A growing number of sizable companies, from mining giants to energy majors, are embracing the hype for natural hydrogen.
It comes as buzz continues to build over the potential for a resource that advocates say could radically reshape the global energy landscape.
Natural hydrogen, sometimes known as white, gold or geologic hydrogen, refers to hydrogen gas that is found in its natural form beneath Earth’s surface. The long-overlooked resource, first discovered by accident in Mali nearly 40 years ago, contains no carbon and produces only water when burned.
Investor interest in the nascent natural hydrogen sector has been intensifying in recent months, fueling optimism initially driven by research startups and junior exploration companies.
Over the past year or so, some of the sector’s established backers include mining giants Rio Tinto and Fortescue, Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom, the venture capital arm of British oil giant BP and Bill Gates‘ clean tech investment fund Breakthrough Energy Ventures.
We can use it to make metals, make fuels, you could even make food, and all with far fewer emissions than conventional approaches.
Eric Toone
Chief technology officer at Breakthrough Energy
Exploratory efforts are currently underway in several countries across the globe, with Canada and the U.S. leading the way in terms of project counts over the last year, according to research published by consultancy Rystad Energy.
Analysts expect the year ahead to be a pivotal one, with industry players hoping their exploration campaigns can soon locate the elusive gas.
Not everyone’s convinced about the clean energy potential of natural hydrogen, however, with critics flagging environmental concerns and distribution challenges. For its part, the International Energy Agency has warned there is a possibility that the resource “is too scattered to be captured in a way that is economically viable.”
A global scramble for ‘white gold’
Minh Khoi Le, head of hydrogen research at Rystad Energy, said it’s difficult to predict whether natural hydrogen can live up to its promise in 2025.
“I guess last year was the year that things got really interesting for the natural hydrogen space because that’s when many companies started to plan drilling campaigns, extraction testing and we started to see some major players start to get involved as well,” Le told CNBC by video call.
“Since then, I would say the progress has been relatively slow. There are only a few companies that have actually started drilling,” he added.
Gauges that are part of the electrolysis plant of the geological hydrogen H2 storage facility.
Alex Halada | Afp | Getty Images
Rystad’s Le, who characterized the global pursuit of natural hydrogen as a “white gold rush” last year, said that while there’d been no major progress over the last 12 months, an upswing in investor interest could help to deliver some meaningful results.
“Now, we are starting to see companies getting investment, so they have money to fund their drilling campaigns. So, if we are to get an answer of whether this thing will work, we’ll get to that conclusion a bit faster this year,” Le said.
Hydrogen has long been billed as one of many potential energy sources that could play a key role in the energy transition, but most of it is produced using fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas, a process that generates significant greenhouse gas emissions.
Green hydrogen, a process that involves splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable electricity, is one exception to the hydrogen color rainbow. However, its development has been held back by soaring costs and a challenging economic environment.
Clean, homegrown energy
Australia’s HyTerra announced an investment of $21.9 million from Fortescue in August last year, noting that the proceeds would be used to fully fund expanded exploration projects.
A spokesperson for Fortescue, one of the leading green hydrogen developers, said its push into the natural hydrogen sector was in line with its “strategic commitment to exploring zero emissions fuels.”
Acknowledging that more work is required to fully assess natural hydrogen’s emissions profile, Fortescue’s spokesperson described the technology as a “promising opportunity” to accelerate industrial decarbonization.
A hydrogen-powered haul truck, right, at the Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. Christmas Creek mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, Australia, on Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Elsewhere, BP Ventures, the venture capital arm of BP, led a Series A funding round of U.K.-based natural hydrogen exploration startup Snowfox Discovery earlier this year, while France-based start-up Mantle8 recently received 3.4 million euros ($3.9 million) in seed funding from investors, including Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a climate and technology fund founded by Bill Gates in 2015.
Eric Toone, chief technology officer at Breakthrough Energy, said the fund had backed the likes of Mantle8 and U.S.-based startup Koloma because the promise of natural hydrogen is such that it “could unlock a new era of clean, homegrown energy.”
“Hydrogen is pure reactive chemical energy. If we have enough hydrogen and it’s cheap enough, we can do almost anything. We can use it to make metals, make fuels, you could even make food, and all with far fewer emissions than conventional approaches,” Toone told CNBC via email.
“We know it’s out there and not just in isolated pockets. Early exploration has identified natural hydrogen across six continents. The challenge now is figuring out how to extract it efficiently, move it safely, and build the systems to put it to work,” he added.
In search of the ‘eureka moment’
Aurian Durbuis, chief of staff at France’s Mantle8, said momentum certainly appears to be building from a venture capital perspective.
“There is a growing interest, indeed, especially given the dynamics with green hydrogen right now, unfortunately. People are turning their eyes to other solutions, which is in our favor,” Durbuis told CNBC by video call.
Taking the evolution of US shale-gas as an analogy, even if large finds are made, it will likely take decades to achieve industrial production.
Arnout Everts
Member of the Hydrogen Science Coalition
Based in Grenoble, in the foothills of the French Alps, Mantle8 is targeting the discovery of 10 million tons of natural hydrogen by 2030 to complement the European Union’s goals.
“The question is can we find producible reservoirs, in the oil and gas terminology. That’s really what we need to figure out as an industry,” Durbuis said.
“We think we can drill in 2028 and hopefully that is the eureka moment because if we can find something at that time, then it could obviously be a game changer. If we find highly concentrated hydrogen, with pressure, then this just changes everything,” he added.
What’s next for natural hydrogen?
The Hydrogen Science Coalition, a group of academics, scientists and engineers seeking to bring an evidence-based view to hydrogen’s role in the energy transition, said exploration for natural hydrogen is still at an “embryonic stage” — but even so, the likelihood of locating large finds of nearly pure hydrogen that can be extracted at scale look “relatively slim.”
The world’s only producing hydrogen well in Mali, for example, supplies “just a fraction of the daily energy output of a single wind turbine,” Arnout Everts, a geoscientist and member of the Hydrogen Science Coalition, told CNBC via email.
The team from the Geological Agency of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) took samples of natural hydrogen gas found in One Pute Jaya Village, Morowali Regency, Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, 23 October 2023.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
“Taking the evolution of US shale-gas as an analogy, even if large finds are made, it will likely take decades to achieve industrial production,” Everts said.
Ultimately, the Hydrogen Science Coalition said the pursuit of natural hydrogen risks distracting focus from the renewable hydrogen needed to decarbonize industries today.
What looks to be Tesla’s long-rumored “more affordable model” has been spotted testing on a highway, without any camouflage. But before you get too excited, it’s just a Model Y with some cheaper parts – and a price that’s not much different than we’ve seen on other Teslas.
For many years, Tesla had planned to build a much more affordable vehicle, starting around $25k. This vehicle was nicknamed the “Model 2,” and would have offered the most affordable entry point into the EV market, at least in the West.
In its place, Tesla started offering vague promises about “more affordable models,” starting in its Q1 report in April 2024. Tesla later specified that these would enter production in the first half of 2025.
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The language Tesla used suggested that the cheaper vehicles would be new models, which means more than one model, and not just based on a current Tesla model. But we reported that this was unlikely to be the case, and that the new models would just be a stripped-down Model Y.
We first saw the “more affordable” Model Y out and about in Chinese spy shots, which included exterior videos and even a peek at the interior. However, in those spy shots, the front and rear of the vehicle were covered with camouflage, suggesting that there would be some changes in those areas Tesla didn’t want to leak yet.
Tesla doesn’t seem to mind those leaks anymore (especially after a low-res website leak), as a Model Y was spotted driving on the highway with no camouflage whatsoever, offering a look into what Tesla was hiding underneath those covers.
The pictures were posted to reddit by Fantastic_Train_7270, and show a Model Y with Florida manufacturer plates.
The nicely clear front end photos show that the car is missing the front light bar that was added with the Juniper refresh, instead reverting to separate headlights – though both are quite narrow, like the headlights on the Juniper.
The rear end is also missing its light bar, instead replaced by a horizontal black line. The line does not have the “T E S L A” badging, as the Juniper refresh has.
The model also has new aerodynamic wheels, which should help add a little range (and may make up for a smaller battery pack, though we don’t have information yet on whether battery size is part of the decontenting associated with the “more affordable” model).
Other than the lack of light bars, the front and rear look quite similar to the Juniper refresh. However, one concerning detail is that the rear trunk lid does not seem to fit snugly into the place it’s supposed to fit, instead encroaching onto the top of the plastic rear fascia.
We don’t know what might have caused this, but we do know that we’ve seen Model Ys with poor color matching on body panels before – but that’s a lot less of a problem than a body panel that seems to be misaligned by the better part of an inch, visible from a longish distance shot on a highway.
Of course, it’s just a prototype, but this is also the reason prototypes have camouflage, so the public can’t see fiddly bits like this ahead of release.
While these photos don’t show us anything of the interior, information from a recent software update gives us some hints as to what has been removed. In addition to removing the glass roof, coat hooks and 8″ rear screen (as could be seen in the Chinese spy shots), the software update suggests that the Model Y will have no ambient LED lights, single-axis seat controls, and simpler air vents.
The fact that this vehicle was spotted without camouflage, alongside the fact that this vehicle has shown up in recent software updates, suggests that release may be imminent. We had expected that it might be released in China first as has been the case with some other Tesla models lately, but the vehicle’s presence on US roads means that it might see a release here soon too.
And if it is releasing soon, it would be at an important time. Tesla just had its first positive sales quarter in some time, but that was primarily due to the expiration of the $7,500 US EV tax credit, which pulled forward demand. That means Teslas are now going to be $7,500 more expensive for US buyers, as of yesterday. So anything Tesla can do to cut prices will be a big deal.
We don’t know for certain how much cheaper the “more affordable” Model Y will be, but estimates (and a leak) suggest a base price of $40k – so, a savings of $5k over the current $45k base price, or $2,500 under the current base price of the Model 3, neither of which are as low as the lowest prices we’ve seen Teslas sell for before. Quite a far shout from the actually affordable $25,000 car we were all promised for so long.
Also, that price would still be a $2,500 price increase compared to the deal which was available just two days ago, before tax credit expiry. And Tesla has its own CEO to thank for that price hike, given he unwisely spent $200 million campaigning for the anti-EV forces that are now making his company’s products less affordable.
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On today’s surprising episode of Quick Charge, Tesla had its first good sales quarter in a while as the EV tax credit expiration spiked demand, but a number of big shareholders still want Elon gone! Press play to find out why!
We’re also highlighting new EV deals from BMW and Jeep – but it’s not all rosy news for Stellantis’ EV fans. The eagerly anticipated, ultra-fast Banshee edition may never see the light of day.
Today’s episode is brought to you by Climate XChange, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies. The nonprofit just kicked off its 10th annual EV raffle, where participants have multiple opportunities to win their dream EV.
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Despite the gated release that requires an invite code, the video creation tool has already shot to the number three spot on Apple‘s App Store and sparked a wave of deepfakes, including a viral clip of CEO Sam Altman shoplifting GPUs.
Internally, the rollout has reignited a long-running debate inside OpenAI about how to balance safety with creative freedom.
A person familiar with internal strategy at the company said leadership views strict guardrails as essential, but also worries about stifling creativity or being perceived as censoring too much.
That tension remains unresolved.
OpenAI’s culture has long favored speed, often shipping new tools ahead of rivals and letting the public adapt in real time.
One former employee, who asked not to be named to discuss internal matters, told CNBC that during their tenure, OpenAI leadership had a pattern of prioritizing fast launches. That strategy was on full display after China’s DeepSeek released a powerful model at the end of last year that was cheaper and faster to build than anything out of Silicon Valley.
OpenAI responded within weeks, debuting two new models in what was widely viewed as a defensive move to preserve its lead.
But OpenAI has a key advantage: Its growing institutional muscle.
Once a scrappy research lab in San Francisco’s Mission District, the company has since become more structured, enabling it to spin up cross-functional teams more quickly and accelerate the development and deployment cycles for products like Sora.
OpenAI said Sora includes multiple layers of safeguards meant to prevent unsafe content from being generated, using prompt filtering and output moderation across video frames and audio transcripts. It bans explicit content, terrorist propaganda, and material promoting self-harm. The app also uses watermarks and bans likeness impersonation.
But some users have already found ways to skirt those protections.
Sora 2, the AI model powering OpenAI’s app, is a sharp improvement over the first version. The new system generates longer, more coherent clips that look strikingly real.
Multiple viral videos feature Altman after he granted permission for his likeness to be used on the platform, while others depict popular cartoon characters like Pikachu and SpongeBob SquarePants in unsettling roles.
The content has fueled criticism that OpenAI is once again moving faster than its own guardrails. Its use of copyrighted material — unless rights holders opt out — is consistent with the company’s current policy, though that approach is being challenged in court.
Altman has brushed off concerns, saying in a post on X that Sora is as much about transparency — showing the public what the technology can do — as it is about building commercial momentum to fund OpenAI’s broader ambitions around artificial general intelligence.
The launch comes amid intensifying competition. Meta rolled out Vibes last week, a new short-form AI video feed inside its Meta AI app. Google has Veo 3, while ByteDance and Alibabahave also debuted rival systems.
OpenAI, meanwhile, just committed to fresh spending of $850 billion, deepening its push into infrastructure and next-gen models.
Experts say the push into video isn’t just about drawing more users into the ecosystem with another sticky consumer app.
Professor Hao Li, a leading expert in video synthesis, told CNBC that most AI systems today are still trained on linguistic data like books and internet text. But to move toward general intelligence, he said, models need to learn from visual and audio information, much like a baby discovers the world through sight.
“We use AI to generate content to then train another model to perform better,” he said.
Li added that his lab already uses AI-generated video to enhance model performance, feeding synthetic data back into the system.
It’s part of a broader trend among researchers who see video generation as a way to simulate reality and help models reason more like humans.
Former OpenAI executive Zack Kass, whose forthcoming book “The Next Renaissance: AI and the Expansion of Human Potential” explores the societal implications of artificial intelligence, echoed that view.
On the broader question of how model makers should approach deployment, Kass argued that the trade-offs of releasing powerful technology early are worth it.
“There are two alternatives to building in the open: Not building at all, or building privately. And those alternatives, to me, are worse,” he told CNBC. “If we have a groundbreaking technology, I think people should know about it and use it so that we can all update to it.”