5 European stocks to watch this earnings season as Trump’s tariffs hit
Investors are entering 2025’s first-quarter earnings season with a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over them — thanks primarily to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The scale of duties announced in April, along with the volatility injected by subsequent updates and reversals in policy, have so far exceeded even the most bearish forecasts.
Negotiators from the European Union and the U.K. are in talks with U.S. officials to try to alleviate their respective 25% and 10% blanket tariffs, while also grappling with broader tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos. Meanwhile, the rest of the world watches on to see whether red-hot tensions between Washington and Beijing will cool, averting a trade war between the two biggest economies that would have far-ranging repercussions.
Two major earnings reports have already landed in Europe, providing an indication of the tone to come.
Luxury giant LVMH said its categories such as beauty, wines and spirits were vulnerable to a pullback in spending by “aspirational clientele.” Dutch semiconductor firm ASML, which manufacturers chipmaking machines critical to global tech, said tarifs were “creating a new uncertainty” around demand. But neither was able to quantify the scale of the impact.
Here are five other major European firms yet to report earnings that could face big hits from the tariff turmoil.
Maersk
Danish shipping giant Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, is poised to report first-quarter earnings on May 8. Shares of the company have been highly volatile in recent weeks, moving sharply as investors react to the Trump administration’s back-and-forth tariff announcements.
An escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, has been a major source of concern for the maritime and transport sector.
Analysts expect Maersk’s first-quarter earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortization (EBITDA) to come in at $2.3 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus, down from $3.6 billion in the final three months of 2024.
Maersk earlier this month described the U.S. tariffs as “significant” and — in their current form — clearly not good news for the global economy, stability and trade.
“It is still too early to say with any confidence how this will ultimately unfold. We need to see how countries will respond to these plans — and to what extent they choose to negotiate, impose counter-tariffs, adjust import duties, or pursue a combination of these measures,” the company said in a statement on April 3.
Shell
Shell is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 2. It comes after the British oil giant in March announced plans to boost shareholder returns, cut costs and double down on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) push.
In a later trading update, Shell trimmed its first-quarter LNG production outlook, citing unplanned maintenance, including in Australia.
A Shell logo in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oil and gas stocks have been caught up in tariff-fueled market turmoil in recent weeks, with energy majors exposed to growing recession fears, subdued oil demand and falling crude prices.
Analysts at wealth manager Hargreaves Lansdown said earlier this month that Shell’s “sharpened focus on efficiency and quality leaves it well-placed to grow free cash flow and shareholder distributions.”
But it can’t control the oil price, Hargreaves Lansdown noted, “so, investors have to be prepared for the relatively high level of volatility that accompanies the entire sector.”
Shell is expected to report first-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.14 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus, down from $7.73 billion in the same period a year ago. The energy major reported adjusted earnings $3.66 billion in the final three months of 2024.
Equity analysts have singled out Shell as the best capital allocator among its European peers, pointing toward the firm’s steadfast commitment to cost discipline under CEO Wael Sawan.
Volkswagen
Germany’s Volkswagen is one of many automotive firms expected to take a hit from tariffs — particularly those on Canada and Mexico — though results out April 30 should give a clearer indicaion of how much it expects to be able to shoulder through operations in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
The U.S. in April implemented a 25% charge on all foreign cars imported into the country, which appears to have already caused some panic-buying.
Volkswagen’s Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz told CNBC last month the company was in favor of open markets but already felt “like an American company” due to its thousands of U.S. employees.
However, analysts warn tariffs are especially negative for German carmakers which export thousands of vehicles a year to the U.S., while many cars produced in the country still require European-made parts.
Volkswagen is expected to produce higher year-on-year revenue in the first quarter, up to 77.6 billion euros ($88.2 billion) from 75.5 billion euros, an LSEG-compiled consensus shows. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are seen dipping to 4.03 billion euros from 4.6 billion euros.
Lufthansa
As geopolitical tensions mount, some have questioned whether travel demand will suffer or trends will change — and the results of German airline group Lufthansa, due April 29, could hold some clues.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told CNBC in early March that he expected global demand to drive “significantly” higher profit in 2025 and had not seen any dent in transatlantic bookings. But a lot has changed since then, with the scale of Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric fueling public anger and even boycotts of U.S. products.
A Lufthansa Airlines plane taxiing for takeoff as an United Airlines plane lands at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) in San Francisco, California, United States on February 7, 2025.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Figures for March published by the International Trade Administration showed a 17.2% year-on-year fall in visitor arrivals from Western Europe to the U.S., against a 3.4% dip from Asia and a 17.7% increase from the Middle East.
Lufthansa Group, which includes the German flag carrier along with SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Italy’s ITA Airways, has already been grappling with challenges including strikes, global price pressures and Boeing aircraft delivery delays.
According to an LSEG-compiled consensus, analysts expect the group to report revenue of around 8.07 billion euros in the first quarter, up from 7.4 billion euros the previous year, and a roughly $630 million loss in EBIT, trimmed from a $871 million loss year-on-year and down from $482 million profit the prior quarter.
Novo Nordisk
Drugmakers have little idea how their access to the critical U.S. market will be impacted in the coming months.
The Trump administration said last week that it had opened an investigation into how importing certain pharmaceuticals affects national security, widely seen as a prelude to tariffs on drugs — also suggested to be happening in the coming months by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
There remains no clarity over what size the tariffs will be, and when or even if they will come into effect.
For Denmark’s Novo Nordisk, Europe’s second-largest listed company, that leaves exposed the U.S. sales of its hugely popular obesity and diabetes treatments Ozempic and Wegovy. Traders will be hoping its May 7 results give an indication of how it is preparing for that, and how much can be offset by its “very significant” manufacturing set-up in the U.S.
Emily Field, head of European pharmaceuticals research at Barclays, told CNBC earlier this month that tariffs were the “No. 1 question on investors’ minds.”
— CNBC’s Karen Gilchrist and Annika Kim Constantino contributed reporting.
Tesla’s earnings report dropped today, and news isn’t great. But instead of recognizing his failures that have led to Tesla’s downturn, CEO Elon Musk lashed out with conspiracy theories while also hypocritically failing to acknowledge that his company was only profitable this quarter due to regulatory credits.
The numbers are in on Tesla’s dismal quarter, with sales, profits and margins tanking significantly for the company despite a rising global EV market.
You’d expect a drop in car sales to be top of mind for a car company, but instead of talking about this, CEO Elon Musk opened the call by talking about his ineffective advisory role to a former reality TV host.
Musk is heading up the self-styled “Department of Government Efficiency,” an advisory group that is focused on reducing redundancy in government. The office is not an actual government department and has a redundant mission to the Government Accountability Office, which is an actual government department focused on reducing government waste.
Musk originally claimed that the department would be able to save $2 trillion for the US government, which is actually impossible because federal discretionary spending is $1.7 trillion, which is a (gets out abacus) smaller number than $2 trillion.
He has, of course, failed at this task that anyone with any level of competence would have known was impossible before setting it out for themselves, and now projects that the department will save $150 billion next year, less than a tenth of his original estimate. But even that projection is likely an overstatement, given that most of the supposed savings that DOGE has found are not actual savings at all.
On top of this, the US government’s deficit has grown to the second-highest level on record – with the first happening in 2020, the last time Mr. Trump squatted in the White House. Which means the government isn’t saving money, it is in fact borrowing and spending more of it than ever before.
So, Musk’s tenure in the advisory board has been an unmitigated failure by any realistic account.
But if you listened to Tesla’s call, you wouldn’t have known this, as Musk was quite boastful of his efforts – starting a Tesla conference call with an irrelevant rant about his fake government department, instead of with Tesla business.
He claimed that he has made “a lot of progress in addressing waste and fraud” and that the job is “mostly done,” which is not correct by his own metrics. Musk stated that his purpose is “trying to bring in the insane deficit that is leading our country, the United States, to destruction,” and as we covered above, that deficit has only increased.
But he also went on to spew some rather insane conspiracy theories about the reasons behind his company’s recent failures, all of which of course put the blame on someone else, rather than himself. The buck stops anywhere but here, I guess.
His primary assertion was that the “blowback from the time I’ve been spending in government” (which, again, is an advisory role, not an actual government position) has come mainly from protesters that were “receiving fraudulent money” and are now angry that the government money spigot has been turned off.
Which, of course, he’s provided no evidence for… and he’s provided no evidence for it because it’s false.
Besides, that’s not how protests work. But incorrect claims that protests do work that way are often used by opponents of free speech, with the motivation of putting a chilling effect public participation. Fitting behavior for an enemy of the First Amendment like Elon Musk.
Meanwhile, this assertion also comes from a person who tried and failed to bribe voters to win an election. Perhaps his admiration of Tesla protesters is aspirational – he wishes his ideas were good enough to inspire that sort of grassroots political effort that money, demonstrably, cannot buy.
But this hypocrisy extends beyond Musk’s hatred of free expression, and strikes at the heart of the business he is the titular leader of, Tesla, the organization that has made him into the richest man in the world. Because not only is it not true that Tesla protests are driven by his ineffective government actions (they are, in fact, driven by him doing Nazi stuff all the time), it’s also objectively true that Musk’s companies are a large recipient of government money.
And that’s particularly relevant today, to the very earnings call where Musk made his ridiculous assertion, because in Q1 2025, Tesla only turned a profit due to government credits. Without them, it would have lost money.
Tesla only profitable in Q1 due to regulatory credits
Per today’s earnings report, Tesla earned $595 million in regulatory credits in Q1. But its total net income for the quarter was $409 million.
This means that without those regulatory credits, Tesla would have posted a -$189 million loss in Q1. It was saved not just by credit sales, but credit sales which increased year over year – in the year-ago quarter, Tesla made $442 million in regulatory credits, despite having higher sales in Q1 2024 than in Q1 2025. So not only were credits higher, but credits per vehicle were higher.
This is a common feature of Tesla earnings, and we even said in our earnings preview that we expected it. While Tesla had a bad quarter, nobody expected it to become actually unprofitable, because there was always the possibility of increasing regulatory credit sales to eke out a profitable quarter.
And this has been the case many times in Tesla’s past, as well. In earlier times, Tesla’s first few profitable quarters were decried by the company’s opponents as an accounting trick, suggesting that regulatory credit sales weren’t “real” profits, and that the cars should have to stand on their own.
This is a silly thing to say – businesses do business in the environment that exists, and every business has an incentive structure that includes subsidies and externalities. If we were to selectively write off certain profits for certain businesses, we could make a tortured case that any business isn’t profitable.
Plus, these opponents didn’t extend the same treatment to the oil industry, which is subsidized to the tune of $760 billion per year in the US alone in unpriced externalities, yet that is somehow never mentioned during their earnings calls.
Musk has even claimed, probably correctly, that if all subsidies were eliminated both for EVs and for oil & gas, that EVs would come out ahead compared to the status quo (more recently, Musk has become one of the biggest funders of anti-EV forces, allying himself with a bought-and-paid oil stooge who is giving even more preferential treatment to the oil industry).
But, setting aside the debate over whether credits are valid profits (they are), for years now we’ve been well beyond Tesla’s reliance on credits. The company has produced significant profits, regardless of credit sales, for some time now.
At least, until today. That’s no longer true – Tesla did rely on credits to become profitable in Q1. And Musk starting the call with a ridiculous rant about government handouts not only shows his hypocrisy and projection on this matter, but his detachment from reality itself. He is, truly, too stuck in the impenetrable echo chamber of his self-congratulating twitter feed to realize what an embarrassment he’s being in public – to the point of inventing shadow enemies to explain the very real, very simple explanation that people aren’t buying his company’s cars because he sucks so much.
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No matter how badly a fleet wants to electrify their operations and take advantage of reduced fuel costs and TCO, the fact remains that there are substantial up-front obstacles to commercial EV adoption … or are there? We’ve got fleet financing expert Guy O’Brien here to help walk us through it on today’s fiscally responsible episode of Quick Charge!
This conversation was motivated by the recent uncertainty surrounding EVs and EV infrastructure at the Federal level, and how that turmoil is leading some to believe they should wait to electrify. The truth? There’s never been a better time to make the switch!
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Vermont’s EV adoption has surged by an impressive 41% over the past year, with nearly 18,000 EVs now registered statewide.
According to data from Drive Electric Vermont and the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, 17,939 EVs were registered as of January 2025, increasing by 5,185 vehicles. Notably, over 12% of all new cars registered last year in Vermont had a plug. Additionally, used EVs are gaining popularity, accounting for about 15% of new EV registrations.
To put it in perspective, Vermont took six years to register its first 5,000 EVs – and the last 5,000 were added in just the previous year.
Rapid growth, expanding infrastructure
In just two years, Vermont has doubled its fleet of EVs, underscoring residents’ enthusiasm for electric driving. To support this surge, the state now boasts 459 public EV chargers, including 92 DC fast chargers.
The EV mix in Vermont is leaning increasingly toward BEVs, which represent 60% of the state’s EV fleet. The remaining 40% consists of PHEVs, offering flexible fuel options for drivers.
Top EV models in Vermont
Vermont’s favorite EVs in late 2024 included the Hyundai Ioniq 5, Nissan Ariya, Toyota RAV4 Prime PHEV, Tesla Model Y, and the Ford F-150 Lightning. These vehicles have appealed to Vermont drivers looking for reliability, performance, and practical features that work well in Vermont’s climate.
Leading the US in reducing emissions
This strong adoption of EVs earned Vermont the top ranking from the Natural Resources Defense Council for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in transportation in 2023. “It’s only getting easier for Vermonters to drive electric,” noted Michele Boomhower, Vermont’s Department of Transportation director. She emphasized the growing variety of EV models, including electric trucks and SUVs with essential features like all-wheel drive, crucial for Vermont’s climate and terrain.
Local dealerships boost EV accessibility
Nucar Automall, an auto dealer in St. Albans, is a great example of local support driving this trend. With help from Efficiency Vermont’s EV dealer incentives – receiving $25,000 through the EV Readiness Incentive program – it recently installed 15 EV chargers for new buyers and existing drivers to use.
“Having these chargers on the lot makes it easier for customers to see just how simple charging an EV can be,” said Ryan Ortiz, general manager at Nucar Automall. Ortiz also pointed out the growing affordability of EVs, thanks to more models becoming available and an increase in pre-owned EVs coming off leases.
Read more: Vermont becomes the first US state to pass a law requiring Big Oil to pay for climate damage
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