Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge – and she’s not alone
There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.
Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.
Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.
Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?
Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?
Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.
That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.
Read more:
PM and Trump step up trade talks
Ed Conway on the impact of US tariffs
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Could Trump make a deal with UK?
Are we heading for a recession?
The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.
Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.
By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.
Others are less optimistic.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”
She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.
She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”
IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters
Don’t poke the bear
It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.
That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.
Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.
Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.
The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.
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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.
It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.
“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”
The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.
That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.
How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.
Business
In Halifax’s night-time economy, no one is holding back over what is required in the budget
In the upstairs bar of a slick new brewery, the cheese-lovers of Halifax are paying “homage to fromage”.
It is one of the first events in the historic West Yorkshire town for the monthly cheese club and there is a decent turn-out.
Sky News visited Halifax’s clubs, bars and restaurants to get an insight into people’s priorities
The night-time economy in Halifax is a useful measure of how the landscapes of our town and cities have changed
Discussion of Wednesday’s budget is not as popular as an accompaniment to the cheese as the selection of wines. But no one holds back on what is required of the chancellor.
Natalie Rogers, who runs her own small business with her partner, said there needs to be focus.
Small business owner Natalie Rogers wants to see more investment in local industries
“I think investing in small businesses, investing in these northern towns, where at one time we were making all the money for the country, can we not get back to that? We’re not investing in local industries.”
At the next table, with a group of friends, Ali Fletcher said there needs to be bigger targets.
“I think wealth inequality is a major problem. The divide is getting wider. For me, a wealth tax is absolutely critical. We need to address this question of ‘Is there any money left?’. There’s plenty of money, it’s all about choices that government make.”
At this monthly cheese club, people told us about their priorities ahead of the budget
The evening’s cheese tasting was being marshalled by Lisa Kempster. “The impression I get from talking to people is there’s a lot of uncertainty, but when you ask them what they’re uncertain about, they’re not really sure, there’s just a general feeling of uncertainty and being cautious.”
Ali Fletcher reckons wealth inequality is a major problem
Read more:
Budget will be big – and Starmer has some serious convincing to do
Reeves vows to ‘grip the cost of living’
What tax rises could chancellor announce?
This corner of Halifax, close to the town’s historic Piece Hall, is buzzing with clubs, bars and restaurants, trying hard to defy the crunch in the night-time economy. It is a useful measure of how the landscapes of our town and cities has changed.
“Whenever there’s a budget, for a few days afterwards, there’s a drop off in trade,” said Michael Ainsworth, owner of the Graystone Unity, a bar and music venue in the town.
“I accept the government needs to raise money but, in this day and age, there’s better ways to go about doing that, like closing tax loopholes for the huge businesses to operate up with banking arrangements outside the UK.”
Michael Ainsworth owns a bar and music venue and thinks the chancellor needs to close tax loopholes
In the bar, a folk singer is going through a quirky and caustic set. In the basement, a punk band called Edward Molby is considerably louder.
On a sofa in the main bar, recent graduates Josh Kinsella and Ruby Firth, newly arrived in Halifax because of its more affordable housing, pinpoint what they want on Wednesday.
“Can we stop triple-locking the pensions, please? Stop giving pensioners everything. For God’s sake, I know they have hard times in the 70s and the 80s, but it just feels like we’re now paying for everyone else.”
Josh Kinsella and Ruby Firth feel there’s too much focus on pensioners
Ben Randm is a familiar face at the bar and well known on the music scene with his band, Silver Tongued Rascals.
“Everyday people are seen as statistics, we’re always the afterthought. When the cuts are done, we’re always impeded and the ramifications that has for people’s livelihoods, for people’s mental health, for people’s passion and drive… it’s such a struggle.”
He, like many in the night-time economy sector, wants extra help for hospitality and venues that, he says, provide a vital community link.
Ben Randm who has his own band reckons everyday people are ‘always the afterthought’
David Van Gestel chose Halifax to open the third branch of MAMIL, a bar in jokey honour of those cycling “middle-aged men in Lycra”. On a busy quiz night, he said venues had to provide something different to get people out of their homes.
“I think the government needs to start putting some initiatives in place. They talk about growth but the reality is that the only thing we’re seeing grow is our costs.”
There’s a lot going on at TikTok right now.
As well as online safety updates and new features, the company is introducing sweeping changes to how it moderates the platform’s content.
At the same time, there’s an intense focus on online safety, particularly here in the UK.
With all that going on, Sky News got a rare, exclusive sit-down with one of TikTok’s senior safety executives, Ali Law.
The increasing role of artificial intelligence
One of the biggest changes happening at TikTok is around artificial intelligence.
Like most social media companies, TikTok has used AI to help moderate its platform for years – it is useful for sifting out content that obviously violates policies, and TikTok says it now removes around 85% of violative content without getting a human involved.
File pic: Reuters
Now, it is increasing its use of AI and will be relying less on human moderators. So what’s changed that means TikTok is confident AI can keep young users safe?
“One of the things that has changed is really the sophistication of those models,” said Mr Law, who is TikTok’s director of public policy and government affairs for northern Europe. He explained that AI is now better able to understand context.
“A great example is being able to identify a weapon.”
Whereas previous models may have been able to identify a knife, newer models can tell the difference between a knife being used in a cooking video and a knife in a graphic, violent encounter, according to Mr Law.
“We set a high benchmark when it comes to rolling out new moderation technology.
“In particular, we make sure that we satisfy ourselves that the output of existing moderation processes is either matched or exceeded by anything that we’re doing on a new basis.
“We also make sure the changes are introduced on a gradual basis with human oversight so that if there isn’t a level of delivery in line with what we expect, we can address that.”
Human moderator jobs being cut
That increasing use of AI means TikTok will rely less on its network of tens of thousands of human moderators around the world.
TikTok moderators and union workers protested outside the company’s London headquarters over job cuts
In London alone, the company is proposing to cut more than 400 moderator jobs, although there are reports a number of those jobs will be rehired in other countries.
On 30 October, Paul Nowak, general secretary of the TUC union, said “time and time again” TikTok had “failed to provide a good enough answer” about how the cuts would impact the safety of UK users.
Ali Law speaks to Sky News from TikTok’s European headquarters in Dublin
When Sky News asked if Mr Law could ensure UK users’ safety after the cuts, he said the company’s focus is “always on outcomes”.
“Our focus is on making sure the platform is as safe as possible.
“We will make deployments of the most advanced technology in order to achieve that, working with the many thousands of trust and safety professionals that we will have at TikTok around the world on an ongoing basis.”
Dame Chi Onwurah speaks at the House of Commons. File pic: Reuters
The UK’s science, technology and innovation committee, led by Labour MP Chi Onwurah, has issued a probe into the cuts, with Ms Onwurah calling them “deeply concerning”.
She said AI “just isn’t reliable or safe enough to take on work like this” and there was a “real risk” to UK users.
However, Mr Law said that, as a parent himself, he is “also highly concerned and highly interested in issues of online safety”.
“That’s why I’m so confident in the changes that we are making at TikTok in terms of content moderation as a whole,” he said.
“The power really comes in the combination of the best technology and human experts working together, and that still is the case at TikTok and it will be going forwards as well.”
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UK’s online safety rules: One month on
New wellness tools
The interview came at the end of an online safety event at TikTok’s Dublin office, its European headquarters.
During the conference, the company announced a number of new features designed to increase user safety, including a new in-app Time and Wellbeing hub for TikTok users.
The hub is designed with the Digital Wellness Lab at Boston Children’s Hospital and gamifies mindfulness techniques like affirmations, not using TikTok during the night and lowering your screentime.
Ali Law, TikTok’s director of public policy and government affairs for northern Europe
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Cori Stott, executive director of the digital wellness lab, said many people use their phones to “set their wellbeing, to reset their emotions, to find these safe spaces, and also to find entertainment”.
The hub was built as part of the TikTok app because young people want wellness tools “where they already are”, without needing to go to a different app, she said.
Still, there are plenty of reports suggesting that phone use and social media has a damaging effect on young people’s mental health… is TikTok trying to solve a problem of its own creation?
“If you are a teen on the app, you will load up and find that you have, if you’re under 16, a private profile, no access to direct messaging, a screen time limit set at an hour, [and at] 10pm sleep hour suggestion,” said Mr Law.
“So the experience is one that does try and promote a balanced approach to using the app and make sure that people have the options to set their own guardrails around this,” he said.
“I think the other thing I’d say is that the content on TikTok is, in the main, inspiring, surprising, creative.”
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