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Polymarket bets on Mark Carney win as Canadians head to the polls

Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.

As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country’s next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.

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Polymarket chances favor the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney over the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre to be the next Canadian Prime Minister. Source: Polymarket

The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and, by association, many in the Liberal Party, faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump’s then-proposed tariffs.

Following Trudeau’s resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” The US President also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. The policies seem to have led to increasing anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents booing the US national anthem at hockey games and making comparisons between the president and Poilievre.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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US Senate passes GAIN Act, prioritizing domestic AI and HPC chip sales

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US Senate passes GAIN Act, prioritizing domestic AI and HPC chip sales

US Senate passes GAIN Act, prioritizing domestic AI and HPC chip sales

The provision in the National Defense Authorization Act could create even more economic pain for the crypto mining industry if passed.

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Six global policy changes that affected crypto this week

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Six global policy changes that affected crypto this week

Six global policy changes that affected crypto this week

Major policy changes worldwide are shaping how the crypto industry will operate.

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Corbyn and Sultana have ‘patched things up’ – but what really happened?

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Corbyn and Sultana have 'patched things up' - but what really happened?

For decades he was the dissident backbencher, then unlikely Labour leader. She was a firebrand left-wing Labour MP with a huge online presence. To the left – on paper – it looked like the perfect combination.

Coupled with the support of four other independent MPs, it held the blueprints of a credible party. But ever since the launch of Your Party (working title) the left-wing movement has faced mockery and exasperation over its inability to look organised.

First, we learned Jeremy Corbyn’s team had been unaware of the exact timing of Zarah Sultana’s announcement that she would quit the Labour Party. Then a much bigger row emerged when she launched a membership drive linking people to sign up to the party without the full consent of the team.

It laid bare the holes in the structure of the party and pulled focus away from its core values of trying to be a party to counter Labour and Reform UK, while also drawing out some pretty robust language from their only woman MP calling the grouping a “sexist boys club”. It gave the impression that she was being sidelined by the four other male MPs behind the scenes.

This week, they tried to come together for the first time at a rally I attended in Liverpool and then, in quick succession, another event at The World Transformed conference the day after. But not everyone I spoke to who turned up to see the two heroes of the left found them all that convincing.

Jeremy Corbyn admitted to me that “there were some errors made about announcements and that caused a problem”. He said he was disappointed but that “we’re past that”.

Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana take part in a discussion on Your Party at The World Transformed conference in Manchester. Pic: PA
Image:
Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana take part in a discussion on Your Party at The World Transformed conference in Manchester. Pic: PA

Zarah Sultana said they were like Liam and Noel, who managed to “patch things up and have a very successful tour – we are doing the same”.

The problem is, it didn’t really explain what happened, or how they resolved things behind the scenes, and for some, it might have done too much damage already.

Layla signed up as a member when she first saw the link. It was the moment she had been waiting for after becoming frustrated with Labour. But she told me she found the ordeal “very unprofessional, very dishonest and messy”, and said she doesn’t want to be in a disorganised party and has lost trust in where her money will end up. She’s now thinking about the Greens. She said their leader, Zack Polanski “seemed like such a strong politician” with “a lot of charisma”.

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Jeremy Corbyn’s back – with Zarah Sultana and a new party. But is it a real threat to Labour, or just political theatre?

Since Polanski’s rise to power as leader, the Green Party has surged in popularity. According to a recent poll, they went up four points in just one week (following their conference). Voters, particularly on the left, seem to like his brand of “eco populism”.

While he has politely declined formally working in conjunction with Your Party publicly, he has said the “door is always open” to collaboration especially as he sees common goals between the two parties. Zarah Sultana said this weekend though that the Greens don’t describe themselves as socialists and that they support NATO which she has dubbed an “imperialist war machine”.

While newer coalitions may not be the problem for now, internal fissures might come sooner than they expect. Voters at the rally this weekend came with pretty clear concerns about some of the other independent MPs involved in Your Party.

The two heroes of the left fell out over a row over their party's paid membership system
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The two heroes of the left fell out over a row over their party’s paid membership system

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I asked Ayoub Khan if he considered himself left-wing. A question that would solicit a simple answer in a crowd like this. But he said his view was very simple, that he is interested in fighting for equality, fairness and justice: ‘We all know that different wards, different constituencies have different priorities and MPs should be allowed to represent the views of the communities they serve.” To him, that can sometimes mean voting against the private school tax and against decriminalising abortion.

The Your Party rally on Thursday night was packed, but the tone was subdued. People came full of optimism but they also wanted to make up their mind about the credibility of the new offering and to see the renewed reconciliation up close.

The organisers closed the evening off with John Lennon’s song, Imagine. That was apt, because until the party can get their act together, that’s all they’ll be doing.

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