Bitcoin acting ‘less Nasdaq,’ more like gold, despite 60% recession odds
Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and starting to trade more like precious metals, in another signal of Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe-haven asset against global economic disruption.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is showcasing its growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq — more gold” over the past two weeks, according to Alex Svanevik, co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.
Bitcoin staged a 12% recovery in the two weeks leading up to April 22, despite ongoing tariff escalation between the world’s largest trading nations. The US increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 125% as of April 9, while China raised import tariffs from 84% to 125% effective April 12.
Bitcoin was “surprisingly resilient” amid the trade war compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500, but remains vulnerable to economic recession concerns, Svanevik told Cointelegraph, adding:
“We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month.”
Still, Bitcoin will continue benefiting from regulatory development and the US Bitcoin Reserve-related news, particularly with more developments on how the “Treasury is looking for ways to swap reserves into BTC,” added Svanevik.
Related: Bitcoin rally above $100K may follow US Treasury buybacks — Arthur Hayes
While the US Bitcoin reserve will initially hold BTC forfeited in government criminal cases, President Donald Trump’s executive order instructed the government to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin.
🇺🇸 LATEST: Executive Director of Digital Assets Bo Hines said the US government may buy Bitcoin using tariff revenue. pic.twitter.com/Gfc2HiEJoL
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 15, 2025
The US is looking at “many creative ways” to fund its Bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the Treasury’s gold certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the BTC reserve without selling gold, Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets said in an interview on April 14.
Related: Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle
US recession odds rise to 60%, says JPMorgan
Despite Bitcoin’s resilience against tariff concerns, a potential US recession may slash investor demand for risk assets.
The probability of a US recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report from JPMorgan, which wrote:
“The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%.”
JPMorgan expects the Fed to “start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 — reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026,” added the report.
Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19
Donald Trump has reignited his row with London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan after calling him a “nasty person” who has done “a terrible job”.
During an hour-long news conference with Sir Keir Starmer in Scotland, the US president hit out at the Labour mayor, who has responded with his own snipey remarks.
Trump latest: US leader gives Putin new deadline to end war
Asked if he would visit London during his state visit in September, Mr Trump said: “I will, I’m not a fan of your mayor, I think he’s done a terrible job.
“A nasty person, I think.”
The prime minister then interrupted and said: “He’s a friend of mine.”
But the president added: “I think he’s done a terrible job but I will certainly visit London, I hope so.”
Sir Sadiq’s spokesperson then released a statement saying: “Sadiq is delighted that President Trump wants to come to the greatest city in the world.
“He’d see how our diversity makes us stronger not weaker; richer, not poorer.
“Perhaps these are the reasons why a record number of Americans have applied for British citizenship under his presidency.”
Sir Sadiq Khan was knighted in June. Pic: PA
They noted that Sir Sadiq has won three mayoral elections, including when Mr Trump lost the US election in 2020.
This is not the first time Mr Trump and Sir Sadiq have locked horns.
Read more:
US and EU agree trade deal
Scots divided as Trump heads to Turnberry
The PM told Mr Trump that Sir Sadiq is a friend of his – seen here laying wreaths for the anniversary of the 7/7 bombings. Pic: PA
During his first presidential term, Mr Trump called the London mayor a “stone cold loser who should focus on crime in London”.
Sir Sadiq then described Mr Trump as a “poster boy for racists”.
And in November 2024, after Mr Trump won his second term, Sir Sadiq said many Londoners would be “fearful” about what it would “mean for democracy”.
However, as Sir Keir tried to show diplomacy with Mr Trump after becoming PM, Sir Sadiq said he “wanted to work closely with the American president” ahead of his inauguration in January.
The London mayor said as somebody “who believes in democracy, and voting and elections, we should recognise the fact that Donald Trump is the elected president of the United States”.
But he added: “Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this president is different from the last time he was president.”
The SEC delayed decisions on the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF and Grayscale’s Solana Trust, extending review periods as the US Congress moves with crypto regulation.
The US House of Representatives will be in recess for the month of August, but the Senate still has a week of business to address two crypto bills before breaking.
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