There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.
Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.
Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.
Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?
Image: Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?
Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?
Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.
That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.
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Could Trump make a deal with UK?
Are we heading for a recession?
The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.
Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.
By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.
Others are less optimistic.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”
She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.
She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”
Image: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters
Don’t poke the bear
It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.
That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.
Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.
Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.
The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.
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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.
It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.
“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”
The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.
That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.
How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.
Economists polled by the Reuters news agency had predicted that October GDP would grow by 0.1%.
The figures, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), represent more bad news for the chancellor over the state of the UK economy.
Commentators had warned that consumer spending was likely to be restrained in the run-up to November’s budget, amid concerns about the impact of Rachel Reeves’s potential measures on households and businesses.
UK GDP has also been hit hard by disruption to car production caused by a cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover.
The ONS said that during October, the UK’s services sector fell by 0.3%, while construction was down 0.6%. However, production grew by 1.1%.
It found that GDP on a rolling three-month basis, to October, also fell by 0.1%.
The ONS’s director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown, said: “Within production, there was continued weakness in car manufacturing, with the industry only making a slight recovery in October from the substantial fall in output seen in the previous month.
“Overall services showed no growth in the latest three months, continuing the recent trend of slowing in this sector. There were falls in wholesale and scientific research, offset by growth in rental and leasing and retail.”
Scott Gardner, from banking giant JP Morgan, said that despite expectations of a return to growth, the economy continued to “battle a period of inconsistent productivity”.
He added: “Speculation about potential budget announcements had a numbing effect on consumers and businesses in the lead up to the chancellor’s speech at the end of November.”
Suren Thiru, from the Institute of Chartered Accountants, said the data increased the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting interest rates next week.
He said: “With these downbeat figures likely to further fuel fears among rate-setters over the health of the UK economy, a December policy loosening looks nailed on, particularly given the likely deflationary impact of the budget.”
Figures ‘extremely concerning’
Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC, said that while some of the blame could be attributed to the Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack, “the bigger story is that speculation around the autumn budget kept households and businesses in wait-and-see mode”.
He added: “Given the timing of the budget, November’s GDP print is likely to look similarly subdued before any post-budget effects start to show up.”
Sir Mel Stride, the Tory shadow chancellor, described the figures as “extremely concerning”, claiming they were “a direct result of Labour’s economic mismanagement”.
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We are determined to defy the forecasts on growth and create good jobs, so everyone is better off, while also helping us invest in better public services.”
The first-ever Capture case has been delayed at the Court of Appeal as the Post Office asks for an extension to respond, Sky News has learned.
Pat Owen, a former sub postmistress who has since passed away, was convicted of stealing in 1998 based on evidence from computer software.
The system, known as Capture, was used in up to 2,500 branches in the 1990s, before the infamous Horizon system was introduced.
Hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongfully convicted between 1999 and 2015 as part of the Horizon scandal.
Earlier this year, Sky News unearthed a 1998 report showing the Capture software was also faulty.
That report, commissioned by the solicitors acting for Mrs Owen in 1998, was served on the Post Office and may never have been seen by the jury in her case.
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‘All we want is her name cleared’
Ms Owen was given a suspended prison sentence and fought to clear her name subsequently – but died in 2003.
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Her case was referred by the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) to the Court of Appeal in October.
The Post Office had until 5 December to respond to papers put forward by Mrs Owen’s defence team but they have now asked for an extension until 30 January.
Ms Owen’s daughter, Juliet Shardlow, described the family’s suffering at the lengthening wait.
“I need to emphasise the profound impact the ongoing delay is having on our family,” she said.
“The continuous uncertainty only compounds our heartache, stress, and anxiety.
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Alan Bates: New redress scheme ‘half-baked’
“It has become the last thing I think about before I go to sleep and the first thing when I wake up.
“We have waited 27 years for justice, and this additional wait feels never-ending.”
Ms Owen’s case is the first time a conviction based on Capture has reached the Court of Appeal since the scandal was exposed.
Lawyers have said that if Ms Owen is exonerated posthumously, it may “speed up” the handling of others.
CCRC chair Dame Vera Baird also told Sky News in the summer it could be a “touchstone case” for other victims.
The CCRC is also continuing to investigate around 30 other “pre-Horizon” convictions.
A Post Office spokesperson said: “We have sought an extension of time to fully consider and respond to the CCRC’s Statement of Reasons in Ms Owen’s case.
“We deeply regret the impact our request for further time will have on Ms Owen’s family.
“We have a duty to carefully consider the evidence presented in the Statement of Reasons submitted by the CCRC and do everything we can to fully assist the Court when it considers this conviction.”
Meanwhile, the first-ever redress scheme for victims of the Post Office Capture IT scandal was launched this autumn.
The Capture Redress Scheme will provide payments of up to £300,000, and more in “exceptional” cases, to former postmasters who suffered financial losses.
Last month’s announcement that DMGT was in exclusive talks to buy Telegraph Media Group achieved a long-standing ambition of the Mail proprietor, Lord Rothermere, to own the rival right-leaning newspaper.
However, the transaction still needs to be formally submitted to the culture secretary, Lisa Nandy, who has effectively asked for details of the proposed deal by early next week.
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Lengthy inquiries by the Competition and Markets Authority and Ofcom are also expected to follow.
DMGT’s exclusivity period came within days of a consortium led by RedBird Capital Partners abandoning its own deal amid opposition from within the Telegraph newsroom.
NatWest’s position as a principal lender would, in theory, be advantageous to Lord Rothermere, who will not want to be reliant on overseas financing for the deal.
The DMGT owner had originally intended to acquire a minority stake of just under 10% in the Telegraph titles as part of the RedBird-led transaction.
A previous deal proposed by a consortium including RedBird and the Abu Dhabi state-owned investment firm IMI collapsed after the government changed the law regarding foreign state ownership of national newspapers.
“I have long admired the Daily Telegraph,” Lord Rothermere said last month.
“My family and I have an enduring love of newspapers and for the journalists who make them.
“The Daily Telegraph is Britain’s largest and best quality broadsheet newspaper, and I have grown up respecting it.
“It has a remarkable history and has played a vital role in shaping Britain’s national debate over many decades.”
If the deal is completed, it would bring the Telegraph newspapers under the same stable of ownership as titles including Metro, The i Paper and New Scientist.
DMGT said in November that it planned “to invest substantially in TMG with the aim of accelerating its international expansion”.
“It will focus particularly on the USA, where the Daily Mail is already successful, with established editorial and commercial operations.”