Britain’s economy will be among the hardest hit by the global trade war and inflation is set to climb, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned – as it slashed its UK growth forecast by a third.
In a sobering set of projections, the Washington-based organisation said it was grappling with “extremely high levels of policy uncertainty” – and the global economy would slow even if countries manage to negotiate a permanent reduction in tariffs from the US.
Echoing earlier warnings about the risks to the global financial system, the IMF said stock markets could fall even more sharply than they did in the aftermath of Donald Trump‘s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement, when US and UK indices recorded some of their largest one-day falls since the pandemic.
It comes as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to meet her US counterpart Scott Bessent at the IMF’s spring gathering in Washington this week.
She is hoping to negotiate a reduction to the 10% baseline tariff the US president has applied to all UK goods. Steel, aluminium and car exports face an additional 25% tariff.
As long as the world’s two largest economies are at war with each other, there will be considerable spillovers. The US and China account for 43% of the global economy.
If demand in either nation slows, that has ripple effects across the world. Tariff or no tariff, exporters to those markets will be hurt.
If China redirects its goods elsewhere, that could hurt domestic industries – jobs could be at stake.
US and Chinese investors might hit pause on global projects and stock market devaluations could hurt consumer confidence. Things could unravel quickly.
Against that backdrop, it is difficult to say with any certainty what would happen to the UK but, even if we find a way to sweet talk our way out of tariffs, the dark clouds of the global economy are moving in every direction.
Britain is an open and highly trade-sensitive economy (we have a trade-to-GDP ratio of around 65%) and global spillovers will rain on us.
Then there are the spillovers from the financial markets. The IMF warned that rising government borrowing costs were weighing on economic growth.
While rising UK bond yields are, in part, a reflection of investor unease over the UK’s growth and inflation outlook, they also reflect anxiety over the US trajectory.
It’s worth bearing all of this in mind if Chancellor Rachel Reeves emerges from her trip to Washington with a deal.
The Treasury would no doubt celebrate the achievement. After all, a reduction in tariffs could make a big difference to some industries, especially our car manufacturers who are currently grappling with a 25% levy on goods to their largest export market. However, it would not solve our problems.
In fact, it would barely make a difference to our overall GDP. Back in 2020, the government estimated that a free trade deal with the US would boost the UK economy by just 0.16% over the next 15 years.
And overall GDP does matter. The chancellor desperately needs economic growth to support the country’s ailing public finances (when the economy grows, so do government tax receipts).
She will know better than most that the prize the US has to offer is comparatively small, so she should weigh up the costs of any deal carefully.
The IMF presented a range of forecasts in its latest World Economic Outlook. Its main case looked at the period up to 4 April, after Mr Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries across the world, ratcheting up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.
If the president were to revert to this policy framework, global growth would fall from 3.3% last year to 2.8% this year, before recovering to 3% in 2026.
In January, the IMF was predicting a rate of 3.3% for both years.
Nearly all countries were hit with downgrades, with the US expected to grow by just 1.8% this year, a downgrade of 0.9 percentage points.
Mexico was downgraded by 1.7 percentage points, while China and Canada are forecast to slow by 0.6 percentage points and Japan by 0.5 percentage points.
The UK economy is expected to grow by just 1.1% this year, down 0.5 percentage points from the 1.6% the IMF was predicting in January. Growth picks up to 1.4% next year, still 0.1 percentage points lower than the January forecast.
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Will tariffs hit UK growth?
Along with recent tariff announcements, the IMF blamed the UK’s poor performance on a rise in government borrowing costs, which has in part been triggered by growing unease among investors over the fate of the US economy.
When borrowing costs rise, the chancellor has to rein in public spending or raise taxes to meet her fiscal rules. That can weigh on economic growth.
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Trump: Tariffs are making US ‘rich’
It also pointed to problems in the domestic economy, mainly “weaker private consumption amid higher inflation as a result of regulated prices and energy costs”.
In a blow to the chancellor, the IMF warned that the UK would experience one of the largest upticks in inflation because of utility bill increases that took effect in April.
It upgraded its inflation forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 3.1% for 2025, taking it even higher above the Bank of England’s 2% target and deepening the dilemma for central bankers who are also grappling with weak growth.
Meanwhile, inflation in the US is likely to jump one percentage point higher than previously forecast to 3% in 2025 on the back of higher tariffs.
The IMF forecast period ended on 4 April. That was before the US president paused his reciprocal tariffs on countries across the world while ratcheting up levies on China.
In a worrying sign for finance ministers across the world, as they attempt to negotiate a deal with the US administration, the IMF said the global economy would slow just the same if Mr Trump were to make his temporary pause on reciprocal tariffs permanent.
That is because higher tariffs between the US and China, which together account for 43% of the global economy, would have spillover effects on the rest of the world that offset the benefits to individual countries.
“The gains from lower effective tariff rates for those countries that were previously subject to higher tariffs would now be offset by poorer growth outcomes in China and the United States – due to the escalating tariff rates – that would propagate through global supply chains,” the IMF said.
In response, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said:
“This forecast shows that the UK is still the fastest-growing European G7 country. The IMF have recognised that this government is delivering reform which will drive up long-term growth in the UK, through our plan for change.
“The report also clearly shows that the world has changed, which is why I will be in Washington this week defending British interests and making the case for free and fair trade.”
Paedophile Lostprophets singer Ian Watkins has died after being attacked in prison.
Watkins, 48, was serving a 29-year jail term for multiple sexual offences, including serious crimes against young children and babies at HMP Wakefield, in West Yorkshire.
He was attacked with a knife by another inmate on Saturday morning, sources have confirmed.
West Yorkshire Police said two men, aged 25 and 43, have been arrested on suspicion of murder.
Image: A police van outside Wakefield prison. Pic: YappApp
Watkins was pronounced dead at the scene after prison staff reported the assault to police.
The prison went into lockdown in the immediate aftermath of the incident, sources added.
A Prison Service spokesperson said they could not comment while the police investigate.
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Watkins was previously stabbed in an incident at the same prison in 2023, suffering non life-threatening injuries after he was reportedly taken hostage by three other inmates before being freed by prison officers six hours later.
He was sentenced in December 2013to 29 years in prison, with a further six years on licence, after admitting 13 sex offences, including the attempted rape of a fan’s baby.
He also encouraged a second fan to abuse her child during a webcam chat and secretly stashed child sexual abuse videos, some of which he had made himself.
At the time, police described him as a “committed, organised paedophile”.
Having found fame in Welsh rock band Lostprophets, Watkins was arrested after his Pontypridd home was searched on orders of a drug warrant in September 2012.
A large number of computers, mobile phones and storage devices were seized during the search.
When sentenced at Cardiff Crown Court, the singer was told he was being given an extended sentence – and a judge said his crimes “plumbed new depths of depravity”.
British nationals may face longer waits at border control when visiting a number of EU countries thanks to a new digital system.
The Entry/Exit System (EES) will be gradually rolled out across Europe over six months from today.
It will see the manual stamping of passports scrapped in favour of non-EU citizens registering their biometric details, such as fingerprints and a photo, automating the process of registering travellers’ entries and exits.
But which countries will it apply to, how will it work and why is it being introduced?
Which countries will have the Entry/Exit System?
It will apply to 25 EU countries in the Schengen area and four other countries in the same region, but which are not part of the EU.
Here’s the full list:
• Austria • Belgium • Bulgaria • Croatia • Czech Republic • Denmark • Estonia • Finland • France • Germany • Greece • Hungary • Iceland • Italy • Latvia • Liechtenstein • Lithuania • Luxembourg • Malta • Netherlands • Norway • Poland • Portugal • Romania • Slovakia • Slovenia • Spain • Sweden • Switzerland
Manual passport stamping will continue to be used in Ireland and Cyprus.
Who does it apply to?
The system applies if you are a non-EU national, including from the UK, who is travelling to an EU country for a short stay, which means up to 90 days within a 180-day period.
Children under the age of 12 will be exempt from giving fingerprints, but they will still need to have their faces scanned for the system.
The EES will register the person’s name, type of travel document, biometric data – fingerprints and captured facial images – and the date and place of entry and exit.
When you first visit one of the listed countries after the EES is adopted, you will need to register your details at an automated kiosk.
In normal circumstances, you will complete the EES checks when you arrive at your destination airport or port in a purpose-built booth.
However, if you enter one of the countries through the Port of Dover, Eurotunnel at Folkestone or St Pancras International, EES checks will be completed at the border before you leave the UK. EES kiosks have been installed specifically for this purpose.
This will mean passengers will have to get out of their cars to register at the Eurotunnel terminal and the Port of Dover. The latter will have an EES processing site at the Western docks.
You do not need to take any action before arriving at the border, and there is no cost for EES registration.
Your digital EES record will be valid for three years before it has to be renewed.
If you enter the Schengen area again during this time, you will only need to provide a fingerprint or photo at the border, when you enter and exit.
During the initial rollout, manual stamping of passports is set to continue, but the system is expected to completely replace it from 10 April 2026.
Could there be longer queues?
The government has warned that there may be longer waiting times than usual at the border once the system starts, as it will take each passenger an extra minute or two to join the EES.
Naomi Leach, deputy editor of Which? Travel, told Sky News that travellers should allow more time for their journeys on the other side if they are flying.
“It is worth booking later transfers, car hire or other onward travel,” she suggested.
Though countries are obliged to get going with the new system from Sunday, they have six months to complete the rollout.
It is hoped that this, mixed with the fact the rollout is not starting during peak travelling seasons, will help limit the impact on passengers.
The Independent’s travel editor Simon Calder told Sky News that passengers should still expect longer queues when they reach their destinations, but that it will likely vary depending on where they are going.
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‘New EU travel rules will differ by country’
He said: “I’ve contacted all 29 of the nations involved and some of them, specifically the Czech Republic, Estonia, Luxembourg, say they’ll be ready from day one, everybody travelling in and out is going to be checked.
“But in Spain, for instance, they say they’re going to check exactly one flight coming into Madrid airport and after that they’re going to roll things out gradually at the international airports, then the roads crossings, then the seaports.”
Mr Calder has been told that Dusseldorf will be the starting point in Germany.
He also said countries can largely pause the implementation at various points if waiting times grow too long.
Concerns over delays at ports
Image: A view of traffic queueing to use the Port of Dover in July. Pic: PA
The Port of Dover, Eurotunnel at Folkestone or St Pancras International will be gradually rolling out the EES.
Only drivers and passengers on coaches and freight are expected to join the EES initially at Dover and Folkestone, while the Eurostar says there will be “minimal changes” at St Pancras to start with.
But some concerns were raised when the Port of Dover said it would take up to six minutes per vehicle for EES registration – up from the 30 to 60 seconds it takes for a car to get through the border without the EES.
But Port of Dover CEO Doug Bannister said he was confident a £40m investment in new infrastructure would pay off.
“We have purposely designed these facilities to handle our peak volume days [in the summer]… whilst ensuring that there is no queuing or congestion on the external road network,” he said.
He said the EU has also allowed for so-called “precautionary measures” during the first six months post full operation of EES, adding: “What that will allow us to do is dial back on the process if we have to, if the traffic volumes are going to be larger than we anticipated.”
A spokesperson for the government said: “While we have done everything we can to ensure the required infrastructure is in place, anyone who is planning a trip to the European mainland once these checks are introduced will still need to allow more time for their journey as the new EU systems bed in.”
What happens to your data?
The European Commission says the data being collected when you use the EES is:
• The information listed in your travel document(s) (e.g. full name, date of birth, etc.) • Date and place of each entry and exit • Facial image and fingerprints • Whether you were refused entry
This data will be stored in the system and cannot be transferred to third parties – except in specific cases, which you can read about here.
Your data will be used by countries for several reasons, including identifying travellers who aren’t allowed to enter, finding those using fake identities, and helping to prevent and investigate serious crimes.
If you refuse to provide your biometric data, you will be denied entry.
Why is it being implemented?
The EU says the new system is aimed at making several improvements to the manual stamping system, which the European Commission views as time-consuming and unreliable in providing data on border crossings.
It says the EES will make border checks more modern, efficient, easier and faster. It says that once they are registered, travellers will spend less time at the border thanks to faster checks.
It is also aimed at preventing illegal migration. It says the EES will help track who comes in and out of the Schengen countries better than the old system, using fingerprint and face data to stop people from overstaying, using fake identities or misusing visa-free travel.
It also says the EES will increase security in the countries, giving the authorities access to important traveller information and helping them to spot security risks and support the fight against serious crimes and terrorism.
As the British weather turns colder and wetter, many children will be spending less time outdoors. But for some, it’s not just the rain that’s keeping them indoors, it’s poverty.
Experts say that time spent in nature can reduce stress and anxiety, boost fitness and sleep, and help build resilience.
Yet for millions of children across the UK, even the simple joy of jumping in puddles or climbing trees is out of reach.
Image: One parent said their child is ‘less wired’ after spending time outdoors
Image: Children benefit from spending time outdoors
As of 2023/24, 4.5 million children live in poverty, according to government data – approximately nine in every school classroom.
At the same time, the number of children struggling with their mental health is rising sharply. According to the charity Mind, one in five children in England has a mental health condition.
At Kingfield Primary school in Woking, Surrey, children unwrapped new wellies and waterproof coats, which were donated by the Waterproofs and Wellies campaign, launched by The Outdoor Guide Foundation with support from World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).
The initiative provides kits to schools so that every child can explore and learn outdoors, even in the rain.
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Gina Bradbury Fox, director and founder of The Outdoor Guide Foundation, said they are delivering “10 sets of waterproof jackets, trousers and welly boots to this primary school today, donated through the Outdoor Guide Foundation from WWF”.
For many of these children, it’s their first proper outdoor garments, and it’s clear from the smiles and muddy boots that it’s making a difference.
Image: For some children, the Waterproofs and Wellies campaign has given them their first experience of nature
Image: Time in nature can make a real difference for children struggling with their mental health, teachers say
Parents say the impact of outdoor learning is immediate. Julia, a mum at the school, said: “The fact that they’re outdoors, they get the fresh air… he’s definitely more buoyant and upbeat when he’s done outdoor learning.
“He sleeps better and that’s a definite plus. When he’s been outside, he’s not as wired.”
According to research from Natural England, 80% of parents say spending time in nature improves their child’s behaviour, while 86% say it boosts their general mood and wellbeing.
Holly McKinley, director of communications at WWF, said their research shows that “70% of primary schools don’t have access to nature or don’t have access to the outdoors”.
Amy Humphries, assistant headteacher at Kingfield Primary School in Woking, says time in nature can make a real difference for children struggling with their mental health.
Image: Campaigners say time in nature isn’t a luxury, it’s a lifeline
“Children who have difficulty with mental health definitely appreciate being outside a lot more. It calms them and allows them to move away from the constant technology and noise,” she said.
“Nature is calmer, quieter, and gives them space to breathe.”
She said many pupils are discovering the world around them for the first time: “Once they’re comfortable in nature, they absolutely embrace it.
“They’re amazed to find blackberries growing on the school grounds or pumpkins in the corner of the playground. It suddenly becomes real and exciting.”
Image: The boots used by children
Moses, another parent at the school, said every child deserves access to nature regardless of the weather.
“You learn more from the environment than sitting in a classroom,” Moses said.
“Kids are so attached to gadgets now and it’s not healthy. It’s surprising how much they love playing outdoors if we just give them the opportunity.”
The Waterproofs and Wellies campaign aims to provide outdoor clothing to schools across the UK so that weather, or cost, never stops a child from exploring nature.
With children facing what experts call a “double crisis” of rising poverty and worsening mental health, campaigners say time in nature isn’t a luxury, it’s a lifeline.
As one teacher put it: “A walk in the woods might not fix everything, but it’s a step in the right direction.”
A government spokesperson said they were “determined to bring down child poverty in all areas of the UK” and would publish its child poverty strategy later this year.
“As part of our Plan for Change, we are introducing free breakfast clubs, expanding free school meals, capping school uniform costs and expanding government-funded childcare,” the spokesperson said.
“We are also supporting 700,000 of the poorest families by introducing a Fair Repayment Rate for Universal Credit claimants and increasing the national minimum wage.”