Trump trade war: How UK figures show his tariff argument doesn’t add up
As Chancellor Rachel Reeves meets her counterpart, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent to discuss an “economic agreement” between the two countries, the latest trade figures confirm three realities that ought to shape negotiations.
The first is that the US remains a vital customer for UK businesses, the largest single-nation export market for British goods and the third-largest import partner, critical to the UK automotive industry, already landed with a 25% tariff, and pharmaceuticals, which might yet be.
In 2024 the US was the UK’s largest export market for cars, worth £9bn to companies including Jaguar Land Rover, Bentley and Aston Martin, and accounting for more than 27% of UK automotive exports.
Little wonder the domestic industry fears a heavy and immediate impact on sales and jobs should tariffs remain.
Money latest: ’14 million Britons on course for parking fine this year’
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Chancellor’s trade deal red lines explained
American car exports to the UK by contrast are worth just £1bn, which may explain why the chancellor may be willing to lower the current tariff of 10% to 2.5%.
For UK medicines and pharmaceutical producers meanwhile, the US was a more than £6bn market in 2024. Currently exempt from tariffs, while Mr Trump and his advisors think about how to treat an industry he has long-criticised for high prices, it remains vulnerable.
The second point is that the US is even more important for the services industry. British exports of consultancy, PR, financial and other professional services to America were worth £131bn last year.
That’s more than double the total value of the goods traded in the same direction, but mercifully services are much harder to hammer with the blunt tool of tariffs, though not immune from regulation and other “non-tariff barriers”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
How US ports are coping with tariffs
The third point is that, had Donald Trump stuck to his initial rationale for tariffs, UK exporters should not be facing a penny of extra cost for doing business with the US.
The president says he slapped blanket tariffs on every nation bar Russia to “rebalance” the US economy and reverse goods trade ‘deficits’ – in which the US imports more than it exports to a given country.
Read more: Could Trump tariffs tip the world into recession?
That heavily contested argument might apply to Mexico, Canada, China and many other manufacturing nations, but it does not meaningfully apply to Britain.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics show the US ran a small goods trade deficit with the UK in 2024 of £2.2bn, importing £59.3bn of goods against exports of £57.1bn.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
IMF downgrades UK growth forecast
Add in services trade, in which the UK exports more than double what it imports from the US, and the UK’s surplus – and thus the US ‘deficit’ – swells to nearly £78bn.
That might be a problem were it not for the US’ own accounts of the goods and services trade with Britain, which it says actually show a $15bn (£11.8bn) surplus with the UK.
You might think that they cannot both be right, but the ONS disagrees. The disparity is caused by the way the US Bureau of Economic Analysis accounts for services, as well as a range of statistical assumptions.
Read more from Sky News:
Water regulation slammed by spending watchdog
Rate cut speculation lights up as economic outlook darkens
“The presence of trade asymmetries does not indicate that either country is inaccurate in their estimation,” the ONS said.
That might be encouraging had Mr Trump not ignored his own arguments and landed the UK, like everyone else in the world, with a blanket 10% tariff on all goods.
Trade agreements are notoriously complex, protracted affairs, which helps explain why after nine years of trying the UK still has not got one with the US, and the Brexit deal it did with the EU against a self-imposed deadline has been proved highly disadvantageous.
The UK economy showed strong growth in the first three months of the year, according to official figures.
Gross domestic product (GDP) – the standard measure of an economy’s value – grew 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, the Office for National Statistics said.
The rise is better than expected. An increase of just 0.6% was anticipated by economists polled by the Reuters news agency.
Money blog: Reaction as UK economy grows more than expected
It’s significantly better than the three months previous, in which a slight economic expansion of just 0.1% was reported for the final quarter of 2024.
Read more:
Burberry to cut 1,700 jobs after multi-million pound loss
Co-op updates on recovery after cyber attack forced empty shelves
The ONS also said there was a small amount of growth last month, as GDP expanded 0.2% in March, which similarly beat expectations.
No growth at all had been forecast for the month.
How did the economy grow?
A large contribution to high GDP growth was an increase in output in the production sector, which rose 1.1%, driven by manufacturing and a 4% increase in water supply, the ONS said.
Also working to push up the GDP figure was 0.7% growth in the biggest part of the UK economy – the services industry.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Here’s the concern with GDP figures’
Wholesale, retail and computer programming services all performed well in the quarter, as did car leasing and advertising, the ONS said.
It shows the economy was resilient, as the country headed into the global trade war sparked by President Trump’s so-called ‘liberation day’ tariff announcement on 2 April.
Welcome political news, for now
The data is welcome news for a government who have identified growing the economy as its number one priority.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is taking the figures as a political win, saying the UK economy has grown faster than the US, Canada, France, Italy and Germany.
“Today’s growth figures show the strength and potential of the UK economy, ” she said.
“Up against a backdrop of global uncertainty, we are making the right choices now in the national interest.”
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Such GDP numbers may not continue into April as businesses and consumers were hit with a raft of bill rises, and Mr Trump’s tariffs fired the starting gun on a global trade war.
Last month, water, energy and council tax bills rose across the country while employers faced higher wage costs from the rise in their national insurance contributions and the minimum wage.
But above-inflation wage growth and fading consumer caution could continue to boost the economy.
Foreign state investors would be allowed to hold stakes of up to 15% in British national newspapers, ministers are set to announce amid a two-year battle to resolve an impasse over The Daily Telegraph’s ownership.
Sky News has learnt that the Department for Culture, Media and Sport could announce as soon as Thursday that the new limit is to be imposed following a consultation lasting several months.
The decision to set the ownership threshold at 15% follows an intensive lobbying campaign by newspaper industry executives concerned that a permanent outright ban could cut off a vital source of funding to an already-embattled industry.
It would mean that RedBird IMI, the Abu Dhabi state-backed fund which owns an option to take full ownership of the Telegraph titles, would be able to play a role in the newspapers’ future.
Money blog: £30 broadband rule explained
RedBird Capital, the US-based fund, has already said it is exploring the possibility of taking full control of the Telegraph, while IMI would have – if the status quo had been maintained – forced to relinquish any involvement in the right-leaning broadsheets.
One industry source said they had been told to expect a statement from Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, or another DCMS minister, this week, with the amendment potentially being made in the form of a statutory instrument.
Other than RedBird, a number of suitors for the Telegraph have expressed interest but struggled to raise the funding for a deal.
The most notable of these has been Dovid Efune, owner of The New York Sun, who has been trying for months to raise the £550m sought by RedBird IMI to recoup its outlay.
Another potential offer from Todd Boehly, the Chelsea Football Club co-owner, and media tycoon David Montgomery, has yet to materialise.
RedBird IMI paid £600m in 2023 to acquire a call option that was intended to convert into ownership of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine.
That objective was thwarted by a change in media ownership laws – which banned any form of foreign state ownership – amid an outcry from parliamentarians.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
The Spectator was then sold last year for £100m to Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund billionaire, who has installed Lord Gove, the former cabinet minister, as its editor.
The UAE-based IMI, which is controlled by the UAE’s deputy prime minister and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, extended a further £600m to the Barclays to pay off a loan owed to Lloyds Banking Group, with the balance secured against other family-controlled assets.
Other bidders for the Telegraph had included Lord Saatchi, the former advertising mogul, who offered £350m, while Lord Rothermere, the Daily Mail proprietor, pulled out of the bidding last summer amid concerns that he would be blocked on competition grounds.
The Telegraph’s ownership had been left in limbo by a decision taken by Lloyds Banking Group, the principal lender to the Barclay family, to force some of the newspapers’ related corporate entities into a form of insolvency proceedings.
The newspaper auction is being run by Raine Group and Robey Warshaw.
The DCMS declined to comment.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway