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There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

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Could Trump make a deal with UK?

Are we heading for a recession?

The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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Carlyle seizes control of online retailer Very Group

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Carlyle seizes control of online retailer Very Group

The unravelling of the Barclay family’s business empire will continue this week when Carlyle, the US-based investment giant, formally takes control of The Very Group, one of Britain’s biggest online retailers.

Sky News has learnt that the company, which boasts annual revenues of over £2bn and is chaired by Nadhim Zahawi, the former Conservative chancellor, will announce on Monday that Carlyle has become its controlling shareholder.

IMI, the Abu Dhabi-based media group which has been part of efforts to take control of The Daily Telegraph since 2023, will remain a lender to The Very Group.

Sources said the company’s directors had held a board meeting on Sunday to ratify the changes.

The transaction brings to an end more than 20 years of the Barclay family’s involvement with the business, which was known as Littlewoods when it last changed hands in 2002 in a £750m deal.

Nasdaq-listed Carlyle injected several hundred million pounds into Very Group’s capital structure, paving the way for it to take ownership control under the terms of the financing.

Sources said the change of control would provide the online retailer with a stronger capital base and greater financial flexibility to support a concerted growth effort.

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Previously known as Shop Direct, Very Group employs thousands of people, and sells general merchandise under the Very and Littlewoods brands, encompassing electrical goods, homewares, fashion and toys.

It has 4.4million customers and operates a major consumer finance business to help shoppers manage their payments.

Mr Zahawi was appointed as the company’s chairman last year, days after he announced that he was standing down as the MP for Stratford-on-Avon at the July 2024 general election.

He replaced Aidan Barclay, a senior member of the family which has owned the business for 23 years.

In its latest full-year results, group chief executive Robbie Feather announced a 16% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to £307m.

Carlyle’s move to take control of Very Group was revealed by Sky News in the summer.

Earlier this year, the company borrowed a further £600m from Arini, a Mayfair-based fund, as it sought to stave off a cash crunch and buy itself breathing space.

The Barclay family drew up plans to hire bankers to run an auction of Very Group earlier this year, but a process was never formally launched.

Retail industry insiders have long speculated that the business was likely to be valued in the region of £2.5bn – below the valuation which the Barclay family was holding out for in an auction which took place several years ago.

The Barclays, who used to own London’s Ritz hotel, have already lost control of other corporate assets including the Yodel parcel delivery service, as well as the Telegraph newspapers.

Carlyle, which declined to comment, could hold onto the business for a significant period before looking to offload it.

Very Group also declined to comment on Sunday.

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New compensation scheme for Post Office victims is ‘half-baked’, Sir Alan Bates warns

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New compensation scheme for Post Office victims is 'half-baked', Sir Alan Bates warns

Sir Alan Bates has told Sky News that the government’s new Capture Redress Scheme is “half-baked”.

The Post Office scandal campaigner, who may also be a victim of Capture, accused officials of not learning lessons from previous compensation failures.

Capture was a piece of faulty computer software used in about 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999 before the infamous Horizon scandal.

Many sub-postmasters made up potentially false accounting shortfalls from their own pocket, with dozens, at least, convicted of stealing.

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Sir Alan Bates reaches settlement with govt

Sir Alan welcomed the launch of the first ever Capture Redress Scheme last week “in general”.

However, he added: “It does seem to have gone off half-baked with almost none of the lessons that should have been learnt from the failures of the other Postmaster Schemes having been applied when compiling it.”

Sir Alan Bates, who has settled his redress claim with the government in connection with Horizon, also confirmed he may have been a victim of Capture.

He said: “I have documentation which shows that a PC running Capture was part of the inventory when we purchased our sub-post office and I know it was used until it was replaced by the infamous Horizon system toward the end of 2000.”

Despite this, Sir Alan said that – with the information he has about the scheme and making a claim – “it does seem I may not be able submit one”.

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Will Post Office victims be cleared?

Under the current rules, it appears claimants must submit a fully itemised claim before the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) will decide if they qualify – a process Sir Alan described as “mad”.

“We could spend a year compiling a claim only for the DBT to say we weren’t eligible in the first place.”

He called for a two-stage process: first to confirm eligibility, then to allow victims to build their case with legal support – a model he says would save time, money and avoid unnecessary legal costs.

The revelation that Sir Alan may have been a Capture victim – and didn’t realise until later on – raises fresh concerns about how many others remain unaware.

In a statement to Sky News, a government spokesperson said: “After over two decades of fighting for justice, victims will finally receive redress for being impacted by the Capture software and we pay tribute to all of those who have worked to expose this scandal.

“All eligible applicants will receive an interim payment of £10,000. In exceptional circumstances, the independent panel can award above £300,000, which is not a cap.

“We have been in contact with Sir Alan’s legal representative and stand ready to provide further information to help all claimants.”

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‘This waiting is just unbearable’

It comes as documents seen by Sky News suggest that the Post Office knew about faults in Capture computer software before it was rolled out in 1992.

Notes from a meeting of “the Capture steering group” held in February – months before the system was introduced to branches – described files as being “corrupted”.

It highlighted that: “If the power was switched off when a file was open it would be corrupted. In this situation data should be checked and reinput.”

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‘All we want is her name cleared’

Another fault mentioned in the meeting notes was if “part of the system was closed early, to produce client summaries any additional transactions might not be captured for that day”.

“If a high error rate was detected the software would need to be reworked.”

A document called “Capture Troubleshooting Guide” from April 1993 – over a year after the steering group noted faults – again described “corrupt data” such as incorrect transaction values.

It concluded that the “cause” of this was “switching off the computer or a power cut (even if only for a few seconds) whilst in the Capture programme”.

It also put forward instructions to remedy the fault.

Rupert Lloyd-Thomas, campaigner for Capture victims, said: “The Post Office knew … in 1992, long before the launch, that Capture could be zapped by a power cut.

“They did nothing about it.”

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Steve Marston
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Steve Marston

Steve Marston, who was convicted of stealing from his Post Office branch in 1998 after using Capture, said the information “didn’t come as any surprise”.

“They’ve known since the very beginning it should never have been released,” he added.

A Post Office spokesperson said: “We have been very concerned about the reported problems relating to the use of the Capture software and are sincerely sorry for past failings that have caused suffering to postmasters.

“In September 2024, Kroll published an independent report which examined the Capture software that was used in some Post Office branches in the 1990s and we fully co-operated with Kroll throughout their investigation.

“We are determined that past wrongs are put right and are continuing to support the government’s work in this area.

“Post Office has very limited records relating to this system and we encourage anyone who has Capture related material to share it with Post Office and the Criminal Cases Review Commission.”

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Why a Sky-ITV deal makes sense in a shifting entertainment landscape

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Why a Sky-ITV deal makes sense in a shifting entertainment landscape

The proposed £1.6bn takeover of a big chunk of ITV by Sky would be the biggest consolidation in British broadcasting in more than 20 years, and reflects fundamental changes in viewing habits and commercial realities.

For Sky, a deal that brings together Ant and Dec with Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher would make it the UK’s largest commercial broadcaster, and strengthen its hand in the battle with US streaming giants that have upended the entertainment business.

For ITV’s shareholders, who have seen the value of their investment decline as advertising revenue, like viewers, has migrated online, it may be a chance to say, “I own a terrestrial broadcaster, get me out of here.”

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Neither Sky or ITV would publicly discuss who made the initial offer, and both stress that talks are at an early stage, but privately, both sides emphasise the mutual opportunity.

For Sky, owned by US giant Comcast since 2018, there is the opportunity to create a larger pool of content and subscribers.

The deal would see it acquire ITV’s media and entertainment business, including its free-to-air channels and public sector broadcaster (PSB) licence, which runs to 2034, as well as the ITVX streaming platform, which has 40 million registered users.

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Ant and Dec host I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! on ITV Pic: ITV
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Ant and Dec host I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here! on ITV Pic: ITV

The ITV brand is likely to be retained, and the two companies run separately, but Sky would look to leverage its commercial and technology strengths.

ITV’s PSB licence includes the requirement that ITV’s app be “available, prominent and easily accessible” on online platforms, a crucial shop window as viewers access content directly.

Added to Sky’s existing 13 million subscribers for largely pay-walled content in the UK, it would add muscle as the broadcaster competes for attention, subscription revenue and advertiser spend.

The acquisition would be a restatement of commitment to Sky from Comcast. Having paid £31bn for Sky in a bidding war with Disney seven years ago, it wrote down that investment by more than £6bn in 2022, and earlier this year announced the sale of Sky Deutschland.

While it is navigating the conclusion of exclusivity deals with content providers, including with HBO that gave it rights to hits including Succession, the £5bn renewal of Premier League rights this season underlined the centrality of sport to Sky’s offer.

Sky would bring its own content and rights, such as those for Premier League football, to the table. Pic: PA
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Sky would bring its own content and rights, such as those for Premier League football, to the table. Pic: PA


Scale matters because even companies as prominent in the UK as Sky and ITV are competing with giants, both for audiences and advertisers.

Netflix has 301 million subscribers worldwide and annual revenues approaching $40bn. Amazon, the largest retailer in the world, is now an entertainment content provider. In the US, Warner Bros. Discovery is considering a sale, having already rejected reported offers worth more than $60bn.

Google and Meta, meanwhile, gobble up to 60% of all UK advertising spend, a shift in the last decade that has hit ITV particularly hard.

US platforms dominate the streaming space. Pic: iStock
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US platforms dominate the streaming space. Pic: iStock

When it was founded 70 years ago, the third channel was the only way advertisers could reach television viewers. Today, it and Sky are competing for a slice of a shrinking pie, with one source citing an estimate that their combined UK advertising revenue is nine times smaller than Google and Meta’s.

Any proposed deal will face regulatory scrutiny from Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority, but both parties will argue that these commercial realities mean consolidation would strengthen the broadcast sector rather than weaken it.

ITV still generates critical and commercial hits and live moments. Last year, the largest audiences for sport (England’s Euro 2024 semi-final), drama (Mr Bates v the Post Office) and entertainment (I’m a Celebrity) were all on ITV.

Translating that into a commercial model that satisfies investors has proved difficult, with the general drift of the UK economy not helping. The 19% bump in the share price on news of the proposed takeover may be a welcome series finale.

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