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On the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City, factory workers at Dony Garment have been working overtime for weeks.

Ever since Donald Trump announced a whopping 46% trade tariff on Vietnam, they’ve been preparing for the worst.

They’re rushing through orders to clients in three separate states in America.

Sewing machines buzz with the sound of frantic efforts to do whatever they can before Mr Trump’s big decision day. He may have put his “Liberation Day” tariffs on pause for 90 days, but no one in this factory is taking anything for granted.

Staff have been working overtime
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Staff have been working overtime

Workers like Do Thi Anh are feeling the pressure.

“I have two children to raise. If the tariffs are too high, the US will buy fewer things. I’ll earn less money and I won’t be able to support my children either. Luckily here our boss has a good vision,” she tells me.

Do Thi Anh
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Do Thi Anh

That vision was crafted back in 2021. When COVID struck, they started to look at diversifying their market.

Previously they used to export 40% of their garments to America. Now it’s closer to 20%.

The cheery-looking owner of the firm, Pham Quang Anh, tells me with a resilient smile: “We see it as dangerous to depend on one or two markets. So, we had to lose profit and spend on marketing for other markets.”

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You asked, we listened, the Trump 100 podcast is continuing every weekday at 6am

That foresight could pay off in the months to come. But others are in a far more vulnerable state.

Some of Mr Pham’s colleagues in the industry export all their garments to America. If the 46% tariff is enforced, it could destroy their businesses.

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Doubts US will start making what Vietnam delivers

Down by the Saigon River, young couples watch on as sunset falls between the glimmering skyscrapers that stand as a testament to Vietnam’s miracle growth.

Cuong works in finance
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Cuong works in finance

Cuong, an affluent-looking man who works in finance, questions the logic and likelihood that America will start making what Vietnam has spent years developing the labour, skills and supply chains to reliably deliver.

“The United States’ GDP is so high. It’s the largest in the world right now. What’s the point in trying to get jobs from developing countries like Vietnam and other Asian nations? It’s unnecessary,” he tells me.

But the Trump administration claims China is using Vietnam to illegally circumvent tariffs, putting “Made in Vietnam” labels on Chinese products.

There’s no easy way to assess that claim. But market watchers believe Vietnam does need to signal its willingness to crack down on so-called “trans-shipments” if it wants to cut a deal with Washington.

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Vietnam can’t afford to alienate China

The US may also demand a major cutback in Chinese manufacturing in Vietnam.

That will be a much harder deal to strike. Vietnam can’t afford to alienate its big brother.

Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam
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Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam

Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam, is however cautiously optimistic.

“If Vietnam goes into these trade talks saying we will be a reliable manufacturer of the core products you need and the core products America wants to sell, the outcome could be good,” he says.

But the key question is just how much influence China will have on Vietnamese negotiators.

Anything above 10-20% tariffs would be intensively challenging

This moment is a huge test of Vietnam’s resilience.

Anything like 46% tariffs would be ruinous. Analysts say 10-20% would be survivable. Anything above, intensely challenging.

But this looming threat is also an opportunity for Vietnam to negotiate and grow. Not, though, without some very testing concessions.

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Budget 2025: Reeves vows to ‘defy’ gloomy forecasts – but faces income tax warning

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Budget 2025: Reeves vows to 'defy' gloomy forecasts - but faces income tax warning

Rachel Reeves has said she is determined to “defy” forecasts that suggest she will face a multibillion-pound black hole in next month’s budget.

Writing in The Guardian, the chancellor argued the “foundations of Britain’s economy remain strong” – and rejected claims the country is in a permanent state of decline.

Reports have suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast by about 0.3 percentage points.

Rachel Reeves. PA file pic
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Rachel Reeves. PA file pic

That means the Treasury will take in less tax than expected over the coming years – and this could leave a gap of up to £40bn in the country’s finances.

Ms Reeves wrote she would not “pre-empt” these forecasts, and her job “is not to relitigate the past or let past mistakes determine our future”.

“I am determined that we don’t simply accept the forecasts, but we defy them, as we already have this year. To do so means taking necessary choices today, including at the budget next month,” the chancellor added.

She also pointed to five interest rate cuts, three trade deals with major economies and wages outpacing inflation as evidence Labour has made progress since the election.

Speculation is growing that Ms Reeves may break a key manifesto pledge by raising income tax or national insurance during the budget on 26 November.

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Chancellor faces tough budget choices

Although her article didn’t address this, she admitted “our country and our economy continue to face challenges”.

Her opinion piece said: “The decisions I will take at the budget don’t come for free, and they are not easy – but they are the right, fair and necessary choices.”

Yesterday, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates reported that Ms Reeves is unlikely to raise the basic rates of income tax or national insurance, to avoid breaking a promise to protect “working people” in the budget.

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Tax hikes possible, Reeves tells Sky News

Sky News has also obtained an internal definition of “working people” used by the Treasury, which relates to Britons who earn less than £45,000 a year.

This, in theory, means those on higher salaries could be the ones to face a squeeze in the budget – with the Treasury stating that it does not comment on tax measures.

Read more: The taxes Reeves could raise

In other developments, some top economists have warned Ms Reeves that increasing income tax or reducing public spending is her only option for balancing the books.

Experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies have cautioned the chancellor against opting to hike alternative taxes instead, telling The Independent this would “cause unnecessary amounts of economic damage”.

Although such an approach would help the chancellor avoid breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge, it is feared a series of smaller changes would make the tax system “ever more complicated and less efficient”.

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Uncertainty for UK workers as Amazon to cut 14,000 jobs globally

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Uncertainty for UK workers as Amazon to cut 14,000 jobs globally

Roughly 14,000 corporate jobs are to go at tech giant Amazon, the company announced.

The impact on the 75,000-strong UK workforce is not immediately clear from the announcement, which said impacted people and teams would hear from leadership on Tuesday.

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A loss of 30,000 jobs had been anticipated based on reporting from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal.

Amazon workers’ union in the UK, GMB, had said, based on those numbers, that “it is almost inevitable that many UK workers will lose their jobs”.

“The fact that companies can accrue such astronomical profits to the point where its [founder, Jeff Bezos] can holiday in space and hire out entire cities for his vulgar wedding prior to casting aside loyal workers without a thought just underlines everything that’s wrong with a system that many feel is beyond repair,” the union said.

Why?

More on Amazon

The growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has been blamed for the cuts.

In a message sent to staff, Amazon’s senior vice president of people experience and technology, Beth Galetti, alluded to the criticism that the company is cutting jobs while profiting £19.2bn in results published in July.

“Some may ask why we’re reducing roles when the company is performing well,” she wrote.

“What we need to remember is that the world is changing quickly. This generation of AI is the most transformative technology we’ve seen since the Internet, and it’s enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before.”

Amazon is also continuing to unravel some of the hiring it made during the COVID-19 pandemic and has warned about reducing headcount and bureaucracy.

In May 2021, for example, the business said it was hiring more than 10,000 UK jobs.

The largest ever cut of 18,000 Amazon roles was announced in January 2023 when the consumer retail part of the business, including Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go, were scaled back.

It plans to replace more than half a million jobs with robots, automating 75% of its operations, according to the New York Times.

What next?

Those who lose their job will be prioritised for openings within Amazon to help “as many people as possible” find new roles, she said.

Hiring will continue, despite the latest cull, in “key strategic areas” while the online retail behemoth finds additional places we can “remove layers, increase ownership, and realise efficiency gains”.

Amazon said it is “shifting resources to ensure we’re investing in our biggest bets and what matters most to our customers’ current and future needs”.

In the UK, GMB said, “We will be supporting our members across Amazon as they face this uncertain future.”

It is to announce financial results for the third quarter of this year on Thursday evening, UK time.

Amazon UK has been contacted for comment.

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Shrinkflation: It’s not your imagination, these products are getting smaller

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Shrinkflation: It's not your imagination, these products are getting smaller

KitKats, Gaviscon, toothpaste, and even Freddo have all fallen victim to shrinkflation, consumer group Which? has found.

As families struggle with the cost of a trip to the supermarket, a survey of shoppers revealed how many products are getting smaller – while others are being downgraded with cheaper ingredients.

Among the examples are:

• Aquafresh complete care original toothpaste – from £1.30 for 100ml to £2 for 75ml at Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Ocado

• Gaviscon heartburn and indigestion liquid – from £14 for 600ml to £14 for 500ml at Sainsbury’s

• Sainsbury’s Scottish oats – from £1.25 for 1kg to £2.10 for 500g

• KitKat two-finger multipacks – from £3.60 for 21 bars to £5.50 for 18 bars at Ocado

• Quality Street tubs – from £6 for 600g to £7 for 550g at Morrisons

• Freddo multipacks – from £1.40 for five bars to £1.40 for four bars at Morrisons, Ocado and Tesco

Which? also received reports of popular treats missing key ingredients, as manufacturers seek to cut costs.

The amount of cocoa butter in white KitKats has fallen below 20%, meaning they can no longer actually be sold as white chocolate.

It comes after Penguin and Club bars lost their legal status as a chocolate biscuit, as they now contain more palm oil and shea oil than cocoa – as reported in the Sky News Money blog.

Which? retail editor Reena Sewraz called on supermarkets to be “more upfront” about price changes to help households “already under immense financial pressure” get better value.

While keeping track of the size and weight of products can be tricky, Which? has two top tips for detecting shrinkflation.

The first is to be wary of familiar products labelled as “new” – because the only thing that’s new may end up being the smaller size.

Meanwhile, the second is to pay attention to how much an item costs per 100g or 100ml, as this can be an easy way of finding out when prices change.

What have the companies said?

A spokeswoman for Mondelez International, which makes Cadbury products, said any change to product sizes are a “last resort”, but it’s facing “significantly higher input costs across our supply chain” – including for energy.

A Nestle spokesman said it was seeing “significant increases in the cost of coffee”, and some “adjustments” were occasionally needed “to maintain the same high quality and delicious taste that consumers know and love”.

“Retail pricing is always at the discretion of individual retailers,” they added.

A spokesman for the Food and Drink Federation also pointed to government policy, notably national insurance increases for employers and a new packaging tax.

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Is inflation reaching its peak?

Fresh food prices on the rise

The Which? report comes as latest figures showed fresh food costs 4.3% more than it did a year ago.

The increase in October, reported by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and market researchers NIQ, was up on the 4.1% year-on-year rise in September.

Overall food inflation was down slightly, though, to 3.7% from last month’s 4.2%.

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There has also been a slowdown in overall shop price inflation, which the BRC said was down to “fierce competition among retailers” ahead of Black Friday sales.

The annual shopping extravaganza will this year arrive in the same week as the chancellor’s budget, which is set for Wednesday 26 November.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson called on Rachel Reeves to help “relieve some pressures” keeping prices high, with the national insurance rise in last year’s budget having “directly contributed to rising inflation”.

“Adding further taxes on retail businesses would inevitably keep inflation higher for longer,” Ms Dickinson warned.

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