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The UK government borrowed almost £15bn more than forecast in the last financial year, according to official figures highlighting contributions from inflation-related costs including pay awards.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that borrowing – the difference between total public sector spending and income – over the 12 months to the end of March came in at £151.9bn.

That provisional sum was £20.7bn more than in the same twelve-month period a year earlier and £14.6bn more than the £137.3bn forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the spring statement just a month ago, the body said.

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It added that the figure represented 5.3% of the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP), 0.5 percentage points more than in 2023/24.

It was partly driven by £16.4bn of borrowing in March – the third-highest March borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

The provisional data left public sector net debt at 95.8% of GDP at the end of March. That is 0.2 percentage points higher than at the end of March 2024 and remaining at levels last seen in the early 1960s.

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Higher borrowing is partly a consequence of government investment and spending decisions announced in the chancellor’s autumn budget last year.

But it is also a result of higher costs to service government debt, with the ONS data showing a bill of £4.3bn for March alone.

Elevated bond yields, which reflect a higher risk premium demanded by investors in return for holding UK government debt, are a result of greater turmoil in the global economy and unease over domestically-generated inflation and weak growth at a time of continued strain for the public purse.

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January: Long-term borrowing costs hit new high

Rachel Reeves was forced to use her spring statement in March to restore a £10bn buffer to the public finances to avoid breaking her own fiscal rules.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the data: “Our initial estimates suggest public sector borrowing rose almost £21bn in the financial year just ended as, despite a substantial boost in income, expenditure rose by more, largely due to inflation-related costs, including higher pay and benefit increases.

“At the end of the financial year, debt remained close to the annual value of the output of the economy, at levels last seen in the early 1960s.”

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Spring statement 2025 key takeaways

The government’s efforts to bring down costs include a crackdown on the welfare bill and a renewed focus on securing growth in the economy.

However, business groups say the chancellor’s decision to impose an additional tax burden on employment from this month, mainly through higher minimum wage and employer national insurance contributions, will backfire and harm both employment and investment.

Household spending power is also set to face further strain as inflation is tipped to rise beyond 3% due to a slew of rising costs in the economy, including bills for energy and water.

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The impact of the US trade war is also starting to be felt.

A closely-watched index of activity in the service and manufacturing sectors fell into negative territory with its weakest reading since November 2022.

The survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global found export orders falling at their fastest pace since early 2020.

AJ Bell head of financial analysis, Danni Hewson, said of the data: “Many of the challenges facing the UK economy are beyond the chancellor’s control and she is currently in Washington trying to strike a deal with the US administration on tariffs that will cushion the UK without selling off the family silver.

“One of the big questions is how those changes to employer National Insurance will impact next month’s numbers, especially with inflation linked benefits and the state pension rising at the same time.

“Many people will now be eyeing that headroom created back in March which had always seemed rather insubstantial, and wondering how much will be left by the autumn.”

Responding to the figures, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said the government would always be responsible when it came to the public finances.

He added: “We are laser-focused on making sure taxpayer money is delivering our Plan for Change missions to put more money in people’s pockets, rebuild the NHS and strengthen our borders.”

But shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: “By fiddling the fiscal rules, increasing borrowing by £30bn a year and piling up debt – these figures are alarming but not surprising.”

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Tide turns as TPG leads talks to lead digital bank fundraising

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Tide turns as TPG leads talks to lead digital bank fundraising

TPG, the American private equity giant, is in advanced talks to take a stake in Tide, the British-based digital banking services platform.

Sky News has learnt that TPG, which manages more than $250bn in assets, is discussing acquiring a significant shareholding in the company.

Sources said that Tide’s existing investors were expected to sell shares to TPG, while a separate deal would involve another existing shareholder in the company acquiring newly issued shares.

The two transactions may be conducted at different valuations, although both are likely to see the company valued at at least $1bn, the sources added.

The size of TPG’s prospective stake in Tide was unclear on Monday.

Earlier this year, Sky News reported that Tide had been negotiating the terms of an investment from Apis Partners, a prolific investor in the fintech sector, although it was unclear whether this would now proceed.

Tide has roughly 650,000 SME customers in both Britain and India, with the latter market expanding at a faster rate.

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Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street bank, has been advising Tide on its fundraising.

Tide was founded in 2015 by George Bevis and Errol Damelin, before launching two years later.

It describes itself as the leading business financial platform in the UK, offering business accounts and related banking services.

The company also provides its SME ‘members’ in the UK a set of connected administrative solutions from invoicing to accounting.

It now boasts a roughly 11% SME banking market share in Britain.

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Tide, which employs about 2,000 people, also launched in Germany last May.

The company’s investors include Apax Partners, Augmentum Fintech and LocalGlobe.

Chaired by the City grandee Sir Donald Brydon, Tide declined to comment on Monday.

TPG also declined to comment.

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Trump trade war could still see America come off worse

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Trump trade war could still see America come off worse

It is a trade deal that will “rebalance, but enable trade on both sides,” said Ursula von der Leyen after the EU and US struck a trade deal in Scotland.

It was not the most emphatic declaration by the president of the European Commission.

The trading partnership between two of the biggest markets in the world is in significantly worse shape than it was before Donald Trump was elected, but this deal is better than nothing.

As part of the agreement, European exports to the US will be hit with a 15% tariff. That’s better than the 30% the bloc was threatened with but it is a world away from the type of open and free trade European leaders would like. The EU had offered tariff free trade to the US just weeks before the deal was announced.

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Instead, it has accepted a 15% tariff and agreed to ramp up its energy purchases from the US.

The EU tariff on US imports will remain close to zero but Europe did get some important exemptions – on aviation, critical raw materials, some chemicals and some medical equipment. That being said, the bloc did not achieve a breakthrough on steel, aluminium or copper, which are still facing a 50% tariff. It means the average tariff on EU exports to the US will now rise from 1.2 % last year to 17%.

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There is also confusion over the status of pharmaceuticals – an important industry to Europe. Products like Ozempic, which is made in Denmark, have flooded into the US market in recent years and Donald Trump was threatening tariffs as high as 50% on the sector.

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US and EU agree trade deal

It appears that pharmaceuticals will fall under the 15% bracket, even though President Trump contradicted official announcements by suggesting a deal had not yet been made on the industry. The risk is that the implementation of the deal could be beset with differences of interpretation, as has been the case with the Japan deal that Trump struck last week.

It also risks fracturing solidarity between EU states, all of which have different strategic industries that rely on the US to differing degrees. Germany’s BDI federation of industrial groups said: “Even a 15% tariff rate will have immense negative effects on export-oriented German industry.”

The VCI chemical trade association said rates were still “too high”. For German carmakers, including Mercedes and BMW, there was some reprieve from the crippling 27.5% tariff imposed by Trump. The industry is Europe’s top exporter to the US but the German trade body, the VDA, warned that a 15% rate would “cost the German automotive industry billions annually”.

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Who’s the winner in the US-EU trade deal?

Meanwhile, François Bayrou, the French Prime Minister, described the agreement as a “dark day” for the union, “when an alliance of free peoples, gathered to affirm their values and defend their interests, resolves to submission.”

While the deal has divided the bloc, the greater certainty it delivers is not to be snubbed at.

Markets bounced on the news, even though the deal will ultimately harm economic growth.

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‘Millions’ of EU jobs were in firing line

Analysts at Oxford Economics said: “We don’t plan material changes to our eurozone baseline forecast of 1.1% GDP growth this year and 0.8% in 2026 in response to the EU-US trade deal.

“While the effective tariff rate will end up at around 15%, a few percentage points higher than in our baseline, lower uncertainty and no EU retaliation are partial offsets.”

However, economists at Capital Economics said the economic outlook had now deteriorated, with growth in the bloc likely to drop by 0.2%. Germany and Ireland could be the hardest hit.

While the US appears to be the obvious winner in this negotiation, uncertainty still hangs over the US economy.

Trump has not achieved his goal of “90 deals in 90 days” and, in the end, American consumers could still bear the cost through higher prices.

That of course depends on how businesses share the burden of those higher costs, with the latest data suggesting that inflation is yet to rip through the US economy. While Europe determined on Sunday that a bad deal is better than no deal, some fear that the worst is yet to come for the Americans.

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US and EU agree trade deal, says Donald Trump

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US and EU agree trade deal, says Donald Trump

The United States and European Union have agreed a trade deal, says Donald Trump.

The announcement was made as the US president met European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen at one of his golf resorts in Scotland.

Speaking after talks in Turnberry, Mr Trump said the EU deal was the “biggest deal ever made” and it will be “great for cars”.

The US will impose 15% tariffs on EU goods into America, after Mr Trump had threatened a 30% levy.

He said there will be an EU investment of $600bn in the US, the bloc will buy $750bn in US energy and will also purchase US military equipment.

Mr Trump had earlier said the main sticking point was “fairness”, citing barriers to US exports of cars and agriculture.

He went into the talks demanding fairer trade with the 27-member EU and threatening steep tariffs to achieve that, while insisting the US will not go below 15% import taxes.

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For months, Mr Trump has threatened most of the world with large tariffs in the hope of shrinking major US trade deficits with many key trading partners, including the EU.

Ms von der Leyen said the agreement would include 15% tariffs across the board, saying it would help rebalance trade between the two large trading partners.

In case there was no deal and the US had imposed 30% tariffs from 1 August, the EU has prepared counter-tariffs on €93bn (£81bn) of US goods.

Ahead of their meeting on Sunday, Ms von der Leyen described Mr Trump as a “tough negotiator and dealmaker”.

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