” the company said in a statement on April 3.

Shell

Shell is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 2. It comes after the British oil giant in March announced plans to boost shareholder returns, cut costs and double down on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) push.

In a later trading update, Shell trimmed its first-quarter LNG production outlook, citing unplanned maintenance, including in Australia.

A Shell logo in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Oil and gas stocks have been caught up in tariff-fueled market turmoil in recent weeks, with energy majors exposed to growing recession fears, subdued oil demand and falling crude prices.

Analysts at wealth manager Hargreaves Lansdown said earlier this month that Shell’s “sharpened focus on efficiency and quality leaves it well-placed to grow free cash flow and shareholder distributions.”

But it can’t control the oil price, Hargreaves Lansdown noted, “so, investors have to be prepared for the relatively high level of volatility that accompanies the entire sector.”

Shell is expected to report first-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.14 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus, down from $7.73 billion in the same period a year ago. The energy major reported adjusted earnings $3.66 billion in the final three months of 2024.

Equity analysts have singled out Shell as the best capital allocator among its European peers, pointing toward the firm’s steadfast commitment to cost discipline under CEO Wael Sawan.

Volkswagen

Germany’s Volkswagen is one of many automotive firms expected to take a hit from tariffs — particularly those on Canada and Mexico — though results out April 30 should give a clearer indicaion of how much it expects to be able to shoulder through operations in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

The U.S. in April implemented a 25% charge on all foreign cars imported into the country, which appears to have already caused some panic-buying.

Volkswagen’s Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz told CNBC last month the company was in favor of open markets but already felt “like an American company” due to its thousands of U.S. employees.

However, analysts warn tariffs are especially negative for German carmakers which export thousands of vehicles a year to the U.S., while many cars produced in the country still require European-made parts.

Volkswagen is expected to produce higher year-on-year revenue in the first quarter, up to 77.6 billion euros ($88.2 billion) from 75.5 billion euros, an LSEG-compiled consensus shows. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are seen dipping to 4.03 billion euros from 4.6 billion euros.

Lufthansa

As geopolitical tensions mount, some have questioned whether travel demand will suffer or trends will change — and the results of German airline group Lufthansa, due April 29, could hold some clues.

Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told CNBC in early March that he expected global demand to drive “significantly” higher profit in 2025 and had not seen any dent in transatlantic bookings. But a lot has changed since then, with the scale of Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric fueling public anger and even boycotts of U.S. products.

A Lufthansa Airlines plane taxiing for takeoff as an United Airlines plane lands at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) in San Francisco, California, United States on February 7, 2025. 

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

Figures for March published by the International Trade Administration showed a 17.2% year-on-year fall in visitor arrivals from Western Europe to the U.S., against a 3.4% dip from Asia and a 17.7% increase from the Middle East.

Lufthansa Group, which includes the German flag carrier along with SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Italy’s ITA Airways, has already been grappling with challenges including strikes, global price pressures and Boeing aircraft delivery delays.

According to an LSEG-compiled consensus, analysts expect the group to report revenue of around 8.07 billion euros in the first quarter, up from 7.4 billion euros the previous year, and a roughly $630 million loss in EBIT, trimmed from a $871 million loss year-on-year and down from $482 million profit the prior quarter.

Novo Nordisk

Drugmakers have little idea how their access to the critical U.S. market will be impacted in the coming months.

The Trump administration said last week that it had opened an investigation into how importing certain pharmaceuticals affects national security, widely seen as a prelude to tariffs on drugs — also suggested to be happening in the coming months by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

There remains no clarity over what size the tariffs will be, and when or even if they will come into effect.

For Denmark’s Novo Nordisk, Europe’s second-largest listed company, that leaves exposed the U.S. sales of its hugely popular obesity and diabetes treatments Ozempic and Wegovy. Traders will be hoping its May 7 results give an indication of how it is preparing for that, and how much can be offset by its “very significant” manufacturing set-up in the U.S.

Emily Field, head of European pharmaceuticals research at Barclays, told CNBC earlier this month that tariffs were the “No. 1 question on investors’ minds.”

— CNBC’s Karen Gilchrist and Annika Kim Constantino contributed reporting.

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More US cities are offering free or heavily discounted electric bikes to residents

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More US cities are offering free or heavily discounted electric bikes to residents

Electric bikes are booming in popularity across the US, and cities are starting to take notice. From famous programs like those in Denver to smaller initiatives around the country, local governments are rolling out rebate and incentive programs to make e-bikes more affordable, especially for lower-income residents. The goal? Get more people out of cars and onto two wheels.

E-bike incentives vary widely by city and state, but the overall trend is clear: public officials increasingly see e-bikes as a low-cost, low-emission transportation solution that checks a lot of boxes. E-bikes are cheaper than cars, don’t require gas, and are far more accessible than public transit in many neighborhoods. And with the ability to flatten hills and shrink long commutes, they’re attracting a much broader audience than traditional bikes.

Programs like Denver’s wildly popular e-bike rebate initiative have shown how effective these incentives can be. The city offers over $1,00 off an e-bike purchase depending on income level, and the demand has been enormous. Rhode Island recently launched its own statewide rebate program offering up to $750, and cities like Ann Arbor, Oakland, Providence, and dozens of others are following suit with their own variations. A Bend, Oregon program will offer free e-bikes to locals. Washington D.C. is piloting a rebate targeted at delivery workers, and even some utility companies, like Vermont’s Green Mountain Power, have gotten in on the action.

These programs especially benefit lower-income residents, who may rely on expensive or unreliable transportation options to get to work, school, or the grocery store. By offering higher rebates to income-qualified applicants, many programs aim to level the playing field and make car-free living more realistic.

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Of course, not every program has gone smoothly. California’s statewide e-bike incentive, much hyped before its launch, faced repeated delays and technical issues that left many applicants frustrated. While the program finally began distributing vouchers this year, the rollout highlights the challenges of scaling these efforts statewide without sufficient infrastructure or planning.

Still, the momentum is undeniable. As cities grapple with climate goals, traffic congestion, and rising transportation costs, e-bike rebates are a relatively cheap way to make a big impact. The biggest challenge now may be keeping up with demand.

Electrek’s Take:

This is one of those rare win-win policies: cleaner air, less traffic, more mobility for people who need it most – and it’s all powered by a single horsepower and some political will. Let’s hope even more cities plug into this trend.

Of course, funding is the biggest obstacle to keeping programs like these rolling. But with the benefits stacking up, from reduced road damage to improved air quality, hopefully the rewards outweigh the upfront cost.

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Tesla inks $16.5B deal with Samsung for HW6 chips, but still no HW3 solution

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Tesla inks .5B deal with Samsung for HW6 chips, but still no HW3 solution

Tesla will use Samsung for as a supplier for its self-driving computer’s next-gen hardware in a $16.5 billion deal, according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

But despite planning two generations ahead, the company still doesn’t have a solution to bring the promised full autonomy to hardware that it’s been promising that capability to since 2016.

Earlier today, Samsung announced a 22.8 trillion won ($16.5 billion) deal that would run through 2033. In that filing, Samsung did not name the customer, only that it is a “large global company”. Later, Bloomberg reported that the customer is Tesla, and Musk confirmed this on twitter. Then in his usual bravado, he stated that the deal is “likely much more than that.”

Musk also stated that the chips will be made in Samsung’s facility in Taylor, Texas. Manufacturing is likely to start in 2026.

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Samsung makes the chips for the self-driving computers in Tesla’s current vehicles, but the next generation will be made by TSMC, first in Taiwan and then later in Arizona. Then the next-next generation will be covered by this new Samsung deal.

The new deal is significant due to TSMC’s global dominance of chipmaking. Samsung has had significant unused capacity, so the Tesla deal is a big boost for the company’s chip foundry business.

Tesla has gone through several generations of chips, previous referred to as “HW,” standing for “hardware,” with a number indicating their generation. More recently, Tesla started referring to its chips with “AI” instead of “HW,” in order to incorporate the tech buzzword du jour.

Currently Tesla is on HW4/AI4, and TSMC will make HW5, then Samsung will make HW6 again.

These generations of hardware each get successively more capable, and can handle more data and thus theoretically become better at self-driving tasks.

Current Tesla HW4 vehicles cannot drive themselves, and are only capable of SAE level 2 operation, which requires an attentive driver behind the steering wheel (though Tesla’s solution does work better than most others). Tesla’s ‘Robotaxi’ system is currently operating in Austin without anyone in the driver’s seat, but has a “safety rider” who can take control of the vehicle, blurring the line somewhat on which SAE level it is operating at.

But what about HW3?

There’s a problem with the differentiation between these generations of hardware: ever since 2016, when Tesla was on version 2 of its hardware, it has promised full self-driving capability on all of its vehicles.

This was announced in a blog post on October 19, 2016, which has since been deleted from Tesla’s website but is still available through archive.org.

Tesla stated, at the time, that every single Tesla vehicle produced after that date had the hardware that would allow for full self-driving.

It eventually became apparent that HW2 would not be capable of full self-driving tasks, and Tesla upgraded to HW3, promising all HW2 customers that they would get a free upgrade to HW3 if they bought Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, which has varied in price over time but once cost $15,000.

However, Tesla still tried to charge owners $1,500 for that hardware upgrade, even though Tesla sold cars claiming that they had all the hardware needed for full self-driving.

One owner had to take Tesla to court to get them to deliver on this promise, and Tesla is still charging $1,000 for this hardware owners already bought. And that’s not the only one, there are a number of other self-driving false advertising cases that have gone to court, arbitration, or reached a settlement.

Now, with the change from HW3 to HW4, we’re seeing indications of a similar run-around.

We’ve already seen differing FSD software versions based on which hardware level vehicles have, with HW3 vehicles getting updates later than HW4 vehicles do. On last week’s Q2 earnings call, Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja said:

What we want to do is get unsupervised done on hardware four first. Once it’s done, then we’ll go back and look at what we need to do with the hardware three cars. Like I said, the focus is first to get unsupervised out and then we’ll go back and see what more work we need to do.

“Unsupervised” is Tesla’s new name for actual full self-driving, which would allow a vehicle to drive without the supervision of someone in the driver’s seat. This as opposed to “supervised FSD,” a phrase Tesla started using after about a decade of promising full self-driving without delivering it.

Here, Taneja said that HW3 cars will eventually get FSD, but Tesla hasn’t really figured out the path to that, and it’s focusing on new cars first, then will go back around to see what needs to happen.

Previously, Musk had stated that Tesla “will have to upgrade people’s hardware 3 computer,” but more recently it has become apparent that Tesla really doesn’t have a plan for that upgrade. And Taneja’s comments suggest that Tesla will still try to wedge FSD onto HW3, despite previously admitting that the system is not capable of it.

The existence of future HW5 and even HW6 chips also suggest that current systems are not capable of full self-driving. If HW4 is FSD-capable, then why would Tesla need two more generations of chip in the next two years in order to do the tasks that it promised all of its cars could do a full decade prior?

So, much more than having no solution for HW3 cars (or even HW2 cars, some of which have gotten free upgrades, but others who have been charged $1,000 to upgrade to a computer they already paid for), does this mean that Tesla is going to kick the can further down the road, and eventually have no solution for HW4 and HW5 either?

And, when will we know about these solutions? Tesla has sold millions of vehicles with the promise of self-driving which will seemingly need an upgrade at some point. And many of those vehicles are old enough, at this point, to be retired, despite spending up to $15,000 on a piece of software that has never been delivered to them.

An HW6/AI6 computer will surely have all sorts of new whizbang capabilities, but we were promised those capabilities years ago, and they’re still not delivered yet.


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Mary Kay goes electric with new Pink Cadillac OPTIQ (cue the music)

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Mary Kay goes electric with new Pink Cadillac OPTIQ (cue the music)

Mark Kay’s iconic Pink Cadillac awards are driving into the future for 2025. The company’s first-ever electric Pink Cadillac OPTIQ made its debut during the Mary Kay annual Seminar in Charlotte this weekend, symbolizing a “recharged vision” for the future of the popular brand.

Pioneers in monetizing friendships female empowerment and entrepreneurship, the Pink Cadillac is considered one the most coveted symbols of achievement for Mary Kay sales reps, signifying not just great sales (GM Authority reported that it took ~$102,000 in annual sales to qualify back in 2001), but also leadership, a history of mentoring others, and a sustained reputation of excellence among their peers.

The women you see behind the wheel of the Pink Cadillac are the real deal, in other words, and the big Caddy really does mean something to people in the know.

The iconic pink Cadillac was born in 1968 when Mary Kay Ash purchased a Cadillac Coupe De Ville from a Dallas dealership and promptly had it painted to match the pale pink Mary Kay lip and eye palette. General Motors later named the color Mary Kay Pink Pearl, and the shade is exclusive to Mary Kay.

MARY KAY

Now, the Pink Cadillac is going to stand for environmental sustainability, too, enabling Mary Kay’s top performers to set yet another positive example for anyone aspiring to their success.

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“For decades, the Mary Kay pink Cadillac has symbolized accomplishment, aspiration, and the power of recognition,” said Ryan Rogers, Chief Executive Officer of Mary Kay. “With the introduction of the all-electric OPTIQ, we’re honoring that iconic legacy while driving into a transformative future—one grounded in our commitment to sustainability and dedication to inspiring and celebrating the achievements of our independent sales force for generations to come.”

Mary Kay announced its new Pink Cadillac with this video, below.

Same Legacy, New Energy


“The legacy continues with the new, all-electric (and still very pink) Cadillac Otiq [sic],” reads the official Mary Kay copy on YouTube. “The Optiq remains instantly recognizable with the pink pearl exterior, while modernizing with sleek, cutting-edge features. In addition, this vehicle showcases our commitment and dedication to sustainability by reducing our carbon footprint while continuing to inspire.”

Speaking of inspiration, I can’t hardly hear the words “Pink Cadillac” without thinking of the song. But, since “Bruce Springsteen” has become something of a trigger word for the MAGA snowflakes in the audience, I’ll post a different, but similarly great song about rose-tinted GM flagships from Dope Lemon. You can let me know what you think of it in the comments.

As ever, the Cadillac is not a “gift,” per se – but typically takes the form of a two year lease paid for by Mary Kay. No word yet on what the exact shape and form the OPTIQ deal will take.

Electrek’s Take


Whatever you might think of MLMs or businesses like Amway, Avon, or Mary Kay, they play a big part in the social dramas of hundreds (if not thousands) of neighborhoods and online communities. The people at the top are influential, and the people “below” them genuinely try to emulate them and follow their lead.

Thanks to Mary Kay, that might soon mean a decision to buy an electric vehicle – and that result would be a win for everyone.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Mary Kay.


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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