Intel CFO says tariffs increase chance for economic slowdown, recession getting likelier
The Intel headquarters in Santa Clara, California, US, on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. Intel Corp. is scheduled to release earnings figures on April 24.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Intel CFO David Zinsner said President Donald Trump’s tariffs and retaliation from other countries has increased the likelihood of a recession.
“The very fluid trade policies in the U.S. and beyond, as well as regulatory risks, have increased the chance of an economic slowdown, with the probability of a recession growing,” Zinsner said on the company’s quarterly earnings call on Thursday.
Intel reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, partially because some customers stockpiled chips ahead of tariffs, the company said. However, guidance for revenue and profit was below expectations, pushing the chipmaker’s stock down more than 5% in extended trading.
Intel’s forecast for the current quarter is $11.2 billion to $12.4 billion. Zinsner said the range is “wider than normal” due to uncertainty caused by tariffs.
The company’s outlook underscores how sensitive manufacturers are to trade restrictions, even for companies that are committed to building products in the U.S. While Intel manufactures some of its advanced processors domestically, it also partners with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung in Korea to manufacture chips, and imports chipmaking machinery from ASML in Europe. The company also needs parts and materials that come from China.
Zinsner said the tariff environment makes it harder for Intel to predict its performance for the quarter and the year, and added that it’s now anticipating that the total market for its chips could shrink, especially if consumers stop buying new computers.
“The biggest risk we see is the impact of a potential pullback in investment and spending, as businesses and consumers react to higher costs and the uncertain economic backdrop,” Zinsner said.
Although Intel has enough production in disparate places around the world to mitigate some of the tariffs, the company “will certainly see costs increase,” he added.
One possibility is that consumers may opt for laptops and other computers based around older-generation chips, which are less expensive, said Michelle Johnston Holthaus, CEO of Intel Products.
“The macroeconomic concerns and tariffs have everybody kind of hedging their bets in what they need to have from an inventory perspective,” Holthaus said on the earnings call.
Beyond tariffs, Intel faces efforts by the U.S. government to require licenses to ship advanced chips for artificial intelligence to countries like China.
Intel’s earnings report on Thursday was its first under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who was appointed to the job last month. Tan said he planned to cut Intel’s operational and capital expenses in order to make the company more efficient.
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Technology
Blip, dip, pullback or the beginning of the end? Global investors weigh in on stock sell-off
Global investor sentiment for artificial intelligence remains buoyant, despite on the ongoing stock sell-off.
European and Asia markets have seen days of consecutive losses, tracking their U.S. counterparts lower as pressures mount on AI-related stocks and their valuations. The pan-European Stoxx 600 on Tuesday notched its lowest level in a month, with major bourses opening mixed on Wednesday, while Asia-Pacific markets fell.
Stateside, stock futures were little changed overnight after major U.S. indexes extended their losses. AI-related stocks such as Nvidia, Palantir, and Microsoft are among those feeling the pressure.
“We do think this is an AI specific pullback. We don’t think this is the beginning of the bear market,” Emma Wall, head of investment analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
When considering whether this is the “beginning of the end” or a moment marking “the big pullback,” Wall argued that while we are overdue a “major global market correction,” the current downturn is yet to bring this shift.
Many markets outside of the U.S. — particularly in Europe and the U.K. — already reflect much of the negative news, she said, adding that she sees the pressure as sector specific.
It is, however, an opportunity to rebalance portfolios, as “even taking into consideration this week, most people have had a really good run, even in AI stocks,” Wall said.
Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, echoed this sentiment. He said markets have been in a correction for the past six weeks but “it’s not the end of the AI cycle.”
All eyes are on Nvidia, considered the bellwether of AI, as it’s due to post third-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday.
“Whatever happens tonight is, if it is a blip, is a pullback, it’s probably a dip to be bought. But I think we are in the midst of somewhat of a correction right now,” Wilson told CNBC’s “Inside India,” adding that he thinks it’s the middle-inning.
“The credit part of this spending is just beginning, meaning we’re just starting to raise money in the credit markets. It’s not like that money is going to sit there and they’re not going to spend it, which means there’s probably time on the clock with these intermittent kind of pullbacks,” he added.
Companies and investors are engaged in a delicate dance.
On one side, AI labs and their partners are making big promises and aggressive plays, according to Jason Thomas, head of global research and investment strategy at Carlyle. “But it’s not incumbent upon investors to believe them,” he told CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum, from the firm’s annual conference.
“Investors, of course, have to ensure that they are getting compensated for the risk that things don’t work out quite as planned, and I think that there’s a sense that perhaps there’s been some assets in the space that have been priced to best case scenarios. So I think that that’s the reassessment that’s going on right now,” he said.
Hyperscalers’ rising capex
The sell-off comes as the pace of debt dealmaking picks up, fueling speculation that it may have unsettled investors, many of whom have remained bullish on AI as long as companies post sound earnings. Google-owner Alphabet and Meta have issued bonds, for example.
“It’s not a problem, as long as the funding markets are there, meaning they’re raising the debt,” Wilson added. “I mean, there’s investors lined up,” he said.
It does however, become a problem when this is no longer the case, but “we haven’t seen that yet,” he said.
AI has fundamentally changed the strategy for many Big Tech firms, particularly when it comes to U.S. hyperscalers, which have morphed into capex-heavy companies from once asset-light businesses. Global investors are now assessing this new dynamic. Bank of America‘s latest Global Fund Managers Survey found that, for the first time in two decades, fund managers are concerned about hyperscalers “overinvesting.“
“[Hyperscalers] traded at very high price-to-book ratios, which made a lot of sense. You don’t value a money-printing machine based on the cost of the paper or based on the cost of the printing press. And that’s essentially what they were, these massive money printing machines where most of their assets were intangible, proprietary technology, the digital platforms,” said Carlyle’s Thomas.
“Now they’ve actually started to invest so much that 70% of their cash flow is being consumed by capital spending and, if you look at their book value now, 70% actually consists of property, plant and equipment, largely data centers. That’s a four-fold increase from a decade ago,” he added.
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