Stanley Cup takeaways as Round 1 heats up: Who is poised to move on — and why
Round 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs is hitting the nitty-gritty stage, as elimination games will be coming from all corners of North America this week.
The storylines are many, from goaltenders being pulled and trying to regain their form to heavy hits stirring emotions even more than they already were.
ESPN reporters Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski identified their top takeaways as all 16 teams remain alive — at least for the time being.
Read more:
Full schedule
Intel on all 16 teams
Top 50 players
Wyshynski’s bracket
Contender flaws
Are Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets in trouble … again?
Even with their Game 4 loss Sunday to the St. Louis Blues, the Winnipeg Jets are tied in their series as they look to get out of the first round for the first time in three seasons. But things aren’t trending well for Winnipeg as two-time Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck again received an early exit.
In Game 3, Hellebuyck allowed six goals on 25 shots before being pulled, then gave up five goals on 18 shots Sunday. Watching how Hellebuyck would respond to being pulled in Game 3 was clearly a point of interest.
Every Western Conference series has seen one goalie have an early departure. This started with Stuart Skinner being removed in Game 2 in the Oilers’ 6-2 loss to the Los Angeles Kings, while Thursday saw both Hellebuyck and Vegas’ Adin Hill get yanked in their team’s defeats. It happened again Saturday with the Stars relieving Jake Oettinger to start the third period in their 4-0 loss to the Avalanche.
Hellebuyck’s recent history with trying to bounce back from consecutive playoff defeats has been an issue. After he won the opening game in last year’s first-round series, he and the Jets lost four straight. The same thing happened in 2023 when they faced the Golden Knights. In 2021, Hellebuyck lost all four of his starts against the Montreal Canadiens.
The last time Hellebuyck snapped a two-game losing streak in the playoffs came in 2019, when he guided the Jets to wins in Games 3 and 4 against, you guessed it, the Blues, who would go on to win the Stanley Cup that season. Hellebuyck needs to show he can turn things around — in a hurry. — Clark
There’s been no better “salt in the wound” moment in the 2025 postseason than Blues fans chanting “WE WANT CONNOR!” after Hellebuyck was pulled from Game 4 in the third period, having given up five goals on 18 shots.
Superior trolling. Winnipeg fans would be proud.
Why wouldn’t they want Hellebuyck back in the crease? He’s just the seventh goalie in NHL history to allow four or more goals in six straight road playoff games, a streak that includes series losses to Vegas and Colorado. He became the second reigning Vezina Trophy winner ever to be pulled in consecutive playoff games, joining the Flyers’ Ron Hextall in the 1988 divisional series.
Hellebuyck has a .817 save percentage and a 4.24 goals-against average in four playoff games. Over his last three postseasons, Hellebuyck has a 4-10 record with an .866 save percentage and a 4.27 goals-against average.
Over his last three NHL regular seasons, Hellebuyck has 121 wins in 187 games with a .922 save percentage and a 2.29 goals-against average. That guy hasn’t even come close to showing up in the playoffs statistically.
Yet anyone that’s watched the Blues’ 16-goal parade against the Jets knows not all of this is Hellebuyck’s fault. “You watch the replays of the goals that went in and there are deflections, screens, pucks bouncing off us and in,” defenseman Luke Schenn said.
Screening Hellebuyck has been the path to success for teams in the playoffs. Around half of the Blues goals have come with traffic in front of him.
“If there’s people getting to the net, we’ve got to get them out of there before they get their screens. We’ve gotta box out earlier. There’s a lot of coverage stuff,” Jets coach Scott Arniel said.
Hellebuyck is a victim of his own domination. We expect the guy considered to be the best goalie in the world to be able to fight through screens and cover for defensive breakdowns.
Arniel was clear that he’s “100% confident” in Hellebuyck in the playoffs. “There are things that we have to do to help him and he knows he has to do things to help us,” he said.
But Arniel also said that if Winnipeg is going to win two out of the next three games, “our best players have to be better than their best players.” And there’s no question that Jordan Binnington has been the better goalie in this series than Hellebuyck.
On Monday, the NHL will announce the finalists for the 2024-25 Vezina Trophy, which Hellebuyck has won twice and will probably win again in June. It’s the award given annually to the best goalie in the regular season. Connor Hellebuyck is in real danger of having his career defined by what he’s failed to do after those initial 82 games. — Wyshynski
Ottawa has life — until Toronto proves it can close
1-12.
That’s the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ record in playoff elimination games going back to 2017.
It’s an unflattering figure, just like the Leafs’ 0-1 record in this series in attempting to close out the Ottawa Senators.
There’s that old cliché that the final win of a series is the toughest to get. The Leafs have spent almost a decade proving that’s true. And Toronto certainly had its chances to sweep the Senators into summer mode in Game 4 on Saturday night. The Leafs had a four-minute power play in overtime, albeit without John Tavares available after he exited earlier to be assessed for a possible injury.
Still.
Toronto was 5-for-9 with the extra man in the first three games of the series; the Leafs were 0-for-4 on the power play in Game 4. They gave up a shorthanded goal to Shane Pinto in the first period to boot. Not ideal.
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Jake Sanderson sends Ottawa fans into a frenzy with Game 4 OT winner
Jake Sanderson celebrates with his teammates after netting the game-winning goal in overtime for the Senators vs. the Maple Leafs.
Now, Ottawa is due ample credit for how it persevered to earn an overtime victory. The Senators went up 2-0 in the first period, only to see that lead evaporate by the second. David Perron put Ottawa up again and the Leafs tied it to force the extra frame. The Senators could have shrunk in the face of that daunting four-minute power play (with or without Tavares) and instead they stood tall. And Jake Sanderson‘s goal gave Ottawa the chance to play on.
Have the scales tipped in Ottawa’s favor? The Senators have nothing to lose here; they have the luxury of playing loose. Toronto is saddled with expectations born of too many prior postseason disappointments. But this Leafs team is built differently, right? And so Toronto can’t — or won’t — let one demoralizing defeat turn into two, will it? — Shilton
Maybe don’t challenge, coaches?
In the regular season, coaches who challenged scoring plays for interference won more than they lost, with a 56% success rate on 126 challenges. Which means the risk — getting a delay of game penalty if they’re wrong — was worth it.
That’s an acceptable risk in an 82-game season. But in a seven-game playoff series, you’ve got to be sure — and so far in the 2025 postseason, coaches would have been better off not challenging.
The first challenge was a somewhat desperate one from Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch in Game 1 against the Kings. Defenseman Jake Walman was ruled to have shot the puck over the glass for a delay of game penalty. He was convinced that wasn’t the case, and the Oilers — trailing 5-3 at that point in the third period — backed up Walman by challenging the call. It was ruled there was “no conclusive evidence” that the puck went off the glass “after a thorough examination of all available replays.”
So Edmonton got a delay of game on top of a delay of game, although Los Angeles couldn’t convert on the ensuing 5-on-3 power play.
The other coaches weren’t as lucky. Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper unsuccessfully challenged goalie interference on Nate Schmidt‘s goal that gave Florida a 3-1 lead in Game 1. The league ruled Eetu Luostarinen was making a play on the loose puck in the crease before Schmidt’s goal, which by rule isn’t interference. The Lightning were given a delay of game penalty. Matthew Tkachuk scored 14 seconds into the ensuing power play to make it 4-1 and put the game out of reach.
But the most ill-conceived challenge of the playoffs was from Kings coach Jim Hiller in Game 3 against Edmonton, seeking to overturn an Evander Kane goal that made it 4-4 at 13:18 of the third period. I’m still trying to figure out what they saw that inspired the challenge, and why the Kings would gamble with giving Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl a chance to break the tie by handing them a power play — which they did, when Draisaitl assisted on Evan Bouchard‘s eventual game winner.
“We got a good look at it. We took plenty of time. We felt it was goalie interference, so we challenged it. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose on those. Tonight we lost, and it cost us big time. No other way around it,” Hiller said, stating the obvious.
So far in the playoffs, the cost has outweighed the benefit. — Wyshynski
Are the Golden Knights about to turn the corner?
Being a franchise in a championship window that already has produced a title is naturally going to spark a conversation about what can be done to win a second. For the Vegas Golden Knights? The whole has been greater than the sum of their parts, not that the parts themselves are to be taken lightly.
The Golden Knights won a Stanley Cup in 2023 by receiving contributions throughout their lineup. That’s exactly what happened Saturday in their 4-3 overtime win that was the difference between them being tied at 2-2 versus facing a consecutive first-round exit with an elimination game on home ice.
Look at how Vegas was able to win. Shea Theodore scored the opener on the power play with Nicolas Roy also scoring a power-play goal that tied it at 2-2. Adin Hill made the necessary saves that allowed the Golden Knights to navigate overtime before Ivan Barbashev scored the winning goal. All three goals were from players who hadn’t scored in the first three games of the series, while Hill rebounded from allowing four goals on 21 shots in Game 4.
Everything Barbashev, Hill, Roy and Theodore did speaks to how the Golden Knights can tap into their depth. Could Game 5 lead to similar results for star Jack Eichel and captain Mark Stone? Both players, who were held to no points entering Game 3, were also pointless in Game 4 but showed signs of promise considering they combined for 10 shots on goal. That’s the same number of shots they had in the first three games combined. — Clark
No love lost in the Battle of Florida
Of course it all starts with Matthew Tkachuk.
Florida’s feistiest forward already was giving Tampa Bay fits in their first-round series with three goals in the first three games. Then came another crushing blow — literally — when Tkachuk smacked Bolts forward Jake Guentzel at center ice and earned a game misconduct as Florida fell 5-1 in Game 3.
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Fracas ensues after Tkachuk’s late hit, Cirelli’s empty-netter
Matthew Tkachuk gets a five-minute major for a late hit prior to Anthony Cirelli’s empty-net goal.
Naturally, debate ensued over whether Tkachuk deserved supplemental discipline for the hit — Guentzel was in the process of passing the puck and had released it when Tkachuk made contact. There will be no suspension for Tkachuk — and how that decision will sit with the Lightning, well, we will find out in Game 4 on Monday night.
Players on both sides exchanged pleasantries following Tkachuk’s hit on Guentzel, and it was clear the physical ante was upped in more ways than one. The Lightning played a statement game Saturday, scoring five unanswered goals to get themselves back in the series. Now we can only wonder how the bad blood will seep into the rest of it.
Discipline is key in a long playoff run; it’s even more critical for Tampa Bay given the Panthers’ strong power play (30%) so far in the postseason. The Lightning getting that win and now being further bonded by the way Tkachuk leveled their leading playoff goal scorer adds new layers of intrigue to what lies ahead in this bout of Atlantic Division rivals. — Shilton
Everyone loves Tom Wilson (except those that hate him)
After their Game 4 win, Washington Capitals goalie Logan Thompson was asked how important teammate Tom Wilson was to the team’s success. Wilson was seated next to Thompson, who turned and grinned widely at the hulking forward.
“No need to make his head any bigger,” said Thompson, who then proceeded to further inflate it.
“He’s been huge for us. The heart and soul of this organization, right? When he’s making plays, big hits, we feed off that. Especially in our home rink, I think the whole building feeds off it. He’s a huge part of this team. We love him,” the goalie said, before expanding his arms to mimic Wilson’s head filling with praise.
Wilson deadpanned: “That’s it?”
Like Logan Thompson, there are many who love Tom Wilson. There are also legions of fans and opponents who loathe him for a history of injurious hits and other unsportsmanlike conduct. Montreal fans and players were not enamored with Wilson in Game 3 when he fought Josh Anderson in a brawl that spilled into the Capitals’ bench and then pretended to sob while calling out an unidentified Habs player as a whiner.
“Things escalated,” said Anderson after the game.
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Canadiens-Caps brawl spills into the bench at end of 2nd period
The Canadiens and Capitals close the second period with a massive brawl in which Josh Anderson and Tom Wilson spar into the bench.
Wilson was more controlled in Game 4 — by his own admission, he wanted to stay out of the box to make a difference on the ice and didn’t take a penalty in the game. In the third period, his impact was felt quite literally: Wilson demolished Montreal defenseman Alexandre Carrier with a center-ice check moments before the Capitals controlled the puck and Brandon Duhaime scored to tie the game at 2-2 with 13:21 left in regulation.
“It’s been a physical series both ways. Getting hit. Giving hits,” said Wilson, who added an empty-netter in the 5-2 win. “It was a big hit. The boys were able to score right after. That’s the way that hockey goes.”
Wilson has played in the postseason for the Capitals since 2012-13. He’s experienced the high of the Stanley Cup championship in 2018 and the lows of postseason collapses. It’s to Washington’s credit that they haven’t given oxygen to a Montreal upset bid, thanks to their Game 1 OT win on an Alex Ovechkin goal and their third-period comeback in Game 4 that gave them a 3-1 series lead.
“It’s a group that’s had different guys step up throughout the year. I don’t think there’s any panic when we’re down a goal. We believe in ourselves,” Wilson said. “We got it done. It’s really fun to come to the rink.”
No one’s scarier when he’s having fun than Tom Wilson. — Wyshynski
More to Landeskog’s Game 4 performance than just his goal
Any questions about how Gabriel Landeskog would fit into a Colorado Avalanche lineup that has dramatically changed since he last played nearly three years ago have been answered at various times this postseason. But in a 4-0 win over the Dallas Stars in Game 4 on Saturday, he provided a clear reminder of what the Avs had been missing.
Landeskog scored 11 goals and 22 points in 20 games when he led Colorado to the third Stanley Cup in franchise history in 2022. His goal and assist in Game 4 against the Stars pushed his career totals to 28 goals and 69 points in 71 postseason contests.
Part of what has allowed Landeskog to consistently find success within the Avs’ setup — whether scoring himself or setting up his teammates — is how he positions himself on the ice, from working in the corners to gain possession to finding a way to get in the slot. Those traits played a role in his one-timer from the slot, off a feed from Brock Nelson, that gave the Avs a 3-0 lead.
Yet the sequence that might have best summed up what Landeskog provides came on Samuel Girard‘s goal that gave Colorado a 4-0 advantage. Landeskog, who received a secondary assist, gave the puck to Nelson, who then found Girard. As Girard was getting ready to shoot, Landeskog went to the net front and battled with 6-foot-7 Stars defenseman Lian Bichsel to gain position and screen goalie Casey DeSmith.
Landeskog’s presence not only helped the Avs knot the series as the scene shifts to Dallas, it is a key element that could push Colorado onward as the playoffs continue. — Clark
Goalie clinic turned to controversy in Hurricanes-Devils
New Jersey’s run might already be done if not for goalie Jacob Markstrom. Carolina could hardly be this commanding if not for netminder Frederik Andersen.
That’s been a significant storyline in the series so far, how two top-tier goaltenders have held their respective teams in balance. In Game 4 on Sunday things took a turn, though, when Andersen was bowled over in his crease by Timo Meier and had to exit the game, being replaced by young Pyotr Kochetkov.
There was no penalty called on the play that sent Andersen to the locker room. And to add insult to injury, Meier turned around and scored on the incoming Kochetkov to narrow the Hurricanes’ lead to 3-2. Ouch.
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GK Frederik Andersen exits the game for the Hurricanes
Frederik Andersen exits the game after a collision, causing backup goalkeeper Pyotr Kochetkov to enter the game.
It’s no secret Andersen has had a rough go with injuries. He missed 39 games in the regular season following knee surgery and was finally appearing at full strength — and health — for the playoffs. Now his status is murky, and the Devils can take advantage — thanks in large part to the marvelous Markstrom.
New Jersey has had poor luck with its blueline health, playing without Brenden Dillon or Luke Hughes since Game 1 and losing Johnathan Kovacevic in Game 3, and it’s Markstrom who has made up for his club’s deficiencies. The veteran has stood tall against Carolina’s attack to give New Jersey every opportunity to take a lead — and hold it — but the Devils’ scoring woes (they had just five through the first three games) haven’t exactly supported Markstrom’s cause. No matter. The Devils goaltender has still produced an impressive .929 save percentage in the postseason, putting him just behind Andersen in that category atop the playoff leaderboard for starting goalies.
And Andersen has earned his place at the peak. He’s been rock solid for Carolina and closed the door on New Jersey time and again. Andersen’s heroics in Game 3 allowed the Hurricanes a chance to come back and win in double overtime. (His stop on Meier in the second period was particularly outstanding.)
The way these two have gone toe-to-toe is playoff goaltending at its best. We should be talking about who can sustain their excellence long enough to be the deciding factor in a series victory. Now it’s a question of who will be available for the Hurricanes going forward — Andersen or the upstart Kochetkov? The answer could have long-term implications for Carolina. — Shilton
Can the Oilers beat the curse of the Western Conference?
OK. Maybe “curse” is too strong a word in this case. However, being the team representing the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final has come with its fair share of issues over the last few postseasons.
It started in 2020 when the Stars won the Western Conference playing in the Edmonton bubble. They lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning and failed to make the playoffs the following season. Of course, there was no Western Conference champion during the 2020-21 season because of the pandemic.
Fast-forward to 2022. The Avalanche won the West and the Stanley Cup. But a year later, they were eliminated in the first round. In 2023, the Golden Knights captured their first title only to get knocked out in the first round in 2024. Entering the weekend, the Oilers were trailing 2-1 in their series against the Kings after losing the first two games in Southern California.
The Kings-Oilers series has been bizarre beyond the fact this is the fourth straight time they’ve played in the first round. A last-minute goal in a 6-5 thriller in Game 1 was followed up by the Oilers giving up six goals for the second consecutive game in a 6-2 loss, which was followed by another high-scoring contest with the Oilers winning 7-4 in Game 3. It’s a safe bet something else bizarre could happen, like the Oilers either falling prey to the curse or breaking it. — Clark
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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