Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge – and she’s not alone
There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.
Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.
Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.
Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?
Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?
Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.
That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.
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Could Trump make a deal with UK?
Are we heading for a recession?
The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.
Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.
By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.
Others are less optimistic.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”
She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.
She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”
IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters
Don’t poke the bear
It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.
That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.
Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.
Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.
The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.
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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.
It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.
“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”
The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.
That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.
How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.
Nissan is set to announce a leap in its cost-cutting plans that will see 20,000 jobs go globally, according to reports in Japan.
The carmaker, which employs around 6,000 workers at its sprawling manufacturing operations in Sunderland, had already let it be known last November that 9,000 roles would be going amid weak sales and rising costs.
But Japanese broadcaster NHK said on Monday it expected that total to more than double.
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Nissan, which was yet to comment on the claim, is due to reveal full year results covering the 12 months to March on Tuesday morning.
They are expected to show a net loss of up to £3.8bn due to a series of writedowns on the value of its operations.
They will be the first results Nissan has declared since the appointment of a new chief executive last month.
Ivan Espinosa issued a “significant” downgrade to Nissan’s outlook just three weeks ago.
If the job cuts report is true, it would amount to a 15% reduction in the company’s worldwide workforce.
New models of the Nissan Juke being assembled at the Sunderland plant. Pic:PA
It is not known if the Sunderland production facilities form part of any planned job cuts or production reductions, of up to 20%, that were reported.
Nissan has, on several occasions since Brexit, called the plant’s future into question before proceeding with investment plans.
It has invested £2bn in Sunderland since 2023 alone.
The company secured UK government money this year for a new electric powertrain manufacturing facility in Sunderland.
But a senior Nissan executive, Alan Johnson, warned more aid was needed just last month, arguing that the UK was “not a competitive place” to build cars.
Nissan, like rivals, is facing challenges on many fronts.
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US trade tariffs of 25% on all car imports has exacerbated pressure on its supply chain and sales.
The latter has been struggling due to weaker-than-anticipated electric car uptake.
But the vast majority of its cars made in the UK will be subject to a tariff of just 10% after the UK-US trade deal agreed last week.
It does not currently send Sunderland-made cars to the United States. Most are for export to Europe and the domestic UK market.
The US and China have agreed to slash trade tariffs on each other, a move Donald Trump has said was part of a “total reset” in relations.
The president said the 90-day truce followed “very friendly” talks between the two sides in Switzerland over the weekend and those discussions would continue..
“China was being hurt very badly. They were closing up factories they were having a lot of unrest and they were very happy to do something with us”, he told reporters at the White House.
The breakthrough was announced early on Monday – to the delight of fincial markets – by the leader of the US delegation, treasury secretary Scott Bessent.
US trade representative Jamieson Greer confirmed so-called reciprocal tariffs were now at 10% each.
In real terms, it meant the US is reducing its 145% tariff to 30% on Chinese goods. A tariff of 20% had been implemented on China when President Donald Trump took office, over what his administration said was a failure to stop illegal drugs entering the US.
China has agreed to reduce its 125% retaliatory tariffs to 10% on US goods.
Sector-specific tariffs, such as the 25% tax on cars, aluminium and steel, remain in place.
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Tariffs, taxes on imports of more than 100%, had been imposed on both sides. China was the only country exempt from a 90-day pause on the “retaliatory” tariffs above the base 10% levies applied by America.
Major retailers had been warning Mr Trump of empty shelves as US importers pause shipments.
Mr Bessent said after a weekend of negotiations in Switzerland, the countries had a mechanism for continued talks.
It’s the second major trade announcement made by the US in the last week, after a deal was secured with the UK on Thursday.
The move signals a willingness from the Americans to make deals on tariffs.
Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war
Of all the fronts in Donald Trump’s trade war, none was as dramatic and economically threatening as the sky-high tariffs he imposed on China.
There are a couple of reasons: first, because China is and was the single biggest importer of goods into the US and, second, because of the sheer height of the tariffs imposed by the White House in recent months.
In short, tariffs of over 100% were tantamount to a total embargo on goods coming from the United States’ main trading partner.
That would have had enormous economic implications, not just for the US but every other country around the world (these are the world’s biggest and second-biggest economies, after all).
So the truce announced on Monday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent is undoubtedly a very big deal indeed.
Welcomed news
The news was received positively by Asian stock markets on Monday as major indexes were up.
In China, the Shanghai Composite stock index rose 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component gained 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up nearly 3%.
In countries across Asia, benchmark stock indexes also rose. Korea’s Kospi grew 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.8%, while India’s Nifty 50 index of most valuable companies gained more than 3%.
US stocks rose sharply at the open.
The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq saw their biggest leaps in more than a month, rising almost 3% and 4% respectively.
The market rally was visible in Europe too.
The dollar – hit in recent weeks by US recession speculation – was up more than a cent versus the pound while oil prices also rallied. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was 3.5% higher at $66 a barrel.
What next?
When asked by journalists about what the US wanted to see from China in the 90s, Mr Bessent said, “As long as there is good faith effort, engagement and constructive dialogue, then we will keep moving forward.”
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Explained: The US-UK trade deal
The UK came to the front of the line for deals, Mr Bessent added, “as our oldest ally”.
Switzerland had also moved to the “front of the queue”, he said, while the EU has been slower.
As with the other counties subject to 90-day pauses, a permanent deal will need to be reached, but confidence across the world is likely to have been boosted.
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Businesses now need a clear timetable and roadmap for future negotiations under the newly announced economic and trade consultation mechanism, said Andrew Wilson, the deputy secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce.
“The credibility of that process for resolving underlying frictions in the Sino-US economic relationship will be mission-critical in terms of restoring business confidence.”
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