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The UK government borrowed almost £15bn more than forecast in the last financial year, according to official figures highlighting contributions from inflation-related costs including pay awards.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that borrowing – the difference between total public sector spending and income – over the 12 months to the end of March came in at £151.9bn.

That provisional sum was £20.7bn more than in the same twelve-month period a year earlier and £14.6bn more than the £137.3bn forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the spring statement just a month ago, the body said.

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It added that the figure represented 5.3% of the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP), 0.5 percentage points more than in 2023/24.

It was partly driven by £16.4bn of borrowing in March – the third-highest March borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

The provisional data left public sector net debt at 95.8% of GDP at the end of March. That is 0.2 percentage points higher than at the end of March 2024 and remaining at levels last seen in the early 1960s.

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Higher borrowing is partly a consequence of government investment and spending decisions announced in the chancellor’s autumn budget last year.

But it is also a result of higher costs to service government debt, with the ONS data showing a bill of £4.3bn for March alone.

Elevated bond yields, which reflect a higher risk premium demanded by investors in return for holding UK government debt, are a result of greater turmoil in the global economy and unease over domestically-generated inflation and weak growth at a time of continued strain for the public purse.

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January: Long-term borrowing costs hit new high

Rachel Reeves was forced to use her spring statement in March to restore a £10bn buffer to the public finances to avoid breaking her own fiscal rules.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the data: “Our initial estimates suggest public sector borrowing rose almost £21bn in the financial year just ended as, despite a substantial boost in income, expenditure rose by more, largely due to inflation-related costs, including higher pay and benefit increases.

“At the end of the financial year, debt remained close to the annual value of the output of the economy, at levels last seen in the early 1960s.”

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Spring statement 2025 key takeaways

The government’s efforts to bring down costs include a crackdown on the welfare bill and a renewed focus on securing growth in the economy.

However, business groups say the chancellor’s decision to impose an additional tax burden on employment from this month, mainly through higher minimum wage and employer national insurance contributions, will backfire and harm both employment and investment.

Household spending power is also set to face further strain as inflation is tipped to rise beyond 3% due to a slew of rising costs in the economy, including bills for energy and water.

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The impact of the US trade war is also starting to be felt.

A closely-watched index of activity in the service and manufacturing sectors fell into negative territory with its weakest reading since November 2022.

The survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global found export orders falling at their fastest pace since early 2020.

AJ Bell head of financial analysis, Danni Hewson, said of the data: “Many of the challenges facing the UK economy are beyond the chancellor’s control and she is currently in Washington trying to strike a deal with the US administration on tariffs that will cushion the UK without selling off the family silver.

“One of the big questions is how those changes to employer National Insurance will impact next month’s numbers, especially with inflation linked benefits and the state pension rising at the same time.

“Many people will now be eyeing that headroom created back in March which had always seemed rather insubstantial, and wondering how much will be left by the autumn.”

Responding to the figures, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said the government would always be responsible when it came to the public finances.

He added: “We are laser-focused on making sure taxpayer money is delivering our Plan for Change missions to put more money in people’s pockets, rebuild the NHS and strengthen our borders.”

But shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: “By fiddling the fiscal rules, increasing borrowing by £30bn a year and piling up debt – these figures are alarming but not surprising.”

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US and EU agree trade deal, says Donald Trump

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US and EU agree trade deal, says Donald Trump

The United States and European Union have agreed a trade deal, says Donald Trump.

The announcement was made as the US president met European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen at one of his golf resorts in Scotland.

Speaking after talks in Turnberry, Mr Trump said the EU deal was the “biggest deal ever made” and it will be “great for cars”.

The US will impose 15% tariffs on EU goods into America, after Mr Trump had threatened a 30% levy.

He said there will be an EU investment of $600bn in the US, the bloc will buy $750bn in US energy and will also purchase US military equipment.

Mr Trump had earlier said the main sticking point was “fairness”, citing barriers to US exports of cars and agriculture.

He went into the talks demanding fairer trade with the 27-member EU and threatening steep tariffs to achieve that, while insisting the US will not go below 15% import taxes.

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For months, Mr Trump has threatened most of the world with large tariffs in the hope of shrinking major US trade deficits with many key trading partners, including the EU.

Ms von der Leyen said the agreement would include 15% tariffs across the board, saying it would help rebalance trade between the two large trading partners.

In case there was no deal and the US had imposed 30% tariffs from 1 August, the EU has prepared counter-tariffs on €93bn (£81bn) of US goods.

Ahead of their meeting on Sunday, Ms von der Leyen described Mr Trump as a “tough negotiator and dealmaker”.

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Bread producers Hovis and Kingsmill close in on historic merger

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Bread producers Hovis and Kingsmill close in on historic merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill are closing in on a definitive agreement to merge two of Britain’s most famous grocery brands following months of talks.

Sky News has learnt Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, has proposed paying roughly £75m to acquire Hovis from its long-term private equity backers.

Banking sources said a deal could be formally agreed to combine the businesses as early as the end of next week, although they cautioned the complexity of the transaction meant the timing could yet slip.

Confirmation of a tie-up would come nearly three months after Sky News revealed ABF and Endless – Hovis’s owner since 2020 – were in discussions.

Industry sources have estimated that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of annual cost savings from a merger.

ABF has also been exploring options for the future of Allied Bakeries separate from its talks with Hovis in the event a deal could not be agreed or is prevented from completing by competition regulators.

If it does go ahead, the merger will unite two historic bread producers under common ownership, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning “strength of man”.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair breadmakers’ financial health in recent decades, however.

In accounts filed at Companies House earlier this month, Hovis said it had “achieved positive financial progress despite continued tough trading conditions”.

The company reported sales of £439.6m in the 52 weeks to 28 September last year, down from £477.6m in the 53 weeks to 30 September 2023.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell from £20.9m to £18.7m, which Hovis said was the result of the revenue decline and higher distribution costs.

“Overall bread share remained stable, despite significant price inflation and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, demonstrating the resilience of the Hovis brand and its iconic status as one of Britain’s most loved food brands,” the accounts said.

This week, the trade publication The Grocer reported that Britain’s big four supermarkets, including Asda and Sainsbury’s, had delisted a number of Hovis-branded products.

The publication quoted a Hovis spokeswoman as saying the company was “aware of some adjustments to Hovis product lines in certain stores”.

“We remain fully committed to working collaboratively with our retail partners to grow our mutual businesses.”

The overall UK bakery market is estimated to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

Critical to the prospects of a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis taking place will be the view of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) at a time when economic regulators are under intense pressure from the government to support growth.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group the largest share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain higher because of the breadth of its product range.

Responding to Sky News’ report in May of the talks, ABF said: “Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we remain committed to increasing long-term shareholder value.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF – which is also in the process of closing its Vivergo bioethanol plant in Hull after pleading for government support – described the losses at Allied, which also owns own-label bread manufacturer Speedibake, as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Prior to its ownership by Endless, Hovis was owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites, as well as its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF declined to comment, while Endless could not be reached for comment.

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

Retail sales grew in June as warm weather boosted spending and day trips, official figures show.

Spending on goods such as food, clothes and household items rose 0.9%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It’s a bounce back from the 2.8% dip in May, but last month’s figure was below economists’ forecast 1.2% uplift as consumers dealt with higher prices from increased inflation.

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Also weighing on spending was reduced consumer confidence amid talk of higher taxes, according to a closely watched indicator from market research firm GfK.

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

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June’s retail sales rise came as people bought more in supermarkets, and retailers said drinks sales were up.

While hot and sunny weather boosted some brick-and-mortar shops, the heat led some to head online.

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Non-store retailers, which include mainly online shops, but also market stalls, had sold the most in more than three years.

Not since February 2022 had sales been so high as the Met Office said England had its warmest ever June, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole.

The June increases suggest that the May drop was a bump in the road. When looked at as a whole, the first six months of the year saw retail sales up 1.7%.

Filling up the car for day trips to take advantage of the sun played an important role in the retail sales growth.

When fuel is excluded, the rise was smaller, just 0.6%.

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Despite lower consumer sentiment and more expensive goods, consumers are benefitting from rising wages and are cutting back on savings.

The ONS lifestyle survey – backed up by hard data like the Bank of England’s money and credit figures – shows that households have rebuilt their rainy day savings and are cutting back on the amount of money they squirrel away each month.

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