Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and starting to trade more like precious metals, in another signal of Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe-haven asset against global economic disruption.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is showcasing its growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq — more gold” over the past two weeks, according to Alex Svanevik, co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.
Bitcoin staged a 12% recovery in the two weeks leading up to April 22, despite ongoing tariff escalation between the world’s largest trading nations. The US increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 125% as of April 9, while China raised import tariffs from 84% to 125% effective April 12.
Bitcoin was “surprisingly resilient” amid the trade war compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500, but remains vulnerable to economic recession concerns, Svanevik told Cointelegraph, adding:
“We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month.”
Still, Bitcoin will continue benefiting from regulatory development and the US Bitcoin Reserve-related news, particularly with more developments on how the “Treasury is looking for ways to swap reserves into BTC,” added Svanevik.
While the US Bitcoin reserve will initially hold BTC forfeited in government criminal cases, President Donald Trump’s executive order instructed the government to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin.
🇺🇸 LATEST: Executive Director of Digital Assets Bo Hines said the US government may buy Bitcoin using tariff revenue. pic.twitter.com/Gfc2HiEJoL
The US is looking at “many creative ways” to fund its Bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the Treasury’s gold certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the BTC reserve without selling gold, Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets said in an interview on April 14.
Despite Bitcoin’s resilience against tariff concerns, a potential US recession may slash investor demand for risk assets.
The probability of a US recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report from JPMorgan, which wrote:
“The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%.”
Global Recession Outlook. Source: JPMorgan Global Economics
JPMorgan expects the Fed to “start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 — reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026,” added the report.
Sir Keir Starmer will on Monday join world leaders at a historic summit in Egypt to witness the signing of the Gaza peace plan to end two years of conflict, bloodshed and suffering, that has cost tens of thousands of lives and turned Gaza into a wasteland.
Travelling over to Egypt, flanked by his national security advisor Jonathan Powell, the prime minister told me it was a “massive moment” and one that is genuinely historic.
In the flurry of the following 48 hours, Mr Starmer and another twenty or so leaders were invited to Egypt to bear witness to the signing of this deal, with many of them deserving some credit for the effort they made to bring this deal around, not least the leaders of Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, who pressed Hamas to sign up to this deal.
On Monday, the remaining 20 living hostages are finally set to be released, along with the bodies of another 28 who were either killed or died in captivity, and aid is due to flow back into a starving Gaza.
Some 1,200 Israelis were killed on 7 October 2023, with another 250 taken hostage. In the subsequent war, most of Gaza’s two million population has been displaced. More than 67,000 Gazans have been killed, according to Palestinian health officials
Then, the signing ceremony is due to take place on Monday afternoon in Sharm el-Sheikh. It will be a momentous moment after a long and bloody war.
More on Israel-hamas War
Related Topics:
But it is only just the beginning of a long process to rebuild Gaza and try to secure a lasting peace in the region.
The immediate focus for the UK and other nations will be to get aid into Gaza with the UK committing £20m on Monday for water, sanitation and hygiene services for Gazans.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:25
Humanitarian aid rolls into Gaza
But the bigger focus for the UK and other European allies is what happens after the hostages are released and Israel withdraws its troops.
Because what happens next is a much bigger and more complicated task: rebuilding Gaza; turning it into a terrorist-free zone; governing Gaza – the current plan is for a temporary apolitical committee; creating an international stabilisation force and all the tensions that could bring about – which troops each side would allow in; a commitment for Israel not to occupy or annex Gaza, even as Netanyahu makes plain his opposition to that plan.
The scale of the challenge is matched by the scale of devastation caused by this brutal war.
The prime minister will tomorrow set out his ambition for the UK to play a leading role in the next phase of the peace plan.
Back home the UK is hosting a three-day conference on Gaza’s recovery and reconstruction.
Last week, France hosted European diplomats and key figures from Middle Eastern countries, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar and later this week, the German chancellor is hoping to organise a conference on the reconstruction of Gaza with the Egyptians.
But in reality, European leaders know the key to phase two remains the key to phase one: and that’s Donald Trump.
As one UK figure put it to me over the weekend: “There is lots of praise, rightly, for the US president, who got this over the line, but the big challenge for us post-war is implementing the plan. Clearly, Arab partners are concerned the US will lose focus”.
The prime minister knows this and has made a point, at every point, to praise Mr Trump.
Image: Bridget Phillipson and Mike Huckabee. Pics: Sky/AP
His cabinet minister Bridget Phillipson learned that diplomatic lesson the hard way on Sunday when she was publicly lambasted by the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee for suggesting to my colleague Trevor Phillips that the UK “had played a key role behind the scenes” and failed to mention Mr Trump by name.
“I assure you she is delusional,” tweeted Governor Huckabee. “She can thank @realDonaldTrump anytime just to set the record straight”.
On Monday, leaders will rightly be praising Mr Trump for securing the breakthrough to stop the fighting and get the remaining hostages home.
Image: People hug next in Hostages Square. Pic: Reuters
But this is only the beginning of a very long journey ahead to push through the rest of the 19-point plan and stop the region from falling back into conflict.
Britain has, I am told, been playing a role behind the scenes. The PM’s national security adviser Mr Powell was in Egypt last week and has been in daily touch with his US counterpart Steve Witkoff, according to government sources. Next week the King of Jordan will come to the UK.
Part of the UK’s task will be to get more involved, with the government and European partners keen to get further European representation on Trump’s temporary governance committee for Gaza, which Tony Blair (who was not recommended or endorsed by the UK) is on and Mr Trump will chair.
The committee will include other heads of states and members, including qualified Palestinians and international experts.
As for the former prime minister’s involvement, there hasn’t been an overt ringing endorsement from the UK government.
It’s helpful to have Mr Blair at the table because he can communicate back to the current government, but equally, as one diplomatic source put it to me: “While a lot of people in the Middle East acknowledge his experience, expertise and contact book, they don’t like him and we need – sooner rather than later – other names included that Gulf partners can get behind.”
On Monday it will be the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey that sign off on the peace plan they directly negotiated, as other Middle Eastern and European leaders, who have flown into Sharm el-Sheikh to bear witness, look on.
But in the coming days and weeks, there will need to be a big international effort, led by Mr Trump, not just to secure the peace, but to keep it.