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Bitcoin acting ‘less Nasdaq,’ more like gold, despite 60% recession odds

Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and starting to trade more like precious metals, in another signal of Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe-haven asset against global economic disruption.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is showcasing its growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq — more gold” over the past two weeks, according to Alex Svanevik, co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

Bitcoin staged a 12% recovery in the two weeks leading up to April 22, despite ongoing tariff escalation between the world’s largest trading nations. The US increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 125% as of April 9, while China raised import tariffs from 84% to 125% effective April 12.

Bitcoin acting ‘less Nasdaq,’ more like gold, despite 60% recession odds
Source: Alex Svanevik

Bitcoin was “surprisingly resilient” amid the trade war compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500, but remains vulnerable to economic recession concerns, Svanevik told Cointelegraph, adding:

“We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month.”

Still, Bitcoin will continue benefiting from regulatory development and the US Bitcoin Reserve-related news, particularly with more developments on how the “Treasury is looking for ways to swap reserves into BTC,” added Svanevik.

Related: Bitcoin rally above $100K may follow US Treasury buybacks — Arthur Hayes

While the US Bitcoin reserve will initially hold BTC forfeited in government criminal cases, President Donald Trump’s executive order instructed the government to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin.

The US is looking at “many creative ways” to fund its Bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the Treasury’s gold certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the BTC reserve without selling gold, Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets said in an interview on April 14.

Related: Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle

US recession odds rise to 60%, says JPMorgan

Despite Bitcoin’s resilience against tariff concerns, a potential US recession may slash investor demand for risk assets.

The probability of a US recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report from JPMorgan, which wrote: 

“The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%.”

Bitcoin acting ‘less Nasdaq,’ more like gold, despite 60% recession odds
Global Recession Outlook. Source: JPMorgan Global Economics

JPMorgan expects the Fed to “start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 — reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026,” added the report. 

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

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League table of foreign criminals awaiting deportation and their offences set to be published

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League table of foreign criminals awaiting deportation and their offences set to be published

A league table of foreign criminals and their offences is set to be published for the first time.

The plans, due to be announced on Tuesday, will reportedly focus on those offenders awaiting deportation from the UK.

The latest data shows there were 19,244 foreign offenders awaiting deportation at the end of 2024, a rise from 17,907 when the Conservatives left office in July and 14,640 at the end of 2022.

Despite more offenders being deported since Labour came to power, the number waiting to be removed from the UK has been growing.

Factors are understood to include the early release of inmates due to prison overcrowding, instability and diplomatic problems in some countries and a backlog of legal cases appealing deportation.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the decision to publish the nationalities of foreign criminals showed Labour had “buckled” under pressure from the Conservatives to disclose the data.

The latest government statistics show there were 10,355 foreign nationals held in custody in England and Wales at the end of 2024, representing 12% of the prison population.

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The most common nationalities after British nationals were Albanian (11%), Polish (8%), Romanian (7%), which also represented the top three nationalities who were deported from the UK in 2024, according to Home Office figures.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is understood to have ordered officials to release the details by the end of the year, according to The Daily Telegraph.

The newspaper reported Ms Cooper overruled Home Office officials, who previously claimed it was too difficult to provide quality data on foreign criminals.

A Home Office source said: “Not only are we deporting foreign criminals at a rate never seen when Chris Philp and Robert Jenrick were in charge at the Home Office, but we will also be publishing far more information about that cohort of offenders than the Tories ever did.”

The source added that ministers wanted “to ensure the public is kept better informed about the number of foreign criminals awaiting deportation, where they are from and the crimes they have committed”.

In March, the government announced £5m in funding to deploy staff to 80 jails in England and Wales to speed up the deportation of foreign offenders.

Read more from Sky News:
‘Return hubs’ get UN backing
Sex offender allowed to stay in UK
Woman born in UK faces being deported

Foreign nationals sentenced to 12 months or more in prison are subject to automatic deportation, but the home secretary can also remove criminals if their presence in the UK is not considered desirable.

Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick welcomed the news, saying: “We will finally see the hard reality that mass migration is fuelling crime across our country… Frankly, the public deserved to know this [detail on foreign criminals] long ago.”

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Starmer and Zelenskyy discuss ending Russia’s ‘brutal war’ – as Putin says says he is open to bilateral talks on longer ceasefire

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Starmer and Zelenskyy discuss ending Russia's 'brutal war' - as Putin says says he is open to bilateral talks on longer ceasefire

Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about ending Russia’s “brutal war” on Ukraine in their latest phone call on Easter Monday, as Vladimir Putin said he was open to bilateral talks.

The prime minister and Ukrainian president spoke on Monday afternoon, when Sir Keir “reiterated his iron-clad support for Ukraine“.

A Downing Street spokesperson added that the prime minister “said that the UK supports Ukraine’s calls for Russia to commit to a full ceasefire and that now is the time for Putin to show he is serious about ending his brutal war”.

“They discussed the latest developments on the Coalition of the Willing, and looked forward to further progress towards a just and lasting peace,” the spokesperson added.

Mr Zelenskyy later said on social media that he had a “good and detailed conversation” with the prime minister, and added Ukrainian officials will be in London for talks on ending the war with Russia on Wednesday.

“We are ready to move forward as constructively as possible, just as we have done before, to achieve an unconditional ceasefire, followed by the establishment of a real and lasting peace,” he added.

The Ukrainian president added that the 30-hour Easter truce, which both Kyiv and Moscow accuse the other of violating, showed that Russia “are prolonging the war”.

It comes as Mr Putin proposed bilateral talks with Ukraine on a longer ceasefire, which would mark the first time Russia held such talks since a failed peace deal soon after the invasion in 2022.

Speaking to a state TV reporter, the Russian president said: “We always have a positive attitude towards a truce, which is why we came up with such an initiative (the Easter truce), especially since we are talking about the bright Easter days.”

When asked about Mr Zelenskyy’s calls to extend the 30-hour ceasefire into a 30-day pause on civilian targets, he added: “This is all a subject for careful study, perhaps even bilaterally. We do not rule this out.”

The Ukrainian president said on Sunday evening that the Russian army had “violated Putin’s ceasefire more than 2,000 times” during the day, and accused Russia of “failing” to “uphold its own promise of a ceasefire”.

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From Saturday: Why Putin offered an Easter truce?

It also comes after Donald Trump has said he hopes Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal this week,” after he and his secretary of state Marco Rubio warned that the US will walk away from efforts to broker a peace deal unless there are clear signs of progress soon.

The US president said on his Truth Social platform that both countries would “start to do big business” with the US after ending the war.

Read more from Sky News:
Murder arrest after woman stabbed to death
Who could be the next pope?

Last month, Ukraine accepted Mr Trump’s proposal for a 30-day truce, but Mr Putin refused to back a full 30-day ceasefire, saying crucial issues of verification had not been sorted out.

He then said he would agree not to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. However, both sides have accused each other of breaking the moratorium on attacks on energy targets and at sea.

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Can Rachel Reeves come up trumps in Washington?

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Can Rachel Reeves come up trumps in Washington?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈

Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy look at the day ahead in British politics.

Returning from an Easter break for a new season, Sam and Anne begin by discussing how British and global politics will react to the death of Pope Francis.

They discuss the Pope’s own role in politics around the world and the legacy he leaves behind.

Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves is heading to Washington ahead of her first IMF spring meetings, amid pessimistic predictions for the UK’s own economy.

Sam and Anne discuss whether the chancellor can bring Trump’s tariffs on UK imports down and keep hopes high for a US-UK trade deal.

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